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BStanRamFan

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agarcia34

agarcia34

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Yeah, I thought they abounded the run game a little early despite being down like they were. Very weird play calling refusing to run on short yardage downs. Would have thought they would still use the run game to set up the passing game with the PA but it’s unfortunate 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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14 hours ago, N4L said:

Took them +3 in the second half as well 

NE isn't one to come back. The colts are more physical on both sides of the ball tonight. Their DL is pretty stout. They are making Mac beat them 

Meanwhile, you cant stop JT? Yeah, I'll take +3 for + money all day long 

Indy to win the AFC at 15-1  or SB at 30-1 (with E/W prop to get there) was the most tempting play this week.    I took it b4 the game as I had IND -2 & figured the odds were going to drop.  
 

Reich / Wentz combo is the one thing in their way plus their need for a 2nd CB (Wentz making boneheaded mistakes and Reich letting him get the chance on 1st down late, especially in games with Pittman out or triple covered - we’ve seen that b4).   But for the odds it’s not crazy.   

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Broncofan

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On 12/17/2021 at 12:33 AM, Broncofan said:

 

 

OK with TNF updated, here's the Sat/Sun card, with some notable adjustments....and by sheer dumb luck, the PHI line has ballooned due to WFT Covid (no idea on that one), and MIA line went nuts just because NYJ kinda sucks right now (sorry Jets fans).

Just so the remaining Week 15 plays are in 1 place:

 

SAT DOUBLEHEADER

LV 4U ML +180, LV +3 1H 2.2U (to win 2U), LV-CLE U42 2.2U, LV RACE to 15/20 1U (+150/+250/+450/+750) - 12.2U to win 27.4U - self explanatory from prior posts.   Why it pays to get ahead of breaking news when it appears online.  Even if it loses, the value here is insane (and obv I'm not counting on it to lose lol).   EDIT POST-TNF:  If the odds keep getting better in CLE's favor (they're now +3.5 and ML +170 lol), it offers an easy 3-4U hedge in-game if LV takes the lead at +300/+400 odds, and basically guarantee profit either way, will definitely explore.

IND -2 vs NE (PENDING) - this is about the matchups; IND's run game to minimize TO's / sacks vs. NE's D, and their run D forcing the game more into Mac Jones' hands - the only neutralizers are TO potential with Wentz and the massive coaching advantage (Reich still sucks).   I'm hoping the line moves more to NE as time goes by TBH, why I'm willing to wait for now.   If LV goes my way, I'm going to take any IND line of -3 or less, but hoping waiting actually gets more action on BB & NE, and makes IND more profitable (and with that LV outlay, wise to wait regardless lol).


SUNDAY

HOU +140 ML, RACE to 20/25 (+200/+350) @ JAX - yes, I'm taking Davis Mills over Trevor Lawrence.   Ask me this before the reg. season starts, and I'd say the 4 Horsemen were riding before I'd see this.  Well, the 7th seal might be breaking here.    This isn't a reflection on Lawrence - but how inept the JAX coaching staff is in game planning, deploying personnel, and managing the game.   And that's saying a LOT when I'm comparing them to the Texans.   

CIN +110 ML, RACE to 20/25/30 (+150/+250/+400) @ DEN - CIN opened up at -1.5, and then public money went hard on Denver.   In a TO-neutral game, Burrow's ability to throw vs. pressure, the weapons he has, and I'm presuming Joe Mixon is healthy again, this is a problem.    On the flip side, CIN's run D is decent, which spells trouble for DEN's O - if we're up 2+ scores, we can lean on the run game, and TeddyB's shortcomings as a QB are limited.   Get behind, and we're dead in the water.    Fangio is 1-22 when trailing at halftime.   This is a game where if you take CIN, you take the RACE's, since there's even more implied value.  

PHI -5 vs. WFT (now -9)- with PHI getting healthier & rested off a bye, and WFT losing key players in Logan Thomas, and a very iffy Terry Mclaurin and JD McKissic, this really is a line I think will only increase as time goes by, so I'm willing take this favorite now.

MIA -8.5 vs. NYJ  (now -10.5 lol)- I know, I know, it's 8.5 pts in an intradivisional game.  The thing is, the Jets are absolutely dead in the water on O now with Michael Carter & Elijah Moore & Corey Davis on IR.  Those are literally the 3 matchup problems MIA had to worry about....now, it's a motley crew.   And Tua has Waddle/Parker & Gesicki, and likely Myles Gaskin, as his 4 main weapons.   This IMO will be a 27-10 type game, I'm happy to take this before the line increases more. 

