Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

On 12/12/2021 at 8:05 PM, Broncofan said:

OMG had a great day, but before the tally comes through, a few SNF plays:

A-Rod O2.5 pass TD's +170 2U -   He's going to try and cement the "I own you" narrative on CHI.  At +170, just too much value to pass up.

AJ Dillon O55.5 rush yards - I know Aaron Jones is back, but I think he gets a healthy dose. 

Darnell Mooney O3.5 catches - top target, I'll take this every day.

Allen Robinson O3.5 catches +120 1.5U - he's back, I think they'll feed him for 6-7 targets minimum

Mooney TD +350 / +3000 2+ (0.7U / 0.3U) - such good odds for their top target deep, and still gets looks.

Cole Kmet TD +650 / +9000 2+ (0.6U / 0.3U) - gotta take 1 prime time TE prop.

Amari Rodgers +1200 TD / +125000 2+ (0.4/0.2U) - with Randall Cobb out, a few more snaps for the 2nd A-Rod.  Love the A-Rod to A-Rod narrative lol.

 

This puts 8U at play, hoping to cap off an amazing Sunday....BOL!

I also put a live GB -110 ML bet (and given I post everything as it happens time-stamped, I figure ppl trust me here lol) when they went down 24-14 after the PRTD, which combined with A-Rod's O2.5 pass TD prop, and AJ Dillon's O55.5 rush yards, gave me a +0.6U profit, since I lost with Mooney/A-Rob catch props, and no TD props (Kmet losing a TD to Fields' bad placement in 1Q really stung).   Still, it caps off an amazing Sunday, so I'll take it....

2021 - WEEK 1 - WEEK 14:

ATS 41-41; 9-16 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +21.4U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS). 

Player props - 142-131, +41.4U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-58, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +50.9U profit so far 

Net balance:  +113.7U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U )

Edited December 14, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Little weekend trip to San Diego with a buddy of mine was profitable. Ended up being a really good day for me, but I got incredibly cocky going into SNF and wasted a good chunk of profit. Hit a Packers -4 / U50 teaser that never stood a chance. AJ Dillon O13.5 receiving. MVS O43 receiving. Also ended up live betting Bears +3.5 when they were up 7 in the 3Q for reasons I don't actually know. I actually went on to live bet the Pack but I convinced myself +3.5 up 7 was really good value. 

Rest of my card....

AKamara O69 rushing 1.5U - Can't believe I didn't hit this one harder. Had supreme confidence in it but after a 3U Kelce bet, I tried to stay conservatie elsewhere.

TayHill O52 rushing 1U - Fairly lucky this hit with Hill's long TD run late in the 4Q. Wanted it as insurance on the Kamara bet and got best case scenario. 

THiggins O68.5 receiving 1.5U 

TKelce O5.5 receptions 3U - Brutal L. I leaned hard on N4L's tweet last week and it paid off. Not this time. The game script just totally got away here and Kelce was hardly looked at. Still weird that he's seeing as few looks as he did while guys like Hardman, Williams, and 

DSingletary U30 rushing 1U - If you would've told me Singletary had 0 carries at halftime of a 24-3 deficit, I would've hammered this all day and night. Next thing I know, Singletary has 1 carry for 29 yards lol. Obviously that's the reality of betting the Under on such a low prop, but boy the process still feels good. 

Saints -4.5 2U - Just never understood the logic in this line continuously moving toward the Jets. The Saints are capable of shutting down the run and Zach Wilson has yet to prove he can carry the offense in any capacity. Meanwhile, it's the 32nd ranked run defense in the league against Kamara and Taysom Hill. 

Seahawks -8 1U

Saints +2 / Ravens +10 / Seahawks -0.5 Teaser 2U

Titans -2.5 / Seahawks -1.5 / Broncos -2.5 Teaser 2U

Chargers -2.5 / SF CIN O43 / DEN DET U48.5 Teaser 2U

ATL CAR U49 / SF CIN O43 2U

 

 

Not sure if I'll play anything tonight. As of right now I like the Cardinals at -2.5. I don't think the Rams have what it takes defensively to slow this offense down, meanwhile the Cardinals defense is legit. Not official yet but likely will be. 

