Alex Smith still thinks that returning to football is an option

[lavar703]

38 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I don’t think I should. This narrative that exists that just bc Alex didn’t throw for 300 yards & 2 TDs every game that he didn’t help the team win isn’t true and the facts from last season which I posted above show that.

I most certainly believe if our 2 best play making WRs (Crowder & PRich) & RB in the passing game (Thompson) would have stayed healthy that Smith’s personal stats - since that’s what everyone cares about him - would have been much better.

You can’t take 12 recs & 130 yards out of the passing attack a game in weapons and expect the same results from last years QB as we had from the QB we had from 2015-17.

Kirk Cousins wasn’t as good when CT, Crowder, Reed & either DJax or Garçon weren’t available to him either, of course we threw it almost every down in those Cousins years but last year we had Peterson to hand the ball off too which was also a major difference in our offense from 2018 vs how it was from 2015-2017.

 

Let. It. Go. 

[turtle28]

47 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

Let. It. Go. 

I would say get a mirror. You don’t like what I’m saying, ignore it.

[Woz]

19 hours ago, turtle28 said:

I most certainly believe if our 2 best play making WRs (Crowder & PRich) & RB in the passing game (Thompson) would have stayed healthy that Smith’s personal stats - since that’s what everyone cares about him - would have been much better.

I was going to let this go (and still should, sorry @lavar703), but I feel like this is a bit of a backhanded shot at me and/or Thaiphoon.

We didn't give a lick about his personal stats. We cared about his ability to move the offense when the chips were down.

He.
Could/Would.
Not.
Do.
It.

He focused on mistake-free football. That works great when they had a lead and could lean on the running game to grind opponents down. When they played anyone who had a relatively competent offense that could score quickly, they got smashed in part because Smith wouldn't take risks, even if that was what the situation called for. I don't know if he was just afraid of throwing picks or just couldn't air out the ball, but in those games where they were behind, they fell further behind. And yes, this was the case against the Texans as well before he broke his leg.

[lavar703]

1 hour ago, Woz said:

I was going to let this go (and still should, sorry @lavar703), but I feel like this is a bit of a backhanded shot at me and/or Thaiphoon.

We didn't give a lick about his personal stats. We cared about his ability to move the offense when the chips were down.

He.
Could/Would.
Not.
Do.
It.

He focused on mistake-free football. That works great when they had a lead and could lean on the running game to grind opponents down. When they played anyone who had a relatively competent offense that could score quickly, they got smashed in part because Smith wouldn't take risks, even if that was what the situation called for. I don't know if he was just afraid of throwing picks or just couldn't air out the ball, but in those games where they were behind, they fell further behind. And yes, this was the case against the Texans as well before he broke his leg.

Shame on you lol

[turtle28]

With what receiving weapons?

Smith struggled to make more plays downfield bc we lost PRich and Crowder/CT who were our three receiving options who could take a 5-10 yard reception and take it for a 20 plus yards for big gains consistently.

Crowder and CT did that often for Cousins, that makes the chains move - especially when the chips are down and defenses are playing more deep coverage when protecting a 4th quarter lead - and that builds up stats, but when you have WRs out there who can't do that, the YAC isn't there, stats won't accumulate as much and our offense will struggle more when definitely needing to move the ball when we’re down by a score or two in the 4th quarter.

Again, take 3 of any QBs top 4 receiving option off of their offense and they're going to be pretty mediocre. Especially when you're giving the ball to Peterson a lot vs how much we ran the ball from 15-17.

And it's definitely about his stats. Not being able to move the ball in the 4th quarter without 3 of his top 4 receiving options at most of his receiving options is about his stats.

Edited June 29, 2019 by turtle28

[Woz]

5 hours ago, turtle28 said:

With what receiving weapons?

Smith struggled to make more plays downfield bc we lost PRich and Crowder/CT who were our three receiving options who could take a 5-10 yard reception and take it for a 20 plus yards for big gains consistently.

