By the numbers - how cap % dictates the holes on our roster

[Brit Pack]

I’m a firm believer you put your money in what you value. I think it works the same for NFL teams. Having a look at the current 2019 roster of the Packers highlights some key points in terms of money and percentage of cap allocated to individuals and positional groups.

Overall I would say this roster might have some promising young players from the last draft and from holdover from TT’s reign but it is severely lacking in veteran players especially on the defensive side of the ball.

So we have QB1 accounting for 13.47% of the cap, which is actually less than what Tom Brady will account for the Pats in ‘19, and interestingly enough this season as well Rodgers had a lower cap hit than Brady.

Next we got what I would class as solid/good/great performers who will be around for at least the next couple of seasons and who are your core players going forward – Bakh, Adams, Linsley and to a lesser extent Lane Taylor. In 2019 Bhak has the 3^rd highest cap number on the current roster at 7.22%, Adams 5^th highest cap at 5.51%, Linsley 4.14% of cap and 8^th highest paid player, and then finally we got Lane Taylor as our tenth highest paid player in terms of percentage of cap at 2.77%.

This group of players is your main boys to build on. Having a look at this these guys they are all offence players only and in reality you want a few more players that account for this solid core who are tied down for the next couple of seasons.

The next bunch of guys are solid as well but on the *** ends of their career, or approaching that and/or are coming to the end of their deals. Graham our 4^th highest cap player at 6.44%, Daniels and Bulaga account for 5.44% and 4.20% of the cap at 6^th and 7^th positions respectfully. Then we got Tramon 9^th highest cap at 3.24% and Crosby 11^th highest cap at 2.77%.  

These are the positions you want to be drafting now in ’19 in whatever round i.e. primarily RT, TE, DL. So I would look out for those guys getting selected possibly highly for the Packers so that in their rookie years they can contribute and ultimately grow into starters after that. Williams looks like a good cap cut here the others are good to stick around.

Going into free agency I would be very surprised if we didn’t spend heavily on defensive talent. Currently we only have Daniels as a veteran who accounts for a decent amount of cap at 5.44% then a big drop to other players who are good but they are all still on their rookie deals:  Kenny Clark at 1.51% of cap, Jaire at 1.39%, Fackrell 1.13%, Lowry and Martinez both at 1.09%. Kevin King 0.98. There are no players between Daniels at 5.44% and Kenny Clark at 1.51% who are decent contributors on defence.

You want a few players that account for 2% to 5% of cap per se to fill out this part of the roster. This by the numbers is the weakest spot on our team. We might get a couple vets here with Breeland and Mo Wilk if they come back but I feel you need more. For comparison's sake the 2018 Pats roster had 10 defensive players who accounted 2.18% to 1.13% of the cap. We need players like that. For reference those players were Clayborn, Chung, Harmon, Van Noy, Guy, Jason McCourtney, Brown, Ebner, Trey Flowers and Danny Shelton. On top of that the Pats paid for three high priced players on defence Gilmore at 4.93% of cap, Hightower 5.38% and Devin McCourtney 6.62%.

Finally, we do have some promising WRs in Allison, ESB and MVS all on very cheap contracts, so maybe a vet signing here would help. Same with RB we have Jones and Williams, on cheap deals so maybe a vet could come in here too.

The only other hole that I would say based off the numbers assigned by cap is RG. Look for one of those guys in free agency too.

So in summary:

Desperate need for more talent through FA for defence, we are so depleted there it ain’t funny. We can draft defensive players but they will be more for the future it would be foolhardy to believe they can plug the holes now.

Look to draft TE, RT, DL to groom for the future.

On offence FA for RG and possibly WR and RB as veteran help.

And we need to cut Perry as June 1^st, he will be the second highest paid player on the roster in’19 and accounts for 7.34% of the cap.

[SSG]

Finally, just finally we can get rid of the arguement that you'll "never" win a Super Bowl when you are paying your QB over 12% of your salary cap. 

[Brit Pack]

39 minutes ago, SSG said:

Finally, just finally we can get rid of the arguement that you'll "never" win a Super Bowl when you are paying your QB over 12% of your salary cap. 

Brady's cap hit in '18 was 12.21% and this coming year will be 14.06%. I think the argument was something around the 13.4% mark though, either which way a ridiculous one.

