Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, adamq said:

I was putting in some bets on FD for tomorrow and landed on this wacky parlay of some of your TD picks Broncofan....

Dulcich 2+/Virgil/Pruitt/Hendershot/Kyren

$2.12 to win $997,000, the max allowed. Let's go Rypien! 😂

 

Also Gerald Everett's lines stick out to me.. Engram tore up that defense last week and Everett gets his targets even with Allen playing. 60+ yards seems very doable, +390

 

Edit- 75+ is +1050 on Pointsbet. Flashbacks of Hunter Henry 

Everett TD already down to +340 - good call.    Can’t go yards on him so many mouths to feed lol.  

Edited December 18, 2022 by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

 

Tailing Miles Sanders o68.5 rush yds and adding the 80+ rush yds +180 & 100+ rush yds +360 0.5U FD alt lines. Love the call @N4L & 100 percent back the gamescript.  
 

I found 2 DK plays that have Chris Moore & Tutu Atwell so added both:

-Chris Moore 50+ Rec yds -130 2.6U & 75+ Rec yds +240 & 100+ Rec yds +560 0.5U DK - vs KC D and in slot this is a smash spot   

-Tutu Atwell o28.5 Rec yds 2U & SGP Rams 10+ pts / +17.5 & Atwell 45+ Rec yds +400 with DK SGP boost - as the emerging #2 WR gotta this shot.  
 

Sadly no Rasheed Shaheed yardage plays yet - which means it’s likely in 20’s.   Alt line 40/60 would have been the 3.5U play.  Oh well.  
 

So that’s 3U in ATS/ML plays, 22U in 7 player props (19U/6 for Sunday) & 9.5U in TD props (7U for Sunday).  That’s definitely enough for now lol.  
 

BOL! 

Stupid question, is KC terrible in the slot or something?

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Stupid question, is KC terrible in the slot or something?

They are most vulnerable there. 
 

 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Injury related TD additions - with news Julio Jones is likely inactive added Scotty Miller +950 0.5U FD & Breshad Perriman 0.5U DK.   Also as Donald Parham +700 FD is off IR gotta go there given how much they use him in RZ packages.
 

BOL!  

Edited December 18, 2022 by Broncofan

[adamq]

I dont use BetMGM much because they usually have the worst odds, but I just noticed you can bet alt receptions if you make a SGP. (Only star players it seems, though) Noticed it with Davante Adams, but he's playing the Pats this week 🤢

Edited December 18, 2022 by adamq

[JaguarCrazy2832]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

They are most vulnerable there. 
 

 

Thanks! I am contemplating Moore v Slayton in non-ppr fantasy playoffs

[JaguarCrazy2832]

18 minutes ago, adamq said:

I dont use BetMGM much because they usually have the worst odds, but I just noticed you can bet alt receptions if you make a SGP. (Only star players it seems, though) Noticed it with Davante Adams, but he's playing the Pats this week 🤢

Patriots havent shut down #1 elite WRs the way they have in the past

[adamq]

I love Juwan Johnson 

[thebestever6]

I hate My sports books so much I wanted Shaheed props so bad

[thebestever6]

woo-hoo Peyton Hendershot!

[thebestever6]

I'm done betting the Pat's or anything Pat's related have a 3 leg parlay broncos check, Bengals check, Pat's chhheee nevermind they make Carr look like a God.

[Broncofan]

On 12/16/2022 at 9:37 PM, Broncofan said:

OK so this is going to be one scary weekend lol.....got another 20U+ on Sunday in addition to Sat's 26U set of plays, here goes...

 

WEEK 15 SUN/MON PLAYER PROPS / LONGSHOT TD’s

SUN / MON PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Danny Jones O28.5 rush yds 2U / 40+ rush yds +200 / 60+ rush yds +630 0.5U FD - again, this is a D where the QB run is a major leverage spot.  I do NOT get the alt lines being so generous, but I have to attack this.

Chris Olave O60.5 rec yds 2U - the success NO might encounter running the ball is the only reason I’m not going to attack alt lines here.   But I have to get to the main prop for 2U as long as he’s the main target.

LATE

Greg Dulcich O38.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +260, 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U FD - this is scary as **** with Brett Rypien as the QB - but ARI is soooo bad against TE’s, and we know he’ll be targeted.   Take a deep breath, and believe in the evals.