Throwing a 5-10 yard out and then relying on your receiver to get you 20+ YAC is NOT throwing it downfield. That's a checkdown or a drag route.

5 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Crowder and CT did that often for Cousins, that makes the chains move - especially when the chips are down and defenses are playing more deep coverage when protecting a 4th quarter lead - and that builds up stats, but when you have WRs out there who can't do that, the YAC isn't there, stats won't accumulate as much and our offense will struggle more when definitely needing to move the ball when we’re down by a score or two in the 4th quarter.

And this is true ... provided you don't throw to Chris Thompson in the middle of the field with a checkdown like they did against the Colts. That was when they were trailing by two scores and had most of everyone healthy.

Again, I don't care how you would get there. But you need to play with some semblance of urgency.

Smith never did.

If you gave him a lead, he was perfectly fine since he could grind the opponents. If you put him in a position to have to come from behind, he couldn't. It wasn't a situation of injuries but willingness and understanding of the situation.

[turtle28]

7 hours ago, Woz said:

Throwing a 5-10 yard out and then relying on your receiver to get you 20+ YAC is NOT throwing it downfield. That's a checkdown or a drag route.

And this is true ... provided you don't throw to Chris Thompson in the middle of the field with a checkdown like they did against the Colts. That was when they were trailing by two scores and had most of everyone healthy.

Again, I don't care how you would get there. But you need to play with some semblance of urgency.

Smith never did.

If you gave him a lead, he was perfectly fine since he could grind the opponents. If you put him in a position to have to come from behind, he couldn't. It wasn't a situation of injuries but willingness and understanding of the situation.

So basically the way I see it from these descriptions is that Alex Smith actually was about the same as Kirk Cousins in 2017 after he lost Djax and Garcon to free agency.

Edited June 28, 2019 by turtle28

[Thaiphoon]

On 6/26/2019 at 10:12 PM, turtle28 said:

You can’t take 12 recs & 130 yards out of the passing attack a game in weapons and expect the same results from last years QB as we had from the QB we had from 2015-17.

Kirk Cousins wasn’t as good when CT, Crowder, Reed & either DJax or Garçon weren’t available to him either, of course we threw it almost every down in those Cousins years but last year we had Peterson to hand the ball off too which was also a major difference in our offense from 2018 vs how it was from 2015-2017.

 

Why not? Cousins' numbers dipped jn 2017, but not too terribly much relatively speaking.

Without a run game and no Reed or anyone else to throw to, he still went for more yards/game and TDs/game than Alex did in the same offense

[turtle28]

20 hours ago, Thaiphoon said:

Why not? Cousins' numbers dipped jn 2017, but not too terribly much relatively speaking.

Without a run game and no Reed or anyone else to throw to, he still went for more yards/game and TDs/game than Alex did in the same offense

Yeah, in an offense Cousins was in for 4 years with most of the same playmakers that he had been throwing to for 4 or 5 years and bc Cousins was without a run game Cousins was throwing the ball more a game bc we didn’t have a running back like Peterson.

Cousins did have Reed in 2017 for 6 of the  first 7 games in 2017. Crowder played 15 games in 2017 and only 4 of Alex’s games 10 games in 2018 & CT played 10 games in 2017 but only played 5 of Alex’s games in 2018.

On top of that Cousins still had Ryan Grant in 2017 as his #4 WR who took over for Pryor. Grant and Cousins always had good chemistry since their first preseason together in 2014.

Alex had to rely on the street free agent Michael Floyd and the inconsistent Maurice Harris in 2018 when Crowder & CT missed most of the first 1/2 of the season and PRich was done for the year.

The receiving weapons that Cousins had in the passing game in 2017 weren’t as great as they were in 2015 & 16 but they were better than what Alex had when Crowder, CT & PRich were all hurt.

Edited June 29, 2019 by turtle28

[Thaiphoon]

10 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Yeah, in an offense Cousins was in for 4 years with most of the same playmakers that he had been throwing to for 4 or 5 years and bc Cousins was without a run game Cousins was throwing the ball more a game bc we didn’t have a running back like Peterson.

