Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

& some Player Props I like.....

 

Jared Goff U35.5 Attempts - He has not hit 36 attempts this season, & TNF games are notoriously low scoring. I also expect the Packers offense to be able to control the clock on the offensive end of things, limiting Goff's attempts. Very close to hitting this one. 

Sam LaPorta O17.5 Longest Reception (1u) - Playing this one. LaPorta has posted a yardage high of 45 & 23 yards in his last 2 games (exceeded 5 targets in each). No matter who Jaire covers, it won't be Sam. 

Jordan Love O36.5 Longest Completion (0.5u) - This one too. Love has only done this in 1 of 3 games so far -- hence the 0.5u play -- but he gets Christian Watson back this week (I think) & the Lions are beatable over the top. 

Bijan O25.5 Receiving (1.2u) - I will continue to love this line for Bijan. Dumping it off to him is a clear desire for this offense & I trust him to break one off. His O/U Receptions is 4.5(!) which makes this an easy hit for me. Staying away from rushing in a game where the Falcons aren't favored (might become a pattern for me) but I think the receiving line can hit regardless of game script. 

Bijan O14.5 Carries - It's admittedly a higher number than I expected to see, but I still like it. He saw 10 carries Week 1 as Allgeier led the way, 19 carries Week 2 in a close game, & 10 carries last week in a blowout. My expectation leans this is a competitive game, & the over here is +110, so I'm very tempted to hit this. I think Atlanta comes out with authority in London. No defense wants to wake up with jet lag & get hit in the mouth. I fully expect that to be Arthur Smith's message to his team. 

Calvin Ridley O66.5 Receiving - Hesitant to hit one considering I'm already on Kirk's Over, but the revenge game narrative is REALLY enticing. You just know that's in the air. My only concern is how much AJ Terrell he'll see.

Christian Kirk O4.5 Receptions (1.1u) - I already hit his yards....dare I hit receptions? Yep, let's bold the text. 

ARSB or Josh Reynolds O Receiving - Whatever I hear back on Jaire Alexander will dictate which direction I go here. If Jaire follows ARSB, I may also hit LaPorta. 

 

These are the only games I have available so far. Hopeful to make some money off the TNF slate to give me more to play with for the weekend. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[SaveOurSonics]

These are super random Futures but I'm on a roll right now....

 

Matt Eberflus 1st Coach Fired (1u @ +250) - I love this. The Bears have the perfect combination of expectations + drama + current letdown. He has lower odds than Josh McDaniels (+200), which I think is backwards. More on him....

Josh McDaniels 1st Coach Fired (0.5u @ +200) - Hedging the Eberflus bet, which means I win +2u if he's fired 1st instead of 2.5u. McDaniels is the only other likely candidate, & that's mostly just due to him genuinely being a bad coach that they should fire. The next likeliest coach is Ron Rivera, which I just don't think is likely at all. I think they ride out the season with Rivera & look to promote Bienemy next season. 

Brandon Staley 1st Coach Fired (0.3u @ +850) - The final piece to the puzzle, & the only other likely candidate in my mind. He's next in line after Rivera, but his odds are twice as low. If the Chargers continue to struggle (it took a goal line INT to avoid 0-3), Staley is going to get a LOT of heat. 

All in all I take +1.7u with an Eberflus fire, -0.3u if McDaniels is fired first, & +1u if Staley is fired first. Really like all of those outcomes & it could hit in the next few weeks, so not a long-term future tying up my money (hopefully). 

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

These are super random Futures but I'm on a roll right now....

 

Matt Eberflus 1st Coach Fired (1u @ +250) - I love this. The Bears have the perfect combination of expectations + drama + current letdown. He has lower odds than Josh McDaniels (+200), which I think is backwards. More on him....

Josh McDaniels 1st Coach Fired (0.5u @ +200) - Hedging the Eberflus bet, which means I win +2u if he's fired 1st instead of 2.5u. McDaniels is the only other likely candidate, & that's mostly just due to him genuinely being a bad coach that they should fire. The next likeliest coach is Ron Rivera, which I just don't think is likely at all. I think they ride out the season with Rivera & look to promote Bienemy next season. 

Brandon Staley 1st Coach Fired (0.3u @ +850) - The final piece to the puzzle, & the only other likely candidate in my mind. He's next in line after Rivera, but his odds are twice as low. If the Chargers continue to struggle (it took a goal line INT to avoid 0-3), Staley is going to get a LOT of heat. 