Mike Williams O65.5 rec yds 2U - I really would like to see the DK alt lines, because I wonder if I can get a better alt line than FD's (which are only at +200 for 90+ & +440 for 110+), but I’m definitely going to go here on the main prop with TEN’s pass D vulnerability, and no Fulton / Autry (pass rush).

3 other players who are flying under the radar where I would love rec yd props:

Rasheed Shaheem, NO WR rec yds 2U- who’s become the #2 WR and a big threat with a full route tree

Chris Moore, HOU WR rec yds 2U + alt lines - who becomes the #1 target vs. KC with Cooks/Collins out.   

Tutu Atwell, LAR WR for MNF rec yds +/- alt lines (may not be enough of a known player) - becoming their speed-threat, but also bubble screen / crosser & YAC guy (not necessarily long-term, but with this motley crue, he's the other guy besides Van Jefferson to get consistent work, appears to be passing Skowronek as top-2 WR).

I’ll be waiting to get both props, at least for 2U plays, and looking for 3.5U plays if there are juicy alt lines.  But that’s 11U in Sunday prop plays, with at least 6U more with those 3 guys as long as props come out (that aren’t insane, but I think they’ll be all low, given they’re not mainstream).

 

SUN/MON LONGSHOT TD PROPS

EARLY

Mycole Pruitt +900 FD - I can’t believe the line is this high, I know NO’s TE D is very good, but Pruitt will still get snaps and looks in the RZ.   Easy play.

Khadarel Hodge +1000 FD 0.5U - same idea, he’s the #3 WR, but they do look his way.     He won’t see the field as much so it’s a 0.5U play.

Juwan Johnson +380 FD / +3500 2+ TD’s (0.8U/0.2U) FD - he’s back this week, they keep offering him near +400, I’ll keep taking it lol.

Rasheed Shaheed +600 / +5000 2+ TD’s (0.8U/0.2U) FD - like I wrote up in the player props, he’s emerging in that NO O as the clear WR2 behind Olave, have to take my shot here.

Adam Prentice +3000 0.25U FD - who?   He’s the NO backup RB who got on the field for about 10 snaps last week.    Total flier, but the odds are so crazy….have to take a sniff (same as my MNF Who-Is-That-Guy 0.25U play).

Peyton Hendershot +1200 TD FD - with confirmation Jason Ferguson is out, he gets all the TE2 work, vs. bottom 5 TE DST in JAX.   Worth the play.

LATE

Greg Dulcich +350 / +3500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - ARI’s D is so TE leaky (another bottom-5 TE D by DVOA), I have to take my shot here as well.

Jalen Vigil +2200 0.5U FD x2 - taking a guess that he may the guy who takes more work with Hinton / Sutton both out.    Hoping I can cash 1 of the 2 bets early with a massive odds drop pre-game for + money and then basically freeroll this play.

Marcus Jones +1000 0.5U - with Meyers still limited and Parker out, they’ll mix him in - he’s a raw player, so can’t go crazy, but a 0.5U play makes sense.

SNF/MNF

Kyren Williams +600 / +5000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - he got a lot more work in the 2H after Akers fumbled, and he’s more of the pass catcher RB anyways, so just taking a MNF shot on long odds, with a clear role.

Tutu Atwell +600 / +5500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - he’s definitely got chemistry with Baker Mayfield, and they scheme plays for him.   So gotta take the shot here.

Austin Trammell +3000 0.25U FD - he’s now their 4th WR, and he’s the other slot…so at that number, I’ve got to take a small stab lol.

So that’s 3U in Sunday ATS/ML plays from before (DET ML +110, DEN -105 ML and CIN -3.5), 11U in player props (and likely 6U more coming) and 9.5U in TD props.  So definitely enough adding 20U+ to the prior card.  BOL!

 

On 12/18/2022 at 12:44 AM, Broncofan said:

 

Today shows the benefit of the alt lines - went 2-5 with player props (J-Taylor 2U play refunded  by DK too along with B365, Pittman and CLE props totally derailed by crazy game script with that massive 1H Indy lead and CLE pass props with 2 missed FG by Tucker and RZ TO by Huntley eliminating the need to throw in 2H  - along with BAL ML too), 0-2 with ATS / ML plays and 0-2 TD (both guys got looks deep in the RZ no regrets). 