 

So I've put in bets to win 1U on ATS, and the RACE's above at 0.5U as usual (except for LV's 1U each) - and I put in a 0.5U parley on 3 combos: 

LV ML +180 / IND ML -130 / PHI -3 -160 / CIN ML +110 at +2100 

LV ML +180 / IND ML -130 / PHI -3 -170 (moved up just after I bet #1) / MIA -6 -160 / CIN ML +110 for +2200 (EDIT:  HOU PULLED so go from +5700 to +2200)

Both parleys I can hedge CIN's game with DEN as the last leg. 


So that's a whopping 21.7U I've already put on for Week 14 (assuming I bet IND) - but with 12.7U on LV props alone.   Crazy that I've become a MAJOR Raiders fan this week - but team allegiances don't care about $ opps lol.  BOL!

 

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 15 ATS:

ATS 41-41; 10-16 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +21.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS). 

Player props - 144-134, +40.5U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-58, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +50.9U profit so far 

Net balance:  +112.5U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 TNF - -1.2U)

With news that BUF is now missing both Dawkins and Feliciano on their OL, and might actually shift other players over to cover (a terrible idea IMO) - I'm adding CAR +14.5 @ BUF to the above card.   If CAR goes -2 in TO's this could get dicey, but in a TO-neutral game and CAR's pass rush, this should stay within 7-10 pts or so, getting above 14 is massive.

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N4L

N4L

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57 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

With news that BUF is now missing both Dawkins and Feliciano on their OL, and might actually shift other players over to cover (a terrible idea IMO) - I'm adding CAR +14.5 @ BUF to the above card.   If CAR goes -2 in TO's this could get dicey, but in a TO-neutral game and CAR's pass rush, this should stay within 7-10 pts or so, getting above 14 is massive.

Carolinas OL is just so bad and their QB situation is a complete mess. I expect the bills D to handle them very well today. I was eyeing the under in CARs team total but it's 14 and thats just such a short number I think there's too much risk

Josh Allen is hurt, with Dawkins and feliciano out, I am going to play the under 43 in that game with confidence

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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17 minutes ago, N4L said:

Carolinas OL is just so bad and their QB situation is a complete mess. I expect the bills D to handle them very well today. I was eyeing the under in CARs team total but it's 14 and thats just such a short number I think there's too much risk

Josh Allen is hurt, with Dawkins and feliciano out, I am going to play the under 43 in that game with confidence

The CAR K is now out - they have no one.   With that news I love the U43.  Great call.  Changing CAR +14.5 to U43.0

 

 

 

 

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Broncofan

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On 12/17/2021 at 12:33 AM, Broncofan said:

 

 

OK with TNF updated, here's the Sat/Sun card, with some notable adjustments....and by sheer dumb luck, the PHI line has ballooned due to WFT Covid (no idea on that one), and MIA line went nuts just because NYJ kinda sucks right now (sorry Jets fans).

Just so the remaining Week 15 plays are in 1 place:

 

SAT DOUBLEHEADER

LV 4U ML +180, LV +3 1H 2.2U (to win 2U), LV-CLE U42 2.2U, LV RACE to 15/20 1U (+150/+250/+450/+750) - 12.2U to win 27.4U - self explanatory from prior posts.   Why it pays to get ahead of breaking news when it appears online.  Even if it loses, the value here is insane (and obv I'm not counting on it to lose lol).   EDIT POST-TNF:  If the odds keep getting better in CLE's favor (they're now +3.5 and ML +170 lol), it offers an easy 3-4U hedge in-game if LV takes the lead at +300/+400 odds, and basically guarantee profit either way, will definitely explore.

IND -2 vs NE (PENDING) - this is about the matchups; IND's run game to minimize TO's / sacks vs. NE's D, and their run D forcing the game more into Mac Jones' hands - the only neutralizers are TO potential with Wentz and the massive coaching advantage (Reich still sucks).   I'm hoping the line moves more to NE as time goes by TBH, why I'm willing to wait for now.   If LV goes my way, I'm going to take any IND line of -3 or less, but hoping waiting actually gets more action on BB & NE, and makes IND more profitable (and with that LV outlay, wise to wait regardless lol).