We've covered this ad nauseum. Yes. Alex had the benefit of a run game here. Which should've led to bigger plays and more yards/game. Not less.

Quote

Cousins did have Reed in 2017 for 6 of the  first 7 games in 2017. Crowder played 15 games in 2017 and only 4 of Alex’s games 10 games in 2018 & CT played 10 games in 2017 but only played 5 of Alex’s games in 2018.

Reed was healthy all 2018. He was not healthy at all in 2017. In most games in 2017 he was either a decoy or at 1/2 "strength". Crowder was a fumbling machine in 2017 and caused at least 2 INT's. Agreed on CT. He missed 5 of Cousins' games in 2017 and 4 of Alex' games in 2018.

Quote

On top of that Cousins still had Ryan Grant in 2017 as his #4 WR who took over for Pryor. Grant and Cousins always had good chemistry since their first preseason together in 2014.

Ryan Grant? Hmmm...yeah, I'm not sure that's who you want to highlight from our WR corps.

Quote

Alex had to rely on the street free agent Michael Floyd and the inconsistent Maurice Harris in 2018 when Crowder & misses his games and PRich was done for the year.

LOL...PRich missed only 2 games that Alex played. 

Quote

The receiving weapons that Cousins had in the passing game in 2017 weren’t as great as they were in 2015 & 16 but they were better than what Alex had when Crowder, CT & PRich were all hurt.

This is serious historical revisionism.

What Cousins had in 2017?

1) Pryor and Doctson = WOO HOO! CHAMPIONSHIP!!

2) CT = Did well, got injured in last 6 games. Bright spot of the offense

3) Crowder = turnover machine.

4) Reed = banged up and even when in the game was a decoy

5) No run game to keep the defense honest and open up the passing game

What Alex had in 2018?

1) PRich and Doctson = Better than 2017

2) CT = played most of Alex' games just like Cousins' games in 2017

3) Crowder = yes was hurt for 1/2 of Alex' games, but that was addition by subtraction. Still an argument in your favor could be made that his loss hurt our passing game. I doubt it, but it still can be argued.

4) Reed = healthy and played all year

5) A run game that produced a 1k runner for the first time in ages. 

 

So no...Alex did not have a worse supporting cast than Cousins did. 

 

[turtle28]

I already answered this too, we just don't agree.

The way I see it, Cousins got a lot of volume stats bc we threw the ball more and he threw a 5-10 yd pass do CT or Crowder and they’d yet 10 plus yac or they'd take it to the house. Alex didn't have the benefit of that except the few games he played w/ CT & Crowder & the one time Bibbs did it.

People are wrong about CT, Prich & the affect that Crowder had on our passing game in 2018, I don't even understand how this can be an honest discussion if people are not willing to admit that missing 12 plus receptions & 125 plus yards on avg is not going to effect a QB’s ability to operate in the passing game.

!!!ROLL THE EYES EMOJI!!!

Last year CT missed 5 of possible 6 games Alex played in during Oct & Nov and Crowder played the first 4 games and then the last 6 games that Smith played in. Paul Richarson missed 3 of Smith’s last 5 games and was our only consistent deep threat to stretch the field.

The Redskins were forced to run the ball more in 2018 - even though its obvious they should of bc they had AD - but they had to bc 3 of their top 4 receiving weapons were hurt, Gruden was forced into having a run-first offense bc of injuries to and thus lack of enough reliable receiving options.

Also, the way I see it is if your handing the ball off more, your QB is not passing it as much which means less yards and less opportunities for receiving options to make plays in the passing game.

So, it can be both than a RB and play action can open up things for Qbs downfield but also if a team.is running the ball a lot more a Qbs stats will be affected bc there aren't as many of attempts and completions to the receiving options.

Also, the QB still needs good wrs who can consistently get open to throw to even off of play action. It's a problem and it was last year.

