Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

21 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

but that won't change PHI's philosophy about being a running team and letting the OL wear on D's. 

This is where we disagree. It was infuriating watching last week's game having Swift O63.5 Rush. 

1st & 10 on the 20 yard line. 90 seconds left in a tie game. Washington has like 1 or 2 timeouts left. You're running the ball well with Swift. You're absolutely running the ball here, ya? 

Nope, let's chuck up a fade route to AJ Brown (iirc). Washington has plenty of time and goes down and ties the game. 

Surely we've learned something from that! 

Nope. Come overtime, the Eagles are passing the ball relentlessly just outside of FG range. Maddening. They finally hit a slant route on 3rd & long to put themselves in long FG range for the win. 

You are overestimating this team's commitment to running the ball. At least through 4 weeks of this year. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Wanted to add notes to plays. Realized I hadn't done that. 

49 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Alright, here's my full TNF Card.....

 

Darnell Mooney O29.5 Receiving - He's hit the Over in every game he's finished this year. 

Brian Robinson O6.5 Receiving - He's received 2+ targets in every game they haven't lost by 30+. Bears have given up the most RB receiving yards in the league. 

Terry McLaurin O57.5 Receiving - More of a gut call. Terry has only hit this Over once this year (last week), but Chicago's secondary is terrible, whereas the run D isn't bad. Terry has been the clear WR1. 

Antonio Gibson U22.5 Rushing - Really weird line. Gibson hasn't hit this number all year. He has 5 carries for 16 yards in the Commanders 2 wins. They're favored by a TD. The Bears have a top 10 run D by YPC. 

Cole Kmet U31.5 Receiving - Another gut call. I thought this line would be inflated after Kmet's huge game last week, but Vegas was too sharp for that. Washington's TE defense is elite, so Kmet could catch 5 balls tonight & not hit the Over. 

DJ Moore O3.5 Receptions - DJ has 14 catches in the 2 games the Bears have kept within 10 points. I see this being a close game. 

Sam Howell O238.5 Passing - Give me offense tonight! As I said, the way to beat the Bears defense is through the air. 

Justin Fields O193.5 Passing - And way to beat the Commanders defense is through the air. 

Darnell Mooney ATTD +550 - Why not. 

Bears O19.5 Points - I'm betting on offense tonight (scary thing to do on TNF). 

Commanders Win by 1-6 +350 - Like I said, I don't want to pick the winner, I just want to pick a close game. 

Bears Win by 1-6 +450 

Bears +14.5 (one leg of a Teaser) - This.....has to hit, right? 

Bears Commanders O36 (one leg of a Teaser) - Offense, please? 

 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

This is where we disagree. It was infuriating watching last week's game having Swift O63.5 Rush. 

1st & 10 on the 20 yard line. 90 seconds left in a tie game. Washington has like 1 or 2 timeouts left. You're running the ball well with Swift. You're absolutely running the ball here, ya? 

Nope, let's chuck up a fade route to AJ Brown (iirc). Washington has plenty of time and goes down and ties the game. 

Surely we've learned something from that! 

Nope. Come overtime, the Eagles are passing the ball relentlessly just outside of FG range. Maddening. They finally hit a slant route on 3rd & long to put themselves in long FG range for the win. 

You are overestimating this team's commitment to running the ball. At least through 4 weeks of this year. 

Here’s the thing - WAS run D is a top 10 run unit and they absolutely stymie the PHI run game.  In 2022 both games they held Phi to 75 and 84 yards rushing.   Same rosters for phi OL & was DL.   They are however a bottom 10 pass D by DVOA this year and were a bottom half pass D last year.   The main take home message there is pass props are what to target when facing WAS D.    Phi going pass late in game wasn’t surprising given this.   
 

I get last week sucked if you backed Swift - but we’ve seen Phi commit to the run time & again when they believe their OL has the edge.   MIN & TAM were 2 strong examples.    NE D, they didn't have Swift, but it was a tough matchup as well.   The Rams run D is that advantageous situation.   There are very few situations where that isn’t the case because PHI's OL is elite - but WAS run D / pass D was one of them.   It’s why the Eagles run % is highest in league in neutral-game script  - but it’s still 54 percent.    There are times where pass prevails.  That was one of them.   It’s also why I’m backing DJ Moore Rec yd props and Fields rush yd props tonight (because WAS in pass rush ironically are more prone to QB runs with poor lane control). 
 

The matchups matter - it’s why it’s not just a talent assessment - volume / usage, matchups & gamescript all factor in.   In this week it really favors the run game at that number.    I’ll stand on that.  
 

We don’t have to agree here - the thread doesn’t need to be an echo chamber on each play.   But I’d suggest maybe you’re attributing the wrong conclusion on PHI philosophy when it’s really about how best to attack the WAS D.   All good either way; no one’s going to be right every time, or even close.   Frankly, the ever-present Swift injury risk or making it a Gainwell-day are what gives me ulcers backing him lol.  

Edited October 5, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

6 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Here’s the thing - WAS run D is a top 10 run unit and they absolutely stymie the PHI run game.  In 2022 both games they held Phi to 75 and 84 yards rushing.   Same rosters for phi OL & was DL.   They are however a bottom 10 pass D by DVOA this year and were a bottom half pass D last year.   The main take home message there is pass props are what to target when facing WAS D.    Phi going pass late in game wasn’t surprising given this.   
 

I get last week sucked if you backed Swift - but we’ve seen Phi commit to the run when they believe their OL has the edge.   The Rams run D is that situation.   There are very few situations where that isn’t the case - but WAS run D / pass D was one of them.   It’s why their run % is highest in league in neutral-game script  - but it’s still 54 percent.    There are times where pass prevails.  That was one of them.  
 

