Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

Dammit, I may need to pull the HOU ML bet now.  Was pretty clear the team had quit on Urban Meyer (and not blaming the team to be clear).  

Edited December 16, 2021 by Broncofan

[agarcia34]

Absolutely love KC tonight. Will wait for a couple of Chargers players to become active in hope of getting a -2.5

CEH over 56.5 rushing yards 

Kelce over 66.6 rec yards 

Edited December 16, 2021 by agarcia34

[SaveOurSonics]

13 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Dammit, I may need to pull the HOU ML bet now.  Was pretty clear the team had quit on Urban Meyer (and not blaming the team to be clear).  

Ya, not feeling great about it anymore. This is a classic scenario where the players rise to the occasion. James Robinson is probably a lock for 20+ touches as perhaps the focal point of Urban's schematic issues, and I don't think the Texans have the defense to stop that. 

Very unfortunate because my book doesn't let me buy out once a bet is placed.

[SaveOurSonics]

As a Seahawks fan, this might be a smash spot for the Rams this weekend in light of the news that Tyler Lockett is out with Covid. He has been essentially our only means of offense recently. DK isn't even practicing this week with foot and back ailments, and we have struggled in LA every year since they left St. Louis. 

I just locked in a Rams +1 / U52 teaser that I will be stunned if it doesn't hit. Might go back and hit Rams -5 while I'm at it. 

Edited December 16, 2021 by SaveOurSonics

[SaveOurSonics]

@Broncofan What're you expecting the impact of Rashawn Slater being out for tonight's game? Should we expect to see Cook / Parham kept inline more frequently? More quick passes (which could imply a heavy volume game from Keenan)? 

 

There is heavy steam on the Over right now (gone from 51.5 to 53.5) which I'm not sure makes sense to me. Ekeler limited. Slater out. Who knows what kinda shape Keenan is in. Over their last 6 non-Raiders games, the Chiefs average total per game is just above 31 total points. That span includes games against the Cowboys (28 points), Packers (20), Broncos (31), and Titans (30). The Chiefs defense has frankly been carrying this team (though I know CJones is out). 

 

Thoughts? 

[Broncofan]

16 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

@Broncofan What're you expecting the impact of Rashawn Slater being out for tonight's game? Should we expect to see Cook / Parham kept inline more frequently? More quick passes (which could imply a heavy volume game from Keenan)? 

 

There is heavy steam on the Over right now (gone from 51.5 to 53.5) which I'm not sure makes sense to me. Ekeler limited. Slater out. Who knows what kinda shape Keenan is in. Over their last 6 non-Raiders games, the Chiefs average total per game is just above 31 total points. That span includes games against the Cowboys (28 points), Packers (20), Broncos (31), and Titans (30). The Chiefs defense has frankly been carrying this team (though I know CJones is out). 

 

Thoughts? 

I don't understand the over steam, other than casuals LOVE to bet the over.  It's no fun betting on fewer points (I'm guilty of that, but I have complete insight lol).  

 Vegas makes a killing on the unders.  Thoughts on the game in another post.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Ya, not feeling great about it anymore. This is a classic scenario where the players rise to the occasion. James Robinson is probably a lock for 20+ touches as perhaps the focal point of Urban's schematic issues, and I don't think the Texans have the defense to stop that. 

Very unfortunate because my book doesn't let me buy out once a bet is placed.

I took a 15% loss and pulled it.

[MikeT14]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I don't understand the over steam, other than casuals LOVE to bet the over.  It's no fun betting on fewer points (I'm guilty of that, but I have complete insight lol).  

 Vegas makes a killing on the unders.  Thoughts on the game in another post.

It's funny, because I love to bet UNDERS, no idea why. ESPECIALLY in college basketball. I've had good luck with that. 

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

It's funny, because I love to bet UNDERS, no idea why. ESPECIALLY in college basketball. I've had good luck with that. 

You posting in this forum 365 days a year, well, it disqualifies you as a casual.   I mean that as a compliment, in case it's not clear. 

The fact you post here means you like $, too.  That also separates you from the casuals.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Broncofan

[MikeT14]

Just now, Broncofan said:

You posting in this forum 365 days a year, well, it disqualifies you as a casual.   I mean that as a compliment, in case it's not clear.

Haha fair point. I think my point is that I weirdly enjoy rooting for unders. Haven't found an explanation. 

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, MikeT14 said:

Haha fair point. I think my point is that I weirdly enjoy rooting for unders. Haven't found an explanation. 

Honestly, it's the smart way.  But to reinforce the point - ask most fans on the street what SB they remember the most that didn't involve their team - and they'll come up with NE coming back from 28-3, or the PHI-NE SB where Brady threw for 500+ yards, Philly special.    Casual fans LOVE to see offense.    And they still push the betting lines.   

I'm totally guilty of that myself.   I mean, I'll always love SB50, but I can see why no one likes that game.  DEN throttled Cam & co.   Just like SEA crushed Peyton & co. in SB48.    But the difference is I know my weakness, and I avoid most over's, and if I'm betting an under, I'm pretty sold.     It's also why you see me stick to ATS/ML & RACE.   Know thyself.

