theuntouchable Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 On 10/20/2019 at 1:26 AM, Malfatron said: i was roleblocked last night by texas chainsaw massacre (scary mask and chainsaw) @Forge 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theuntouchable Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 37 minutes ago, Forge said: Okay, here's where it gets really fun and interesting because Jason's move is very anti town right now. It would appear that he role blocks every night - no even/odd distribution (confirmed by Whicker rb'd one night, slappy the next), and LIS, those targets are extremely anti town. The best town can hope for is that he can't RB the same person two nights in a row (which may account for why he went Slappy last night after RBing Whicker the night before if he's scum). At some point, the "I'm new" thing doesn't necessarily work. He hasn't been super active and paying attention, so perhaps that is all it is, but I can also tell you that on my first game, on my first night, I killed Swag. It didn't take me very long to figure out certain things LOL. But even if he can't RB every night, that still leaves Whicker exposed to a RB tonight if he's around, which is very detrimental. Whicker is the most important person in this game right now from a town perspective. Clearing a person is just as problematic for scum as red lettering someone now. Assuming Cheese does not save himself, we are down to 13. I am survivor aligned indy, so I can remove myself from this equation and note that there are 12 left that consist of what appears to be 2 scum teams. Now we have to simply break down the game itself. 28 players. That means two, full 4-man scum teams is not out of the realm of possibility and probably even likely. The ratio would be right, maybe even on the lower side (28-29%). Add in an indy or two, and the total non town players is still just fine assuming the max of 10 (35-36%). If you go 3+3 or 3+4, your ratios for pure scum are actually a little on the low side (25% and under), so I think it's reasonable to assume 4 + 4. Using these numbers, and assuming that Cheese is in fact scum, I think it's actually reasonable to assume that 4 - 5 of the remaining 12 are scum (excluding myself from the remaining players). Town isn't at lylo because of the split factions, but with the way the deaths have been coming, that can get a lot closer really quick. Town needs to get the lynches right moving forward. The way to insure that is through Whicker, and the RB does impede that and town essentially has to hope for cross kills. Neither scum faction will target me, because I don't help their wincon, and they need to be able to say later that maybe I'm lying about being a third party to get a mislynch that doesn't help town. So they are working with a very limited pool of players here and based on some of what has been discussed, they probably have a good indication of who each other are at this point. At least good enough to decrease the chances that they cross over. Now we have Pickle saying that Whicker and KSJ aren't aligned. Whicker is clearly town, so that's simple, right? Well, not entirely. We know that fake items exist in the game. So there is that problem. But wait, there's more! If the finding is true, then it becomes an interesting situation with regards to Touch. How is that, you ask? Well, Swag was outing KSJ as a framer. This is important. Oh, but swag was scum and probably lying. Yes, that is possible. He was clearly lying about KSJ framing him. But that doesn't mean that he was lying about KSJ being a framer. @MWil23 and I know, from Death Note, that scum factions will absolutely try and take down other scum factions. We saw it when Rags outed Swag in that game. I've also seen scum work together to overrun town (Gopher's World). So I absolutely can't discount the idea that swag was telling the truth about KSJ and they were separate scum factions. That has to be considered. If KSJ is a framer, it's theoretically possible that he set a frame up on Touch which is why Whicker and I both received evil aligned results. If the feeling on Jason is strong scum lean at the current point in time, there's absolutely merit on voting him first on the basis of releasing Whicker's ability fully into this game without impediment. But there's certainly risk involved there as the idea that he just doesn't know what's going on is possible, if slightly improbable. Everything he says is contradictory, including most recently indicating he would never go against Malf, but I'm pretty sure that he actually roleblocked malf N1 lol. I completely threw out the frame talk because I assumed it was just Swag trying to create havoc /save his own skin. so I take back what I said earlier about it not being possible to get “evil aligned” result on me. If there is a framer, then it’s absolutely possible and IMO exactly what happened. I welcomed whicker to come investigate me because I knew what it would come back as. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Llamalover Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 I was worried about our new polar bear friend, what with all the orcas around. A quick google search shows that fortunately, orcas do not eat polar bears as I once thought. Anyways, praise be our new arctic god. