Weekly Bets Thread

[adamq]

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by adamq

[Broncofan]

With the injury news finally out, and HOU / CIN missing some key guys, and now SNF/MNF out, a few more plays, still undecided on adding any more props:

PLAYER PROPS

SUNDAY

Demario Douglas - if he was only going to be a pure slot guy, then it's a stay-away.  But last week, they had him line up 70+ percent on the outside - which is a big sign for his future growth, and how NE sees him long-term.     For this week, that makes him worth considering with his rec yd prop in the 40's.    He was placed on the injury report, and given the IND slot D is very good, this is one where ppl probably can wait to see how the injury news play out

Jahan Dotson - one one hand he's really surged up to the usage we thought he'd get from the start of the season.  On the flip side - it coincided with Curtis Samuel leaving the game relatively early 2 weeks ago, and then missing last week altogether.   I think Samuel's dealing with turf toe, so he can wear a plate and still play, but it's truly 50-50 on the team also sitting him.  This is one where there's far more confidence knowing Samuel is out (Dotson is IMO 10x the player Samuel is,  but it's about the roles they play when Samuel is there, and when he's not).   

Rather than make a call now, I'd rather you know where I'm looking, and you can also act on the weekend & SUN AM info and decide for yourselves. 

MNF

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Javonte Williams O54.5 rush yds 2U, 80+ rush yds +260 1U DK - this one is simple, DEN's commitment to the run has had Javonte over 80+ yards the last 2 games.   So this is an easy alt line play to 80, even on the road, esp with BUF's run D issues since Matt Milano & Daquon Jones went on IR.

NEW ADDED FRI AM -  Dalton Kincaid O51.5 rec yds 2U (now 52.5), 80+ rec yds +300 1U DK (B365 / US FD players take the 6-7-8 ladder) - as good as DEN's D has played of late, they're still vulnerable to TE's, and until Dawson Knox returns, we know Kincaid is Josh Allen's new security blanket.   I'd go 8+ catches ladder wise, and 6+ is +110, so if you have B365/US FD, you know what to do (sadly I have to sit this one again).

LONGSHOT TD

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Andre Iosivas +650 FD / ??? 2+ TD 0.8U / 0.2U pending - yes, Trenton Irwin's going to get promoted to the top 3 rotation, but it's Iosivas they add in at the RZ, so I have to give it a shot here.  He's already scored 2x this season, this is a prime spot.  

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Tanner Hudson +1000 DK / +14000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - Irv Smith got all the attention, but it flew under the radar that Hudson was out there as much as Smith, and had 1 more target.   Smith's odds are really juiced at +200, so I'll take the half-stake play esp with a HOU D that's given up 4 TD's to TE's

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Xavier Hutchinson +1100 DK / +13000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - he's their WR4 along with John Metchie III, but with both the backup TE and FB out along with Nico Collins, that leaves Hutchinson as the other big body with Noah Brown & Dalton Schultz (and he's far more athletic and a mismatch in tight spaces than Schultz).  It's also clear OC Kevin Slowik is trying to manufacture touches for him, so the extra work, his athleticism and the lack of competition has me sold at least for the half-stake play.

SNF

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Tyler Conklin +500 / +6500 0.8U / 0.2U FD - t'sNothing to add from last week, just let's get better fortune on the EZ designed 1st look  / don't get stopped at the 1 lol. 

 

That's enough for now at 47U for the Sunday day card (LOL & gulp at the same time).   Full card updated on page 368 - BOL!

 

 

Edited November 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

 

Michael Thomas is not going to face any NFL discipline yet.  But depending on how bad this is, he could be an inactive on SUN.   And you know what happens then - Rashid Shaheed top 2 WR, smash spot.   I can't be sure, but I was on fence b4 anyways, so I just took Rashid Shaheed o32.5 Rec yds & 50+ Rec yds +220 1U / 80+ Rec yds +900 0.5U DK alt lines lol.  Plus used my 2nd 0.4U bet credit on Shaheed top Sun yardage receiver +13000

Also added Shaheed TD +400 / +5000 2+ Bodog (also +350 / +4000 2+ DK) 0.8U / 0.2U - if you agree get there quick I can’t imagine it’s staying up for long.  

Edited November 11, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

17 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

Michael Thomas is not going to face any NFL discipline yet.  But depending on how bad this is, he could be an inactive on SUN.   And you know what happens then - Rashid Shaheed top 2 WR, smash spot.   I can't be sure, but I was on fence b4 anyways, so I just took Rashid Shaheed o32.5 Rec yds & 50+ Rec yds +220 1U / 80+ Rec yds +900 0.5U DK alt lines lol.  Plus used my 2nd 0.4U bet credit on Shaheed top Sun yardage receiver +13000

Also added Shaheed TD +400 / +5000 2+ Bodog (also +350 / +4000 2+ DK) 0.8U / 0.2U - if you agree get there quick I can’t imagine it’s staying up for long.  

