Alex Smith requires emergency surgery; recovery time 6-8 months

[Slateman]

14 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

I mean he doesn't play whole games either, so we could go back to 10 in this stupid argument.

 

What's not stupid to argue is Jordan Reed's inability to play a full season.

Agreed. On top of that, how many games does he play where he isn't fully healthy.

Sure, he plays 70% of the games, but of those games, only 25% of them are at his full capacity. The other games he's playing with a bruised something, or a strained something else.  That turns him from an elite talent to a rather below average tight end.

We need to replace him, simply because Vernon Davis is going to be 35 next season, and is likely not going to be able to play in the NFL anymore. Certainly not as an athletic, pass catching tight end. Not saying we need to burn a first round pick on a tight end, but there should be serious consideration given to grabbing an Irv Smith Jr or Caleb Wilson in the second or third round.

[turtle28]

24 minutes ago, Slateman said:

Agreed. On top of that, how many games does he play where he isn't fully healthy.

Sure, he plays 70% of the games, but of those games, only 25% of them are at his full capacity. The other games he's playing with a bruised something, or a strained something else.  That turns him from an elite talent to a rather below average tight end.

We need to replace him, simply because Vernon Davis is going to be 35 next season, and is likely not going to be able to play in the NFL anymore. Certainly not as an athletic, pass catching tight end. Not saying we need to burn a first round pick on a tight end, but there should be serious consideration given to grabbing an Irv Smith Jr or Caleb Wilson in the second or third round.

Lmao no player after the first Month of the season is at it near 100%.

80-90% of Jordan Reed & guys like Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff, CT & Ryan Kerrigan is better then a 100% player on the rest of our team.

There’s no reason to create an unnecessary hole in your football team. 

Cutting Reed would be as dumb of a decision as when we didn’t retain Cousins or Orakpo.  And, we still haven’t replaced Orakpo 4 years later with as good of a player despite the fact that we’ve drafted 3 OLBs and signed two OLbs in that time frame to try to do so.

You don’t create unnecessary holes on your team, especially when you can afford to keep the player easily under the salary cap and you won’t be able to replace them easily in the draft or free agency.

[Slateman]

25 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Lmao no player after the first Month of the season is at it near 100%.

80-90% of Jordan Reed & guys like Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff, CT & Ryan Kerrigan is better then a 100% player on the rest of our team.

There’s no reason to create an unnecessary hole in your football team. 

Cutting Reed would be as dumb of a decision as when we didn’t retain Cousins or Orakpo.  And, we still haven’t replaced Orakpo 4 years later with as good of a player despite the fact that we’ve drafted 3 OLBs and signed two OLbs in that time frame to try to do so.

You don’t create unnecessary holes on your team, especially when you can afford to keep the player easily under the salary cap and you won’t be able to replace them easily in the draft or free agency.

Ummm ... actually, we did replace Orakpo. First with Junior and then with Smith. That actually hasn't been that hard.

The problem is that the passing game is completely centered on Reed and will be for the forseeable future if you keep him.  And he's not 80-90% when he's here. He's much closer to 50% and has been almost non-existent in this offense this year. He's a big cap number next season with a small amount of dead space. Given his inability to stay healthy and his lack of production when's not on the injured list, you cannot rely on him and should look to cut him now and use the cap space accordingly.

Sorry but finding a reliable pass catching tight end is simply not that difficult in the draft. Will he be an uber-athlete like Reed? Probably not. But he'll show up to 14+ games and catch a few passes. Sorry, but I'll take a George Kittle/Austin Hooper over Reed, simply because they're able to play every game (or close to it).

[Woz]

2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

The question is that if 70% of Jordan Reed each season is better than having to replace him?  My position is that I’d rather have Reed play 70% of the season, sometimes as much as 88% of the season, than to have to use a high draft pick to replace him bc we need a young QB, a WR with #1 potential, possibility 2 starting ILBS, a LG and possibly a new starting CB & ROLB more than a TE.

Tight ends that have more receptions than Jordan Reed (54)

• Zach Ertz = 98  (2013 2.03 (35))
• Travis Kelce = 86  (2013 3.01 (63))
• George Kittle = 69  (2017 5.02 (146))
• Austin Hooper = 64  (2016 3.18 (81))
• Jared Cook = 61  (2017 free agent (originally: 2009 3.25 (89)))
•  Eric Ebron = 58  (2018 free agent (originally: 2014 1.10 (10))

Tight ends that have 40-54 receptions (~75% of his total, so a "poor man's Reed")

• Kyle Rudolph = 48  (2011 2.11 (43))
• David Njoku = 47  (2017 1.29 (29))
• Jimmy Graham = 46  (2018 free agent (originally: 2010 3.31 (95))
• Vance McDonald = 44  (2013 2.23 (55))
• Rob Gronkowski = 43  (2010 2.10 (42))
• Trey Burton = 40  (2018 free agent (originally: 2014 UDFA)

