Broncofan Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 (edited) Vegas goes 4-3 with public heavy favorite plays. Given it was 70+ percent they made a killing here. Again this doesn’t mean heavy public plays are all wrong - but I don’t want to see my card with nothing but heavy public backers for favorites lol. The interesting part - ARI only dog that covered of the 4 above that lost outright. And their spread was +7. The data that supports dog ML with spreads of 6 or less gets another small sample of support (again a split ATS / ML dog play is fine but taking 100% ATS alone is leaving value on the table). Edited September 11, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Largely even week winners GB Mia Philly Higbee Hill parlay Losers Pitt JJ parlay Chase parlay Had a great college and DraftKings week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 (edited) 13 hours ago, Broncofan said: WEEK 1 MNF ATS/ML (1-1, even) NYJ +120 ML 1U - already covered before. PLAYER PROPS (5-5, -0.5U) Josh Allen o36.5 rush yds 2U - with such good coverage and a good pass rush, this usually translates to Allen rush yards. No alt lines out yet I’ll see what they offer on FD for 60+. Dalton Kincaid o26.5 Rec yds 2U, 50+ Rec yds +320 1U DK - the NYJ CB’s are great. Kincaid is the true slot guy. Def some risk because he’s a rookie making his debut but gotta trust my evals. LONGSHOT TD (3-8, +8.8U) Trent Sherfield +900 or better FD 0.8U / +8000 2+ 0.2U DK - I say +900 or better because if you wait until last hour before Gametime the TD odds for longshots usually increase (unless their role changes). Given his size I think he plays the RZ big slot (while Deonte Harty plays between 20’s). That’s 7U on MNF (1U from before), that’s enough for now. BOL! 2023 - Week 1 to TNF - +8.3U (37U stake) As I’d hoped FD has Sherfield up to +1100 so I’d wait until after 7 PM. Odds often go up with longshots for prime time games there. Edited September 11, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wentz you dog you Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 12 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said: draftkings by far imo I did Bet365... Get $365 in miscellaneous bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wentz you dog you Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, Broncofan said: As I’d hoped FD has Sherfield up to +1100 so I’d wait until after 7 PM. Odds often go up with longshots for prime time games there. This may be a dumb question, but does Josh Allen lose rushing stats when he gets sacked? Or only if there is a loss on designed runs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Any prop bets y'all like tonight @N4L @BStanRamFan @Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Just now, NYRaider said: Any prop bets y'all like tonight @N4L @BStanRamFan @Broncofan It does pay to read back a page 😜 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 On 9/7/2023 at 8:55 AM, BStanRamFan said: Michael Thomas over 3.5 receptions +120 Kenneth Walker longesst rush over 15.5 yards (dont touch at 16.5) Calvin Ridley O57.5 receiving yards is gone, but some 60.5 still out there Nick CHubb over 73.5 rushing yards Im fading Kenny Pickett, under 213.5 passing yards These were goated prop god 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Just now, Broncofan said: It does pay to read back a page 😜 I'm still hung over on this victory Monday after our 8th straight W over the Broncos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, Wentz you dog you said: This may be a dumb question, but does Josh Allen lose rushing stats when he gets sacked? Or only if there is a loss on designed runs? Designed runs. Including kneel downs. Usually it’s only 1-2 yds per kneel. Mahomes lost 9 in the SB game that led to the over missing by 0.5 yards. I didn’t take it but that’s an all time bad beat lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Just now, NYRaider said: I'm still hung over on this victory Monday after our 8th straight W over the Broncos If I wasn’t working I’d be hung over for the same reason. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BStanRamFan Posted September 11, 2023 Author Share Posted September 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, NYRaider said: These were goated prop god This was my full card for Sunday. Just crushed it. The ladders were the move. TD scorers hit on the favorites, but the longer shots are always at lower U amounts. Appreciate the shout out man! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BStanRamFan Posted September 11, 2023 Author Share Posted September 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Any prop bets y'all like tonight @N4L @BStanRamFan @Broncofan Greg Zuerlein O1.5 PAT Made. I got it at -150 but its at -166 now. Team total set at 23.5 so 3 TDs to make two PAT's is worth the juice. James Cook over 14.5 receiving yards. Should see the uptick in volume and improved pass protection will keep him on the field more outside of redzone opps. Jets defense actually susceptible to pass catching RB's. This is a good number. TD: Allen Lazard +285 Gut that I didnt bet, but still might: Gabe Davis. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 27 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said: This was my full card for Sunday. Just crushed it. The ladders were the move. TD scorers hit on the favorites, but the longer shots are always at lower U amounts. Appreciate the shout out man! Y 29 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said: This was my full card for Sunday. Just crushed it. The ladders were the move. TD scorers hit on the favorites, but the longer shots are always at lower U amounts. Appreciate the shout out man! I just shouted you out on Twitter as well. TMathisSports follows you, you are a lucky man, she is so damn fine 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 28 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said: Greg Zuerlein O1.5 PAT Made. I got it at -150 but its at -166 now. Team total set at 23.5 so 3 TDs to make two PAT's is worth the juice. James Cook over 14.5 receiving yards. Should see the uptick in volume and improved pass protection will keep him on the field more outside of redzone opps. Jets defense actually susceptible to pass catching RB's. This is a good number. TD: Allen Lazard +285 Gut that I didnt bet, but still might: Gabe Davis. Gabe Davis got absolutely strapped by the Jets last year and IIRC the Jets defense had the fewest air yards allowed in the NFL last season. I kind of want to fade Diggs / Davis tonight and take Cook / Kincaid's overs, thoughts on that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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