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Llamalover Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 <I also move a safe distance away from our fierce new king> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, theuntouchable said: I completely threw out the frame talk because I assumed it was just Swag trying to create havoc /save his own skin. so I take back what I said earlier about it not being possible to get “evil aligned” result on me. If there is a framer, then it’s absolutely possible and IMO exactly what happened. I welcomed whicker to come investigate me because I knew what it would come back as. How much are you regretting claiming pink other aligned right now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 43 minutes ago, MWil23 said: @Forge I’m tracking you big time, but would orca really give a pink aligned other? I could plausibly see a Touch being framed, but pink aligned other means orca hates touch and probably town too for that matter. <I go stand behind everyone in the ice room> @The Orca I'm not going to get too caught up in the color bit. That's sort of a dealer's choice thing and maybe Orca is just advocating for breast cancer awareness, I don't know. Do I believe Touch? I don't know. There's a lot of information out there, and there's at least enough that I can doubt whether or not he's the correct lynch at the current point in time. I do know that no decision should be made before a result on Cheesehawk's alignment comes back. If he comes back evil aligned, I think that is a huge deal. Touch also received one of the boxes that malf received, I believe, and his "death" was verified in thread by host (n2 write up). Similar death to Malf as well in that he was basically liquified internally. Touch just came back. That's a pretty substantial piece of evidence (albeit, still somewhat circumstantial) that there is a framer in our midst because I don't know how an evil aligned scum faction would set that up. If cheese is Creepy aligned, then obviously Touch being evil aligned is still in play, but I can't know that until after Cheese flips. How would they know he'd get brought back to life if they used Cheese's ability on him? That's a huge risk to take. Granted, Swag and Touch have the guts to try something like that for the long game, but man, that just seems insanely risky and improbable. The simplest solution is often the correct one, and I don't think that kind of plan is simple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theuntouchable Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, MWil23 said: How much are you regretting claiming pink other aligned right now? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 I’m 💯 with Forge and based on thread play want to believe Touch, but forge being other makes me trust it less and Touch being red lettered is a concern. I’m great with any of Jason/Squire/Touch today and good holding off touch another day. Jason I don’t buy the newbie slip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Oh Pickle is still scum too btw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Forge said: omg, nooooooooo!!!! <runs after Digger before the prehistoric monster can get him and picks him back up before running out of the ice room with his entire family> You charge in and grab Digger right as the east is fully awake. You fly out of the ice room. The beast has smelled food and charges after you 1 hour ago, MWil23 said: @Forge I’m tracking you big time, but would orca really give a pink aligned other? I could plausibly see a Touch being framed, but pink aligned other means orca hates touch and probably town too for that matter. <I go stand behind everyone in the ice room> @The Orca You are standing behind everyone 33 minutes ago, Llamalover said: <I also move a safe distance away from our fierce new king> You were a safe distance away, the distance is narrowing though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 <runs back into the main room where Nacho's body still lay, picks it up and hurls it out of the room toward the prehistoric polar bear then runs up toward the slide waiting to see if the beast follows or feasts on the corpse> @The Orca Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 5 hours ago, The Orca said: Vote Count 4 Touch- Whicker, Slappy, Dabyole, N4L, 2 Bantle- Touch, Mwil 1 Slappy- Counselor 1 Squire- Bantle 2 hours ago, Counselor said: Slappy 2 hours ago, jasonwbantle said: Forge wasn’t talking about me so no idea what that means lol I’ve never seen squire in chat one time. I’ll vote squire and block squire then we good? 28 minutes ago, MWil23 said: I’m 💯 with Forge and based on thread play want to believe Touch, but forge being other makes me trust it less and Touch being red lettered is a concern. I’m great with any of Jason/Squire/Touch today and good holding off touch another day. Jason I don’t buy the newbie slip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 I’m scum and y’all just letting me slide lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Orca Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Forge said: <runs back into the main room where Nacho's body still lay, picks it up and hurls it out of the room toward the prehistoric polar bear then runs up toward the slide waiting to see if the beast follows or feasts on the corpse> @The Orca The beasts loses interests in you momentarily and chows down on Nacho Edited October 23, 2019 by The Orca Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 I don’t get how Friday the 13th has no ability Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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