Tight ends that have more yards than Jordan Reed (558)

• Travis Kelce = 1159
• George Kittle = 1103
• Zach Ertz = 1016
• Jared Cook = 825
• Eric Ebron = 654
• Rob Gronkowski = 637
• OJ Howard = 565  (2017 1.19 (19))

Tight ends that have 420-557 yards (~75% of his total, so a "poor man's Reed)

• Austin Hooper = 557
• Jimmy Graham = 549
• Vance McDonald = 509
• David Njoku = 474
• Trey Burton = 470
• Kyle Rudolph = 470
• [Jesse James just misses the cut at 414  (2015 5.24 (160)]

Of the people listed who have been in the league at least as long as Reed has (so we avoid the question of people who have not had as many hits as Reed has had; for reference = 65 of 93 GP (69.9%), 35 of 93 GS (37.6%)):

• Jared Cook: 146 of 157 GP (93.0%), 74 of 157 GS (47.1%)
• Zach Ertz: 88 of 93 GP (94.6%), 53 of 93 GS (57.0%)
• Jimmy Graham: 134 of 141 GP (95.0%), 100 of 141 GS (70.9%)
• Rob Gronkowski: 112 of 141 GP (79.4%), 99 of 141 GS (70.2%)
• Travis Kelce: 77 of 93 GP (82.8%), 70 of 93 GS (75.3%)
• Vance McDonald: 70 of 93 GP (75.3%), 48 of 93 GS (51.6%)
• Kyle Rudolph: 109 of 125 GP (87.2%), 101 of 125 GS (80.8%)

 

Jordan Reed is not some sort of impossible-to-replace player. Yes, the team would have to invest a moderately high pick to replace Reed (2013 3.23 (85)), but it doesn't need to be an exorbitant price. He also is significantly less healthy than guys who would fall into his cohort in terms of skill and age, and that is likely not going to get any better as he ages.

[Slateman]

Reed, when he is fully healthy, is better than anyone you listed except, maybe, Kelce. He is Gronk level of ability.

The problem is that he is rarely 100% and even in a slightly reduced capacity, he is just another guy.

[Woz]

2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Lmao no player after the first Month of the season is at it near 100%.

Yes, but at the same time, his drop off for the first month of the season is significantly larger than his cohort's due to the repeated injuries he has suffered (and perhaps to a lack of the S&C staff making him stay on top of his rehab/recovery).

2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

80-90% of Jordan Reed & guys like Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff, CT & Ryan Kerrigan is better then a 100% player on the rest of our team.

That's more a condemnation of the rest of the talent on the roster than a glowing recommendation for those guys.

2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

There’s no reason to create an unnecessary hole in your football team. 

If you can only count on Reed for half of your starts in a given year, isn't there already a hole in your football team? By not addressing it, aren't you leaving an unnecessary hole?

2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Cutting Reed would be as dumb of a decision as when we didn’t retain Cousins or Orakpo.  And, we still haven’t replaced Orakpo 4 years later with as good of a player despite the fact that we’ve drafted 3 OLBs and signed two OLbs in that time frame to try to do so.

Bad decision to cut him? Yeah, probably. Trade him? No.

Cousins is a bad comp because his health didn't come into the equation. But let's look at Orakpo:

1. Orakpo was a great defensive end, where he could focus on one things: rushing the passer.
2. Orakpo was a bad 3-4 OLB because he didn't know how to handle players in coverage or how to deal with rushing from a stand up position.
3. They haven't been able to replace Orakpo because they have either drafted a 4-3 end who had similar tools as Orakpo (Preston Smith) or 3-4 OLBs who didn't have Orakpo's athleticism (Trent Murphy and Ryan Anderson).
4. This is because the 3-4 is a defense that the Redskins should not run.

2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

You don’t create unnecessary holes on your team, especially when you can afford to keep the player easily under the salary cap and you won’t be able to replace them easily in the draft or free agency.

1. It's a hole now with him on the team.
2. I've shown that you can replace him. Is it easy? No. But finding NFL quality talent in the draft is not easy in general. And there have been free agents.

[Woz]

Just now, Slateman said:

Reed, when he is fully healthy, is better than anyone you listed except, maybe, Kelce. He is Gronk level of ability.

The problem is that he is rarely 100% and even in a slightly reduced capacity, he is just another guy.

No arguments about the talent.

The problem is, as you said, his health. You cannot count on him for more than half a season.

[Skins212689]

So I would want a 2nd round pick for Reed nothing less than a 3rd. Agree or Disagree? I see the post about his health, this isn't to start more talk about that. I just want to know do others feel the asking price is reasonable. 

[Woz]

1 hour ago, Slateman said:

Ummm ... actually, we did replace Orakpo. First with Junior and then with Smith. That actually hasn't been that hard.

