An eye towards the 2020 Draft

[Karnage84]

I'm not ready to throw in the towel after our Week 1 tie. This is just intended to be more of a running thread throughout the season. On a week-to-week basis, what do you view as the Lions team needs? Which college players do you like and see as potential fits for the Lions?

From the Arizona game, the glaring needs to me are:

OL- Decker doesn't look like our LT of the future, so that might need to be addressed; OG was already an issue

Pass Rush: If the Lions do finish in the top 10 as some pundits have predicted, there are a few guys like Chase Young, AJ Epenesa that would be available and could help fill this need. It's possible that the return of Jarrad Davis resolves this but for now, we can use a speed guy on the edge

S - Walker had some up-and-down moments. Depending on how things shake out, it might be hard to pass on a top tier guy like Grant Delpit.

WR - Marvin Jones wasn't much of a factor in this game although it's just a small sample size. However, we will eventually have to get his replacement on the roster at some point.

 

[Sllim Pickens]

OL is a big one IMO.  I think we need some help there early on.  I know we have spent a lot of resources on the OL so not sure I trust Quinn's scouting of the position but we need to do something to improve the line as a whole. 

WR I feel like we can find more in the mid rounds.  We don't need to draft a Jeudy type in the top of the first but would like to draft 1 or 2 in the 2-4 rounds. 

Pass Rush, I always feel like DE's are a need even if they truly aren't.  I think our DL is a strength but would always like to add to it, especially if we have a high pick.

DB, again I don't fully trust Quinn in this department but definitely need to add some talent to the back end.  I'm not sure it needs to be 1st round need, but earlier rounds. 

 

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

OL is a big one IMO.  I think we need some help there early on.  I know we have spent a lot of resources on the OL so not sure I trust Quinn's scouting of the position but we need to do something to improve the line as a whole. 

WR I feel like we can find more in the mid rounds.  We don't need to draft a Jeudy type in the top of the first but would like to draft 1 or 2 in the 2-4 rounds. 

Pass Rush, I always feel like DE's are a need even if they truly aren't.  I think our DL is a strength but would always like to add to it, especially if we have a high pick.

DB, again I don't fully trust Quinn in this department but definitely need to add some talent to the back end.  I'm not sure it needs to be 1st round need, but earlier rounds. 

 

At this point, assuming everything else is equal, I'm of the feeling that we should add to a strength as opposed to trying to patch a hole. If Chase Young, Walker Little, Grant Delpit and Jerry Jeudy are all sitting there for us to pick, I'm leaning towards the DE.

- We spent years complaining about Ansah not having help on the other side at end. Okwara is a spot starter and high end depth but is a guy that can be upgraded.

- A'Shawn is likely not going to be around for long. We have been able to find some guys who can replace him but I don't want to see the depth and talent of this unit get eroded

- I don't expect Mike Daniel's to come back, assuming that he plays well, due to a big contract

- We paid big money to Flowers. I'm good with giving him some help so that we can maximize the value of that contract and let him do what he needs to do.

 

Otherwise, I think we need to add to the OL and address OT.

[diehardlionfan]

You can never go wrong drafting linemen assuming you draft the right guys.🤠

Decker may not be an all star but Arizona was the worst game of his career. He got beat like a rented mule. I expect a much better game from him next week. If he continues to struggle badly,  LT,  in my view instantly becomes the number one need. 

The defence looked really good for 80% of the game. When they let up, well, we know what happened.

At this early stage my concern is the secondary but that’s really a left over from last year. 

If the season implodes the number one need might be a QB. 

[SwiftPride]

Lets scrap the whole thing. Top to bottom. Ford out, Quinn out, Patricia out. Trade Stafford.

Get Dan Gilbert in to own the team. Hire Dave Dombrowski as GM. Rex Ryan as HC. I think 2020 means it’s our turn with Fitzpatrick. Focus all assets on playmakers. 

Run only wildcat formation plays.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 11, 2019 by TimeForChange

[Karnage84]

10 hours ago, diehardlionfan said:

You can never go wrong drafting linemen assuming you draft the right guys.🤠

Decker may not be an all star but Arizona was the worst game of his career. He got beat like a rented mule. I expect a much better game from him next week. If he continues to struggle badly,  LT,  in my view instantly becomes the number one need. 