The matchups matter - it’s why it’s not just a talent assessment - volume / usage, matchups & gamescript all factor in.   In this week it really favors the run game at that number.    I’ll stand on that.  
 

We don’t have to agree here - the thread doesn’t need to be an echo chamber on each play.   But I’d suggest maybe you’re attributing the wrong conclusion on PHI philosophy when it’s really about how best to attack the WAS D.   All good either way; no one’s going to be close to perfect.   Frankly, the ever-present Swift injury risk or making it a Gainwell-day are what gives me ulcers backing him lol.  

Solid rationale. I looked into the Rams metrics vs WRs / TEs & was surprised by just how stingy they've been against both this year. That does make me feel better about the distribution of the Eagles game plan. 

I may tail. 

Edited October 5, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[adamq]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Dalton Kincaid O3.5 catches FD +130 2U (if you have B365, take the 4/5 alt lines instead - better odds) - covered before, hit 5+ catches in 3/4 games, snap shares increasing, Jags D that allows TE volume.  I don't have B365 but if you have it, 5+ is a smash spot at juiced odds there.

 

FYI everyone, Pointsbet usually offers alt reception props along with yards. Thus is the only other book I've seen offer these. No player props up on their app at the moment for that game, though.

[Tank4Drake]

[Broncofan]

One more Sunday TD play - Noah Gray +700 FD (+650 Bodog) / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - MIN pass D offers the same type of setup as last week where TE’s can score.  At this number I have to go back to the well with Gray’s usage and targets.   

Edited October 5, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Not sure how you guys feel about it, but my buddy just convinced me to throw 1u on Khalil Herbert O13.5 Receiving.

 

I did zero due diligence on this but he sent me a summary of his rationale + data & I couldn't not tail. 

[braylon]

So my favorite prop of the night is BRob over 15.5 rushing attempts, easily. I honestly think sprinkles on his alts of 20+ at +240 and 25+ at +1450 are in play. I think WAS dominates and runs the ball a fair bit. Apparently others aren't exatly thinking that... 😅

[Broncofan]

57 minutes ago, braylon said:

So my favorite prop of the night is BRob over 15.5 rushing attempts, easily. I honestly think sprinkles on his alts of 20+ at +240 and 25+ at +1450 are in play. I think WAS dominates and runs the ball a fair bit. Apparently others aren't exatly thinking that... 😅

Well B-Rob rush prop bets are 99% on the over.   His total rush yds has moved from 62.5 to 65.5.   I think a lot of ppl love B-Rob tonight (myself included).  
 

I think ppl just see other opps as well, that’s all.   I like the Carries main play - just with TNF we often see the RB work split more.   David Montgomery bucked the trend last week but it’s a pretty good principle.   I’m already leveraged on the yardage prop with alt lines for 3.5U, so I’ll pass but I don’t think ppl taking other props isn’t a reflection on lack of enthusiasm for B-Rob.  

Edited October 5, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

1 hour ago, braylon said:

So my favorite prop of the night is BRob over 15.5 rushing attempts, easily. I honestly think sprinkles on his alts of 20+ at +240 and 25+ at +1450 are in play. I think WAS dominates and runs the ball a fair bit. Apparently others aren't exatly thinking that... 😅

I will be surprised if Washington dominates. If Chicago is able to get out to an early lead as they did against Denver, it could be a heavy Gibson night. 

I'm not saying I think that will happen, but imo, that's more likely than the Commanders dominating start to finish. 

[braylon]

53 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Well B-Rob rush prop bets are 99% on the over.   His total rush yds has moved from 62.5 to 65.5.   I think a lot of ppl love B-Rob tonight (myself included).  
 

I think ppl just see other opps as well, that’s all.   I like the Carries main play - just with TNF we often see the RB work split more.   David Montgomery bucked the trend last week but it’s a pretty good principle.   I’m already leveraged on the yardage prop with alt lines for 3.5U, so I’ll pass but I don’t think ppl taking other props isn’t a reflection on lack of enthusiasm for B-Rob.  

Fair response, completely makes sense. I just expect them to control the game and lean into Brian Robinson to the point where I am also eyeing Howell under 260.5 passing+rushing (and 240.5 passing, but with their anemic pass rush I don't expect Howell to feel the need to take off much, so it feels to me there's a cushion somewhere in those extra 20 yards), but not quite playing it. But I am tossing it into a boosted SGP where I also take Dotson's over and the odds shoot up major lol.

I honestly do expect over for Mclaurin and Dotson, and even less confidently Thomas and Robinson (and even Samuel). Still, Howell's number feels a little high to me, especially because of my expectation for the gamescript.

[braylon]

41 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I will be surprised if Washington dominates. If Chicago is able to get out to an early lead as they did against Denver, it could be a heavy Gibson night. 

I'm not saying I think that will happen, but imo, that's more likely than the Commanders dominating start to finish. 

I will be completely shocked if it's a heavy Gibson night lol, but I hear you. I think the Commanders defensive line is going to overwhelm the Bears offensive line and I do think this is a get right spot for Dotson and the passing game from an efficiency standpoint. But I think they will control the game with short passes and runs to the point where Robinson clears 20 carries. I'm not putting my money where my mouth is on the -6 spread to be honest, the props feel safer.

[adamq]

Against better judgement I ended up taking Moonet over 29.5 and alts up to 60+. Didn't see what happened downfield on that first play but damn!

[Broncofan]

DJ Moore hits all 3 lines in the FIRST Q.   LOL.