DoleINGout Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, AlNFL19 said: but if our away record is any indication we could be in trouble. its not. different team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VigilantZombie Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 7 hours ago, Starless said: How many TDs for Sony? I was thinking 4. He ended with 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elky Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This team plays so much better when they play with a chip on their shoulder. I hope KC is favored. Let's ******* go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoleINGout Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Elky said: I hope KC is favored. Well they are at home because they're the one seed and supposedly the odds are against the Pats again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Buck Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Congratulations on a very impressive victory today Patriots fans. While I admit that I will be cheering for the Chiefs next week (I'm a big new fan of Mahomes), I have a ton of respect for what you continue to accomplish as an organization an era of supposed "parity" in the league. What you have done during this run with the GOAT head coach and GOAT quarterback has been remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troy Brown Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 it was fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoleINGout Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 @Uncle Buck always been a friendly passerby of this forum. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoleINGout Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, DoleINGout said: @Uncle Buck always been a friendly passerby of this forum. Thank you. @vike daddy and @cddolphin too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, DoleINGout said: @vike daddy and @cddolphin too. go Pats, win the whole thing! i have no big interest in the LA Rams and i despise the Saints pretty much, so have at 'em! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 hours ago, DoleINGout said: Well they are at home because they're the one seed and supposedly the odds are against the Pats again. They are only favored by 3 though meaning they are evenly matched up a neutral field. Pats can easily win the game.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This is the old psycho Tom. Be aware, Chiefs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renndawg37 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 For what it's worth, from a Titans fan, I think you guys are going to win the Superbowl. Looked fantastic yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Literally might have a wind chill of -20 on Sunday night. I'll be glad to be watching from home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 My Analytics Review of the AFC Divisional Round Matchup against the Chargers (yay! more data tables): New England Patriots 41-28 Los Angeles Chargers WAR New England Los Angeles Total WAR +0.64 -0.40 Offense WAR +0.81 +0.21 Defense WAR -0.18 -0.61 ST WAR +0.01 0.00 Pass O WAR +0.14 +0.09 Rush O WAR +0.67 +0.12 Pass D WAR -0.06 -0.11 Rush D WAR -0.12 -0.50 Win Chance* 85.50% 14.50% A couple things to unpack here. First of all, WAR is pretty straightforward: the Offense WAR is the total WAR added by the offense (over average), the defense added by the defense (over average), and so on. Win Chance (last row) represents the likelihood of victory for each team given the level of play they registered during the game (i.e. if they played 1000 times with the Patriots playing roughly as well as they did and the Chargers roughly as poorly, the Patriots would win 855 times). A lot of the Chargers' numbers, like their offense WAR numbers, were inflated by their 3 garbage-time touchdown drives. New England Patriots WAR Report Patriots Passing WAR Leaders QB Tom Brady +0.14 Patriots Rushing WAR Leaders RB Sony Michel (MVP) +0.49 RB Rex Burkhead +0.23 WR Julian Edelman 0.00 WR Cordarrelle Patterson 0.00 FB James Develin -0.02 QB Tom Brady -0.03 Patriots Receiving WAR Leaders WR Phillip Dorsett +0.12 WR Julian Edelman +0.06 TE Rob Gronkowski +0.02 RB James White 0.00 RB Sony Michel (MVP) 0.00 RB Rex Burkhead -0.01 WR Cordarrelle Patterson -0.02 WR Chris Hogan -0.03 One thing to say here: a player's WAR in this case isn't WAR in the traditional sense, as in added by the player and only the player, but is the WAR added on plays where the player touched the ball (or was targeted on a pass). It is NOT separated from offensive line, QB play, defense, play-calling, or whatever. This is also true for the following table: Los Angeles Chargers WAR Report Chargers Passing WAR Leaders QB Phillip Rivers +0.09 Chargers Rushing WAR Leaders RB Melvin Gordon +0.13 RB Justin Jackson -0.01 Chargers Receiving WAR Leaders TE Antonio Gates +0.10 WR Tyrell Williams +0.04 TE Virgil Green +0.02 RB Justin Jackson 0.00 WR Keenan Allen -0.01 WR Mike Williams -0.01 RB Melvin Gordon -0.01 WR Travis Benjamin -0.01 TE Hunter Henry -0.01 RB Austin Ekeler -0.02 None of these Chargers numbers are great, but the crazy thing is that they're really inflated by garbage-time performance. Otherwise, it's safe to say they would mostly be far in the negatives. Sony Michel (+0.49 total WAR) being the game MVP bodes very well for an AFC Championship Game that could be played in 10 degree to below-zero weather, meaning a lot of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.