Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

16 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Not sure what any of the player prop lines are, but here's the players I'll be targeting at the line I'm predicting. Obviously if it's too far off this projected number, I won't play it. Would love any thoughts / feedback on these. 

 

RUSHING

Breece Hall O65 - Giants bottom 5 run defense

Jahmyr Gibbs O52 - Vikings bottom 10 run defense, worse on the road

Kareem Hunt U55 - Seahawks run defense is #1 in the league & Hunt isn't the type of back to beat them 

Brian Robinson U45 - His touch share is vanishing as he relinquishes work to Chris Rodriguez

Najee Harris U55 - Jags surprisingly stingy run D

Joshua Kelley U52 - Kelley always seems to lay a dud as the starter, & Bears are top 5 run D

Josh Jacobs U68 - Lions should be motivated at home to prove last week isn't their run defense

Darrell Henderson U51 - After a heavy touch game, I think we see more Royce Freeman this time around

PJ Walker O13 - Same as Dobbs last week, Seattle is very prone to QB scrambles

Zach Wilson O19 - Giants are a bottom 3 run D against QBs

Trevor Lawrence O23 - Steelers are terrible at defending the QB run, the weather doesn't look to be great, & TLaw has shown a motivation to take off

Geno Smith U13 - The Browns defense is way too fast to let Geno get loose

Desmond Ridder U19 - Same with the Titans defense; capitalize after a good rushing game from Ridder last week

 

RECEIVING

Saquon Barkley O25 - Jets are bottom 3 in RB receptions 

James Cook O25 - Tampa Bay is also bottom of the league in this stat

Rhamondre Stevenson O23 - The Dolphins defense is good, but they struggle with receiving backs

Travis Etienne U25 - The Steelers have been lights out against RB receptions & Etienne is coming off another good game in this category

Amari Cooper O65 - They should move Cooper around enough to avoid Spoon. WRs have been eating against this zone defense when they avoid Spoon. 

Christian Kirk O65 - Steelers secondary is bad, Kirk is the target

Zay Flowers O45 - Arizona's secondary might be worse & I don't want to be on Odell 

George Pickens O58 - Pickens maintained alpha status with Diontae's return last week

Jordan Addison U72 - Capitalize off a big hype game, he won't do the same to Jaire Alexander

DeAndre Hopkins U61 - AJ Terrell has been suffocating WR1s all year

Hayden Hurst O17 - Texans have the worst TE defense in the league 

Gerald Everett O28 - The Bears are bottom 5 here as well; since Mike Williams went out Everett's target share has been rising

Dalton Kincaid U52 - Capitalize off a big hype game, Tampa shuts down opposing TEs

Noah Fant U35 - The Browns will all but take him out of the game 

Evan Engram U52 - The Steelers secondary is awful, but they've been great against TEs

Dalton Schultz U55 - Same with Carolina

My one suggestion - if the lines aren't out, don't project over or unders - but just project the player's output.   The reason is simple - you end up biasing your own leans with over / under; if you set a projected number, then when the lines come out, you may in fact end up going in the opposite direction.

For example - Jordan Addison's number is now 57.5 at opening.   U72.5 it's easy to pass, but in fact you may want to consider going over if the discrepancy is that wide.    Likewise, when Dalton Kincaid opened up at 34.5, your U52 is a pretty clear pass, but in fact the value might be with the O34.5.   By committing to an over/under, you're eliminating potential spots with a preset notion.   Let the #'s you project guide you.

Now, I'm not going to take Addison yet because he was clearly hurt at the end of the game.    Never like to see it, and it was a foot injury, which clearly can affect his performance.   But it's more the principle - set the projected #, and then go off the Vegas line.   By setting if you're going over or under, while you may pass on a line that's way off, it's also human nature to resist going the other way.  But it's always about whether or not the # makes sense for the play.  In Kincaid's case, you thought about U52 as a clear play, but in fact, O34.5 represents great value if that's the U line you were thinking of.  But by going with the under, your default action is to pass.   That's where just setting a number works better IMO.  

Obviously, if you set Kirk at 60+ & Pickens at high 50's, both are opening at low 50's, so I get you'll want to smash those 2.    FWIW, I think both WR's on both teams are set to succeed with those numbers, and the boundary #'s CB's give up for PIT are why I'll go Ridley, but with Zay Jones out, Kirk has a lot positive equity as well.   IMO both Diontae & Pickens are likely to go over vs. the JAX secondary, but I'm waiting for the full card to come out before committing to that level yet.   Going 12+ deep with 8-9 alt lines gets pretty steep, so better to wait, and I've definitely regretted taking some early plays I was "only" 80-90 percent committed to (only to see 4-5 players I loved more come out later on).

Re: Everett - he's out.  Donald Parham's props if he plays are definitely worth considering, as he left the game at the same time as Everett, it's why he was stuck at 1-9, but I'd have him projected to take most of Everett's work, so 3-25+ or 4-35+ is a reasonable line (with high TD equity as well).    If Vegas lines him at high-teens, then I'll likely take with 1 alt line. 

Re: Flowers, he hasn't had a line open below mid 50's in about 3 weeks.  With the ARI secondary, it would be surprising if he's below 50.   That's going to be the issue - I have him at 6-70, so it's more the number they set that's going to decide if I go there.  

Re: Hall, he came out at 68.5.   It's unfortunate in that it makes the alt lines less attractive, but I have him at 17-85+, so I'll def take the main line.   Probably only 1 alt line, though, given the payout won't be as high.  I was hoping for low 60's, but Vegas is catching on.  

Edited October 26, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Two more Sunday player prop additions:

NEW ADDED THU AM Breece Hall O68.5 rush yds 2U, 100+ yds +280 1U DK - with Dexter Lawrence back, the G-men run D is better, so I don't have quite the same confidence as I did when Hall faced the DEN run D, but it's still a spot to leverage, especially as I believe the Jets will be leading, and so leaning on the run game makes a lot more sense.   Have to take the 100+ alt line given the game script.