All in all I take +1.7u with an Eberflus fire, -0.3u if McDaniels is fired first, & +1u if Staley is fired first. Really like all of those outcomes & it could hit in the next few weeks, so not a long-term future tying up my money (hopefully). 

Re: firing, I don't think we're going to see Josh McDaniel fired in-season, and we may not see it this offseason, either.  Mark Davis is the most cash-poor owner in the NFL (he has 1 other asset - the Las Vegas Aces).    Reports indicated he was able to fire Jon Gruden only because it was with cause (the email firestorm) that allowed most of the remaining contract to be voided.    McDaniels certainly has earned consideration, but it's not a great bet at those odds given what we know about Mark Davis.    TBH, that's the issue with Staley as well - the Spanos family are super-cheap.   

Staley is a lock to be fired if the Chargers miss the playoffs, but I think that's end of season.   McDaniels is likely only 50-50 to be gone at end of season, given Mark Davis' $ situation.   I'm not sure I'd want to bet them as first, given someone usually gets fired in-season.

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Some ATTD lines I'm eyeing right now...

Jonnu Smith +800 - Falcons backup TE, he gets a lot of snaps in their goal line personnel & has the speed to house one with space. 

Latavius Murray (+250) and/or Damien Harris (+500) - Both of these numbers seem crazy to me. It's the highest implied total of the weekend & these are the Bills two goal line RBs. I might hit both of these, but love the Harris line in particular. 

Durham Smythe (+350) and/or Tyler Kroft (+1100) - Again, I might hit both of these. Smythe has been getting a ton of RZ targets & Kroft is the backup brought in on goal line personnel. Same logic as the last one. 

Ryan Tannehill (+750) - Gut call here. Tannehill hasn't been running much, but he's mobile & I can just see this. He's averaged 5 rushing TDs per season with the Titans, & already has 1 in 2023. Get this, his odds are lower than Jake Brownings! 

Treylon Burks (+350) - I just think those are really good odds for the Titans #1 deep threat in a game against weak Safeties. May not play this one per @Broncofan guidance to go for longshots. 

Justin Fields (+100) - Obviously you don't love +100, but I do love Fields to score against a defense that just got gashed by speed last week. Again, may not play. 

Roschon Johnson (+250) - This line keeps getting smaller by the week. Roschon just out-touched Herbert last week, & I expect that gap to grow more this week. I think this game has sneaky Over potential (two bad defenses & in Chicago) & I have a lot of plays I like here. 

Marvin MIms (+450) - Another line that continues to shrink. Mims can beat you on deep balls & special teams. I will continue to like this line so long as the Broncos defense is this bad. 

Lil'Jordan Humphrey (+1000) - More of a Broncofan play, but I like the Over here & I like Humphrey's jump ball ability with Russ at these odds (Brandon Johnson is cooked all the way up to +550). 

Jake Ferguson (+300) - Another one I will continue to hit at these odds. Dak Prescott leads the NFL in TE targets since taking over as starter. Ferguson may not get a lot of looks, but he gets the ones that count. 

Michael Gallup (+375) - If you can't tell, I think the Cowboys win this one comfortably, so I want action on their guys. Brandin Cooks is currently sitting at +295, & I don't expect him to play. Expect this number to shrink if/when that is announced. Gallup looked great last week & should avoid Christian Gonzalez. 

KaVontae Turpin (+1100) - Again, I see Dallas bouncing back in a big way. Turpin is a dynamic return man & I don't mind throwing a fraction of a u on him housing one. 

 

Let me know what you guys think! Might place some of these now & wait for feedback on others. 

 

As you know, I don't recommend most plays under +400, because TD's are more random than we think.   So I'll leave those off the table, and some comments on the plays that are +400 or longer:

Jonnu Smith +800 - crazy to say, but very sound play.   Yes Kyle Pitts is the alpha, but Smith does play a ton of 12 personnel, and the super-wild thing is ATL targets the other TE as much as Pitts (lol Arthur Smith).    So def worth a play, but you have to take games in which ATL may be trailing, and a decent run D.   Fortunately, that's EXACTLY what we are seeing in JAX, who is 4th in DVOA vs the run.   Definite play this week.

Tyler Kroft - not a bad play on other weeks, but I'll likely avoid, as BUF is tough against TE's TD-wise (Cole Turner almost got there though..ack 1 yard line).   BUF is much easier to attack with zone-busting WR's and RB's, so there's a clearer path with the other guys. 

Ryan Tannehill / Treylon Burks - the issue is that TEN's OL is horrible, bottom 5 OL at present.   And we saw what DC Lou Amarumo does with bad OL's on MNF.    Right idea, but this is one week I'll pass on.