The defence looked really good for 80% of the game. When they let up, well, we know what happened.

At this early stage my concern is the secondary but that’s really a left over from last year. 

If the season implodes the number one need might be a QB. 

If the season does implode, I still expect Patricia/Quinn to be given the beginning of the 2020 season to turn things around. If there's another rough start, I can see the firing squad being lined up and change happening quickly with an eye towards Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 draft.

On a related note - Walker Little is apparently out for the season. I doubt that he'd declare for the 2020 draft, so we'll have to turn our eyes towards some other guys for that spot.

Assuming that Decker is an average-to-slightly above average starting LT (and he's probably more average than more), how much does the issues at LG affect his play from being a better player? If we spend early picks at other spots (Say Chase Young) but add someone as a FA or a mid-round pick, how much better would Decker be with improved help inside or do we need to upgrade from him without question?

[Sllim Pickens]

36 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

If the season does implode, I still expect Patricia/Quinn to be given the beginning of the 2020 season to turn things around. If there's another rough start, I can see the firing squad being lined up and change happening quickly with an eye towards Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 draft.

On a related note - Walker Little is apparently out for the season. I doubt that he'd declare for the 2020 draft, so we'll have to turn our eyes towards some other guys for that spot.

Assuming that Decker is an average-to-slightly above average starting LT (and he's probably more average than more), how much does the issues at LG affect his play from being a better player? If we spend early picks at other spots (Say Chase Young) but add someone as a FA or a mid-round pick, how much better would Decker be with improved help inside or do we need to upgrade from him without question?

I think Decker can be serviceable. And yes if there is a weak spot on the line it makes them all look bad.  I still think we should replace him (or move him to LG) sooner than later.  I was disappointed that no resources this offseason went to the O line.  It was a weakness last year and all we added were some UDFA's. 

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I think Decker can be serviceable. And yes if there is a weak spot on the line it makes them all look bad.  I still think we should replace him (or move him to LG) sooner than later.  I was disappointed that no resources this offseason went to the O line.  It was a weakness last year and all we added were some UDFA's. 

The most interesting part to me, is that our team needs seem very similar for 2020 as they were for 2019, at least for now

- OL

-DE

- CB

- WR

- Backup QB

The only ones that we've addressed that are less pressing are: TE and LB. Tavai does look like he belongs and Hockenson is looking an ascending star, although we'll pump the brakes on that until we face off against a defense playing its starters.

[Karnage84]

We're going into week 4 and surprisingly undefeated. After the last couple weeks, the draft needs seem to be:

1) Pass Rusher

2) Pass Rusher

3) Speed WR

Despite the DL being one of the best on paper going into the season, the performance has been lackluster so far. We really need a guy that can get after the QB. Rivers looked like he was able to just hang out back there last weekend and Wentz didn't seem to get a lot of pressure either. Even when he was pressured, he was able to escape and make the play. Bevell and Stafford have done a decent job with the offense. It still seems to be missing a guy that can take the top off of the defense and open up room for some of the other guys. The offense seems to be moving vertically which is great, we just need to add some pieces to help make it that much more dynamic.

We will still probably add to the OL in the draft although Crosby did a solid job in week 2 and the unit did a pretty good job against the Eagles in week 3. Melvin and Coleman looked good this week while Ford did a pretty good job filling in for Slay after he went out. The Lions don't tend to start rookie CB's anyway, so we're likely not going to add a guy high in the draft to fill this spot either way. Walker and Diggs are a decent tandem at S. I'd probably consider biting the bullet if Delpit has a Derwin James like fall (assuming we're in the mid-teens' to twenties).

I've been watching a few college games this year but haven't been doing a ton of pre-draft work.

[HashtagFTW]

Our OL is fine imo. Is it a great OL? Hell no. However it’s not a bad OL either. We’ve been fighting for years to get an elite OL and it’s just too hard to accomplish. An average, competent OL will suffice imo. This also allows us to sharpen up other weaknesses that we neglected trying to build an elite OL. 

