Broncofan Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) 30 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: I'm wondering whether or not to attack the white catch props when they come out. With Tampas oline woes you'd think they'd wanna dump the ball out quick. The problem is Fournette's back. So good luck trying to figure out what the timeshare is going to be like. Fournette may not have as much juice as White, but remember Bowles & Leftwich have already said they'd go with the hot hand. So who knows how that translates. One painful lesson I keep having to re-learn - don't make assumptions about roles coming off injury. I did it when Njoku got hurt with Harrison Bryant on prime time (and then on Njoku's 1st game back - a big reason why I stayed away from Watson's first game back). It's literally a coin-flip knowledge-wise who's getting more work tonight. Which is fine, but then the odds better support better than coin flip odds - and that's the problem, they don't. It's also why TD props work, especially with +300 or longer odds - over the long run, the payout exceeds the probability = profit (I'm literally running at 20 percent, but with so many hitting at +600 or better, and a couple 2-TD winners, mega-profit). For example, take the Callaway +1000 play. Maybe I'm wrong, and Trautman gets all the RZ Juwan looks & patterns. But even if I'm "only" right 1/4 of the time, at +1000, I'm 2.5x the implied probability. It's also why the alt lines are profitable, hitting at .500 rates is getting +++ value given the +200 or better odds on each alt line I often pick out. But back to Fournette/White - unless you have inside info which gives you a 60+ percent certainty, you're betting at worse than coin flip odds with only coin-flip pre-existing knowledge. It sucks if you would have guessed right, but I'd rather find out more info, and then adjust next week if there's value. Edited December 5, 2022 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) Been making a killing this year on live td bets. Last night I hit Gallup +380 and Pierce at +800, lost on Ferguson +2200.. Listening to the broadcast can help, the coaches sometimes tip their hands in terms of strategy or specific players that will be targeted. Or it's about knowing the teams you are watching and their tendencies. For example, Rodgers wanted Cobb early and tried forcing a couple bad decisions to him. That one missed, but I figured Tyreek would score in the 2nd half ybe way Gipson was playing and leaped at +400 Edit- Just read broncofans above post and it goes well this this, actually. I always go for value with these live bets and mostly look for teams playing from behind Edited December 5, 2022 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) 22 hours ago, Broncofan said: For MNF I have 5 plays: ATS / ML NO +3.5 or NO +160 - I’m taking both. Just a case of bad matchups and TAm OL being decimated hurting TB12 again. Don’t trust the race enough as we may not see teams get past 20 pts. PLAYER PROPS Chris Olave o59.5 Rec yds 2U - I won’t lie if Jameis was starting I’d go with the 3.5U play. But I just can’t trust Dalton enough to do anything but the main prop at 2U. Chris Godwin o67.5 Rec yds - Same issue of trust except it’s the OL. TD PROPS Marquez Callaway +1000 / +10000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) DK - with Juwan Johnson out I think we’ll see more Callaway in the RZ as a target not necessarily more Trautman (he blocks a lot) Cade Otton +700 FD - Brate is back but Otton gets his share of RZ snaps and TB12 still looks his way. That’s it for now. BOL! WIth news that Shaheed is Q with a back issue, and 3 TAM DB's are doubtful, 1 revision & 1 longshot TD addition: -Taking the Chris Olave 80+ rec yd +200 & 100+ rec yd 0.5U on FD alt lines with the Bucs secondary still in trouble. ESP with Vea & Hicks back for TAM's DL, has to be more of a pass O. Please don't get concussed, and please, if Dalton's ineffective - get Jameis in there. -Given Juwan Johnson is out, the other big body to look for - Kevin White at +2100 0.5U FD. Edited December 6, 2022 by Broncofan WHITE voided 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, Broncofan said: -Given Juwan Johnson is out, the other big body to look for - Kevin White at +2100 0.5U FD. +17500 for 2+ TDs on Pointsbet. I put 2 US dollars on it. 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) 23 minutes ago, adamq said: +17500 for 2+ TDs on Pointsbet. I put 2 US dollars on it. 🤣 So much for that. Voided lol. Edited December 5, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Got offered a free SPG for 0.2U, so I took Olave props and Kirk Merritt +2300 TD (PS callup) for +4500 lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Olave/Godwin to combine for 150+ yds, +220 live Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Rasheed Shaheed is on fire tonight. Live betting the TD at +650. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadbuff Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Brutal Olave drop for the over bet. Goose egg going into half. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, bigbadbuff said: Brutal Olave drop for the over bet. Goose egg going into half. First drop of the year. Lmao 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 (edited) .2 on Krull at +4700 because why not. He had been out there a couple times in jumbo running routes. nothing else feels great right now to me, Ingram +1500 b/c hes outsnapping Kamara but still I'll pass. Will be watching Godwin's line as it gets closer to the 4th q though. Edit- this guy is a good follow if you care about live snap counts Edited December 6, 2022 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadbuff Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Please God give me the Godwin garbage time td Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 That Olave was the smoothest over ever he really is a special player. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Should have known we couldn't have 2 straight high scoring primetime games 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 15 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: That Olave was the smoothest over ever he really is a special player. And just imagine the numbers he'd be putting up with Winston.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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