SUNDAY

HOU +140 ML, RACE to 20/25 (+200/+350) @ JAX - yes, I'm taking Davis Mills over Trevor Lawrence.   Ask me this before the reg. season starts, and I'd say the 4 Horsemen were riding before I'd see this.  Well, the 7th seal might be breaking here.    This isn't a reflection on Lawrence - but how inept the JAX coaching staff is in game planning, deploying personnel, and managing the game.   And that's saying a LOT when I'm comparing them to the Texans.   

CIN +110 ML, RACE to 20/25/30 (+150/+250/+400) @ DEN - CIN opened up at -1.5, and then public money went hard on Denver.   In a TO-neutral game, Burrow's ability to throw vs. pressure, the weapons he has, and I'm presuming Joe Mixon is healthy again, this is a problem.    On the flip side, CIN's run D is decent, which spells trouble for DEN's O - if we're up 2+ scores, we can lean on the run game, and TeddyB's shortcomings as a QB are limited.   Get behind, and we're dead in the water.    Fangio is 1-22 when trailing at halftime.   This is a game where if you take CIN, you take the RACE's, since there's even more implied value.  

PHI -5 vs. WFT (now -9)- with PHI getting healthier & rested off a bye, and WFT losing key players in Logan Thomas, and a very iffy Terry Mclaurin and JD McKissic, this really is a line I think will only increase as time goes by, so I'm willing take this favorite now.

MIA -8.5 vs. NYJ  (now -10.5 lol)- I know, I know, it's 8.5 pts in an intradivisional game.  The thing is, the Jets are absolutely dead in the water on O now with Michael Carter & Elijah Moore & Corey Davis on IR.  Those are literally the 3 matchup problems MIA had to worry about....now, it's a motley crew.   And Tua has Waddle/Parker & Gesicki, and likely Myles Gaskin, as his 4 main weapons.   This IMO will be a 27-10 type game, I'm happy to take this before the line increases more. 

 

So I've put in bets to win 1U on ATS, and the RACE's above at 0.5U as usual (except for LV's 1U each) - and I put in a 0.5U parley on 3 combos: 

LV ML +180 / IND ML -130 / PHI -3 -160 / CIN ML +110 at +2100 

LV ML +180 / IND ML -130 / PHI -3 -170 (moved up just after I bet #1) / MIA -6 -160 / CIN ML +110 for +2200 (EDIT:  HOU PULLED so go from +5700 to +2200)

Both parleys I can hedge CIN's game with DEN as the last leg. 


So that's a whopping 21.7U I've already put on for Week 14 (assuming I bet IND) - but with 12.7U on LV props alone.   Crazy that I've become a MAJOR Raiders fan this week - but team allegiances don't care about $ opps lol.  BOL!

 

 

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 14:

ATS 41-41; 9-16 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +20.4U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS). 

Player props - 143-131, +41.2U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-58, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +50.9U profit so far 

Net balance:  +112.5U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U  Week 15 - -1.2U)

 

On 12/18/2021 at 12:28 PM, Broncofan said:

To this card - 2 updates - with the reschedules, the line for LV-CLE has moved to LV +130 - which to me, is quite puzzling -since it's clearly done with the idea CLE will get a ton of players back.  I'm not sure this will be the case at all - on average, Covid+ players needed 7+ days to get 2 days of negative tests - under the new criteria, it would appear 6+ days would be the target, which only helps at most about 15-20 percent of players.    Maybe there's inside info the books have - but IMO this is an opportunity to take the LV+130 in books that allow voiding the bets pre-game as long as the odds aren't worse.   We saw how much the line moved when CLE lost all their guys - so it stands to reason it would move again towards LV if even 2/3 of the starters were still out.    To me, it's an opp to gain leverage, so please consider it if you didn't get in before - but ONLY if you have books that allow voiding the bets pre-game (and ask if you don't know).

 

OK, with player props missing, 6 that stand out, all good enough for 2U plays with the injury chaos:

D'onta Foreman O51.5 rush yards - the PIT rush D is a mess right, and TEN is leaning on the run.    I know it's a timeshare, but at that number, shouldn't matter. 

AJ Green O53.5 receiving yards - this was covered last week, when Nuk Hopkins doesn't play and there isn't a lockdown CB matchup, AJG pays off his props.  

Gabriel Davis O41.5 receiving yards - with Manny Sanders out, we see Davis become a full-time starter.    He's already seeing an 18% target share with part-time work, this is a smash spot for that number.

