Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

37 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

So far I'm only getting Eagles props between the 4 teams playing today. Don't like any of them. Hurts has really struggled inside the NFCE, so even in what feels like a cupcake matchup, I don't trust him to take advantage or to stay healthy for 4Q to cash any tickets on him. The same applies to his pass catchers, who already show inconsistent usage in a normal game. Sanders is somewhat appealing on the ground, but with his propensity for in-game injuries and Philadelphia having their full backfield activated (Howard/Gainwell/Scott) there's too much risk that someone else gets the hot hand treatment. 

 

On standby for the other 3 teams to be released. Gerald Everett should be a nice play for Seattle today, either for yardage or ATTD. I agree with BF on Eskridge. Kupp might be an auto-hit with the shape Seattle's secondary is currently in. I also will be looking out for the Antonio Gibson Under. He's been good as of late but if Gilbert is under center, I trust this Philly D to clamp down on him. 

Eskridge IMO is a 2-4U confidence play if we get the Gabriel Davis treatment (unknown 2nd WR with established alpha WR - get O2.5 catches / O35-40 type props). I absolutely love the TD prop, too.   

I can't stress this enough - ppl who are even mildly interested, take the Eskridge prop now - the Eskrdige TD +550/+6000 2+ reflects the idea he's their WR3-4.   As soon as Lockett-is-out news comes out, Eskridge TD props drop massively in return value.  This is the time to the the shot.  If you don't like it, fine - but if you wait to be sure, you lose all the potential extra value. 

I'm a little leery of going more than that as I've been really on a hot streak, but don't want to push my luck (let's face it, LV +180 was great, and they were the better team, but that awful 2H almost gave it away).   

I added the Cam Sims +2200 TD and Kendall Blanton +650 TD prop (which has already dropped to +500 TD) since I posted, today it's the TD props which are over-inflated by leaving them up before the final Covid reports are out.

Edited December 21, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Getting some Rams props now and a few I like. 

 

Officially hit Odell O48.5 receiving (-110) and Odell O4.5 catches (+130). Against a defense missing Jamal Adams, Tre Brown, and DJ Reed, playing soft zone all day long daring you to beat them underneath, this really shouldn't be a hard one to hit. I realize he's not the same receiver, but imagine getting these lines with this juice for Robert Woods. He has 22 targets over the last 3 weeks and his longest catch of each game was 54, 27, and 40. That's a single catch nearly netting us his yardage total. 

I haven't made it official yet, but I'm strongly considering Sony O44.5 rushing. They have Henderson at O/U 52.5, and I'm not buying him coming in and taking the lion's share of the carries back. There's a solid chance the Rams get up early, and I want whoever will be responsible for killing clock with Seahawks DT Bryan Mone out for this game as well. 

Edited December 21, 2021 by SaveOurSonics

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Getting some Rams props now and a few I like. 

 

Officially hit Odell O48.5 receiving (-110) and Odell O4.5 catches (+130). Against a defense missing Jamal Adams, Tre Brown, and DJ Reed that plays soft zone all day long daring you to beat them underneath, this really shouldn't be a hard one to hit. I realize he's not the same receiver, but imagine getting these lines with this juice for Robert Woods. He has 22 targets over the last 3 weeks and his longest catch of each game was 54, 27, and 40. That's a single catch nearly netting us his yardage total. 

I haven't made it official yet, but I'm strongly considering Sony O44.5 rushing. They have Henderson at O/U 52.5, and I'm not buying him coming in and taking the lion's share of the carries back. There's a solid chance the Rams get up early, and I want whoever will be responsible for killing clock with Seahawks DT Bryan Mone out for this game as well. 

Love the OBJ prop, because with no TE and no Woods, and Kupp going to get a lot of attention, has to be Van Jefferson & OBJ, and the Rams have been trying to cultivate a Stafford-OBJ connection.  This is the rare time you're getting the props out sooner than me, I'm still waiting.  I'd easily go 2U on that O4.5 +130 prop and O48.5.

[SaveOurSonics]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

has to be Van Jefferson & OBJ, and the Rams have been trying to cultivate a Stafford-OBJ connection.