Lastly, it's hilarious that the Redskins WR corp has been one of the worst 2 years running - in 2017 & 18 - and their other two receiving threats - CT & Reed - struggle to stay healthy yet we want to blame the QB for that...

Really?

Edited June 30, 2019 by turtle28

[Thaiphoon]

On 6/29/2019 at 3:44 PM, turtle28 said:

I already answered this too, we just don't agree.

The way I see it, Cousins got a lot of volume stats bc we threw the ball more and he threw a 5-10 yd pass do CT or Crowder and they’d yet 10 plus yac or they'd take it to the house. Alex didn't have the benefit of that except the few games he played w/ CT & Crowder & the one time Bibbs did it.

People are wrong about CT, Prich & the affect that Crowder had on our passing game in 2018, I don't even understand how this can be an honest discussion if people are not willing to admit that missing 12 plus receptions & 125 plus yards on avg is not going to effect a QB’s ability to operate in the passing game.

!!!ROLL THE EYES EMOJI!!!

Last year CT missed 5 of possible 6 games Alex played in during Oct & Nov and Crowder played the first 4 games and then the last 6 games that Smith played in. Paul Richarson missed 3 of Smith’s last 5 games and was our only consistent deep threat to stretch the field.

The Redskins were forced to run the ball more in 2018 - even though its obvious they should of bc they had AD - but they had to bc 3 of their top 4 receiving weapons were hurt, Gruden was forced into having a run-first offense bc of injuries to and thus lack of enough reliable receiving options.

Also, the way I see it is if your handing the ball off more, your QB is not passing it as much which means less yards and less opportunities for receiving options to make plays in the passing game.

So, it can be both than a RB and play action can open up things for Qbs downfield but also if a team.is running the ball a lot more a Qbs stats will be affected bc there aren't as many of attempts and completions to the receiving options.

Also, the QB still needs good wrs who can consistently get open to throw to even off of play action. It's a problem and it was last year.

Lastly, it's hilarious that the Redskins WR corp has been one of the worst 2 years running - in 2017 & 18 - and their other two receiving threats - CT & Reed - struggle to stay healthy yet we want to blame the QB for that...

Really?

It boggles the mind how much revisionism you're doing to justify why Alex didn't do as well on a per game basis.

• CT missed about the same # of games with Alex that he did with Cousins. He missed CAR, DAL, ATL, TB. And HOU but that's the same game Alex got hurt early in so that doesn't count.
• Reed was healthy the entire time Alex was in the lineup. Not so with Cousins.
• The #1 and #2 receivers for Alex were far better than Cousins had in 2017.
• Alex' best game statistically came with PRich out of the lineup. So even with his absence, he didn't miss him.
• And no...a good running game most definitely makes the defense honest. We're not talking about a RB running for 1500 yards and 13+TDs taking away opportunities to put up big numbers. Even though he did just that with Hunt as his RB in 2017. Remember the whole "best deep ball thrower" comments?
• We're talking about a 1k rusher who kept the defense honest so that they couldn't just pass rush and drop their backers and DBs into coverage all the time. This should've led to more big plays and more big #'s in the passing game. Not less.

A running game keeps them on their toes and opens up the middle to long routes. As much as you know about football, you know this to be true. Cousins had a worse supporting cast. But somehow you're willing to ignore that in order to try to revise Alex' tenure with here and tell us that the drops of liquid we're feeling on our heads is just rain.

 

 

[turtle28]

I already explained the difference between when CT missed the games w/ Cousins vs when CT missed the games and then Alex broke his leg and didn't finish the final 6 games. That's the difference Thai if you want an accurate comparison - and I'm not doing this bc it's pointless - you would compare the Cousins games w/o CT and Crowder to those when Alex didn't have them but there's really no point. You guys have made up your decision based off a small sample size and I refuse to believe that if Alex had stayed healthy, had played 2 plus more years in DC and we had upgraded our WR corps over this offseason and next that his stats every year would have been 3400 to 3600 yards and 16-20 TDs.