NEW ADDED THU AM Nico Collins O51.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (but will take) - CAR has the lowest pressure rate in the NFL.   Collins averages almost 3.8 yards per route run when CJ Stroud isn't pressured.  CAR's secondary is struggling as a result of lack of pressure.   FWIW Tank Dell also averages over 3.2 yards per route run, so can't argue that play, but because I'm going alt lines, I'll go with the guy who's had a more consistent target share (and Dell coming off concussion, should be OK, but never can tell how the O will bring him back week 1 post-injury).   Will almost certainly go alt lines here.

There are still a ton of games with only a few player props (or none) out, and I've got at least 2-3 low totals / higher-leverage spots that may not get offered alt lines (I'll be very sad if that happens), and 3-4 top player props that haven't been posted near my projected totals this week.   And still no TD props, so a lot to add to Sunday but that's all for now

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

My one suggestion - if the lines aren't out, don't project over or unders - but just project the player's output.   The reason is simple - you end up biasing your own leans with over / under; if you set a projected number, then when the lines come out, you may in fact end up going in the opposite direction.

I see your point totally, but to be honest I don't consider myself in the business of projecting output. I'm far more accurate in project the books lines, & that gives me the insight to determine whether or not I'd play it. 

To your point, yes, this process does all but eliminate me from flipping my stance on a single prop. If I'm targeting Addison U72 and it opens at 57, that tells me Vegas & sharps alike were also not nearly as high coming off of Addison's latest outing as the public is. I expect his number to rise into the 60s. All of that said, I don't care if the number is 72 or 52. If my gut tells me a player underperforms/overperforms, I'm either targeting the line in that one direction or I won't play it at all. In the case of Addison & being 15 yards off on my projection, I just won't play that at all. There's too many good lines throughout the week to take a play my gut is against just for the sake of a number being "favorable". 

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Re: Everett - he's out.

Ah, good to know. Parham it is. 

[Broncofan]

OK some more player props are up, and some definite value opps (Nico Collins has skyrocketed from 51.5 to 56.5 today alone), so posting it, while I wait for a few more to consider, and the full TD slate to come up:

 

ATS/ML

EARLY

NEW ADDED THU PM - MIN pick 'em @ GB 2U - Minny's OL, their D and the QB's match up so well vs. GB.   I don't want the line to drop past a pick 'em for the value.

NEW ADDED THU PM - NYJ -3 @ NYG -  it's always scary to give points away when it's Zach Wilson & Nathaniel Hackett.   But the Jets run game, their fantastic D all say they should control this game.   

NEW ADDED THU PM - HOU -3 @ CAR -125 - HOU's O really gives CAR problems, and the HOU D's biggest problem (coverage) is really offset by CAR's lack of weapons.   I'll shave the extra 0.5 and pay the vig for push protection.

....

 

LATE

...

SNF/MNF

NEW ADDED THU PM - CHI/LAC O46.5 - the LAC D is just that bad, while the CHI D's strengths (run D and Jaylon Johnson in coverage) allow LAC to exploit other matchups.    

 

I'm leaning to taking the Bengals ML @ SF, but the key isn't Brock Purdy (who's already being treated as he's out as the line's moved 3 pts to SF -3.5), but IMO Trent Williams changes how that O operates even more.   So that's 5U in 4 plays so far, with CIN-SF pending.

 

UPDATED PLAYER PROPS

 

EARLY

Calvin Ridley O50.5 rec yds 2U DK, 70+ rec yds +200 1U, 100+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK- PIT allows 140+ yds per game to outside WR's.   Even if Zay Jones doesn't play, this is a bigger Ridley game than Christian Kirk game.

Kyle Pitts O32.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (but will take both) - TEN's run D is legit, and they just traded their all-world FS Keith Byard.  I would have taken this with Byard given Pitts' talent, so I'm definitely on a full alt line play with him out.

NEW ADDED THU - AM Breece Hall O68.5 rush yds 2U, 100+ yds +280 1U DK - with Dexter Lawrence back, the G-men run D is better, so I don't have quite the same confidence as I did when Hall faced the DEN run D, but it's still a spot to leverage, especially as I believe the Jets will be leading, and so leaning on the run game makes a lot more sense.   Have to take the 100+ alt line given the game script.

NEW ADDED THU AM - Nico Collins O51.5 rec yds 2U DK (now 55.5), 80+ rec yds +220, 100+ rec yds +450 0.5U DK - CAR has the lowest pressure rate in the NFL.   Collins averages almost 3.8 yards per route run when CJ Stroud isn't pressured.   FWIW Tank Dell also averages over 3.2 yards per route run, so can't argue that play, but because I'm going alt lines, I'll go with the guy who's had a more consistent target share.   Will almost certainly go alt lines here.

NEW ADDED THU PM - Terry Mclaurin O56.5 rec yds, 80+ rec yds +240 1U, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - Darius Slay is a great CB, but the one guy who's given him fits throughout is Mclaurin - 8/85 this year, and 100+ yards both games last year.   So I'm definitely going the full alt line route here.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Rhamondre Stevenson O16.5 rec yds 2U FD, 40+ rec yds +360 1U DK - the week 3 game in NE vs. MIA is the only reason I hesitated before, when Rhamondre went 3-10 on 3 targets.   But he's received 6 targets the last 2 weeks, and the matchup screams that they should be using him in the pass game just as much.   As much as he's frustrated fantasy managers, this is really the start of a nice stretch for him, so long as they use him in the pass game.

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Demarius Douglas O26.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +300 1U DK - he's now their #2 snap share and target, and he's getting open, to the tune of over 5 YPPR.   At 26.5 main line prop, it's easy to go 2U on the main line, and 50+ rec yds for +300.    Mac Jones is why I won't go past 50, though lol.

LATE

Isaiah Pacheco O15.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (EDIT FRI AM - none offered, would take at least 40+ rec yds) - nothing's changed from the TNF game 2 weeks ago with the DEN pass D - they're still super vulnerable to RB's.   As the Chiefs are using Pacheco even more regularly on 1st/2nd down with passes, this is easy to hit. 

