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DoleINGout

GameDay Thread: Patriots vs. Chargers

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7 minutes ago, AlNFL19 said:

but if our away record is any indication we could be in trouble.

its not. different team.

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This team plays so much better when they play with a chip on their shoulder. I hope KC is favored.

Let's ******* go!

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4 minutes ago, Elky said:

I hope KC is favored.

Well they are at home because they're the one seed and supposedly the odds are against the Pats again.

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Congratulations on a very impressive victory today Patriots fans.  While I admit that I will be cheering for the Chiefs next week (I'm a big new fan of Mahomes), I have a ton of respect for what you continue to accomplish as an organization an era of supposed "parity" in the league.  What you have done during this run with the GOAT head coach and GOAT quarterback has been remarkable. 

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9 hours ago, DoleINGout said:

Well they are at home because they're the one seed and supposedly the odds are against the Pats again.

They are only favored by 3 though meaning they are evenly matched up a neutral field. Pats can easily win the game..

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For what it's worth, from a Titans fan, I think you guys are going to win the Superbowl. Looked fantastic yesterday. 

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My Analytics Review of the AFC Divisional Round Matchup against the Chargers (yay! more data tables):

New England Patriots 41-28 Los Angeles Chargers

WAR New England Los Angeles
Total WAR +0.64 -0.40
Offense WAR +0.81 +0.21
Defense WAR -0.18 -0.61
ST WAR +0.01 0.00
Pass O WAR +0.14 +0.09
Rush O WAR +0.67 +0.12
Pass D WAR -0.06 -0.11
Rush D WAR -0.12 -0.50
Win Chance* 85.50% 14.50%

A couple things to unpack here. First of all, WAR is pretty straightforward: the Offense WAR is the total WAR added by the offense (over average), the defense added by the defense (over average), and so on. Win Chance (last row) represents the likelihood of victory for each team given the level of play they registered during the game (i.e. if they played 1000 times with the Patriots playing roughly as well as they did and the Chargers roughly as poorly, the Patriots would win 855 times). A lot of the Chargers' numbers, like their offense WAR numbers, were inflated by their 3 garbage-time touchdown drives.

New England Patriots WAR Report
Patriots Passing WAR Leaders
QB Tom Brady +0.14
Patriots Rushing WAR Leaders
RB Sony Michel (MVP) +0.49
RB Rex Burkhead +0.23
WR Julian Edelman 0.00
WR Cordarrelle Patterson 0.00
FB James Develin -0.02
QB Tom Brady -0.03
Patriots Receiving WAR Leaders
WR Phillip Dorsett +0.12
WR Julian Edelman +0.06
TE Rob Gronkowski +0.02
RB James White 0.00
RB Sony Michel (MVP) 0.00
RB Rex Burkhead -0.01
WR Cordarrelle Patterson -0.02
WR Chris Hogan -0.03

One thing to say here: a player's WAR in this case isn't WAR in the traditional sense, as in added by the player and only the player, but is the WAR added on plays where the player touched the ball (or was targeted on a pass). It is NOT separated from offensive line, QB play, defense, play-calling, or whatever. This is also true for the following table:

Los Angeles Chargers WAR Report
Chargers Passing WAR Leaders
QB Phillip Rivers +0.09
Chargers Rushing WAR Leaders
RB Melvin Gordon +0.13
RB Justin Jackson -0.01
Chargers Receiving WAR Leaders
TE Antonio Gates +0.10
WR Tyrell Williams +0.04
TE Virgil Green +0.02
RB Justin Jackson 0.00
WR Keenan Allen -0.01
WR Mike Williams -0.01
RB Melvin Gordon -0.01
WR Travis Benjamin -0.01
TE Hunter Henry -0.01
RB Austin Ekeler -0.02

None of these Chargers numbers are great, but the crazy thing is that they're really inflated by garbage-time performance. Otherwise, it's safe to say they would mostly be far in the negatives.

Sony Michel (+0.49 total WAR) being the game MVP bodes very well for an AFC Championship Game that could be played in 10 degree to below-zero weather, meaning a lot of runs.

Edited by AlNFL19

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