Lil'Jordan Humphrey - sadly, he's seeing less & less time now that Jerry Jeudy is back.   Brandon Johnson is the clear 4th guy now and 1st guy they add in to the RZ if 1 of the big 3 are out.   Have to pass as a result (but if one of the top 4 got hurt, and he stayed at those odds, sure - just not this week).   The one caveat this week - if you thought DEN was going to blow out CHI, or vice-versa, then you could see snaps.   It's what got Chris Brooks and Robbie Chosen out there on the field ( I was really hoping Brooks would get out sooner lol).    But I don't think we'll see either result, so pass.

Ka'vonte Turpin - the problem here is his gadget play usage has disappeared.  He's down to 2 snaps last week on O.   Taking him solely for returns is too iffy.  I was hoping to see the same with Devon Allen last MNF, but I also thought we'd see him take 10+ snaps as a deep threat - nope.   If it's solely kick returns, can't really bank on that.  If you think he's getting work in a blowout, it's totally playable, but it's tough because there are other guys they want to work in (Jalen Tolbert the main guy).  Pass as well.

 

Hope that helps,

PS - two guys I am interested in are so off-the-radar the books didn't have them so far - Tanner Hudson (@SmittyBacall gets the credit) and JAX 4th WR Tim Jones (FD +1000, but nowhere else).   Worth 0.5U if they come in at +1000 or more, I'm hoping Hudson gets added on Sunday after inactives are released.  

 

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

9 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

@Broncofandoes Dotson for the commanders ever line up in the slot? I had to take it at 36.5 but can always cash out they're going against Philly. 

Dotson has about 80+ slot snaps, which is a good sign; it's truly crazy how little he's used.   

I actually think the number might go down, given Dotson's complete lack of usage and WAS' OL issues, so I'm willing to wait on the number.  If I see it go up, I'll consider.    The issue isn't last week's BUF stinker (knew it might be coming, why Cole Turner was only guy I felt good about - too bad there was no yardage prop, he would have smashed it at 35 yds, Logan Thomas is set at 20.5 - he would have been in the mid-teens, oh well).    It's that what WAS struggles with (bad OL) is where PHI crushes (that front 4).    I've put him on my wait list, and likely would consider a 2U play, but this is the matchup where his ceiling is capped way more than in future weeks.    I hope he doesn't to nuclear against PHI - because weeks 5-7 he gets CHI, ATL & NYG - yum yum yum.

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

On 9/26/2023 at 8:58 AM, SmittyBacall said:

Tanner Hudson will be an intriguing longshot TD next week for the Bengals. He wasn't even on the books this week, but surprisingly played the majority of TE snaps and clearly operated as our pass catching TE with Irv Smith on the shelf. I think he had some redzone looks as well. Anything +600 or greater should be played with confidence versus a pass funneling Tennessee defense.

Tanner Hudson to score opened at +1000 1U (and +12500 to score twice 0.2U). Get on it.

Irv Smith was DNP on Wednesday. Trending in the right direction for Hudson to start again Sunday.

Edited September 28, 2023 by SmittyBacall

[SmittyBacall]

More props from Bengals @ Titans I like

Joe Mixon UNDER 53.5 rushing yards - Simply put, and as evidenced by last Monday, our running game sucks. And while Mixon will see the overwhelming majority of RB snaps, and could possibly reach 15+ carries on Sunday in a winning effort, I don't expect him to do much at all versus an elite run stuffing unit in Tennessee. I think he averages 3 YPC or less.

Tee Higgins over 58.5 receiving yards - Had maybe the worst game of his pro career last week, so I expect a bounce back game here against a pass funneling defense. The alluring match up here is Higgins versus Roger McCreary - it's well established that the Bengals love scheming the towering Higgins against miniscule corners to take deep shot (see Higgins vs. McCreary 2022 or Higgins vs. Jack/Marcus Jones (NE) 2022). And to top it all off Higgins is a Tennessee native and will want to show out in front of friends and family after last weeks debacle.

Also worth sharing Higgins' two career games @ Tennessee:

2022 - 7 rec, 114 yards, 1 TD

2022 (playoffs) - 7 rec, 96 yards

Edited September 28, 2023 by SmittyBacall

[Broncofan]

37 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Tanner Hudson to score opened at +1000 1U (and +12500 to score twice 0.2U). Get on it.

Irv Smith was DNP on Wednesday. Trending in the right direction for Hudson to start again Sunday.