Rashee Rice O43.5 rec yds 2U DK, 60+ rec yds +200 1U DK - DEN is still a zone heavy team with Vance Joseph as DC, and we know that means Rashee Rice should thrive.  The very obvious difference with the Chargers game when they went man in 2H is the only reason I may back off a 2nd alt line, as Rice's ceiling is predicated on being vs. zone  NEW SAT PM:   with the news on the potential 6-14 inches of snow and bitter cold, there are far better plays than this one.   Sadly I'll pull the plug on Rice props.  I'll take the -0.3U hit and factor it into my Week 8 tally.

 

NEW ADDED THU PM - George Kittle O40.5 rec yds 4U DK, 60+ rec yds 1U +240 & 80+ rec yds +600  0.5U DK & 100+ rec yds +1100 0.5U (6U total) - I shied away from taking the MNF line vs. MIN, but there are better reasons to dive in this Sunday.  First off, Trent Williams isn't ruled out yet and that's the main reason Kittle wouldn't see as many targets (if he had to stay back to block).  More importantly, CIN has a much harder time covering TE's since Jesse Bates left.   So a 60+ & 80+ alt line play seems definitely in order when they are released, provided the line stays static at 40-ish.  Given it's Sam Darnold, I think that's the main reason it will stay low.   If the early slate goes well I’ll consider 100+ at +1100 0.5U but that’s all for now.   EDIT FRI PM:  The news Purdy is playing and Deebo is out, that adds even more ceiling, so I'm happy to go 4U on main line and add the 100+ +1100 0.5U play.  I'm also going to use the 2nd free 0.4U bet credit on Kittle top Sunday receiver yardage-wise at +9000 as a YOLO play.

 

SNF/MNF

NEW ADDED THU PM - DJ Moore O57.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (will take 80+ rec yds & 100+ rec yds) -  this one's not complicated, LAC's pass coverage is abysmal.   I do think LAC puts up points, so CHI is going to have to throw to keep up - and that's DJ Moore.  

NEW ADDED SAT AM - Roschon Johnson O11.5 rec yds 2U, alt lines pending (not offered, will take 4U if no alt lines) DK - this is a crazy number.  CHI runs the highest screen pass rate, Bagent is a checkdown QB, and LAC is worst at defending screen passes.    I'd want 25 & 40+ yard alt lines, but if they don't offer any, I'll go with the Kincaid/Kittle route and go 4U main line. 

I definitely want Donald Parham rec yds if it's below 20.   So far that's 34-36U in 11 player props I'll likely be invested in, 28.5U with 9 guys on the daytime slot, plus DJ Moore's 3.5U play on SNF & Roschon Johnson's rec yd prop with at least 1 more play (Donald Parham) I'd take if it's offered on SNF.  I'll use my first 0.4U free bet on a 7-leg  Ridley O50.5 / Pitts O33.5 / Collins O51.5 / Mclaurin O56.5 / Pacheco O15.5 rec yds / Kittle O40.5 / DJ Moore O57.5 rec yds  YOLO 7-leg +7500 parley (which also allows a Moore hedge if I'm still alive lol) and the 2nd 0.4U free bet on Kittle being top yardage receiver for Sun at +9000. 

...

My full card is on page 362, I'll update that one to keep the full list if anyone is tailing.  BOL!

 

Edited October 28, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Some TNF plays.....

 

James Cook O18.5 Receiving (1.5u) - Cook has been ramping up as a receiver, high winds in the forecast (short passing), Tampa Bay shuts down TEs, Tampa Bay struggles against RBs out of the backfield, and they've given up a RB reception long of 13+ yards in 4 straight games. This really should hit easy. 

Rachaad White U43.5 Rushing (1u) - Name a better tandem than Rachaad White & betting the Under. Bills at home, I like this line. 

Chris Godwin O5.5 Receptions (0.75u @ +115) - Feels like great odds. Godwin has hit this Over in each of his last 3 games, a span in which he's averaged 10 targets per game. This should be a pass heavy script for Tampa. 

 

+ lots of Bills ML & Bills -1.5 on Teasers. 

[adamq]

Yeah 5.5 definitely feels low for Godwin, especially in a game they (should) be down early in

[Broncofan]

On 10/24/2023 at 10:55 AM, Broncofan said:

WEEK 8 TNF

ATS / ML 

Nothing yet

 

PLAYER PROPS

Dalton Kincaid o34.5 Rec yds 2U / 60+ Rec yds +320 / 80+ Rec yds  +700 0.5U FD - on surface this looks tougher because Tampa top 10 D yards allowed vs. TE.   But they’re also really vulnerable to slot - and that’s what Kincaid plays - in 6 games he’s had over 90+ slot snaps.   No Dawson Knox so this opens his target and snap share.  Worth the full alt line play IMO. 

Mike Evans O56.5 rec yds 2U / 80+ rec yds +240 / 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - there isn't much to say here, BUF's D is a lot more vulnerable with the loss of Matt Milano and Daquon Jones (interior push and pressure).   While that is why I've targeted the RB's, the TAM pass game is so Evans-heavy, I'm comfortable to go here, knowing Ridley went for 120+, Kirk for 6-78, Slayton for 4/69, and even NE's WR's went 6-63 (Bourne) & 4-54 (Douglas) on them.  

 

LONGSHOT TD's

Khalil Shakir +1100 / +12500 2+ 0.8U/0.2U Bodog (+950/+9000 DK) & Deonte Harty +750 / +1100 2+ (DK & Bodog) 0.4U/0.1U - the 2+ TD number on Shakir on DK tells me the books are dropping this number down quickly.   TAM's secondary is clearly worst at the slot, with Davis/Dean at the boundaries and 2 untested DB's sharing work (Izien & Hayes).  When you add in that Dawson Knox is out, then it contracts the targets further.   Shakir's the bigger body and his slot work has been increasing, but Harty is still very shifty and offers the threat to score from outside the 20's, and the occasional RZ snap.  Harty's been in the +400 or +500 range before, so this is pretty decent value esp with Knox RZ shares becoming available.   So this is worth splitting the stake on both guys, but giving Shakir the full play, and Harty the half-stake play.

