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wwhickok

Reality of Colbert.

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In an attempt to be fair I have also listed the players that are relevant that were taken in said draft but may not simply be on our team anymore. However when you go through the list you will notice there is a patter that gets worse as I get closer to the current year.

 

2010 - 10 Players Drafted, 1 on current roster (Pouncey) , (AB, Emmanuel.Sanders drafted)

2011 - 7 players drafted, 1 on current roster (Cam Heyward) / (Marcus Gilbert drafted)

2012 - 9 players drafted, 1 on current roster (DD)

2013 - 9 players drafted, 1 on current roster (,Vince williams) / (Bell, Jarvis Jones* drafted)

2014 - 9 players drafted, 1 on current roster (Tuitt) (Shazier, technically on roster was drafted) (Bryant drafted)

2015 - 8 players drafted, 2 on current roster (Chickillo, Dupree) / (Jesse James drafted)

2016 - 7 players drafted - 4 on roster (Burns, TM, JH, SD)

2017 - 8 players drafted, 4 on roster (Juju, TJ, Cam Sutton, JC)

2018 - 7 players drafted - 5 on roster (MR, TE, JW, JS, CO)

2019 - 9 players drafted - all but 2 on roster.

 

So, imo, it's too early to make a judgement on 2018 and 2019 but 2018 was a successful draft 

However, this offseason we will most likely lose a couple players and cut a couple players. The results?

Just one player (Chickillo) from the 2015 and 2016 draft combined will have gotten a 2nd contract and NONE of them will be on the 2020 roster. None will remain most likely from the 2013 draft either.

In the time span between 2010-2016, there'll be just 4 players from those drafts on the current roster.

This suggests that there is a large chance that in a coupe.seasons we will look back and only remnants will exist of the 2017, 18, and 19 draft.

The player evaluation and selection under Colbert overall has been pathetically bad. For a team that claims to build through the draft, Colbert isnt actually very good at it.

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You're right that he hasn't drafted all that well recently.  However, it's hard to say that objectively without knowing more context.  What's the success rate of teams drafting in the back half of the draft?  How have other teams drafted who have been in similar positions?  You have to keep in mind that from 2015-207 or so we may have had the best roster in the NFL but then underperformed.  That tends to happen to everybody facing the patriots. 

We've lost shazier (injury), bell (offered him a better contract than he got), and brown (crazy) to circumstances somewhat beyond the control of the GM.  Not many organizations can deal with losses like that.

I'm pretty blah on Colbert right now.  This season is the perfect example of what's wrong.  They should've been aggressive with making moves in previous years when they were loaded with roster talent.  The one year when the circumstances suggest this ISN'T the year to give up draft capital, you trade your first round pick despite knowing your HOF QB is out for the year.  It is just kind of bizarre and I'd love to hear a frank conversation behind his thought process behind some of these trades (and I don't hate the trades, I just feel pretty blah about them).

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15 minutes ago, Steelers22 said:

bell (offered him a better contract than he got), ... to circumstances somewhat beyond the control of the GM. 

Sorry but that was in Colberts control.

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29 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Sorry but that was in Colberts control.

For all the things I'd knock Colbert for, the Bell situation isnt one of them.   I wouldnt have given him the money he wanted.  Not worth it.

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6 minutes ago, FourThreeMafia said:

For all the things I'd knock Colbert for, the Bell situation isnt one of them.   I wouldnt have given him the money he wanted.  Not worth it.

I agree and there's definitely other situations, like AB, that come into play.

Javon, we just can't afford or else he would be back . Most likely wont be though

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7 hours ago, FourThreeMafia said:

For all the things I'd knock Colbert for, the Bell situation isnt one of them.   I wouldnt have given him the money he wanted.  Not worth it.

how has he done with the jets xD

 

7 hours ago, wwhickok said:

I agree and there's definitely other situations, like AB, that come into play.

Javon, we just can't afford or else he would be back . Most likely wont be though

Javon should stay and let dupree walk. Hargrave is downhill on pass rush, I doubt many can block him with 1 OL. Same applies to Tuitt and that is a lethal DT tandem  (when they are actually out there) . They compliment each other too, yet for some reason they rarely see the field at the same time. How many snaps did Hargrave get?

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Dont get me wrong, I do hope they find a way to keep Gravedigger I just dont know that they will and don't expect them to

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3 hours ago, 3rivers said:

Javon should stay and let dupree walk. Hargrave is downhill on pass rush, I doubt many can block him with 1 OL. Same applies to Tuitt and that is a lethal DT tandem  (when they are actually out there) .

YES!!!!  100%.  Should be a priority.  I'd rather make do at edge with a second round kid and a vet than give Dupree more money.

