NYRaider Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Tempted to take a 4 game parlay: Raiders (+240) at Colts Steelers (+160) vs Browns Bengals (+180) vs Chiefs Eagles (-170) at WFT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 (edited) 42 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Tempted to take a 4 game parlay: Raiders (+240) at Colts Steelers (+160) vs Browns Bengals (+180) vs Chiefs Eagles (-170) at WFT IMO, if you're confident enough to submit that as a parlay, I'd only go about 0.25U on it considering it's about a 40x return. I'd then go anywhere from 0.5U-1U on each of those straight up (again, if you feel good about them) because it would really suck to nail Raiders/Steelers/Bengals and lose the parlay over the Eagles, for example. Fwiw, I would not recommend betting on the Raiders or Steelers, but you do you. I'm expecting a massive chip on Cleveland's shoulder this week and Pittsburgh looks like a team ready for the offseason. Edited December 30, 2021 by SaveOurSonics 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, SaveOurSonics said: IMO, if you're confident enough to submit that as a parlay, I'd only go about 0.25U on it considering it's about a 40x return. I'd then go anywhere from 0.5U-1U on each of those straight up (again, if you feel good about them) because it would really suck to nail Raiders/Steelers/Bengals and lose the parlay over the Eagles, for example. Fwiw, I would not recommend betting on the Raiders or Steelers, but you do you. I'm expecting a massive chip on Cleveland's shoulder this week and Pittsburgh looks like a team ready for the offseason. I surprisingly have some confidence in the Raiders this week. Our run defense has surprisingly started to pick it up in a major way limiting Nick Chubb and then completely shutting down Melvin Gordon/Javonte Williams. I know Taylor is a different beast but if we can slow him down I think we can win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, NYRaider said: I surprisingly have some confidence in the Raiders this week. Our run defense has surprisingly started to pick it up in a major way limiting Nick Chubb and then completely shutting down Melvin Gordon/Javonte Williams. I know Taylor is a different beast but if we can slow him down I think we can win. I still think it's a tall task with Darius Leonard coming back and the Raiders offense putting up no more than 17 points the last 4 weeks against worse defenses. Though I will say, the Raiders run defense has stepped it up in a major way recently (wasn't expecting that after Abram went down) and a braver man than me might make some money on the Jonathan Taylor Under this week 👀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, SaveOurSonics said: I still think it's a tall task with Darius Leonard coming back and the Raiders offense putting up no more than 17 points the last 4 weeks against worse defenses. Though I will say, the Raiders run defense has stepped it up in a major way recently (wasn't expecting that after Abram went down) and a braver man than me might make some money on the Jonathan Taylor Under this week 👀 Yeah our offense has been struggling but I think we may unleash Tyron Johnson this week and look to take some deep shots early and often. We finally got our running game going too. For the Steelers game, I expect that they'll come ready to play in Big Ben's final home game on MNF against a division rival. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Denver about to lose more guys. Including both RT’s (Anderson yesterday Massie today). Last chance to get LAC -6.5 before a line move is coming if you like them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 (edited) On 12/28/2021 at 4:15 PM, Broncofan said: FWIW I see 4 dogs with a legit chance at winning barring COVID issues - CIN, CLE, DET & I guess NYG (but not touching that game). DEN in theory but on principle alone I can’t back. But those all make excellent ATS picks too. More on the matchups later. Obv I’m off DEN and won’t back NYG. Waiting on injury reports but still lean to the 3 dogs above (Goff makes a huge diff with DET / more than he’s not Tim Boyle). 1 favorite and 3 TD props I’m taking now: PHI -3 @ WFT - don’t want the line to move past 3. Mismatches with all the WFT injuries. Rashad Higgins +600 TD / +8000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - got 2 RZ targets last week and is a guy they look to in RZ as much or more than DPJ/ Landry. Ihmir Smith - Marsette / Dede Westbrook TD +1000 / +12500 2+ (0.6U / 0.1U) - one of the 2 moves up to WR3 with Thielen on IR. If Smith - Marsette inactive easy to go with Dede. Only a few props are out but those stood out. More to come this weekend. Edited December 31, 2021 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 49 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Obv I’m off DEN and won’t back NYG. Waiting on injury reports but still lean to the 3 dogs above (Goff makes a huge diff with DET / more than he’s not Tim Boyle). 