[SaveOurSonics]

With word that Donte Deayon is out for tonight's game, I'm really eyeing AJ Green props tonight. He absolutely bullied David Long in their last matchup and both his catches (3.5) and yards (38.5) totals seem crazy low due to recent circumstance. 

Here are Green's numbers over the last X games when Kyler attempts Over 20 passes (a very low number): 

5 for 50 

3 for 66 (blowout win) 

5 for 79 (blowout win) 

1 for 13

5 for 67

 

 

UPDATE: I definitely like this less now with the Jalen Ramsey update (Nuk should see more work now) but I'm still going to take both the catches and yards. Lock it in. Also locked in a Cardinals +4 / O44 teaser as soon as the Ramsey update came out. I am afraid that the Cardinals D sells out to stop Kupp with Higbee out and the Rams offense gets stuck in the mud, but I'd rather not take the under in a primetime divisional showdown like this. Pressure is on McVay. 

[SaveOurSonics]

7 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Also locked in a Cardinals +4 / O44 teaser as soon as the Ramsey update came out. I am afraid that the Cardinals D sells out to stop Kupp with Higbee out and the Rams offense gets stuck in the mud, but I'd rather not take the under in a primetime divisional showdown like this.

I actually think the Higbee update is low key bigger than the Ramsey update. I had this pegged as a high scoring game regardless of Ramsey's involvement, but Higbee being out means the Rams are down their top THREE TEs + best run blocking OL in Havenstein + Henderson for more of a home run threat. There is serious risk of the Rams sputtering enough on offense for O44 to miss. That said, even with -120 juice, I decided to hit Cardinals -2.5. I'm gonna cut myself off there. Here's my card for the night. 

Cardinals -2.5 (-120) 2U

Cardinals +4 / O44 Teaser (-115) 2U

Cardinals TT O26.5 + JConner TD Parlay (+120) 1U 

AJ Green O3.5 catches (+110) 1U 

AJ Green O38.5 receiving yards (-114) 2U

[SaveOurSonics]

I keep thinking about the loss of Higbee and I can't help but sprinkle a little bit of action on the Rams (everything I have so far is pro-Cardinals). 

Stafford has attempted just north of 41 passes per game over the Rams last 4 contests. Every time I think McVay will come out and establish the run, he continues to dial up pass plays regardless of circumstance (38 attempts in a 30-point win vJAX last week) which makes this volume relatively game script-proof.. I would expect the Cardinals to throw serious defensive attention at Kupp tonight, so I'm riding with both OBJ O46.5 receiving yards (-110, 1U) and Van Jefferson O53.5 receiving yards (-110, 1U). I feel great about at least 1 of these hitting with good odds for both. I'll either take the wash or the profit the way I see it. 

[agarcia34]

Hate how much I love there Rams +3 tonight 

[bigbadbuff]

44 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

Hate how much I love there Rams +3 tonight 

I’m the exact opposite. So you’re probably right

[N4L]

I took the live over 49 after the rams went three and out because the pace of the game had been so fast.

I did a teaser with the rams +10 and another with +9 with other games later in the week (KC, DAL, SF)

Looking to add to the second half over depending on what it is

Edited December 14, 2021 by N4L

[N4L]

7 minutes ago, N4L said:

Looking to add to the second half over depending on what it is

25 is the line for the second half over.

First half had four FGs and was 26, even after a RZ INT. 

25 feels good to me, doing it for 50% of my over 49 risk.  