[jleisher]

Do either one of you guys, or anybody know how the guaranteed money thing works for FA's?  Here's an example, let's say we sign FA #1 to a 6yr/$80m contract and $20m is guaranteed.  So, would the cap hit be 6yrs @ $60m, so year ones cap could be say $7m?  

[rcon14]

6 minutes ago, jleisher said:

Do either one of you guys, or anybody know how the guaranteed money thing works for FA's?  Here's an example, let's say we sign FA #1 to a 6yr/$80m contract and $20m is guaranteed.  So, would the cap hit be 6yrs @ $60m, so year ones cap could be say $7m?  

So it works like this... let''s say a FA signs that 6 year 80M contract with 20M guaranteed. How this contract is actually structured is a 6 year 60 M salary contract w/ a 20M signing bonus. The signing bonus is prorated over the length of the contract with an equal amount hitting the cap each year. Now, as far as what the cap hit for a particular year is... that depends on the contract specifics (other bonuses, how the salary is laid out year over year) so it's actually hard until we get contract specifics to know what the cap hits are going to be.

[jleisher]

2 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

So it works like this... let''s say a FA signs that 6 year 80M contract with 20M guaranteed. How this contract is actually structured is a 6 year 60 M salary contract w/ a 20M signing bonus. The signing bonus is prorated over the length of the contract with an equal amount hitting the cap each year. Now, as far as what the cap hit for a particular year is... that depends on the contract specifics (other bonuses, how the salary is laid out year over year) so it's actually hard until we get contract specifics to know what the cap hits are going to be.

Thank you!  

[squire12]

1 hour ago, rcon14 said:

So it works like this... let''s say a FA signs that 6 year 80M contract with 20M guaranteed. How this contract is actually structured is a 6 year 60 M salary contract w/ a 20M signing bonus. The signing bonus is prorated over the length of the contract with an equal amount hitting the cap each year. Now, as far as what the cap hit for a particular year is... that depends on the contract specifics (other bonuses, how the salary is laid out year over year) so it's actually hard until we get contract specifics to know what the cap hits are going to be.

the contract can be structured any way.   Parts of the base salary and roster bonus can be guaranteed. 

[rcon14]

30 minutes ago, squire12 said:

the contract can be structured any way.   Parts of the base salary and roster bonus can be guaranteed. 

Yep, this adds a whole other wrinkle. Really, NFL contracts are so difficult to determine good/bad or what the hits are in particular years until we know the intricate details.

[OneTwoSixFive]

3 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

These are the positions you want to be drafting now in ’19 in whatever round i.e. primarily RT, TE, DL. So I would look out for those guys getting selected possibly highly for the Packers so that in their rookie years they can contribute and ultimately grow into starters after that. Williams looks like a good cap cut here the others are good to stick around.

I'd go for Edge, OT,  FS, early,  followed by TE, G, RB.  DL is nice to get (and there are good ones this year, if you go for one at #12) but the need is not as high as Edge/OT/FS. 

Of course, without knowing exactly who is available with each pick, you don't know what best value is,  but there is a decent chance to get solid value at OT and Edge with the two first round picks. A safety with the second pick is less certain, especially if you want a FS rather than a SS, it may be better to go TE, then FS,  depending not only on who is available, but also who you think can do a solid job at FS. There are some conflicting opinions about the talent level, the speed, the tackling and the instincts of the various  prospects.  someone like Thornhill or Rapp as Safety, or Irv Smith as TE are possible at #44. If you want a TE later and a guard a little earlier, then you can still get a solid TE, just not one that can stretch the seam that much.

[gopackgo27]

Good stuff, thanks for this.

[Brit Pack]

1 hour ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

I'd go for Edge, OT,  FS, early,  followed by TE, G, RB.  DL is nice to get (and there are good ones this year, if you go for one at #12) but the need is not as high as Edge/OT/FS. 

Of course, without knowing exactly who is available with each pick, you don't know what best value is,  but there is a decent chance to get solid value at OT and Edge with the two first round picks. A safety with the second pick is less certain, especially if you want a FS rather than a SS, it may be better to go TE, then FS,  depending not only on who is available, but also who you think can do a solid job at FS. There are some conflicting opinions about the talent level, the speed, the tackling and the instincts of the various  prospects.  someone like Thornhill or Rapp as Safety, or Irv Smith as TE are possible at #44. If you want a TE later and a guard a little earlier, then you can still get a solid TE, just not one that can stretch the seam that much.

I feel the need for Edge and FS (as well as ILB)  has to come from FA not from the draft.

