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Conklin’s 5th year option declined

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5 minutes ago, dtait93 said:

My whole waste premise is based around him not having a good enough 2019-20 to be re-signed. If the scenario you gave presented itself it wouldn't be a waste because he will have played his way out of what we can afford. Getting 2 good years out of the number 8 pick only for us to to send him off to FA because he isn't worth a second contract is a waste in my book. It's a double and triple fold waste because we used 2 picks to move up and get him.

For the sake of the argument, I've looked up every 8th overall pick in the Draft since 2010 and prior to Conklin (since for the most recent ones it's obviously early to tell). Here they are:

2010: Rolando McClain, played 3 seasons for the Raiders and was waived afterwards. Bust.

2011: Jake Locker. We know how that turned out.

2012: Ryan Tannehill. We know a little something about how this turned out as well. Had some decent years and looked for a while like he was on the verge of putting it all together, but never did, then hit some tough luck with injuries. Perhaps not a bust in the truest sense of the word, but ended up being traded for basically a 4th round pick after 6 seasons played in the league.

2013: Tavon Austin. Don't think this requires much explanation, pretty obvious bust.

2014: Justin Gilbert. Played in 23 games over two years, then traded for a sixth round pick. One more year before he was released and now completely out of the league.

2015: Vic Beasley. One good year out of four in the league. So far a bust, especially considering the expectations.

Obviously that's not every Draft ever, so you could argue it's a small sample size. But at least recent history proves that it's alright to have high expectations for an 8th overall pick, but you're likely to miss more often than not. It's just how the game goes. Out of all those six players, (okay, Beasley might have a case) only one has provided more value to their teams than Conklin, and that one player is now Mariota's backup. 

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2 minutes ago, Andrei01 said:

For the sake of the argument, I've looked up every 8th overall pick in the Draft since 2010 and prior to Conklin (since for the most recent ones it's obviously early to tell). Here they are:

2010: Rolando McClain, played 3 seasons for the Raiders and was waived afterwards. Bust.

2011: Jake Locker. We know how that turned out.

2012: Ryan Tannehill. We know a little something about how this turned out as well. Had some decent years and looked for a while like he was on the verge of putting it all together, but never did, then hit some tough luck with injuries. Perhaps not a bust in the truest sense of the word, but ended up being traded for basically a 4th round pick after 6 seasons played in the league.

2013: Tavon Austin. Don't think this requires much explanation, pretty obvious bust.

2014: Justin Gilbert. Played in 23 games over two years, then traded for a sixth round pick. One more year before he was released and now completely out of the league.

2015: Vic Beasley. One good year out of four in the league. So far a bust, especially considering the expectations.

Obviously that's not every Draft ever, so you could argue it's a small sample size. But at least recent history proves that it's alright to have high expectations for an 8th overall pick, but you're likely to miss more often than not. It's just how the game goes. Out of all those six players, (okay, Beasley might have a case) only one has provided more value to their teams than Conklin, and that one player is now Mariota's backup. 

How many of those picks also costed their respective teams a 2nd and 3rd round pick to acquire though? Busting is one thing, but busting (again this is assuming he doesn't bounce back and becomes an injury bust) after you used a 2nd and 3rd rounder to acquire that player is another thing. That's the problem.

Also, would you consider Jake Locker a waste of a pick?

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5 hours ago, TitanTuff said:

JROB knows something we don't? I was hoping Conklin to return to form but alas...

They definitely know or fear something. Those 5th year options are guaranteed for injury only. 

So if they felt safe that he's fully recovered, they would have optioned him. If he stayed healthy but didn't play to expectations, they could rescind the option. The only reason not to go with the option is that fear of injury. This is 100% what this is. But now they've put themselves in a bind. 

They need to extend Byard this offseason. He's the closest guarantee from the "big 4" coming up next offseason. That leaves the franchise for Mariota (hopefully he plays well enough to warrant it), then it leaves you trying to sign Henry and Conklin before FA.  We're expecting all 4 to be vital parts of our 2019 team, and we're risking losing multiple of them at this point. 

I guess all that's to say, I wasnt happy with this move. I woulda tagged him to get me a little security. 

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4 minutes ago, dtait93 said:

How many of those picks also costed their respective teams a 2nd and 3rd round pick to acquire though? Busting is one thing, but busting (again this is assuming he doesn't bounce back and becomes an injury bust) after you used a 2nd and 3rd rounder to acquire that player is another thing. That's the problem.

Also, would you consider Jake Locker a waste of a pick?