[LeotheLion]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

As a Seahawks fan, this might be a smash spot for the Rams this weekend in light of the news that Tyler Lockett is out with Covid. He has been essentially our only means of offense recently. DK isn't even practicing this week with foot and back ailments, and we have struggled in LA every year since they left St. Louis. 

I just locked in a Rams +1 / U52 teaser that I will be stunned if it doesn't hit. Might go back and hit Rams -5 while I'm at it. 

With the Rams COVID situation, it's a little dicey right now. We have no idea if the key guys that tested positive will be able to play and do not know who else may test positive. As it stands now, Havenstein, OBJ, Ramsey, Justin Hollins, Jordan Fuller, Hendo, Burgess, and Deayon are out. So it will be the same defense as last week minus 2 key secondary players and a rotational rusher. And Fuller would be a huge loss because he's the only deep safety that is at all reliable. Offensively Higbee is back and the only hit is OBJ which isn't great. 

Due to the timing of the positive cases, it does seem like a few of those guys may be back. But we also don't know since there is a huge spread if other key guys test positive. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

@Broncofan What're you expecting the impact of Rashawn Slater being out for tonight's game? Should we expect to see Cook / Parham kept inline more frequently? More quick passes (which could imply a heavy volume game from Keenan)? 

 

There is heavy steam on the Over right now (gone from 51.5 to 53.5) which I'm not sure makes sense to me. Ekeler limited. Slater out. Who knows what kinda shape Keenan is in. Over their last 6 non-Raiders games, the Chiefs average total per game is just above 31 total points. That span includes games against the Cowboys (28 points), Packers (20), Broncos (31), and Titans (30). The Chiefs defense has frankly been carrying this team (though I know CJones is out). 

 

Thoughts? 

OK props I like:
 

CEH O58.5 rush yards - this is still LAC's weakest area. 

Mahomes O16.5 rush yards - teams that cover well and rush the passer, Mahomes gets 20+.   

Herbert O16.5 rush yards - with bad T play, but no Chris Jones, runs up the middle / inside on scrambles are where we can see Herbert get his.  I see 20+ yards here as well.

Kelce O5.5 catches +120 - this one is iffy, but I suspect to contain Tyreek, the Chargers do allow Kelce to get his.   

Mike Williams O54.5 rec yards - Fenton's back, but I don't see him covering Williams every snap.  It only takes 1 chunk play to get here, and his history vs. KC is very good.   Worth the shot. 

I'm interested in Allen catch props (yes I'd take O7.5 at plus money), but they're not out yet awaiting to see if he's active or not (almost certainly is).

I think it's more likely this is a 31-21 game than a 35-28 type game - and I wouldn't touch the over.   Why do I say 31-21?  Because when either team gets up 2+ scores, the D gets that much better.    We haven't see KC fall behind, which is why we haven't seen the TO's - but that's the script where that happens.  To be fair, that's exactly the same risk if KC gets up 2+ scores, too.  

Edited December 16, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 12/14/2021 at 1:12 PM, Broncofan said:

Adding LV ML +180 4U LV +3 1H 2U & RACE to 20 / 25  / 30 (+250 / +500 / +750) right now.   Rumors of a massive COVID wave to be reported soon.  Worst case no story and I void.  

 

On 12/15/2021 at 12:20 PM, Broncofan said:

 

And today's news drops with Stefanski/Baker being added, and then CB Troy Hill S John Johnson, and DT Malik Mcdowell & LB Anthony Walker.   So EVERY unit is affected.   And again, with the OL/TE/WR & DL and now QB/CB/LB groups exposed, we could see more positives in the next 1-2 days.

It's now LV -1.5, and CLE is now +105 on the ML.   If you were fortunate enough to have bet LV ML, or LV +3 (post-news) or LV+4 before the lines were taken down - you now can ride it out for massive plus money with the favored team, or you can even hedge both ways (I'd personally wait as I think CLE ML is going to go up, might even be +150 to +180), and guarantee a W - or be REALLY greedy and try and middle the bet with a CLE +whatever it ends at, and stay with the LV ML bet.

With 12.4U worth of bets in with a max payout of 27.2U; I'm going to let the odds ride, I only see them going more in favor of LV for now.

 

23 hours ago, NYRaider said:

This is one I'd personally stay away from. The Raiders team is falling apart on and off the field. Plus the weather conditions are supposed to be terrible and we absolutely cannot run the ball at all.

 

23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

The ML is now already CLE +105.  Those were pre-COVID news odds I got so the value gain is already there.    I suspect it will increase even more.  
 

Probably looking to hedge in game or even middle it.  

 

[SaveOurSonics]

50 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

Haha fair point. I think my point is that I weirdly enjoy rooting for unders. Haven't found an explanation. 

I'm the same way, even with props. Lots of value in Unders, but they are definitely more stressful to track. An Under could theoretically be alive until the last play of the game, whereas an Over could realistically hit in the 1Q or 1H if you're on the right one (AJ Green on MNF for example).