SwAg Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Suppose the starting ratio is 12 - 7, in terms of generic Town and generic Scum. (~35% scum) Suppose roles are assigned randomly in order of the setup. You have three Town verified in the first four, and on scum verified. Then there is a block of unknown, with verified Town bookends. The likelihood that you have that many consecutive Town entities in a 9 - 6 distribution odds game is single digit percentages. Maybe go take a remedial statistics course instead of derping LOL ITS RNG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwAg Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Tk3 said: This is a bad look for you I've always thought you were a blowhard, but this is the first time I really judged Are you an actuary by chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nazgul Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Just now, SwAg said: Suppose the starting ratio is 12 - 7, in terms of generic Town and generic Scum. (~35% scum) Suppose roles are assigned randomly in order of the setup. You have three Town verified in the first four, and on scum verified. Then there is a block of unknown, with verified Town bookends. The likelihood that you have that many consecutive Town entities in a 9 - 6 distribution odds game is single digit percentages. Maybe go take a remedial statistics course instead of derping LOL ITS RNG Neat. It also has no real game relation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwAg Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 (edited) Just now, Nazgul said: Neat. It also has no real game relation. It has a bearing on actuarial science in terms of probability of distribution, which is relevant to the game. Edited October 5, 2019 by SwAg of distribution Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nazgul Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 1 minute ago, SwAg said: It has a bearing on actuarial science in terms of probability of distribution, which is relevant to the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwAg Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Tk3 said: post removed @TheKillerNacho punishment Quote You may edit posts you made in the last 5 minutes to fix typos or to add something but do not edit any post but your latest post, and do not add or remove a vote. If you abuse this, I will punish your team at my discretion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, SwAg said: Suppose the starting ratio is 12 - 7, in terms of generic Town and generic Scum. (~35% scum) Suppose roles are assigned randomly in order of the setup. You have three Town verified in the first four, and on scum verified. Then there is a block of unknown, with verified Town bookends. The likelihood that you have that many consecutive Town entities in a 9 - 6 distribution odds game is single digit percentages. Maybe go take a remedial statistics course instead of derping LOL ITS RNG First of all, single digit percentages is well within the level of reasonability. Second of all, the roles were locked in before the game started - therefore the fact that those roles outside of your band have been revealed do not change the % likelihood of the ones within the range. It's a variation of the Monty Hall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Just now, SwAg said: @TheKillerNacho punishment You're a real turd today Crying to the teacher Respect yourself a little more, please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 I'm out for a while.. this hasn't been pleasant unfortunately I'll be back before night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Llamalover Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 1 minute ago, rackcs said: Yes but obviously I know I'm not scum. And that's just wrong about the votes things. Don't sit there and make up things about me while simultaneously hand waving away the very real mwil thing as "odd" Listen, this may be my first game, but I think it might be considered a "bad move" killing one of your teammates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, Llamalover said: The odds are equal that you're scum too. I will admit Mwil was odd, but I've been on the right side of the votes so far. I can't say the same for you, unfortunately. If we are going off the premise that the game has 1 large mafia faction (not 2 smaller factions), it is easier for mafia to be on the right side of the votes since they are the informed minority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nazgul Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Llamalover said: Listen, this may be my first game, but I think it might be considered a "bad move" killing one of your teammates. To be fair; this is a common occurrence it seems. Especially if the teammate is basically dead to rights. It's a cheap attempt at being able to say "Look! I voted -scum- out!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 12 minutes ago, Tk3 said: post removed I'm sure your intentions were Noble, but you lost your vote today. If you edit the content of a post again, I will be forced to mod kill. Thanks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwAg Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, Tk3 said: First of all, single digit percentages is well within the level of reasonability. Second of all, the roles were locked in before the game started - therefore the fact that those roles outside of your band have been revealed do not change the % likelihood of the ones within the range. It's a variation of the Monty Hall This has nothing to do with roles. If you're assuming random alignment distribution. This is literally how statistics work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 VC Mwil23 - 4 - SwAg, Forge, kingseanjohn, MWil23 Llamalover - 2 - squire12, Matts4313 Yet to vote: rackcs, Llamalover, Nazgul, Ifirit, Ramuh Can't vote (punishment): Tk3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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