The #1 & 2 Wrs weren't better for Alex bc he didn't have his #1 WR healthy all year and Doctson was a starter in 2017 & 18 so, that's a wash.

I just don't understand how you come to the conclusions you do but it's whatever.

[Woz]

6 hours ago, turtle28 said:

I already explained the difference between when CT missed the games w/ Cousins vs when CT missed the games and then Alex broke his leg and didn't finish the final 6 games. That's the difference Thai if you want an accurate comparison - and I'm not doing this bc it's pointless - you would compare the Cousins games w/o CT and Crowder to those when Alex didn't have them but there's really no point.

Okay. I'll bite

I'm only going to consider two years for Cousins: 2015 and 2017. Why those two?

1. Thompson barely was part of the offense prior to 2015 (zero touches on offense in his rookie season of 2013 (in four games), and only 3 carries and 7 targets in 2014 (in two games)).
2. Jamison Crowder wasn't drafted until 2015.
3. All three played all 16 games in 2016.
4. Kirk Cousins wasn't the primary starter until 2015 (and didn't play with Thompson on the offense in 2014)

 

• 2015
  • Thompson played in 13 games (missed games 7 (the "You like that?!" game), 13, and 14); Crowder played in all 16
  • Games when Thompson played
    • Cousins' stats for games 1-6: 151-228 (66.2%), 1420 yards (6.23 YPA), 6 TD (2.6% TD%), 8 INT (3.5% INT%), 77.4 RTG
    • Cousins' stats for games 8-12: 106-155 (68.4%), 1269 yards (8.19 YPA), 8 TD (5.2% TD%), 2 INT (1.3% INT%), 105.0 RTG
    • Cousins' stats for games 15-16: 43-61 (70.5%), 541 yards (8.87 YPA), 7 TD (11.5% TD%), 0 INT (0% INT%), 136.0 RTG
       
    • TOTAL: 300-444 (67.6%), 3230 yards (7.27 YPA), 21 TD (4.7% TD%), 10 INT (2.3% INT%), 95.1 RTG
  • Games when Thompson did not play
    • Cousins' stats for game 7: 33-40 (82.5%), 317 yards (7.93 YPA), 3 TD (7.5% TD%), 0 INT (0% INT%), 124.7 RTG
    • Cousins' stats for games 13-14: 46-59 (78.0%), 619 yards (10.5 YPA), 5 TD (8.5% TD%, 1 INT (1.7% INT%), 131.6 RTG
       
    • TOTAL: 79-99 (79.8%), 936 yards (9.45 YPA), 8 TD (8.1% TD%), 1 INT (1.0% INT%), 128.8 RTG
• 2017
  • Thompson played the first 10 games (including is only career start against San Francisco in Game 5); Crowder played in all 16
  • Games when Thompson played
    • Cousins' stats for games 1-10: 230-345 (66.7%), 2796 yards (8.10 YPA), 17 TD (4.9% TD%), 5 INT (1.4% INT%), 101.8 RTG
    • Cousins' stats for games 11-16: 117-195 (60.0%), 1297 yards (6.65 YPA), 10 TD (5.1 TD%), 8 INT (4.1% INT%), 79.8 RTG
• 2017 saw the only game that Crowder missed in his first three seasons (week 8)
  • Cousins' stats for game 8: 21-31 (67.7%), 247 yards (7.97 YPA), 0 TD (0% TD%), 0 INT (0% INT%), 91.7 RTG
  • Thompson's stats for game 8 (for what it's worth): 4 carries, 20 yards (5.00 YPC), 6 targets, 4 catches (66.7% catch rate), 11 yards (2.75 yards per reception, 1.83 yards per target) [Ed. note: not what we call earth shattering]
• So, there exists no game where Cousins played without both Thompson and Crowder.