And from what I can tell, Van has started to carve out more of a scarcely used deep threat role in that offense. As you said, McVay has been drawing up plays to manufacture touches to Odell. Decided to throw another U on his receptions prop due to your confidence 😂

[SaveOurSonics]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I also will be looking out for the Antonio Gibson Under. He's been good as of late but if Gilbert is under center, I trust this Philly D to clamp down on him.

And it's been released. O/U 65.5. Do you expect WFT to win tonight with Gilbert at QB? Gibson has hit the U65.5 in 6 of the team's 7 losses for an 86% hit rate. My logic yesterday for taking the Chubb Over was that he's far too talented, the CLE OLine is still above average, and Oakland's defense is bad. Whereas, I'm not sold on Gibson's talent, the WFT OLine is decimated without Brandon Scherff, and Philly's defense can effectively stack the box and still eliminate the perimeter threats with their secondary. 

Lock it in. AGibson U65.5 rushing (-110) 1U.

[Broncofan]

Just got PIT +10 2.2U to win 2U before the Covid news hit.

[SaveOurSonics]

Alright I think I'm gonna call it for the day. Thought about hitting the Sony Over or the Henderson Under but I've got enough units out already and there's a lot of variance on what could happen with that backfield. Here's my official card: 

 

Rams+Eagles ML parlay (-110) 3U

SEA/LAR U53.5 + PHI/WFT U48 Teaser (-120) 2U

Odell O48.5 Receiving (-110) 2U 

Odell O4.5 Receptions (+130) 2U 

AGibson U65.5 Rushing (-110) 1U

 

Really hope my streak of 2U prop losers ends today. 

[Broncofan]

Still waiting on Eskridge, but while I wait, I did see one prop I liked for PHI - Jalen Hurts O1.5 pass TD's +160.   WFT is such a pass funnel D, and they don't match up well either Devonta Smith or Goedert, that I'm willing to go here.

Summary:

PHI -5.5 (now -9.0)

Jalen Hurts O1.5 pass TD's +160

Devonta Smith O49.5 rec yards

D'wayne Eskridge rec / rec yard props (???)

OBJ rec / rec yard props (???; still not out yet)

D'wayne Eskridge +550 TD / +6000 2+ (0.7U/0.3U)

Burton +650 TD (now +500) (0.7U)

Garrett Gilbert +1100 rush/rec TD (0.6U)

Cam Sims +2200 TD (0.6U)

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Just got PIT +10 2.2U to win 2U before the Covid news hit.

I'm going to back another play now even though it's so far away, with my PIT +10 2U for Week 16...and that's LAR -3 @ MIN, 2.2U to win 2U. 

Why would I do that when LAR hasn't even played yet?   For one simple reason - LAR has now had their major Covid-19 wave hit.   Make no mistake, Omicron's ability to infect vaxxed ppl is pretty much putting every team that hasn't encountered still at risk - and as we've just seen by the CLE (only 2 guys came back, 1 more got infected) / WFT (so many guys still out) / LAR (OBJ & Ramsey did come back, but others didn't) / SEA (Lockett) outbreaks, the new criteria don't make players test negative that much sooner.

Don't get wrong - I wouldn't back an iffy play for a favorite just because of this.  But I like LAR-3 before anyways, and if there's a major MIN outbreak, then we could see the line balloon - and so I'm happy to take the 2U shot (not the 12.2U shot I took with LV though lol).

So 2 plays for Week 16:

PIT +10 @ KC  2.2U to win 2U (line now down)

LAR -3 @ MIN  2.2U to win 2U 

BOL!

[SaveOurSonics]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Rams+Eagles ML parlay (-110) 3U

SEA/LAR U53.5 + PHI/WFT U48 Teaser (-120) 2U

Odell O48.5 Receiving (-110) 2U 

Odell O4.5 Receptions (+130) 2U 

AGibson U65.5 Rushing (-110) 1U

Alright, adding one more since it just became available 😅

Gerald Everett O3.5 Receptions (-114) 1U 

It was either this or the yards (33.5) and I opted for this one as being more likely. With Tyler out, Russell will have very few trusted options available to him. Ramsey should lock up DK for the most part and I don't see Russ putting too much faith in the rookie (Eskridge) or sophomore (Swain). I could easily see Everett double this number today. The only game script where I don't see this hitting is if Seattle is able to somehow establish the run with Penny. 