But because all the alt lines hit for both Josh Allen rush (50+ being +195 massive at 3U, 75+ at +340) & JK Dobbins rush at +340 / +750 - it’s a +7.2U profit with Taylor refund lol.   I’ll take it.  On to Sunday! 

 

On 12/18/2022 at 4:46 AM, Broncofan said:

 

 

Tailing Miles Sanders o68.5 rush yds and adding the 80+ rush yds +180 & 100+ rush yds +360 0.5U FD alt lines. Love the call @N4L & 100 percent back the gamescript.  
 

I found 2 DK plays that have Chris Moore & Tutu Atwell so added both:

-Chris Moore 50+ Rec yds -130 2.6U & 75+ Rec yds +240 & 100+ Rec yds +560 0.5U DK - vs KC D and in slot this is a smash spot   

-Tutu Atwell o28.5 Rec yds 2U & SGP Rams 10+ pts / +17.5 & Atwell 45+ Rec yds +400 with DK SGP boost - as the emerging #2 WR gotta this shot.  
 

Sadly no Rasheed Shaheed yardage plays yet - which means it’s likely in 20’s.   Alt line 40/60 would have been the 3.5U play.  Oh well.  
 

So that’s 3U in ATS/ML plays, 22U in 7 player props (19U/6 for Sunday) & 9.5U in TD props (7U for Sunday).  That’s definitely enough for now lol.  
 

BOL! 

 

On 12/18/2022 at 11:46 AM, Broncofan said:

Injury related TD additions - with news Julio Jones is likely inactive added Scotty Miller +950 0.5U FD & Breshad Perriman 0.5U DK.   Also as Donald Parham +700 FD 0.5U is off IR gotta go there given how much they use him in RZ packages.
 

BOL!  

Well, Sunday was a bad day for player props - but OMG what a day for ATS/ML picks and TD props.   

ATS/ML - 1-0 ATS, 2-0 ML, +3.1U today (1-3 ATS this week, 2-0 ML this week, +1.1U for Sat/Sun, and +3.1U for the week)

PLAYER PROPS - 1-5, -10.5U and frankly, Mike Williams was a SUPER-lucky cover.   Olave & Moore got to within 10 yds of their main prop early in the 3Q / 1H......and just didn't get it.  Moore got so many targets and drew DPI (just like Isaiah McKenzie, too).   Worst of all, Shaheed would have hit ALL the lines - and likely paid off 9-10U in profit....but that's the way it goes.    Crazy Sat/Sun - I went 3-10 for my WORST player prop weekend - but Allen & Dobbins hitting ALL the juiced props, meant that I got 18.5U profit from those 2 alone, and so still only end up -1.5U for Sat/Sun, and +5U overall for the week.

TD PROPS - 3-9, but what a 3 they were - Shaheed +600, Hendershot +1200, and of course, Juwan Johnson for +380 AND +3500 - so that's a 20.7U profit even with the 9 other misses.  Add the 2 Sat TD misses, it's a +18.7U net profit for Sat/Sun TD-wise an +18.2U for the week.

I will say again that I went 0-3 on my last second TD props, and my last-minute player props went 0-2....for 8.5U in losses.   I'm not going to complain with a +13.3U profit today, and 20.5U for Sat/Sun combined but there is a lesson I keep needing a repeat on lol.  

Still have Danny Jones rush props tonight, and Tutu Atwell O28.5 and 45+ yd props +400 for tomorrow, and Atwell / Kyren Williams TD props - gonna learn from the last minute whiffs today and last couple of weeks and keep it to those plays.   Let's end Week 15 and keep the roll going!