[Broncofan]

OK 4 Week 15 plays I've already committed to, 2 straight dog bets and 2 faves I'm putting in for now, and 2 more I'm leaning but waiting given more news, or the hope the line moves in my favor:

 

ALREADY TOOK

HOU +140 ML, RACE to 20/25 (+200/+350) @ JAX - yes, I'm taking Davis Mills over Trevor Lawrence.   Ask me this before the reg. season starts, and I'd say the 4 Horsemen were riding before I'd see this.  Well, the 7th seal might be breaking here.    This isn't a reflection on Lawrence - but how inept the JAX coaching staff is in game planning, deploying personnel, and managing the game.   And that's saying a LOT when I'm comparing them to the Texans.   

CIN +110 ML, RACE to 20/25/30 (+150/+250/+400) @ DEN - CIN opened up at -1.5, and then public money went hard on Denver.   In a TO-neutral game, Burrow's ability to throw vs. pressure, the weapons he has, and I'm presuming Joe Mixon is healthy again, this is a problem.    On the flip side, CIN's run D is decent, which spells trouble for DEN's O - if we're up 2+ scores, we can lean on the run game, and TeddyB's shortcomings as a QB are limited.   Get behind, and we're dead in the water.    Fangio is 1-22 when trailing at halftime.   This is a game where if you take CIN, you take the RACE's, since there's even more implied value.  

PHI -5 vs. WFT - with PHI getting healthier & rested off a bye, and WFT losing key players in Logan Thomas, and a very iffy Terry Mclaurin and JD McKissic, this really is a line I think will only increase as time goes by, so I'm willing take this favorite now.

MIA -8.5 vs. NYJ - I know, I know, it's 8.5 pts in an intradivisional game.  The thing is, the Jets are absolutely dead in the water on O now with Michael Carter & Elijah Moore & Corey Davis on IR.  Those are literally the 3 matchup problems MIA had to worry about....now, it's a motley crew.   And Tua has Waddle/Parker & Gesicki, and likely Myles Gaskin, as his 4 main weapons.   This IMO will be a 27-10 type game, I'm happy to take this before the line increases more. 

 

WAITING/LEANING

I was thinking hard on LAC ML / RACE to 20/25/30 vs. KC, but Slater's injury and the status on Ekeler/Allen/Derwin James are major game influencers, so holding off for now.   I'm also very much on the IND -2 line vs. NE, with a bye week, and how IND matches up (their run game to minimize TO's / sacks vs. NE's D, and their run D forcing the game more into Mac Jones' hands - the only neutralizers are TO potential with Wentz and the massive coaching advantage - Reich still sucks).   I'm hoping the line moves more to NE as time goes by TBH, why I'm willing to wait for now.

Edited December 14, 2021 by Broncofan

[MWil23]

@Broncofan what's the O/U on the Cleveland and Vegas game? I have no idea what it is, but based upon the Browns offensive struggles coupled with the weather report/forecast (43 degrees, rain, windy), I'd be tempted to take the UNDER here.

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

@Broncofan what's the O/U on the Cleveland and Vegas game? I have no idea what it is, but based upon the Browns offensive struggles coupled with the weather report/forecast (43 degrees, rain, windy), I'd be tempted to take the UNDER here.

Vegas is sadly well aware - 42.  Hate that range 

[MWil23]

7 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Vegas is sadly well aware - 42.  Hate that range 

Did they even take away that extra 1/2 point? I looked it up just now and I saw 42.5.

That's a brutal number...who couldn't see a 20-20 type game with a game winning field goal? Ugh...

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Did they even take away that extra 1/2 point? I looked it up just now and I saw 42.5.

That's a brutal number...who couldn't see a 20-20 type game with a game winning field goal? Ugh...

It’s tied for lowest total with HOU-JAX TEN-PIT and NYJ-MIA.   That’s pretty special company lol. 

[MWil23]

27 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

It’s tied for lowest total with HOU-JAX TEN-PIT and NYJ-MIA.   That’s pretty special company lol. 

It's such a perfect storm.

The Raiders are middle of the NFL in rush defense.

The Browns have scored 7 4th Quarter points in the last 8 games (you read that correctly).

The Browns are mediocre in about every offensive metric after rushing yards/TDs.

The Browns defense has performed exceptionally well or given up a 40+ burger.

...freaking Vegas man.