Reggie Gilliam +2200 / +25000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U DK - so the Bills are going to missing ALL of their TE's except Kincaid.  Gilliam (along with T David Edwards) have played TE in college, so I'm guessing they'll be there in-line in 12 formation.   So I'm banking on a FB / TE2 decoy play.   If it wasn't +2200, I wouldn't bother, but it's just too tempting to pass up lol.

I don't have a great feel for the spread, or O/U, so that's pretty much it.  So that's 11U (as I took the Kincaid 2U play on FD & already had DK), more than enough.   Hoping for a big Kincaid (and Evans) day; BOL!

Well going with Kincaid for 4U on the main line, and the 1st alt line hitting for +320, means it's a +6.7U profit for Kincaid alone.  Which is ideal given Evans missed on all lines - that 41-yard catch being called back was a killer, but that's the game.   And while Shakir had a great game, no TD's (1 great chance early, but couldn't make the guy miss at the 8-yard line).   Harty had a few RZ snaps too, Gilliam was a pipe dream.  But it's still -2U for TD's.  

I won't complain when only 1 prop hits, no TD's, and you still get a +1.2U profit - but it's not for the faint of heart go 4U on the main line instead of 2U.    Thank you Dalton Kincaid!

 

WEEK 8 TNF 

ATS/ML: 11-18-1, -5U 

PLAYER PROPS: 55-52, +40.9U (WK 8 TNF - 1-1, +3.2U)

LONGSHOT TD: 9-99, -19.4U (WK 8 TNF, 0-3, -2U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4:  N-Gray +700)

TOTAL - +16.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; WK 8 TNF; +1.2U; 437U stake so far)

Edited October 27, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK, DK has yet to release all the TD props for all games, and FD is also lacking, but about half the games are out (HOU-CAR & NO-IND are notable for having both books still not releasing yet, which has targets I'm looking at), but there's 1 final player prop (while I wait for SNF supporting cast player props),  7 TD plays I have for the day slate, and 1 SNF one I'm going to wait on, but already has value with Bodog:

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Rhamondre Stevenson O16.5 rec yds 2U FD, 40+ rec yds +360 1U DK - the week 3 game in NE vs. MIA is the only reason I hesitated before, when Rhamondre went 3-10 on 3 targets.   But he's received 6 targets the last 2 weeks, and the matchup screams that they should be using him in the pass game just as much.   As much as he's frustrated fantasy managers, this is really the start of a nice stretch for him, so long as they use him in the pass game.

...

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Dynami Brown +1700 / +20000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U & Cole Turner +1800 / +20000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U each DK - for Turner, it's more about FOMO, but with Brown, he's still getting chances, witness below.  With the Eagles still being vulnerable in the pass game, these odds are too good to pass up (plus Curtis Samuel is a little dinged up, and Jahan Dotson might be in the doghouse after that critical drop):

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Demario Douglas +700 / +10000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U Bodog - he's literally no higher than +450 everywhere else, and for good reason.  He's their most dangerous weapon, and now he's their #2 guy in targets and snap share.   Have to take a shot in a game where NE is likely having to catch up, and maybe garbage time brings more opps.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Calvin Austin III +850 / +14000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U DK - Diontae Johnson was a new DNP, and may be out.   DK doesn't think so, while the other books have dropped Austin to +500 range.    When Diontae was out, Austin was back in the rotation, and he's the clear #2 threat WR-wise (sorry A-Rob) behind Pickens.    If Diontae plays, then this line is more in line but it's worth a half-stake play to get in if Diontae isn't playing.   JAX's a true pass funnel D, so have to take the shot here. 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Drew Ogletree +900 / +12500 2+ TheScore 0.4U / 0.1U - sorry if you guys can't get this one, it's about +500 everywhere else, and that's about right, so I may be flying solo on this one.  Canuck bettors, there's definite value here, as Kylen Granson hasn't practiced yet, and if he doesn't practice by tomorrow, then he's out as per concussion protocol for another week, and that leaves Ogeltree as the top TE.   NO has given up 2 TD's this year to TE's, so this is better odds than in prior years. 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Noah Brown +500 / +8000 2+ Bodog (+500/+7500 2+ FD) 0.8U / 0.2U - Robert Woods is out, so that puts Brown as the #2 big target in the RZ vs. CAR.  John Metchie is a great story, but Brown still gets more snaps, targets & RZ looks.   Yet Metchie is the one at +300 most books while Brown is here. 

...

LATE

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Zach Charbonnet +450 / +6000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U Bodog - Bodog hasn't caught on that Kenneth Walker has missed the last 2 practices, and Charbonnet has been upgraded to full practices.   He's literally +250 or lower everywhere else.   I get that CLE is a tough D, but they can give up the scores, so I have to take the shot with a real chance this is the starting SEA RB this week. 

SNF/MNF

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Derius Davis +1000 / +125000 2+ Bodog (waiting on FD/DK) 0.4U / 0.1U - with CHI's D, they're vulnerable to the big play - and that's now Davis.   I'm totally willing to play this if it's the best line, but I'm holding out to see if DK/FD will put out an even better line, given his snap count and target rate aren't high.   Sadly, with Gerald Everett's injury, Donald Parham isn't playable at +200 so far (UGH). 

I've got a couple of players I'm looking hard at who I think will get a lot of looks, but the books aren't out except 1, and I think I'll find better value (HINT:  HOU-CAR game, and NO-IND).

That's all for now, there are a LOT of games without props, so I'll add to this and update as they come along.  I've got 5U in 4 ATS/ML plays (with CIN-SF pending injury reports on Trent Williams), 32U in 10 player props (although it's really 29.5U on Sunday's day slate and likely 3.5U on SNF, with 2 more SNF plays likely coming, and 6U for longshot TD's with 8 players, so that's probably enough for the Sunday daytime slate unless some crazy values show up with the missing plays (Pickens vs. JAX, I'm looking at you). 

The full card's updated on Page 362, link below.   BOL!