We also received a "king's ransom" prior to making that trade up, we had picks to spare. I mean, at the end of the day does it make it sound worse than it actually is? Well, yeah, but if you look at the bigger picture, comparing what we spent versus what we got in return, we basically traded down to 8, moved up from the 3rd into the 2nd round and got also an extra 2nd round pick, plus exchanged our 2nd round pick of 2017 for an extra 1st round pick (that ended up being 5th overall), and I could be wrong on the math but I think we also landed another 3rd that year (?). Then it doesn't look as bad anymore.

Also, yes, I would pretty much consider Locker a waste of a pick.

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12 minutes ago, Andrei01 said:

We also received a "king's ransom" prior to making that trade up, we had picks to spare. I mean, at the end of the day does it make it sound worse than it actually is? Well, yeah, but if you look at the bigger picture, comparing what we spent versus what we got in return, we basically traded down to 8, moved up from the 3rd into the 2nd round and got also an extra 2nd round pick, plus exchanged our 2nd round pick of 2017 for an extra 1st round pick (that ended up being 5th overall), and I could be wrong on the math but I think we also landed another 3rd that year (?). Then it doesn't look as bad anymore.

Also, yes, I would pretty much consider Locker a waste of a pick.

Here's how it went down: We traded picks 1, 113, and 177 in 2016 for picks 15, 43, 45, and 76 in 2016, and picks 5 and 100 in 2017. We used 15 and 76 from the Rams trade to move up to 8 and therefore went from picks 1, 113, and 177 in 2016 to picks 8, 43, and 45 in 2016, and picks 5 and 100 in 2017. We used those five picks on Conklin, Johnson, Henry, Davis, and Jonnu.

I like what we have in Henry and Davis right now, but the other guys not so much (though I understand the jury is still out on Conklin and Jonnu). If Conklin doesn't bounce back I think we could have done better, but when you put the Conklin trade itself under the microscope we could have done way better if he doesn't bounce back. If he does bounce back then all is well under the microscope and in the big picture.

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I know his option was picked up, but how's Tunsil doing? I know a lot of us wanted him that year, and he went a few picks after we took Conklin. 

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I think at this point I think the long play is to hope Conklin returns to a high level of play. Let him go sign a massive deal in FA and hope a 3rd round comp pick slides into JRobs pocket

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I can't envision a world where we give Derrick Henry big money. At least not a world I want to live in.

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Conklin’s not worth $16 million on a 1 year contract, plain and simple. Smart move by JRob. If we want to resign him, we’ll get him in the 10-12 mill per year range. My question is though, do we pay Dennis Kelly next off season instead of Conklin?

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10 hours ago, dtait93 said:

There is such a thing as an injury bust. Which is what he will be labeled if he can't bounce back. Again, if he prices himself out of what we can afford/his level of play makes us want to keep him but he decides on his own he wants to play elsewhere, it's not a waste since he became a good player we wanted to keep but weren't able to. If he's not worth keeping that means he didn't become a good player (whether that be from injury or not) and it was an enormous waste of not just the 8th overall pick in 2016, but also the 76th pick in the same draft and the 52nd pick in the draft the following year. That is a lot.

ok. whatever dude.

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The Conklin slander in this thread is trash. Just because we didn't pick up his option DOES NOT mean we are leaning toward moving on or the guy was a bad pick. His option would make him the 3rd highest paid RT in the league in 2020. his play simply hasn't warranted that. I assume the team is not opposed to paying Conk, they just need to see more first before making that investment. Its smart and logical.  Trust, if Conk returns to form and doesn't want outrageous money, the team will try and re-sign the guy. He and Marcus are essentially on prove it type deals. They will be compensated if and when they prove they are worth it.

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9 hours ago, dtait93 said:

Here's how it went down: We traded picks 1, 113, and 177 in 2016 for picks 15, 43, 45, and 76 in 2016, and picks 5 and 100 in 2017. We used 15 and 76 from the Rams trade to move up to 8 and therefore went from picks 1, 113, and 177 in 2016 to picks 8, 43, and 45 in 2016, and picks 5 and 100 in 2017. We used those five picks on Conklin, Johnson, Henry, Davis, and Jonnu.

I like what we have in Henry and Davis right now, but the other guys not so much (though I understand the jury is still out on Conklin and Jonnu). If Conklin doesn't bounce back I think we could have done better, but when you put the Conklin trade itself under the microscope we could have done way better if he doesn't bounce back. If he does bounce back then all is well under the microscope and in the big picture.

Well, yeah, we could've done better. That's honestly the case with just about any pick.