[Sllim Pickens]

5 minutes ago, HashtagFTW said:

Our OL is fine imo. Is it a great OL? Hell no. However it’s not a bad OL either. We’ve been fighting for years to get an elite OL and it’s just too hard to accomplish. An average, competent OL will suffice imo. This also allows us to sharpen up other weaknesses that we neglected trying to build an elite OL. 

What areas are weaker than our O line?  TE, RB, QB are not so maybe WR on offense.  Even then, I would say WR is not weaker than the O line. 

Our D line is solid, LBs we also have spent a lot of assets and have youth and solid play from Kennard, Jones, Davis, and Tavai.

Our CBs have played well, we have some youth in the wings but could add another player here.  Still I would say the top 3 CBs are better than our O line.

S is solid as well. 

So while our O line is ok, they are the weakest and have the least potential on our roster IMO. 

[Karnage84]

6 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

What areas are weaker than our O line?  TE, RB, QB are not so maybe WR on offense.  Even then, I would say WR is not weaker than the O line. 

Our D line is solid, LBs we also have spent a lot of assets and have youth and solid play from Kennard, Jones, Davis, and Tavai.

Our CBs have played well, we have some youth in the wings but could add another player here.  Still I would say the top 3 CBs are better than our O line.

S is solid as well. 

So while our O line is ok, they are the weakest and have the least potential on our roster IMO. 

I wouldn't agree that our OL is fine but if they're able to play like they have been and keep Stafford clean, I don't think they'll be throwing an early pick or two at it. If there's any development from the UDFA's they brought in, they might not even address the interior OL and add a mid-round OT into the mix. It's more about the unit as opposed to the individual pieces. This is still so early and things could blow up. However, if they keep this up then Decker is going to be re-signed to a longer term contract with Crosby as a nice back up. They'd probably add a guy to replace Wagner eventually.

LB's: They're probably going to look at replacing Jones sooner rather than later. Kennard has arguably been the best player on the defense but they'll also be looking to add a guy to replace him. Maybe not in 2020 but in 2021.

CB's: Melvin is only on a 1 year contract. We have some pieces here but we'll definitely still need to add pieces here

It's not just about the guys filling holes. You have to plan ahead and develop guys to step in and replace aging guys that are much more expensive.

 

Key 2020 FA's

WR: Danny Amendola

TE: Logan Thomas

OL: Graham Glasgow, Kenny Wiggins

DL: Mike Daniels, A'Shawn Robinson

LB: Christian Jones

Key 2021 FA's

WR: Kenny Golloday, Marvin Jones

LT: Taylor Decker

LB: Devon Kennard, Jarrad Davis

CB: Darius Slay

I expect that we're going to re-sign Glasgow. We'd probably bring back Danny if he wants to come back the way things are going right now. Thomas is up in the air and could be bumped out by Nauta. Adding guys to the OL is going to be important as we're looking ahead. LB is taking a big hit early on. We need to add a guy to replace Jones. I expect to re-sign Davis. Kennard is a pricey guy that we'll probably look at replacing going into 2021. Slay is going to get re-signed but we need to add guys. I think A'Shawn is likely out the door looking to get paid.

Potential 2021 cut candidates appear to be: Rick Wagner (savings of $9M); Snacks Harrison (savings of $9M); Quandre Diggs (savings of $5.5M).

 

[Karnage84]

Kyle Meinke tweeted this out (picked up on BR app)

- Graham Glasgow is PFF's #8 OG

- Joe Dahl is #11

- Ragnow is #2 OC

 

It's still early and things can change but this is a good sign for us. I'm interested to see where Decker and Wagner fit in their rankings.

[Just Want A Title]

Its a little early to be figuring out our draft needs.  That said in no particular order:

1.  WR--We need another young WR to pair with Gollady, preferably a speed guy who can take the top off of a defense like Michael Gallup.  Amendola isn't getting any younger.

2.  OT--Taylor Decker has settled in after a rough start but Rick Wagner isn't worth what we are paying him.  Our interior is solid but more quality depth is never a bad thing.

3.  DE--We need a game wrecker that you always have to scheme around.  My personal opinion is that the Lions are setting themselves up for a run at Chris Jones to provide the disruptive presence we are lacking inside so what we should be focused on.  Okwara is a smart, try-hard player but he doesn't command double-teams.  

