Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

1 minute ago, adamq said:

And just imagine the numbers he'd be putting up with Winston..

we would of hit the alternate props tbh

[bigbadbuff]

39 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

Please God give me the Godwin garbage time td

I had the TD parlay of Godwin and Hill anytime TD scorers…+1300

 

i want to puke 

[thebestever6]

I can't believe The Saints blew that game I was counting that money lol. And holy shhh White finished with 6 catches. 

[Broncofan]

23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

For MNF I have 5 plays:  

ATS / ML

NO +3.5 or NO +160 - I’m taking both.   Just a case of bad matchups and TAm OL being decimated hurting TB12 again.  Don’t trust the race enough as we may not see teams get past 20 pts.      

 

PLAYER PROPS

Chris Olave o59.5 Rec yds 2U / 80+ rec yds +200 / 100+ rec yds 0.5U - I won’t lie if Jameis was starting I’d go with the 3.5U play.   But I just can’t trust Dalton enough to do anything but the main prop at 2U.  
 

Chris Godwin o67.5 Rec yds - Same issue of trust except it’s the OL.   

 

TD PROPS

Marquez Callaway +1000 / +10000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) DK  - with Juwan Johnson out I think we’ll see more Callaway in the RZ as a target not necessarily more Trautman (he blocks a lot)   

Cade Otton +700 FD  - Brate is back but Otton gets his share of RZ snaps and TB12 still looks his way.      

 

That’s it for now.  BOL!

Well, on the one hand - I feel absolutely violated that NO ML didn't cash - a 2.6U swing.    And yeah, if Olave doesn't drop those 2 balls (one was contested) in the 1H, we're at 100+ yards easy.   And Godwin was sooooo close at the end.    We were literally 2-3 plays that were there to have swept the ATS & prop board.

Still, I was absolutely convinced we were headed for another goose egg night on props & TD's, then Olave's main prop hit, and more importantly - Cade Otton hits, so that's a +5.5U profit night.     Just could have been THAT great.    Still, after the disasters of the last week's SNF/MNF and TNF this week - I will absolutely take it.   I can't even be mad that I lost the alt lines on Olave - he had the 100+ prop if he doesn't drop a ball - but I do have to remember to downgrade NO's output because of the HORRIBLE coaching Dennis Allen provides.   Live and learn.

With the 4 TD props whiffing (Granson was THAT close last night), it makes for +3.5U SNF/MNF, which TBH was a strong result especially after the SNF/MNF Week 12 disasters and the Week 13 TNF carnage as well.    On to Week 14!

ATS - 1-0 ATS, 0-1 ML (OMG); even

PLAYER PROPS - 1-1; -0.5U (sooo close to alt lines and Godwin going over...sigh)

TD props - 1-1;+6U (thank you Cade Otton).

 

WEEK 13 FINAL

ATS/ ML & RACE

30-24-2 ATS, 10-15 ML/RACE, BALANCE +3.0U. (+1.4U Week 13 FINAL 3-2 ATS, 1-1 ML). 

PLAYER PROPS

91-92,  BALANCE  +43.2U (+0.7U WEEK 13 FINAL <-7U on TNF, +7.7U Sun/Mon> - Now 49-44 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones )

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

22-72, BALANCE +114.6U  (+7.5U Week 13 FINAL - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700)
 

TOTAL:  +160.8U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week - +9.6U (-7.5U TNF, +13.6U Sunday day slate & +3.5U SNF/MNF <WHEW>).

Edited December 6, 2022 by Broncofan

[LeotheLion]

9 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I can't believe The Saints blew that game I was counting that money lol. And holy shhh White finished with 6 catches. 

Saints ML is probably my worst loss of the year. The amount of things that had to go wrong in the last 5 minutes to get there is remarkable. 

[Broncofan]

Just now, LeotheLion said:

Saints ML is probably my worst loss of the year. The amount of things that had to go wrong in the last 5 minutes to get there is remarkable. 

What's brutal is that Allen hamstrung the O the first 3Q by calling run plays with the gadget formation on 2nd and long (the one time they threw the ball off that - 23+ yards to Olave, go figure) - and then in the last 2 drives, when all you need to do is run the ball - they decide to pass, and WITHOUT Olave & Shaheed on the field for at least 1-2 plays too.    OMG.  

So they limited the O's ability to max out points (and Olave yards)...and then minimize their ability to run out the clock.  UNFREAKING believable. 

[adamq]

2 hours ago, adamq said:

Olave/Godwin to combine for 150+ yds, +220 live

22 yards short, should have hit easily.

 

1 hour ago, adamq said:

.2 on Krull at +4700 because why not. He had been out there a couple times in jumbo running routes.

nothing else feels great right now to me, Ingram +1500 b/c hes outsnapping Kamara but still I'll pass. Will be watching Godwin's line as it gets closer to the 4th q though.

Good thing I never pulled the trigger on Godwin, thought about it at +600. Would have been heated at that holding call.

[Broncofan]

24 minutes ago, bigbadbuff said:

I had the TD parlay of Godwin and Hill anytime TD scorers…+1300

 

i want to puke 

Man, that sucks so hard.    Not just the holding call, but on the out pattern, Godwin just had to keep his balance, and it's a walk-in.   Then that gives 6-7 more secs for NO to get 1 more garbage time play, and maybe Olave props....man, what might have been.

[Broncofan]

I will bet pretty much any play where I see value....but man, the TNF card is really rough.   Not much meat on the bone so far.    I legitimately think my eyes started to bleed as I opened the TNF card on FD.

Edited December 6, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

46 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I will bet pretty much any play where I see value....but man, the TNF card is really rough.   Not much meat on the bone so far.    I legitimately think my eyes are starting to bleed as I opened the TNF card on FD.

I was thinking the same thing before I even saw the things. Only thing sticking out in my mind is Higbee .

[thebestever6]

Yeah Higbee at 34.5 yards sticks out to me. Raiders are bad against the Te and he is the rams best weapon  

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Yeah Higbee at 34.5 yards sticks out to me. Raiders are bad against the Te and he is the rams best weapon  

Be careful - the reason why Higbee's production has fallen off a cliff - he's not running routes any more:

 

Honestly, that's a massive flag.  I won't lie, it's making me wonder about taking a shot on Brycen Hopkins TD props - because it's already +1200, and IMO it likely goes up to +1700+ range.     

[thebestever6]

Josh Jacobs receiving yards number 20.5. He's had 20 or more yards in 7 out of 13 games. 

[LeotheLion]

For Rams plays, the only thing I feel okay about would be overs on Kyren yards. Whoever is QB for Rams, the priority is going to be running. Cam got a lot of work last Sunday. On a short week and back to back turf games (Rams pay a ton of attention to this in regards to soft tissue injuries and w/ Akers achilles) I think Kyren gets more touches. Rams also give Kyren more touches in shotgun formations. If the Rams are trailing and/or Perkins gets the start, would expect less under center looks.

[adamq]

Mack Hollins 80+ yds +480

 

Just need something to root for,  7.75 yards at a time