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 10/26/2023 at 2:24 AM, SaveOurSonics said:

Are the Bengals +3.5 the too-good-to-be-true line of the week? With suspicions that the 49ers will be without Purdy, Deebo, & potentially Trent Williams & Dre Greenlaw, I'd contend that the Bengals should be favorites. That said, I've fallen for these traps before (Lions @BAL and 49ers @CLE). Both times, the hotter road team loses. 

 

I went ahead and put a unit on their +3.5. I've also placed them in a Teaser @ +10.5. I suspect the line will move closer to 49ers -1.5 when Purdy is declared out (as I suspect he will be), if not moving to the Bengals favor, at which point I plan on Teasing the 49ers as well. I see this being a dogfight of a game regardless of who's under center for SF. 

FWIW although no skill position player has returned from concussion protocol in less than 6 days this year (what Purdy needs to do to play on Sunday) - Purdy might be the first, because he's already practicing (you need to practice and then be symptom free day after - it depends on whether he did a full activity practice or not whether Thu qualifies, but obv he could practice fully today and then seek clearance on Sat).   

The SF spread opened at -6 when there was no Purdy news.   The SF -3.5 reflects a strong belief he wasn't going to play - that line is likely going back up if Purdy clears protocol.  We'll know if he practices today, and clears protocol on Sat by 4 PM ET, if he's active.  It's probably worth waiting if you're on CIN as the CIN line could easily go up to +6 again.   For me, it's not Purdy that's as important as Trent Williams - if Williams and Deebo are out again, this makes it far easier for CIN to limit the SF O.     It's definitely a spot I'm interested in, but Purdy's sudden potential availability means CIN backers can wait to see if they can get a much better line, the current line assumes Purdy's out. 

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK, DK has yet to release all the TD props for all games, and FD is also lacking, but about half the games are out (HOU-CAR & NO-IND are notable for having both books still not releasing yet, which has targets I'm looking at), but there's 1 final player prop (while I wait for SNF supporting cast player props),  7 TD plays I have for the day slate, and 1 SNF one I'm going to wait on, but already has value with Bodog:

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Rhamondre Stevenson O16.5 rec yds 2U FD, 40+ rec yds +360 1U DK - the week 3 game in NE vs. MIA is the only reason I hesitated before, when Rhamondre went 3-10 on 3 targets.   But he's received 6 targets the last 2 weeks, and the matchup screams that they should be using him in the pass game just as much.   As much as he's frustrated fantasy managers, this is really the start of a nice stretch for him, so long as they use him in the pass game.

...

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Dynami Brown +1700 / +20000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U & Cole Turner +1800 / +20000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U each DK - for Turner, it's more about FOMO, but with Brown, he's still getting chances, witness below.  With the Eagles still being vulnerable in the pass game, these odds are too good to pass up (plus Curtis Samuel is a little dinged up, and Jahan Dotson might be in the doghouse after that critical drop):

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Demario Douglas +700 / +10000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U Bodog - he's literally no higher than +450 everywhere else, and for good reason.  He's their most dangerous weapon, and now he's their #2 guy in targets and snap share.   Have to take a shot in a game where NE is likely having to catch up, and maybe garbage time brings more opps.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Calvin Austin III +850 / +14000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U DK - Diontae Johnson was a new DNP, and may be out.   DK doesn't think so, while the other books have dropped Austin to +500 range.    When Diontae was out, Austin was back in the rotation, and he's the clear #2 threat WR-wise (sorry A-Rob) behind Pickens.    If Diontae plays, then this line is more in line but it's worth a half-stake play to get in if Diontae isn't playing.   JAX's a true pass funnel D, so have to take the shot here. 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Drew Ogletree +900 / +12500 2+ TheScore 0.4U / 0.1U - sorry if you guys can't get this one, it's about +500 everywhere else, and that's about right, so I may be flying solo on this one.  Canuck bettors, there's definite value here, as Kylen Granson hasn't practiced yet, and if he doesn't practice by tomorrow, then he's out as per concussion protocol for another week, and that leaves Ogeltree as the top TE.   NO has given up 2 TD's this year to TE's, so this is better odds than in prior years. 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Noah Brown +500 / +8000 2+ Bodog (+500/+7500 2+ FD) 0.8U / 0.2U - Robert Woods is out, so that puts Brown as the #2 big target in the RZ vs. CAR.  John Metchie is a great story, but Brown still gets more snaps, targets & RZ looks.   Yet Metchie is the one at +300 most books while Brown is here. 

...

LATE

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Zach Charbonnet +450 / +6000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U Bodog - Bodog hasn't caught on that Kenneth Walker has missed the last 2 practices, and Charbonnet has been upgraded to full practices.   He's literally +250 or lower everywhere else.   I get that CLE is a tough D, but they can give up the scores, so I have to take the shot with a real chance this is the starting SEA RB this week. 

SNF/MNF

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Derius Davis +1000 / +125000 2+ Bodog (waiting on FD/DK) 0.4U / 0.1U - with CHI's D, they're vulnerable to the big play - and that's now Davis.   I'm totally willing to play this if it's the best line, but I'm holding out to see if DK/FD will put out an even better line, given his snap count and target rate aren't high.   Sadly, with Gerald Everett's injury, Donald Parham isn't playable at +200 so far (UGH). 

I've got a couple of players I'm looking hard at who I think will get a lot of looks, but the books aren't out except 1, and I think I'll find better value (HINT:  HOU-CAR game, and NO-IND).

That's all for now, there are a LOT of games without props, so I'll add to this and update as they come along.  I've got 5U in 4 ATS/ML plays (with CIN-SF pending injury reports on Trent Williams), 32U in 10 player props (although it's really 29.5U on Sunday's day slate and likely 3.5U on SNF, with 2 more SNF plays likely coming, and 6U for longshot TD's with 8 players, so that's probably enough for the Sunday daytime slate unless some crazy values show up with the missing plays (Pickens vs. JAX, I'm looking at you). 

The full card's updated on Page 362, link below.   BOL!

 

Waiting for alternate books pays off - Donald Parham opens at FD for +400 ATTD and +4500 2+ TD's, I took 1.2U/0.3U right away with no Gerald Everett and maybe no Josh Palmer there.   It's already +380 & +4200, I don't think you'll find better, I've seen him as low as +180 to +200 at other books.