Devante Parker O54.5 receiving yards - with Jaylen Waddle out, Parker becomes the #1 - we've seen him absolutely smash in this spot before, Tua clearly trusts him, Waddle & Gesicki.   Gesicki is also a good play, but wanted to focus my exposure here.

Jerry Jeudy O4.5 catches +110 - on the surface, it looks risky, until you dig deeper in the CIN-DEN matchup.  CIN is 10th in rush DVOA on D, and likely no Javonte Williams, or very limited.   CIN's pass D is 22nd, and frankly, I still think CIN is the better team - which means DEN has to catch up.  When DEN has to throw it, Jeudy's the #1 target guy by a fair margin.   If I think CIN is the better team, there's no Javonte, I have to take this prop and even for 2U.

Alvin Kamara O4.5 catches +130 (SNF) - this was discussed already, but add in 2 more points - in the 4 reg. season games from 2019-20, before this 2021 matchup, Kamara has had 5+ catches vs. TAM's D.  And the fact Taysom Hill's finger injury is still an issue (he threw almost exclusively <20 yards downfield vs. NYJ), again a big confidence play.


2U each means I've put 12U on the above plays, plus a 0.5U +6200 6-leg parley for a total 12.5U risk on player props this Sunday.  BOL! 

 

10 hours ago, Broncofan said:

The CAR K is now out - they have no one.   With that news I love the U43.  Great call.  Changing CAR +14.5 to U43.0

 

 

 

 

 

OK so far, it's been a good weekend - with Kamara O4.5 catches +130 2U, PHI -5.5 and of course, the big 12.2U LV ML / RACE's & +3 1H all still yet to come.  Time to update a profitable Sunday slate, and Sat. night's IND-2 W (wasn't worth updating by itself lol):


ATS/ML/RACE

3-2 ATS/ML 1-1 RACE's - (CIN ML, HOU ML & IND -2 wins, with CAR-BUF U43 & MIA -8.5 L's) - won't lie, I got lucky in that I forgot to void my HOU bets with this being playoffs in my season-long leagues lol.   Still, my initial lean was right, so can't complain.  With the RACE's all hitting with HOU, this means I net a tidy +3.0U profit here. 

 

PLAYER PROPS (no TD props today):

I'm going to very sad if Josh Jacobs hits his rush prop tomorrow (which I'm going to hit if it's O70.5 or less tomorrow) - because he was the original 6th leg I was adding to my 5 players above and including Jeudy as a single bet, but not the +6200 0.5U 6-leg prop.   As it stands, I'm 4-1 and all the props hitting fairly comfortably (AJ Green O53.5 rec yards hit late, but D'onta Foreman O51.5 rush yards, Gabriel Davis O41.5 rec yards and Devante Parker O53.5 rec yards all hit super early.   Kamara's O4.5 catches prop still to come, and I'll add some MNF/TuesNF later too, but for now, at 2U each, this means I'm +6.0U so far.  

So that puts me at +7.8U for Week 15 so far, with only Kamara for tonight, and of course the mega LV-CLE game (and still so many CLE guys out, and only 1 more day to clear protocol).  

Now that DEN is no longer a realistic playoff team (which is what I wanted, to see HC Fangio & OC Shurmur and Lock/TeddyB gone for 2022 - lose the 2021 battle, win the franchise long-term war), I can now settle in and become a huge Kamara (2U) and Raider fan (LOL)!]

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 15 including SNF:

ATS 42-41; 10-16 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +25.9U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS). 

Player props - 144-135, +45.2U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-58, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +50.9U profit so far 

Net balance:  +122.0U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 up to SNF - +8.3U)

Edited by Broncofan
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Broncofan

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2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

With Godwin injured, willing to put a live +250 ML bet right now on NO 1U even with TAM driving.

And then Evans and then Fournette go down, and live +250 ML 1U bet wins.  Great - because Kamara's O4.5 catches +130 dies after Kamara gets 2 catches on their first scoring drive on 3 targets, and then gets 4 more missed targets in the 2Q and first drive of 3Q (to be fair he dropped one), and then for the last 25 mins - ZIP.     The unexpected NO-protecting-lead-with-decimated-TAM-O script kills that play for 2U.

Still, it's a +0.5U gain, for a net +8.3U profit for Week 15 (totals adjusted in post above).   Still have 12.2U on LV-CLE coming up tomorrow, and once the props are up, likely 2U on Josh Jacob's rush yard prop.   BOL!

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