Which book?  DK Canada doesn't have him, FD down for maintenance lol

[SmittyBacall]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

Which book?  DK Canada doesn't have him, FD down for maintenance lol

B365.

[thebestever6]

Just now, Broncofan said:

Which book?  DK Canada doesn't have him, FD down for maintenance lol

bet365 they normally have worse odds I may just put it in worst comes to worst I can cash out if the numbers are better elsewhere. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

B365.

Gotcha, I'm restricted there - fortunately, Bodog/Bovada has it, so I took the standard 0.8U/0.2U play.

3 other decent longshot plays:

Tanner Hudson +1000 / +12500 0.8U / 0.2U B365 / Bodog /Bovada (full credit to @SmittyBacall here) - Irv Smith DNP, known hammy injury that he missed week 3 for, high likelihood he doesn't play, and TEN pass D great target.

Jonnu Smith +800 / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U (+600 or +500 elsewhere) - @SaveOurSonics covered it, and he's on the field so much in RZ territory with 12 formation.   Worth the 0.4U / 0.1U stab.

 Tim Jones +1000 0.4U FD (no 2-TD alt lines out yet) - Zay Jones is doubtful, so Tim Jones becomes the 3rd WR in the RZ rotation (Jamal Agnew is the gadget / between 20's guy & occ RZ snaps, but Jones is the bigger body).  I honestly think books don't have him because they get Zay & Tim mixed up. 

Trent Sherfield +1000 Bodog (+850 DK, +600 FD lol) / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U/0.1U & Khalil Shakir (+1000 DK & FD, +450 Bodog lol) / +11000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - this is a cheap way to get a piece of the BUF-MIA game TD wise.    Both split the slot work in the RZ (Deonte Hardy gets most of his work between the 20's).   Given how much of a shootout this projects to be, totally worth it to play both, especially given the wide variation in lines.

Keep an eye out on DK/FD for both Hudson & Tim Jones daily, and on Sunday AM, when inactives are out. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Doing my Thursday fantasy football chores, Julian Hill, TE for Miamk might be a guy to keep an eye on. UDFA, one of those former QB turned TE, more of a blocker than receiver but played 78% of snaps and only has Durham Smythe to compete with

[Broncofan]

With him expected to play I have to take David Montgomery O45.5 rush yds 2U, 75+ rush yds +440 1U DK - this one is a roll of the dice on Monty's health.   If he's even close to 95 percent, with GB's run D and DET's OL, he should smash 75+ with 15 carries.   It's really just a Q of whether they use him that much.   But he's gone 15-122, 14-61, 10-42 (playing way behind early), 22-69 & 11-103 on FAR worse OL in DET.  I used the 0.2U max 50 percent boost to get Monty's 75+ alt line from +400 to +440 as it's my last addition and the boost came after.   YOLO play for sure.

That's a total of 11U on today's card - 1U on DET ML (7-pt lead auto-win DK), 8U on 3 player props (Monty above, Jayden Reed O37.5 rec yds & Luke Musgrave O33.5 rec yds 2U & 50+ alt line) & 2U for 3 TD props (Goff, Bam Knight for 0.5U each, and Dontayvion Wicks for 1U), so 11U on both sides, for what I'm hoping is a great game and at least 1 pt where DET leads by 7+.   BOL!

Edited September 28, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

With him expected to play I have to take David Montgomery O45.5 rush yds 2U, 75+ rush yds +440 1U DK - this one is a roll of the dice on Monty's health.  

 

Not a bad play but I'll probably avoid this one. Similar to Kendre, there's just too much potential variance here. 

I typically write-out my favorite props & then assign 1, 2, or 3 stars to them to indicate my confidence level. Even if I like them, I tend to throw out the 1's, play some of the 2's, & all of the 3's. 

This DMont line would be a 1-star play. Interesting enough to get written down, but unlikely to be played. That said, best of luck of course! I have DMont in multiple fantasy leagues so I'm rooting for him regardless. 

[SaveOurSonics]

2 hours ago, adamq said:

Doing my Thursday fantasy football chores, Julian Hill, TE for Miamk might be a guy to keep an eye on. UDFA, one of those former QB turned TE, more of a blocker than receiver but played 78% of snaps and only has Durham Smythe to compete with

Great shout. I noticed in my ATTD write-up that I was eyeing Tyler Kroft to get in on the Dolphins backup TE odds. Sounds like Hill is a much better fit than Kroft. 

I will say, it looks like Kroft will be back for the first time this season, which may or may not impact Hill's playing time. Might be best to avoid them altogether & go with Smythe (that's what I did).