The problem is that the passing game is completely centered on Reed and will be for the forseeable future if you keep him.  And he's not 80-90% when he's here. He's much closer to 50% and has been almost non-existent in this offense this year. He's a big cap number next season with a small amount of dead space. Given his inability to stay healthy and his lack of production when's not on the injured list, you cannot rely on him and should look to cut him now and use the cap space accordingly.

Sorry but finding a reliable pass catching tight end is simply not that difficult in the draft. Will he be an uber-athlete like Reed? Probably not. But he'll show up to 14+ games and catch a few passes. Sorry, but I'll take a George Kittle/Austin Hooper over Reed, simply because they're able to play every game (or close to it).

               SHOWS UP?
          |         |         |
          |   YES   |    NO   |
T  -------+---------+---------+
A         |  BEST   |   ROLL  |
L    YES  |  CASE   |   THE   |
E         |SCENARIO |   DICE  |
N  -------+---------+---------+
T         |CAN WORK |  WASTE  |
E    NO   |  WITH   |   OF    |
D         |  THIS   |  SPACE  |
? --------+---------+---------+

1, 3
2, 4

in terms of desirability for coaches

[Woz]

Just now, Skins212689 said:

So I would want a 2nd round pick for Reed nothing less than a 3rd. Agree or Disagree? I see the post about his health, this isn't to start more talk about that. I just want to know do others feel the asking price is reasonable. 

I think you're overvaluing him. Talent wise, I agree, but his contract and his health are going to knock his value down a couple of rounds.

[Skins212689]

1 minute ago, Woz said:

I think you're overvaluing him. Talent wise, I agree, but his contract and his health are going to knock his value down a couple of rounds.

Thank you.

[turtle28]

2 hours ago, Slateman said:

Ummm ... actually, we did replace Orakpo. First with Junior and then with Smith. That actually hasn't been that hard.

The problem is that the passing game is completely centered on Reed and will be for the forseeable future if you keep him.  And he's not 80-90% when he's here. He's much closer to 50% and has been almost non-existent in this offense this year. He's a big cap number next season with a small amount of dead space. Given his inability to stay healthy and his lack of production when's not on the injured list, you cannot rely on him and should look to cut him now and use the cap space accordingly.

Sorry but finding a reliable pass catching tight end is simply not that difficult in the draft. Will he be an uber-athlete like Reed? Probably not. But he'll show up to 14+ games and catch a few passes. Sorry, but I'll take a George Kittle/Austin Hooper over Reed, simply because they're able to play every game (or close to it).

Oh, two players that couldn’t replace Orakpo, that’s what you have? We also drafted Murphy and Anderson too to try to upgrade our pass rush at ROLB.

Junior and his 3 sacks and two torn Achilles in 3 years? The guy nearly had as much achillies tears as he did sacks for us.

The worst season Orakpo ever had was PSmiths best as a pass rusher. That’s not replacing Orakpo.

Finding a TE that can catch is not an issue, finding a dynamic TE who can catch and be a better receiver than all of our WRs is nearly impossible to find.

Our LB corps since 2015 should’ve been:

ROLB: Orakpo

RILB: Kendricks or McKinney

LILB: Robinson, Riley or Foster

LOLB: Kerrigan

That would’ve been an awesome LB Corp the last 4 years.

[Woz]

I say this as someone who loves Kerrigan, but his scheme limitation (due to his hearing) is probably holding the defense back from having their best talent on the field. If he could play the right side, you could have

Allen - Ioannidis - Payne - Kerrigan
OR
Ioannidis - Allen - Payne - Kerrigan

(not sure who would be better suited as the LDE ... I think I like option #2 better personally)

[Skins212689]

29 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Oh, two players that couldn’t replace Orakpo, that’s what you have? We also drafted Murphy and Anderson too to try to upgrade our pass rush at ROLB.

Junior and his 3 sacks and two torn Achilles in 3 years? The guy nearly had as much achillies tears as he did sacks for us.

The worst season Orakpo ever had was PSmiths best as a pass rusher. That’s not replacing Orakpo.

Finding a TE that can catch is not an issue, finding a dynamic TE who can catch and be a better receiver than all of our WRs is nearly impossible to find.

Our LB corps since 2015 should’ve been:

ROLB: Orakpo

RILB: Kendricks or McKinney

LILB: Brown or Foster

LOLB: Kerrigan

That would’ve been an awesome LB Corp the last 4 years.

I think one of the biggest problems they've had is tryna make guys who play better with their hands in the dirt play OLBs. Kerrigan, Orakpo, Smith, and Gallete fit better as DE's IMO. Andre Carter and Orakpo both I believe got double digit sacks in the 4-3 scheme. 

[Woz]

Just now, Skins212689 said:

I think one of the biggest problems they've had is tryna make guys who play better with their hands in the dirt play OLBs. Kerrigan, Orakpo, Smith, and Gallete fit better as DE's IMO. 

*desperately wants to spam the like button and give this 1000s of +1s*