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Sooners' Kyler Murray officially declares for NFL draft

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A couple of us in the Redskins forum believe that Bruce Allen may seriously consider taking Murray, as it would provide a big name to provide "hope" and "excitement" back to a fan base that's seen both drained out over the past three years.  I don't know all that much about Murray, but I do know that taking a player for those reasons hardly ever works out well.  

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On 1/11/2019 at 8:24 AM, Broncofan said:

4 years in the minors though is way too long for a college top half Rd1 position player.   4 years is what HS or international 16+ year olds get, or pitchers from either rank (they take longer).  College bats now are normally up within 2 years - some of them are up with only 1 season in the minors.   Now, he still has to do that time, but the expected time interval is wrong for his case - look at Alex Bregman / Ian Happ / Michael Conforto / Trea Turner.   College bats are taken for the fact they're readier to help at a MLB level far sooner than HS players.

Remember that Murray isn't looking at this like he's not going to be elite either way.  We look at it from the average-player / average-QB perspective.   He's not going to be a 40-HR guy, but he's thinking "I'll be a .280+, 15 HR / 40-50 SB dynamo (more like .260 but this is his perspective)" - and he'll play for 10-12+ seasons if he sticks.   Now, of course, he thinks "hey I can play 10+ years as a QB too".    Honestly, the argument for $ either way can be made - if he flames out, there's more $ to be had in football with a late Rd1 pick - but keep in mind, if he's a Day 2 pick, the $ is still less too.    Obviously, if he's a top 15 pick, there's more $ up front for football.

Like I said before 1 month ago, there are reasons why Murray will choose football over baseball.   But the $ argument shouldn't sway him, not if he is of the mindset he's going to make it to the MLB if he sticks (and the history for top-10 draft picks, and college ones at that, is uniformly the case, it's just a matter of how long - college picks taking a lot less time than HS/16-year international signings).   You can make the argument either way, given the different outcomes - but using the college Rd1 bat career trajectory, spending 4 years in the minors isn't accurate.    

I can see why Murray will choose football over baseball.  He thinks he will succeed either way.   So it's a matter of what he prefers.  The bigger Q IMO is what teams are willing to pick him capital-wise.  It's such a bad top-end class, I get the Rd1 talk, but man, I don't see it. 

Meant to get back to you sooner, but couldn't find this post.

In terms of developmental curve, he's closer to a HS player than he is a 3rd year college player.  Most HS players are playing year round ball where as he's been splitting time between football and baseball, while college players are usually only focused on one sport.  So there figures to be some growing pains there.  Andrew Benintendi spent 2 years in the minors, but he never struggled.  You're comparing guys who are viewed as players who were close to MLB-ready coming out of college and comparing it to a guy whose really only had one year of college success.  It's 3 years on average, and that's assuming people aren't trying to manipulate his arbitration clock.  He needs the seasoning, so he's going to spend at least 3 years in the minors minimum.  I'd be beyond surprised if he got up before that.

It's really just a basic economics argument at this point.  Last year, Mason Rudolph signed a 4 year, $3.9M contract as the 76th overall pick.  Last year, P.J. Hall got 4 years, $4.7M as the 57th overall pick.  Figure in some inflation, and you're probably looking at roughly the same as the 3 years of development in the minors and the first year of minimum salary, and what he'll get as a minimum salary as a rookie.  The problem is at that point, Kyler Murray is ready to sign a new deal if he's in the NFL where as he's still got two years of minimum salaries if he's in baseball.   The only way he doesn't make more money in the NFL is if he falls hard in the draft.  And given the shortage of quality QBs in the league, that seems HIGHLY unlikely.

He gets more money, and he gets money quicker if he chooses football.  And I'm pretty sure he's said that football is his preferred sport.  You don't have to see it, we've seen QBs get over-drafted year after year.

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9 minutes ago, seminoles1 said:

I want Arizona to trade Rosen and draft Murray.

As a Packers fan, I'd be intrigued by taking a gamble on Rosen.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

As a Packers fan, I'd be intrigued by taking a gamble on Rosen.

You have Kizer give other teams with an aging QB a chance at him. 

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21 hours ago, BaltimoreTerp said:

Neither hold a candle to USC legend Kliff Kingsbury 

But still not as impressive as Belichick with the Jets

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21 hours ago, kyle21121 said:

You have Kizer give other teams with an aging QB a chance at him. 

Kizer < Rosen.

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