I also got Juwan Johnson +500 / +5000 2+ at Sports Interaction, so I'll add 0.8U/0.2U there.   I see him at +400/+4000 2+ on DK, that's more of a half-unit play (right on the value line between half & full-unit play).  With the Saints RZ O struggling mightily and under the microscope, I have to believe they'll look his way at least 1-2x if they're in the RZ. 

Finally, Brandon Johnson is a true GTD and missed practice - so while he's literally JAG, Lil' Jordan Humphrey at +1800 / +15000 2+ Bodog, well have to take this 0.4U/0.1U stab.

I'm also noticing that some MNF lines have opened up - so I'm taking Jakobi Meyers O60.5 rec yds 2U / 80+ rec yds +220 1U / 100+ rec yds +450 0.5U DK right now - this line is only going up with the DET secondary and JimmyG back.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

FWIW although no skill position player has returned from concussion protocol in less than 6 days this year (what Purdy needs to do to play on Sunday) - Purdy might be the first, because he's already practicing (you need to practice and then be symptom free day after - it depends on whether he did a full activity practice or not whether Thu qualifies, but obv he could practice fully today and then seek clearance on Sat).   

The SF spread opened at -6 when there was no Purdy news.   The SF -3.5 reflects a strong belief he wasn't going to play - that line is likely going back up if Purdy clears protocol.  We'll know if he practices today, and clears protocol on Sat by 4 PM ET, if he's active.  It's probably worth waiting if you're on CIN as the CIN line could easily go up to +6 again.   For me, it's not Purdy that's as important as Trent Williams - if Williams and Deebo are out again, this makes it far easier for CIN to limit the SF O.     It's definitely a spot I'm interested in, but Purdy's sudden potential availability means CIN backers can wait to see if they can get a much better line, the current line assumes Purdy's out. 

 

Right on cue:

-Purdy looks like he's going to clear protocol 

-Both Trent Williams & Deebo Samuel are not playing.

 

 

I imagine we'll see CIN go back to +5 to +6 range.   I'll definitely take the play there.   More importantly, I'm going to double my Kittle O40.5 rec yds now to 4U, keep the 60/80 alt lines (60+ 1U +240 & 80+ +700 0.5U), but add the 100+ yard alt line +1100 for 0.5U.  I'm also going to use the 2nd 0.4U free play I get on Kittle most receiving yards for Sun games at +9000.   The last is a  YOLO play, but the 6U explanded play is about leveraging value & opportunity, and the books' low total was based partly on no Purdy, and we know Kittle's targets go up when either Deebo or Aiyuk don't play.  Please please please don't get hurt Kittle!  BOL everyone who's tailing (not for the faint of heart lol).

Edited October 27, 2023 by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

I know 

I know

I KNOW 

i shouldnt bet against Mike Tomlin as a home dog but I just dont think Pittsburgh is that good and we have long rest. Between Jacksonville, Atlanta and Houston 1 of those road favorites is going to lose

[Broncofan]

On 10/25/2023 at 6:03 PM, Broncofan said:

OK so there are a few player props out, so there are about 3-4 that I do want to get in now on release, as I do think the lines are going to go way up:

 

WEEK 8 SUNDAY SLATE 

ATS/ML

EARLY

NEW ADDED THU PM - MIN pick 'em @ GB 2U - Minny's OL, their D and the QB's match up so well vs. GB.   I don't want the line to drop past a pick 'em for the value.

NEW ADDED THU PM - NYJ -3 @ NYG -  it's always scary to give points away when it's Zach Wilson & Nathaniel Hackett.   But the Jets run game, their fantastic D all say they should control this game.   

NEW ADDED THU PM - HOU -3 @ CAR -125 - HOU's O really gives CAR problems, and the HOU D's biggest problem (coverage) is really offset by CAR's lack of weapons.   I'll shave the extra 0.5 and pay the vig for push protection.

....

 

LATE

...

SNF/MNF

NEW ADDED THU PM - CHI/LAC O46.5 - the LAC D is just that bad, while the CHI D's strengths (run D and Jaylon Johnson in coverage) allow LAC to exploit other matchups.    

 

I'm leaning to taking the Bengals ML @ SF, but the key isn't Brock Purdy (who's already being treated as he's out as the line's moved 3 pts to SF -3.5), but IMO Trent Williams changes how that O operates even more.   So that's 5U in 4 plays so far, with CIN-SF pending.

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Calvin Ridley O50.5 rec yds 2U DK, 70+ rec yds +200 1U, 100+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK - PIT allows 140+ yds per game to outside WR's.   Even if Zay Jones doesn't play, this is a bigger Ridley game than Christian Kirk game.

Kyle Pitts O32.5 rec yds 2U DK, 60+ Rec yds +320 1U, 80+ Rec yds +700 0.5U DK - TEN's run D is legit, and they just traded their all-world FS Keith Byard.  I would have taken this with Byard given Pitts' talent, so I'm definitely on a full alt line play with him out.

NEW ADDED THU - AM Breece Hall O68.5 rush yds 2U, 100+ yds +280 1U DK - with Dexter Lawrence back, the G-men run D is better, so I don't have quite the same confidence as I did when Hall faced the DEN run D, but it's still a spot to leverage, especially as I believe the Jets will be leading, and so leaning on the run game makes a lot more sense.   Have to take the 100+ alt line given the game script.

NEW ADDED THU AM - Nico Collins O51.5 rec yds 2U DK (now O57.5 FRI AM lol), 80+ rec yds +220, 100+ rec yds +450 0.5U DK - CAR has the lowest pressure rate in the NFL.   Collins averages almost 3.8 yards per route run when CJ Stroud isn't pressured.   FWIW Tank Dell also averages over 3.2 yards per route run, so can't argue that play, but because I'm going alt lines, I'll go with the guy who's had a more consistent target share.   Will almost certainly go alt lines here.  EDIT: FRI AM - holy prop CLV, up to 57.5...alt lines are less value, but still worth the play.  

