Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

Re: LAR-BAL, I'd just take LAR-3.5 and be done with it.  Or better yet, take the LAR team total over, but if weather is an issue, take LAR -3.5 now.   With LAR & BAL both having had Covid waves, I don't expect the line to move 1 way or the other for that reason.

Edited December 29, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Just browsing through some futures on my lunch break. One kinda jumped out...

 

Cooper Kupp to break the receptions record (+150). He would need 18 over the next 2 games, which is completely doable (he's averaged just under 10/game over the last 7 games without Woods). My only legitimate concern is the Rams have nothing to play for next week and rest him. Beyond that, he faces two pretty poor secondaries that he should be able to feast on and you have to believe they're motivated to get him there. 

Edited December 29, 2021 by SaveOurSonics

[SaveOurSonics]

Am I the only one who loves IND/LV U45 this week? Strongly considering a 2U straight up play here. I doubt Reich will open up the offense too much for Ehlinger and the Raiders have shown the last 2 weeks that they can stuff the run if that's their sole focus as a defense. 

Here are total points from every Raiders games this season when facing what I will call "bottom half of the league QBs": 

30 (Drew Lock) 
30 (Nick Mullens) 
32 (Taylor Heinicke) 
39 (Daniel Jones) 
58 (Teddy Bridgewater) 
29 (Justin Fields) 
43 (Ben Roethlisberger) 

That's a hit rate of ~86% on the U45. The Raiders offense also hasn't exceeded 17 points in their last 4 games, and I don't suspect them righting that against a strong Colts defense. 

Similarly, here are the total points from the most recent games where a backup had to come in due to Covid: 

23 (Ian Book) 
36 (Tim Boyle) 
44 (Garrett Gilbert) 
30 (Nick Mullens) 
 

That's a hit rate of 100% on the U45. I realize none of these offenses have a Jonathan Taylor to help mitigate the loss of their QB, but I think I'll bet against that being the difference here to reach 46+. 

 

[SmittyBacall]

39 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Just browsing through some futures on my lunch break. One kinda jumped out...

 

Cooper Kupp to break the receptions record (+150). He would need 18 over the next 2 games, which is completely doable (he's averaged just under 10/game over the last 7 games without Woods). My only legitimate concern is the Rams have nothing to play for next week and rest him. Beyond that, he faces two pretty poor secondaries that he should be able to feast on and you have to believe they're motivated to get him there. 

Speaking of futures, why is Mac Jones considered such a lock at -350 to win ROY over Ja’Marr Chase (+300)?

Is it just me, or is Chase’s stat line and impact not more impressive then Mac Jones’? 

[Broncofan]

14 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Am I the only one who loves IND/LV U45 this week? Strongly considering a 2U straight up play here. I doubt Reich will open up the offense too much for Ehlinger and the Raiders have shown the last 2 weeks that they can stuff the run if that's their sole focus as a defense. 

Here are total points from every Raiders games this season when facing what I will call "bottom half of the league QBs": 

30 (Drew Lock) 
30 (Nick Mullens) 
32 (Taylor Heinicke) 
39 (Daniel Jones) 
58 (Teddy Bridgewater) 
29 (Justin Fields) 
43 (Ben Roethlisberger) 

That's a hit rate of ~86% on the U45. The Raiders offense also hasn't exceeded 17 points in their last 4 games, and I don't suspect them righting that against a strong Colts defense. 

Similarly, here are the total points from the most recent games where a backup had to come in due to Covid: 

23 (Ian Book) 
36 (Tim Boyle) 
44 (Garrett Gilbert) 
30 (Nick Mullens) 
 

That's a hit rate of 100% on the U45. I realize none of these offenses have a Jonathan Taylor to help mitigate the loss of their QB, but I think I'll bet against that being the difference here to reach 46+. 

 

Wentz is almost certainly going to get cleared with the new COVID protocol.    With J-Taylor that’s a problem.  And why I loved IND -2 when it was up before the COVID rules changed. 

Edited December 29, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Just now, SmittyBacall said:

Speaking of futures, why is Mac Jones considered such a lock at -350 to win ROY over Ja’Marr Chase (+300)?

Is it just me, or is Chase’s stat line and impact not more impressive then Mac Jones’? 

It’s worth a play, but likely it’s the halo effect from NE’s success and the WB role attribution.    If NE loses to MIA and Chase balls out the last 2 games it’s certainly going to narrow.  

[LeotheLion]

6 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Speaking of futures, why is Mac Jones considered such a lock at -350 to win ROY over Ja’Marr Chase (+300)?

Is it just me, or is Chase’s stat line and impact not more impressive then Mac Jones’? 

It's really silly that QBs are usually locks for the award. Chase would have my vote and it wouldn't be particularly close.

[SaveOurSonics]

19 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Wentz is almost certainly going to get cleared with the new COVID protocol.    With J-Taylor that’s a problem.  And why I loved IND -2 when it was up before the COVID rules changed. 

Ya I'm tabling this until Sunday so we can see whether Wentz is cleared, but if he's not I'll be smashing U45. 

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Wentz is almost certainly going to get cleared with the new COVID protocol.    With J-Taylor that’s a problem.  And why I loved IND -2 when it was up before the COVID rules changed. 

He can be cleared within 5 days despite not being vaccinated? 

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

He can be cleared within 5 days despite not being vaccinated? 

Vaxxed and unvaxxed  - 5 days.   I covered it in the COVID news thread.   Fwiw I expect next season vaxxed will be even shorter.   But go read it there if you want to get the full breakdown.  For obv reasons this isn’t the place. 

Edited December 29, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

37 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

He can be cleared within 5 days despite not being vaccinated? 

Just has to be symptomless. 

[aussie_eagle]

4 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Just has to be symptomless. 

What's stopping a player or team lying about symptoms?

[Broncofan]

20 minutes ago, aussie_eagle said:

What's stopping a player or team lying about symptoms?

Fever is hard to suppress (not impossible but difficult).  Symptoms are always going to be an issue.  
 

Keep in mind we’re straying a bit into dangerous waters here - gotta stick to the football implications, and in this case…betting.   
 

 

[SaveOurSonics]

13 hours ago, aussie_eagle said:

What's stopping a player or team lying about symptoms?

😉

Anyways, the line has already moved a full point toward the Under (O/U 44 now). I have to assume this is because the general public thinks Wentz is for sure out? 

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

😉

Anyways, the line has already moved a full point toward the Under (O/U 44 now). I have to assume this is because the general public thinks Wentz is for sure out? 

I saw a random Colts account tweet that he's doing well and likely going to play.