_________________________________________________

 

WEEK 15 TO SNF

ATS/ ML & RACE

37-26-2 ATS, 13-15 ML/RACE, BALANCE +33.3U. (+3.1U, 2-2 ATS, 2-0 ML Week 15 SNF, Week 14 6-0 & 6-leg parley +5200 0.4U parley woohoo)

PLAYER PROPS

104-108,  BALANCE  +45.0U (+4.5U WEEK 15 SNF - Now 60-60 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 K-Allen / H-Henry & Week 15 TNF CMC & Kittle, and Sat Josh Allen / JK Dobbins & Sun M-Williams)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

26-118, BALANCE +131.8U  (+18.2U Week 15 SNF - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwe +500; Week 15 Rashid Shaheem +600 & Peyton Hendershot +1200 & Juwan Johnson +380 & +3500 2+ <woohoo again>)
 

TOTAL:  +209.5U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 - +23.5U; Week 15 SNF - +25.8U).

Edited December 20, 2022 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Only one I'm adding is Cobb +550.. Rodgers will give him a couple chances, even with Doubs back. And you'd have to imagine they put #5 on Watson in the RZ.

[Broncofan]

OK my Danny Jones O28.5 rush yds main prop won, and it fell 2 yds short of the 1st alt line for 40+ (and obv 60+ missed), so it's 0.5U profit...lol.  Still, I'll take it.

For tonight, I've had the Atwell props and the 3 longshot Ram TD plays, but I'll add 1 ATS pick and 1 alt line play for GB:.

ATS/ML

LAR +7.5 2U - one thing Sean McVay has instilled even in a lost season, the Rams play hard.   With GB's D issues, I feel OK with saying it's a 1-score game.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Tutu Atwell O28.5 rec yds 2U DK, 40+ rec yds +400 bonus boost on DK(with LAR scoring 13+ pts and +14.5), and 40+ rec yds +240 FD & 60+ rec yds +550 0.5U FD - the FD lines finally came out, so added them too.

Christian Watson O47.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ rec yds +270 FD - only will take 1 alt line, but it's worth it, esp as Jalen Ramsey has been giving up chunk plays.  

Watson is the new play, Atwell's the same as before.

 

TD PROPS

Tutu Atwell +600 / +6500 (0.8U/0.2U) FD - covered from before

Kyren Williams +600 / +5500 (0.8U/0.2U) FD - covered from before

Austin Trammell +3000 0.5U - doubled it to live a little since I've had such a great weekend with the TD props.   

So that's 11U total for tonight, but Watson & the LAR +7.5U are the only new plays.   Let's end Week 15 and keep the profit going!

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Ugh @ Baker Mayfield, and for me putting my faith he could just hit open guys.   Atwell added to it by dropping a 25+ yard crosser that would have paid the main prop, and likely cashed 40+ as he could have even scored a TD....and then Baker doesn't throw to the right spot for another TD, and then next drive has a wide open Atwell who's beaten his CB by 6-7 yards on a double move, 50+ yard play and walk-in TD....and Baker underthrows it by 10+ yards....UGH.

Watson meanwhile misses by 1.5 yds...and doesn't get the audible that gives him an easy prop win, and likely TD with 2 mins left, that would have given LAR one last drive for Atwell to get garbage time.   Damn, what a sequence.

Still, LAR +7.5 was a bad call, and the other 2 TD props had no shot.   Still, once again the lesson to just stick to main leans would have saved 5.5U...but instead, it's a -11U night.  UGH.    

The crazy part - it's still a +15.3U profit Week 15, mostly thanks to 2 guys hitting all their alt lines and the 3 mega TD props hitting.....so I'll lick my MNF wounds and look to bounce back for TNF and get Week 16 into the black again.

_______________

 

WEEK 15 FINAL

ATS/ ML & RACE

37-27-2 ATS, 13-15 ML/RACE, BALANCE +31.3U. (+1.1U, 2-2 ATS, 2-0 ML Week 15 , Week 14 6-0 & 6-leg parley +5200 0.4U parley woohoo)

PLAYER PROPS

104-108,  BALANCE  +39U (-2.5U WEEK 15  - Now 60-60 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 K-Allen / H-Henry & Week 15 TNF CMC & Kittle, and Sat Josh Allen / JK Dobbins & Sun M-Williams)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

26-118, BALANCE +129.2U  (+16.7U Week 15 SNF - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwe +500; Week 15 Rashid Shaheem +600 & Peyton Hendershot +1200 & Juwan Johnson +380 & +3500 2+ <woohoo again>)
 

TOTAL:  +199.5U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 - +23.5U; Week 15 SNF - +15.3U).