NEW ADDED THU PM - Terry Mclaurin O56.5 rec yds, 80+ rec yds +240 1U, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - Darius Slay is a great CB, but the one guy who's given him fits throughout is Mclaurin - 8/85 this year, and 100+ yards both games last year.   So I'm definitely going the full alt line route here.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Rhamondre Stevenson O16.5 rec yds 2U FD, 40+ rec yds +360 1U DK - the week 3 game in NE vs. MIA is the only reason I hesitated before, when Rhamondre went 3-10 on 3 targets.   But he's received 6 targets the last 2 weeks, and the matchup screams that they should be using him in the pass game just as much.   As much as he's frustrated fantasy managers, this is really the start of a nice stretch for him, so long as they use him in the pass game.

...

LATE

Isaiah Pacheco O15.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (UPDATE FRI AM - none offered so far, would take at least 1) - nothing's changed from the TNF game 2 weeks ago with the DEN pass D - they're still super vulnerable to RB's.   As the Chiefs are using Pacheco even more regularly on 1st/2nd down with passes, this is easy to hit. 

Rashee Rice O43.5 rec yds 2U DK, 60+ rec yds +200 1U DK - DEN is still a zone heavy team with Vance Joseph as DC, and we know that means Rashee Rice should thrive.  The very obvious difference with the Chargers game when they went man in 2H is the only reason I may back off a 2nd alt line, as Rice's ceiling is predicated on being vs. zone.  

NEW ADDED THU PM - George Kittle O40.5 rec yds 4U DK, 60+ rec yds 1U +240 & 80+ rec yds +600  0.5U DK & 100+ rec yds +1100 0.5U (6U total) - I shied away from taking the MNF line vs. MIN, but there are better reasons to dive in this Sunday.  First off, Trent Williams isn't ruled out yet and that's the main reason Kittle wouldn't see as many targets (if he had to stay back to block).  More importantly, CIN has a much harder time covering TE's since Jesse Bates left.   So a 60+ & 80+ alt line play seems definitely in order when they are released, provided the line stays static at 40-ish.  Given it's Sam Darnold, I think that's the main reason it will stay low.   If the early slate goes well I’ll consider 100+ at +1100 0.5U but that’s all for now.   EDIT FRI PM:  The news Purdy is playing and Deebo is out, that adds even more ceiling, so I'm happy to go 4U on main line and add the 100+ +1100 0.5U play.  I'm also going to use the 2nd free 0.4U bet credit on Kittle top Sunday receiver yardage-wise at +9000 as a YOLO play.

. 

 

SNF/MNF

NEW ADDED THU PM - DJ Moore O57.5 rec yds 2U DK, 80 Rec yds +220 1U, 100+ Rec yds +450 0.5U DK  -  this one's not complicated, LAC's pass coverage is abysmal.   I do think LAC puts up points, so CHI is going to have to throw to keep up - and that's DJ Moore.  

NEW ADDED SAT AM - Roschon Johnson O11.5 rec yds 2U, alt lines pending (not offered, will take 4U if no alt lines) DK - this is a crazy number.  CHI runs the highest screen pass rate, Bagent is a checkdown QB, and LAC is worst at defending screen passes.    I'd want 25 & 40+ yard alt lines, but if they don't offer any, I'll go with the Kincaid/Kittle route and go 4U main line. 

I definitely want 2 more SNF plays (Donald Parham rec yds if it's below 20 and Roschon Johnson rec yds, assuming he's active).   And I have 2 players where I need to see the rest of the injury reports before i decide to dive in again.  

So far that's 36-38U in 11 player props I'll likely be invested in, 31U with 9 guys on the daytime slot, plus Moore's 3.5U play on SNF & Roschon Johnson's rec yd prop with at least 1 more play I'd take if it's offered on SNF.  I'll use my first 0.4U free bet on a 7-leg  Ridley O50.5 / Pitts O33.5 / Collins O51.5 / Mclaurin O56.5 / Pacheco O15.5 rec yds / Kittle O40.5 / DJ Moore O57.5 rec yds  YOLO 7-leg +7500 parley (which also allows a Moore hedge if I'm still alive lol), and the 2nd free 0.4U play on Kittle being top Sun yardage receiver at +9000. 

....

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Dynami Brown +1700 / +20000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U & Cole Turner +1800 / +20000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U each DK - for Turner, it's more about FOMO, but with Brown, he's still getting chances, witness below.  With the Eagles still being vulnerable in the pass game, these odds are too good to pass up (plus Curtis Samuel is a little dinged up, and Jahan Dotson might be in the doghouse after that critical drop):

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Demario Douglas +700 / +10000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U Bodog - he's literally no higher than +450 everywhere else, and for good reason.  He's their most dangerous weapon, and now he's their #2 guy in targets and snap share.   Have to take a shot in a game where NE is likely having to catch up, and maybe garbage time brings more opps.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Calvin Austin III +850 / +14000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U DK - Diontae Johnson was a new DNP, and may be out.   DK doesn't think so, while the other books have dropped Austin to +500 range.    When Diontae was out, Austin was back in the rotation, and he's the clear #2 threat WR-wise (sorry A-Rob) behind Pickens.    If Diontae plays, then this line is more in line but it's worth a half-stake play to get in if Diontae isn't playing.   JAX's a true pass funnel D, so have to take the shot here. 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Drew Ogletree +900 / +12500 2+ TheScore 0.4U / 0.1U - sorry if you guys can't get this one, it's about +500 everywhere else, and that's about right, so I may be flying solo on this one.  Canuck bettors, there's definite value here, as Kylen Granson hasn't practiced yet, and if he doesn't practice by tomorrow, then he's out as per concussion protocol for another week, and that leaves Ogeltree as the top TE.   NO has given up 2 TD's this year to TE's, so this is better odds than in prior years. 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Noah Brown +500 / +8000 2+ Bodog (+500/+7500 2+ FD) 0.8U / 0.2U - Robert Woods is out, so that puts Brown as the #2 big target in the RZ vs. CAR.  John Metchie is a great story, but Brown still gets more snaps, targets & RZ looks.   Yet Metchie is the one at +300 most books while Brown is here. 