Again, put it under the microscope, and the fact remains that though we traded up for him technically, we still netted extra high picks or traded up across several rounds and still landed him, a player that so far got us at least 2 good years out of 3 on a rookie deal. So I understand it's not ideal, I understand it's great to have high standards for a high pick in the Draft and wanting to hit on that pick and secure his future with the team for at least two NFL contracts. But it's important to know how to evaluate your choices against the tough reality of the NFL and accept that sometimes things inexplicably go wrong. And the reality is that there are different degrees of busting as a top 10 pick. Again, out of the previous six players picked at that same spot as him, he panned out pretty much better than anyone not named Tannehill, who like I said is currently the backup for Mariota. Maybe he didn't meet the expectations, but he still represents a small exception to that trend of 8th overall choices busting hard.

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1 hour ago, Andrei01 said:

Well, yeah, we could've done better. That's honestly the case with just about any pick.

Again, put it under the microscope, and the fact remains that though we traded up for him technically, we still netted extra high picks or traded up across several rounds and still landed him, a player that so far got us at least 2 good years out of 3 on a rookie deal. So I understand it's not ideal, I understand it's great to have high standards for a high pick in the Draft and wanting to hit on that pick and secure his future with the team for at least two NFL contracts. But it's important to know how to evaluate your choices against the tough reality of the NFL and accept that sometimes things inexplicably go wrong. And the reality is that there are different degrees of busting as a top 10 pick. Again, out of the previous six players picked at that same spot as him, he panned out pretty much better than anyone not named Tannehill, who like I said is currently the backup for Mariota. Maybe he didn't meet the expectations, but he still represents a small exception to that trend of 8th overall choices busting hard.

If he doesn't put it back together this year it's more than just we could have done better though. It's a blunder of a first, second, and third round pick all wrapped up in to one. That's the difference - all the guys you mentioned only had a 1st round pick invested in them, whereas Conklin has a first, second, and third round pick invested in him. That is what hurts about the situation if he can't return to form. I'm rooting for him though obviously.

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21 minutes ago, dtait93 said:

If he doesn't put it back together this year it's more than just we could have done better though. It's a blunder of a first, second, and third round pick all wrapped up in to one. That's the difference - all the guys you mentioned only had a 1st round pick invested in them, whereas Conklin has a first, second, and third round pick invested in him. That is what hurts about the situation if he can't return to form. I'm rooting for him though obviously.

I know, and again, when you ignore the first half of the picture, which is the Rams trade, it looks worse than it actually is. That 2nd round pick already turned into a future 1st (5th overall + an extra 3rd in the same Draft) and that 3rd that we didn't own to begin with turned into two extra 2nd round picks. It was a calculated risk based on the haul we already secured that they could spare a small fraction of those extra Draft capital to move up and pick the prospect they said they pretty much wanted all along. And for two years, that seemed like a smart investment. Even if that turns out to be all the we got out of the pick, if you don't overlook the Rams trade (which, again, you really shouldn't) we still netted a bunch of extra top 100 picks. Which means that it wasn't a costly move at all, on the contrary, and it's not a blunder of a top 10 pick considering we got better value out of it than most teams have done so in recent years holding that very same pick in the Draft.

Anyway, this should really be judged in more detail after next year when we'll know for sure if he has managed to return to his old form or not. We'll see.

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"We could have done better with our picks." 
Hindsight is a dangerous thing.

Let's look at who was selected after #8 in the 1st round. That we COULD have picked.

9-Leonard Floyd- 15 career sacks in 3 years. Not really a homeroom for top 10.
10. Eli Apple- Traded to NY.
11. Veron Hargreaves-...done nothing reall
12. Sheldon Rankins- Good player.
13. Laremy Tunsil- Good/decent player.
14. Karl Joseph- Benched
15. Cory Coleman- Traded/cut.. in the league?
16. Taylor Decker- Eh Tackle I guess.
17. Keanu Neal- Good player/ injuries
18. Ryan Kelly- Decent center
19. Shaq Lawson- 10 Career Sacks
20. Darron Lee- 5th year option also not picked up.
21. Will Fuller- Good deep threat...injuries
22. Josh Docton- Injuries, not lived up to pick.
23. Laquon Treadwell- Bust.
24. William Jackson- 1 Career INT. I don't even know if he still playing.
25. Artie Burns- Gets burned.
26. Paxton Lynch- Cut..on a team?
27. Kenny Clark- 10 sacks. I guess he is a good NT.
28. Joshua Garnett-Injuries missed all last year.
29. Robert Nkemdiche- Option not picked up. Injuries 4.5 sacks in career I think? If i read correctly.
30. Vernon Butler- 2.5 massive career sacks.
31. Germain Ifedi- Struggling
 

So...I guess we'd take: Rankins, Neal maybe, Fuller maybe and I guess Kenny Clark? Tunsil if you just want to take the next best tackle.
Were any of them at the time worth a #8 pick? If anything be mad he didn't go up higher to get Bosa or Ramsey.


 

 

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