If we are expecting rookies to come in straight away and change the fortunes of our defence then I feel we'll be in a for a major let down. More than anything the one thing I really like about the Pats is that they bring a multitude of role players guys like Kyle Van Noy, Danny Shelton or Adrain Clayborn etc. They don't break the bank but they all contribute.

I don't want us to get into the draft trying to fill needs. On defence there is such a big void from 5.44% of cap for Daniels and no one (excluding T.Williams who should get cut) until you get to a Kenny Clark who is on 1.51% of cap and on a rookie deal. There are no other players on defence that sit within those cap levels. That means all of our contributors on defence are players with 4 years of experience of less. While we need rookies to constantly develop the roster we badly need veteran players to address this major weakness. We can't rely on a new bunch of rookies to fix this defence from a talent standpoint.

[rcon14]

9 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

I feel the need for Edge and FS (as well as ILB)  has to come from FA not from the draft.

If we are expecting rookies to come in straight away and change the fortunes of our defence then I feel we'll be in a for a major let down. More than anything the one thing I really like about the Pats is that they bring a multitude of role players guys like Kyle Van Noy, Danny Shelton or Adrain Clayborn etc. They don't break the bank but they all contribute.

I don't want us to get into the draft trying to fill needs. On defence there is such a big void from 5.44% of cap for Daniels and no one (excluding T.Williams who should get cut) until you get to a Kenny Clark who is on 1.51% of cap and on a rookie deal. There are no other players on defence that sit within those cap levels. That means all of our contributors on defence are players with 4 years of experience of less. While we need rookies to constantly develop the roster we badly need veteran players to address this major weakness. We can't rely on a new bunch of rookies to fix this defence from a talent standpoint.

I think in an ideal world, they'd be looking at one EDGE in FA and another at 12 or 30 (probably 12).

[squire12]

@jleisher

Spotrac has some of this information in their contract on each player

When roster bonus is due each year, how much of a base salary is guaranteed, etc.  

[AlexGreen#20]

5 hours ago, jleisher said:

Do either one of you guys, or anybody know how the guaranteed money thing works for FA's?  Here's an example, let's say we sign FA #1 to a 6yr/$80m contract and $20m is guaranteed.  So, would the cap hit be 6yrs @ $60m, so year ones cap could be say $7m?  

The signing bonus, which typically is synonomous with "guaranteed money" is pro-rated over the first 5 years of the contract, or the contract duration, whichever is longer.

If you signed a player to a 6/80 million dollar contract with 10 million in base salary, every year of the deal, the cap hits would break down as such:

Year 1: 14

Year 2: 14

Year 3: 14

Year 4: 14

Year 5: 14

Year 6: 10

Again, this assumes that the base salary remains constant at 10/year, which rarely happens. Usually it's increasing every year, so a typical contract of those numbers would be something like:

Year 1: 11.5 (7.5 Base + 4 Pro Rated Bonus)

Year 2: 12.5 (8.5 Base + 4 Pro Rated Bonus)

Year 3: 13.5 (9.5 Base + 4 Pro Rated Bonus)

Year 4: 14.5 (10.5 Base + 4 Pro Rated Bonus)

Year 5: 15.5 (11.5 Base + 4 Pro Rated Bonus)

Year 6: 12.5 (12.5 Base + 0 Pro Rated Bonus)

 

 

[jleisher]

7 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

The signing bonus, which typically is synonomous with "guaranteed money" is pro-rated over the first 5 years of the contract, or the contract duration, whichever is longer.

If you signed a player to a 6/80 million dollar contract with 10 million in base salary, every year of the deal, the cap hits would break down as such:

Year 1: 14

Year 2: 14

Year 3: 14

Year 4: 14

Year 5: 14

Year 6: 10

Again, this assumes that the base salary remains constant at 10/year, which rarely happens. Usually it's increasing every year, so a typical contract of those numbers would be something like:

Year 1: 11.5 (7.5 Base + 4 Pro Rated Bonus)

Year 2: 12.5 (8.5 Base + 4 Pro Rated Bonus)

Year 3: 13.5 (9.5 Base + 4 Pro Rated Bonus)

Year 4: 14.5 (10.5 Base + 4 Pro Rated Bonus)

Year 5: 15.5 (11.5 Base + 4 Pro Rated Bonus)

Year 6: 12.5 (12.5 Base + 0 Pro Rated Bonus)

 

 

Thanks!