Edited December 21, 2021 by SaveOurSonics

[agarcia34]

Haven’t looked at the props yet but I just teased Philly to -3 and Rams to -1.5 for -120 

I am interested in a Eskridge yard prop. Won’t be high and will get his chances. Can’t seem to find one anywhere tho

Edited December 21, 2021 by agarcia34

[agarcia34]

13 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

Haven’t looked at the props yet but I just teased Philly to -3 and Rams to -1.5 for -120 

I am interested in a Eskridge yard prop. Won’t be high and will get his chances. Can’t seem to find one anywhere tho

Eskridge over 27.5

Rams tend to play a lot of soft coverage so could see some easy completions and a jet sweep for Eskridge is always an option seen it happen a couple of times. I’ll take my chances with this with such a low number on a guy who’s gonna get his chances.

[Broncofan]

Sad puppy.  Book decided to offer no SEA LAR player props.   That’s a first. 

[Broncofan]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Still waiting on Eskridge, but while I wait, I did see one prop I liked for PHI - Jalen Hurts O1.5 pass TD's +160.   WFT is such a pass funnel D, and they don't match up well either Devonta Smith or Goedert, that I'm willing to go here.

Summary:

PHI -5.5 (now -9.0)

Jalen Hurts O1.5 pass TD's +160

Devonta Smith O49.5 rec yards

D'wayne Eskridge rec / rec yard props (???)

OBJ rec / rec yard props (???; still not out yet)

D'wayne Eskridge +550 TD / +6000 2+ (0.7U/0.3U)

Burton +650 TD (now +500) (0.7U)

Garrett Gilbert +1100 rush/rec TD (0.6U)

Cam Sims +2200 TD (0.6U)

 

 

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Sad puppy.  Book decided to offer no SEA LAR player props.   That’s a first. 

Well as it turns out...lucky puppy.   My OBJ/Eskridge props would have gone poof.   That was pretty painful football to watch tonight.

ATS - PHI -5.5 was even a sweat, but it hits. 1-0. +1U

Player props - Hurts O1.5 TD was soooo unlucky - 2x players tackled at 1-2 yard line, twice Hurts runs it in, and a 3rd time, he misses wide open guys and PHI settles for a FG.   Oh well, that's why it's a +money prop, even if it's a great value it's a 50-50 play.   D-Smith really hurt because after 2 drives and 10 mins in the game he's at 2/33 and feeling great...and then POOF.   Oh well.   -2.0U

TD props - Burton & Gilbert didn't sniff any EZ plays, while Sims had 1 EZ look but was covered, and Wilson missed Eskridge 1x on an EZ skinny post.    -3.0U

So that's a tough -4.0U finish, but realistically, I can't help but be happy with the week, that LV 12.2U +180 ML / RACE to 15 / U42 and a strong Sunday card, while a bad MNF & TuesNF takes the wind out that Sunday's & LV ML's sails, still a 9.6U week, moving along.   

On to Week 16!

_________________________

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 15 

ATS 46-41; 11-16 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +37.2U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15). 

Player props - 144-137, +39.2U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-64, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +46.9U profit so far 

Net balance:  +123.3U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U)

 

[SaveOurSonics]

6 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Rams+Eagles ML parlay (-110) 3U

SEA/LAR U53.5 + PHI/WFT U48 Teaser (-120) 2U

Odell O48.5 Receiving (-110) 2U 

Odell O4.5 Receptions (+130) 2U 

AGibson U65.5 Rushing (-110) 1U

GEverett O3.5 Receptions (-110) 1U

And the curse of the 2U player props continues. OBJ with the double sting 🤦🏻‍♂️ Naturally the 1U props both hit easy. Still a +3U day but should’ve been better.