 

So, in 2015, Cousins did substantially better without Thompson in the lineup, but did substantially worse in 2017 when Thompson went down. Perhaps by 2017 Washington had more fully installed Thompson as a feature part of the offense? Or that Cousins trusted/relied on him more after playing together for essentially three years? Dunno. Crowder was there the for almost the entire time.

 

Alex Smith (games 1-10) with Thompson (games 1-4, 7) and Crowder (games 1-4, 7)

• With Thompson and Crowder
  • Smith's stats for game 1-4: 89-135 (65.9%), 1042 yards (7.72 YPA), 4 TD (3.0% TD%), 2 INT (1.5% INT%), 92.9 RTG
  • Smith's stats for game 7: 20-32 (62.5%), 178 yards (5.56 YPA), 1 TD (3.1% TD%), 0 INT (0% INT%), 87.8 RTG
     
  • TOTAL: 109-167 (65.2%), 1220 yards (7.31 YPA), 5 TD (3.0% TD%), 2 INT (1.2% INT%), 91.9 RTG
• Without Thompson and Crowder
  • Smith's stats for games 5-6: 35-61 (57.4%), 341 yards (5.59 YPA), 3 TD (4.9% TD%), 0 INT (0% INT%), 89.6 RTG
  • Smith's stats for games 8-10: 61-100 (61.0%), 619 yards (6.19 YPA), 2 TD (2.0% TD%), 3 INT (3.0% INT%), 72.9 RTG
     
  • TOTAL: 96-161 (59.6%), 960 yards (5.96YPA), 5 TD (3.1% TD%), 3 INT (1.9% INT%), 79.2 RTG

 

So, Smith depended heavily on his underneath receivers and when they went down, he collapsed.
 

One game you have consistently ignored was week 2 against Indianapolis. The team was healthy then (Thompson, Crowder, Jordan Reed, Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson all played). Smith had (statistically speaking) his best game, but it almost was entirely based on garbage time stats.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201809160was.htm#all_pbp

Next to last drive: 54 yards passing on 8 pass plays (7 of 8). Took ~2:30 minutes. Team was down 21-9
Last drive: 56 yards passing on 10 pass plays. (6 of 8, with a sack and scramble). Took ~3:30 minutes while still down 21-9.

110 yards on 13-16 eating up 6 minutes of the fourth quarter. When he played like it didn't matter, but it absolutely did.

 

8 hours ago, turtle28 said:

I refuse to believe that if Alex had stayed healthy, had played 2 plus more years in DC and we had upgraded our WR corps over this offseason and next that his stats every year would have been 3400 to 3600 yards and 16-20 TDs.

Which would have been a significant downgrade in the offense.

Cousins' three full time starting seasons averaged out to be 4392 yards and 27 touchdowns. Your projected stats would have been at best almost 800 yards and 7 touchdowns less than they were with Kirk.

 

8 hours ago, turtle28 said:

You guys have made up your decision based off a small sample size

And this is the biggest crock of **** of them all.

I was jumping up and down about how you were picking a small sample size by looking only at Smith's 2017 numbers and not his career numbers. You swore up and down that 2017 was his new normal. Well, let's compare what he did in Washington his career, shall we?

• Career
  • Completion percentage: 62.4% [vs. 62.5% in DC]
  • Yards per attempt: 6.89 [vs. 6.65]
  • TD%: 3.9% [vs 3.0%]
  • INT%: 2.0% [vs 1.5%]

That looks pretty similar doesn't it? So, don't give me this BS about we made our decision on a small sample size. You bought into the small sample size by convincing yourself (like Bruce Allen did) that Smith's 2017 season was reality, but ignored the fact that he played in one of the most quarterback friendly offenses with the most dangerous vertical threat in the league and one of the most explosive running backs in the league. Oh yeah, and one of the best tight ends in the league to boot. And further ignored the fact that he played in the same system for four previous years and looked pedestrian doing it.

To paraphrase the great philosopher Green: "He is who he we thought he was! ... and we paid him like he was someone different!"

[MikeT14]

Alex Smith best deep ball 2017.