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Juwan Johnson +500 / +5000 2+ SportsInteraction (+400/+4000 on DK) 0.8U / 0.2U  - as long as it's +400 and it's a good matchup, I've gotta go here.  At +500/+5000, it's the full unit play, at +400 it's right at the half-unit vs. full-unit value IMO.    Either way, gotta go here, esp with the Saints struggles in the RZ, if he's active, I imagine they'll be looking his way 1-2x in the RZ. 

...

LATE

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Zach Charbonnet +450 / +6000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U Bodog - Bodog hasn't caught on that Kenneth Walker has missed the last 2 practices, and Charbonnet has been upgraded to full practices.   He's literally +250 or lower everywhere else.   I get that CLE is a tough D, but they can give up the scores, so I have to take the shot with a real chance this is the starting SEA RB this week. 

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Lil' Jordan Humphrey +1800 / +15000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog - Brandon Johnson is a true GDT, which should mean more Marvin Mims -  but in the RZ, means Lil' Jordan gets more snaps.  He's truly JAG, but at that number, have to take a half-stake stab.

SNF/MNF

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Derius Davis +1000 / +125000 2+ Bodog (waiting on FD/DK) 0.4U / 0.1U - with CHI's D, they're vulnerable to the big play - and that's now Davis.   I'm totally willing to play this if it's the best line, but I'm holding out to see if DK/FD will put out an even better line, given his snap count and target rate aren't high.   Sadly, with Gerald Everett's injury, Donald Parham isn't playable at +200 so far (UGH). 

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Donald Parham +400 / +4500 2+ (now +380 / +4200 almost right away) 1.2U/0.3U FD - with Gerald Everett out, and Josh Palmer iffy, this is a massive Parham script (with Keenan Allen and Ekeler).   He's literally +180 to +200 in the other books, so I have to take the enhanced play here. 

That's all for now, there are a LOT of games without props, so I'll add to this and update as they come along.  I've got 5U in 4 ATS/ML plays (with CIN-SF pending injury reports on Trent Williams), 36-38U in 11 player props (although it's really 31U on Sunday's day slate and DJ Moore 3.5U & Roschon Johnson 2-4U on SNF, with 1 more SNF play likely coming, and 9U for longshot TD's with 11 players (with 7U on the day slate, and 2U more on SNF), so that's probably enough for the Sunday daytime slate at 40U total (gulp).

BOL!

 

WEEK 8 TNF 

ATS/ML: 11-18-1, -5U 

PLAYER PROPS: 55-52, +40.9U (WK 8 TNF - 1-1, +3.2U)

LONGSHOT TD: 9-99, -19.4U (WK 8 TNF, 0-3, -2U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4:  N-Gray +700)

TOTAL - +16.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; WK 8 TNF; +1.2U; 437U stake so far)

The flip side to getting in early to get ahead of line movement - every once in a while, the news flips - Diontae Johnson is playing, so that puts Calvin Austin as about right odds-wise, and Kenneth Walker is off the injury report, which obv puts a wet towel on Zach Charbonnet's TD chances.  I'd still be OK with the half-unit play on Austin, but I'd likely have passed on Charbonnet, even at +500.   Oh well, that's the risk taken with getting ahead on lines.    The way TD luck has gone, Charb's going for 2 scores and everyone else whiffs (but if it's 2, hey I'd take it).  😁

As far as other movement's gone:

-MIN remains a pick 'em, HOU still at -3.5, NYJ still at -3 (the latter news is surprising, given Andrew Thomas is doubtful).   CIN has moved to +5, and that's before Brock Purdy news on his return comes in at 4 PM ET (or before).   If Purdy's active, I'd guess the line ends at +6 or better.

-Prop-wise, Breece Hall is at 70.5 (took at 68.5), Nico Collins is at 59.5 (from 51.5 - WOW lol), Rhamondre Stevenson is at 18.5 (16.5), Kyle Pitts is at 33.5 (32.5) and George Kittle is at 42.5 (40.5).  I expect Kittle's to rise if Purdy's confirmed as back. 

-Calvin Ridley went down from 50.5 to 49.5, and DJ Moore went from 58.5 to 56.5 (the latter does really surprise me, Ridley's negative perception and PIT blitz-heavy scheme I can see how the bets go to the under initially).   Rashee Rice went from 43.5 to 42.5. 

 

 

Edited October 28, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

 

So Purdy's cleared - and CIN has jumped to 5.5 on some books, but I got CIN +6 quickly about 10 mins ago, then it's dropped back to 5.5...for now..   I'd be surprised if it got to 6.5, given how big of a threshold that is.   If news that Trent Williams is out comes in I'll definitely think about a 2nd unit on the CIN ML tomorrow.

Well, I don't have a problem with the short pass game with the RB's, so I'll still keep Isaiah Pacheco O15.5 rec yds at 2U, but I'm going to cash out Rashee Rice O43.5 & 60+ yards.   Just too much variance to commit the 3U.  I'll factor in the -0.3U vig DK takes into my Week 8 player prop totals.

 

I will add another play I had targeted - Demarius Douglas O26.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +300 1U DK -  Mac Jones being the QB & Juju Smith-Schuster's return is the only reason I'm not hammering this harder.  But in a game NE is likely trailing, I can chase these low totals and +300 50+ alt line.

 

Full card adjusted on Page 362, that's pretty much it until late game news comes out (Trent Williams for SF-CIN and CIN ML).   With 6U on ATS/ML, 31U on 9 player props for the day slate, and 7U in TD plays (NGL, I regret the Charbonnet & Austin plays - which means they're most likely to hit lol) that's definitely enough again.   Let's keep the TNF positive vibes going into Sunday week 8!

 

 

 

Edited October 28, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

 

With this news you know where I’m going against the IND pass funnel D - Rasheed Shaheed.  
 

DK / Bodog took main lines down.  But didn’t take down DK alt lines & FD still up.   So  Rasheed Shaheed o32.5 Rec yds 2U FD & 50+ Rec yds +220 1U DK & 70+ Rec yds +500 0.5U DK added as yolo play lol.