1 favorite and 3 TD props I’m taking now: PHI -3 @ WFT - don’t want the line to move past 3. Mismatches with all the WFT injuries. Rashad Higgins +600 TD / +8000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - got 2 RZ targets last week and is a guy they look to in RZ as much or more than DPJ/ Landry. Ihmir Smith - Marsette / Dede Westbrook TD +1000 / +12500 2+ (0.6U / 0.1U) - one of the 2 moves up to WR3 with Thielen on IR. If Smith - Marsette inactive easy to go with Dede. Only a few props are out but those stood out. More to come this weekend. Scratch the MIN plays with Cousins out. Sigh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 DEN - LAC line about to go past the 7 pt mark. If you like LAC this is the last chance to get them before line moves. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 No Reiff for the remainder of the year. Downgrade to run game and pass pro. Prince has been okay in his absence so far. Pass pro is what worries me most Sunday. Chris Jones can feast on our interior. If they can get pressure with 4 it will be a long day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Someone convince me TJ Watt isn’t great value for DPOY at +200. His per-game rate is historically elite and he still gets 2 big inter-division matchups (one on primetime) to boost the resume. He’s already 2.5 sacks ahead of anyone in contention (you can’t even wager on Robert Quinn) and also leads pass rushers in PDs, FFs, and FRs. I ultimately think Parsons (+250) and Diggs (+400) will take votes away from one another. Donald (+800) doesn’t have the sack numbers this year to repeat. IMO, the only real threat is Myles Garrett (+900) who of course will be going head to head with Watt on MNF this week and is only 2.5 sacks behind him. Garrett also has the only defensive TD among the group. If the Browns can beat both the Steelers and Bengals (bad OLs btw) behind a strong defensive performance, Garrett could very well steal this. As I type this, I think I’ll be putting 1U on Watt and 0.5U on Garrett unless one of you talks me out of it lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 23 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: Someone convince me TJ Watt isn’t great value for DPOY at +200. His per-game rate is historically elite and he still gets 2 big inter-division matchups (one on primetime) to boost the resume. He’s already 2.5 sacks ahead of anyone in contention (you can’t even wager on Robert Quinn) and also leads pass rushers in PDs, FFs, and FRs. I ultimately think Parsons (+250) and Diggs (+400) will take votes away from one another. Donald (+800) doesn’t have the sack numbers this year to repeat. IMO, the only real threat is Myles Garrett (+900) who of course will be going head to head with Watt on MNF this week and is only 2.5 sacks behind him. Garrett also has the only defensive TD among the group. If the Browns can beat both the Steelers and Bengals (bad OLs btw) behind a strong defensive performance, Garrett could very well steal this. As I type this, I think I’ll be putting 1U on Watt and 0.5U on Garrett unless one of you talks me out of it lol. The fact that the Steelers defense has looked horrendous in the games he’s missed is going to bolster his case with voters IMO The only way i see Garrett taking it from Watt is if the Browns end up making the playoffs If they both miss I think Watt gets it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 28 minutes ago, Ray Reed said: The fact that the Steelers defense has looked horrendous in the games he’s missed is going to bolster his case with voters IMO The only way i see Garrett taking it from Watt is if the Browns end up making the playoffs If they both miss I think Watt gets it That’s pretty much exactly how I see it shaking out. If the Browns sneak into the playoffs and Myles gets around 18 sacks I think it’s his to lose, which is great value at +900 relative to the other options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/29/2021 at 10:38 AM, SmittyBacall said: Germaine Pratt, while not moving the needle in coverage, is out Sunday. If this isn’t a position group for Andy Reid to target, I don’t know what is. I would imagine we see Vonn Bell fill a lot of those LB snaps, and see a lot of Kelce, which just isn’t going to work. Bet365 opened their Kelce line at o68.5. I will happily lay 4 units at that number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: Bet365 opened their Kelce line at o68.5. I will happily lay 4 units at that number. Only thing holding me back from a bigger U play is the fact that Kelce is coming back from Covid and we've seen how detrimental that can be on a player's performance in their first game back (look no further than Tyreek Hill last week). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.