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Also this post isnt to just illustrate what Colbert has done poorly, if it were I wouldnt have included the names of successful players he drafted.

It's to illustrate an honest picture of his success and failures.

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13 hours ago, wwhickok said:

In the time span between 2010-2016, there'll be just 4 players from those drafts on the current roster.

The average NFL career is 3.3 years, so going back 10 years on any team isnt going to show great results and the way contracts work with rookie now, isnt going to show retention. Percentages of total players in the NFL from 2010-2012 is 16%, 18%, 23%. Having so few players on your roster really isnt that crazy during a lot of that time period. The Eagles have 6 and the Seahawks have 5. 

13 hours ago, wwhickok said:

The player evaluation and selection under Colbert overall has been pathetically bad. For a team that claims to build through the draft, Colbert isnt actually very good at it.

So what are we judging here? Drafting or retention? Because if its drafting, you cant discount players that served a purpose for their first contract like Sylvester Stevenson on ST or Markus Wheaton who produced for us, but ultimately got passed over for other people (the actual reality of the league). 

Bell, Gilbert, Beachum, Sanders, Brown, Shazier, Bryant, James all are drafting hits, but all gone for separate reasons other than Colbert sucks at drafting. Its actually the opposite of sucking at talent evaluation because Bell was replaced because he wanted too much money and we drafted a guy they were high on (I would say correctly), Gilberts injuries had other guys step up successfully where the difference in money didnt make sense, Sanders lost out because we drafted an even better player a couple rounds later and couldnt pay both, and James -- well, I wish we kept James, but his quotes make it seem like he was happy to get out. 

These arguments never tell a full story. Cant we all just say that Colbert has gotten old and the entire organization and staff seem to be about 10 years behind in evaluation and playing style and agree to move on? My biggest criticism of Colbert is that he basically blanked a 4 years stretch that right now would be the meat of our upper roster and got aggressive too late to really catch up. He missed on Jones and Dupree, lost Shazier and any chance of Golson to bad luck, lost Bell because he was actually too good, and Burns and Davis both failed to improved from rookie years where they showed fairly well. So really all but 1 first or second round guy gone. It took until just this year to get aggressive -- trading up for Bush and actually making a huge splash for Fitzpatrick. I appreciate Wars comments the from yesterday regarding the hitting a handful of extra times in the rounds 4-7, but the highest percentage of that is trading fodder for fodder. The top two rounds cant go 1 for 8 over that stretch - that's where the real damage occurs. 

The last three drafts have a chance to be alright to pretty good, but that 4 year stretch of poor luck, poor evaluation, and poor coaching killed the roster. We dont have to sit her and nitpick why he is a failure based on retention of 8 years ago -- that 4 year stretch is a pretty good representation of why this roster lacks talent and depth (though, welcome to the NFL on that one). 

None of this is science, its all art all the opinions are mostly subjective. The Seahawks had what everyone considered for awhile to be one of the best GMs because of his 3 year stretch of being awesome at the draft. Then, he got not so good at the draft because its the draft. Then he had to pay his QB, something we have been doing since 08. Then all his really good players went elsewhere because the money. That's the reality of the ebb and flow of the NFL player pool. 

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There's a formula out there that takes weighted draft position (less points for hitting on a 1st as opposed to a 6th; less points for busting on a 6th as opposed to a 1st); games started; production; did they play out their 1st contract (basically a boost for late round picks that don't start but are ST players); did they get a second contract with the drafting team (so did they do well enough for you to retain, and tags count here); did they get a second contract in the NFL (this would cover a guy like Markus Wheaton, good enough to be in the NFL but not good enough for the Steelers at the time; but you do get dinged based on the production of the player).

The scale goes from 0-100 with 60 being an average grade.  I'll try to find the site again, but I think Colbert game out with a 68-ish grade, and they highlighted Hargraves, James, Williams as reasons his grade was up there.  For reference Howie Roseman was the highest grade of 88.  The lowest was the Miami Dolphins GM's with a 45.

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I am honestly not judging anything specifically. I'm putting the reality of his draft classes out there. Perhaps if I am judging something its more about retention and how the lack of long-term quality players has helped cause struggles of getting to the SB.

How you look at the information I provided is up to you. I dont think theres a wrong way to do it. I thought itd spark an interesting discussion. I wasn't wrong.

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1 hour ago, wwhickok said:

I dont think theres a wrong way to do it.

That's where I differ, but maybe I just differ from everyone else. I dont think there is a right way to do it. And often times the conversation and the view points are based on the subjective views of the person carrying the conversation and not the objective views of the reality of the whole roster construction experience. 

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