4.  QB--Look at the guys they are signing.  We need a long-term plan-b for Matthew Stafford.  He is 31 years old and not Tom Brady.

5.  CB--Melvin has been solid but is on a one-year deal.  We need insurance just in-case we can't get a deal done with Darius Slay.

6.  S--We should take a developmental safety just in-case Will Harris doesn't pan out.  

 

[Karnage84]

5 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Its a little early to be figuring out our draft needs.  That said in no particular order:

1.  WR--We need another young WR to pair with Gollady, preferably a speed guy who can take the top off of a defense like Michael Gallup.  Amendola isn't getting any younger.

2.  OT--Taylor Decker has settled in after a rough start but Rick Wagner isn't worth what we are paying him.  Our interior is solid but more quality depth is never a bad thing.

3.  DE--We need a game wrecker that you always have to scheme around.  My personal opinion is that the Lions are setting themselves up for a run at Chris Jones to provide the disruptive presence we are lacking inside so what we should be focused on.  Okwara is a smart, try-hard player but he doesn't command double-teams.  

4.  QB--Look at the guys they are signing.  We need a long-term plan-b for Matthew Stafford.  He is 31 years old and not Tom Brady.

5.  CB--Melvin has been solid but is on a one-year deal.  We need insurance just in-case we can't get a deal done with Darius Slay.

6.  S--We should take a developmental safety just in-case Will Harris doesn't pan out.  

 

It's never too early to be thinking ahead. There's only so much that happens in between games unless you're actually on the team. It's intended to be a running thread throughout the season. See if our needs stay consistent or if things change as we progress.

1)WR: I agree with this although Amendola isn't the guy that worries me the most. He's on a 1 year deal and we knew he was going to be a short term fix. Marvin has performed well so far but he's getting up there in age and he has a hefty salary of about $9M. I don't know about replacing him immediately next year but I don't think he comes back in 2021. If he does, it would be at a reduced rate. I agree that we need to add a speed guy.

2) OT: Agreed on Wagner. Heck, we might even decide to move on from Decker after next year. Crosby did a nice job as a fill in but I'm not sold he's a guy we can rely on long term. If Wagner plays out of his mind and is a top 10 RT, I'd still like to see us add an OT as a potential replacement in 2021. We'd open up about $9M in cap space by moving off of him. Glasgow is going to need to get re-signed. If he plays like he has been, he'll be looking at about $9M/year. With other needs and significant signings for 2021, finding some cap space is certainly going to help

3) DE: This seems to be our biggest need by far up until this point. The DL has underperformed and even if we have been able to generate pressure, we aren't getting to the QB like we should be. I thought it might be resolved with Davis coming back and it could change going forward. At this point though, Okwara is a really nice depth guy but we need to add a playmaker to go with Flowers

4) QB: As long as Stafford is in the short-to-medium term plans, a QB is never going to be taken earlier than the 4th or 5th. If I'm looking to have a guy come in and fill in for a week or two if Stafford gets banged up, it's going to be a veteran guy. I wouldn't be counting on one of the top guys coming in unless Stafford really falters and they're looking to move on from him. If he continues to play like this, we probably won't see them bring in any real competition until 2021

5)CB: Agree on this 100%. However, they're going to re-sign Slay. Both sides want to do it and Slay has shown to be worth it. The issue is that he has two years left on his deal and he is being compensated fairly, in contrast to what happened with Snacks who was on a bargain.

6) S: This is a bit surprising to me. I'd be more inclined to look at a S if we had to with the suggestion that either a) Wallker doesn't pan out and/or b) Diggs is getting older and we can find a cheaper alternative. Walker has performed well with a few up and down moments. It's a learning curve but he hasn't been getting blown out of the water either.

 

LB is an underrated need and we are likely going to see it addressed in the 2020 and 2021 draft's. Christian Jones is going to be out of his contract and Kennard is a FA in 2021. If we're going to be signing guys like Slay, Golladay and Davis to new deals in 2021 we will need to find some other guys on cheaper deals to find the room.