Well unsurprisingly the books have taken all the NO receiving yardage props off the market.    But they haven't adjusted TD markets, nor did has DK/FD adjusted the Sun leader, so I'm fully invested in Shaheed at O32.5 / 50+ / 80+ rec yds, +400 / +5000 2+ TD 0.8U / 0.2U & top Sunday yardage receiver at 130-1 0.4U free bet credit.   PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE don't get hurt, and NO target him like he deserves (really, an inactive MT really would send a strong message for the team, coaches/GM...lol).

[thebestever6]

Listen, I know Tommy devito sucks but +600 for an NFL qb to throw for 2 tds odds are you got garbage time. How bad does he suck?

[adamq]

24 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Listen, I know Tommy devito sucks but +600 for an NFL qb to throw for 2 tds odds are you got garbage time. How bad does he suck?

Wow I've never seen odds like that on 2 or even 3 pass TDs before 😂  vs that Dallas d though 🤷‍♂️

 

Mo alie cox +850 is the guy I'm watching in this game

[NYRaider]

Anything last min? @N4L @Broncofan

[bigbadbuff]

Steelers and Seahawks ML parlay 

 

Vikings +2.5

[Broncofan]

Almost had 2 TD's from Ty Chandler, and Tanner Hudson got a DPI in EZ, but still 2 TD props and a TON of full alt line hits.

So adding a 3rd alt line for Trey McBride 100+ rec yds +1000 DK 0.5U and took his TD prop at +300 TheScore / +2800 FD 0.8U/0.2U.

[adamq]

TREY ******* MCBRIDE WHAT A WAY TO GET OVER 100 GOAT CALL

[Broncofan]

For SNF I'm going back to the well, as IMO the process was right last week, matchups are similar, the breaks with Hall with penalties are the only reason they didn't hit esp rec yds wise since it's so low:

WEEK 10 SNF 

 

ATS/ML

NYJ ML pick 'em - just respect the D so much.    That's really it.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Breece Hall O17.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +380 1U DK - nothing new to last week.

Tyler Conklin O26.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +200 1U, 60 rec yds +550 0.5U DK - nothing new from last week.

 

LONGSHOT TD

Tyler Conklin +500 / +6500 FD (& DK for Single TD, 2+ is +5500) 1.2U / 0.3U - give him at least 2 looks like he got last week, and hopefully 1 cashes.

 

That's really it for SNF, more than enough lol.  9U on what's been a banner day for tonight.  BOL!

 

Edited November 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

11 hours ago, adamq said:

TREY ******* MCBRIDE WHAT A WAY TO GET OVER 100 GOAT CALL

How about the alt catch lines too.....5-6-7, and if you took 8, its was +1425 lol.    NGL, I really miss B365 (& no catch ladder with FD Canada either).  Still, I'm glad for all those who tailed - it was a MONSTER day even without that.

Only 2 bad breaks - Ty Chandler had a SECOND TD called back by a hold, and Tanner Hudson got DPI'd in the EZ on a TD.   And of course Lawrence Cager scores THIS week, not last lol.

Still, it was an amazing day even with no McBride catch alt lines for me:

WEEK 10 SUNDAY RECAP

ATS/ML - 3-1, +2.1U - ok, LAC-DET U48.5 wasn't close.   But SF -3, ARI ML +110 & DAL O29.5 were all strong calls. I'll take it lol.

PLAYER PROPS - 7-3 +37.5U - yes, you saw that right...because 5 of the 7 hit ALL of their alt lines, and McBride's additional 100+ got me 5U on +1000 0.5U.

LONGSHOT TD - 2-8 (Jimmy Graham VOID), +0.6U - so unlucky Ty Chandler didn't hit for 20U, and Hudson for 5U...but still, I'll take it.

So yes, that's a crazy +40.2U Sunday, and +38.2U Week 10 so far.   UNREAL....this is the power of alt lines.   And if you had B365, and took Mcbride 5-6-7 (and 8+ if you YOLO'd) - CRAZY unreal day, probably another 10-15U alone there.    

On to SNF, let's keep it rolling!

Edited November 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

I can't believe the Ravens and Bengals both lost, lmfao.

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

For SNF I'm going back to the well, as IMO the process was right last week, matchups are similar, the breaks with Hall with penalties are the only reason they didn't hit esp rec yds wise since it's so low:

WEEK 10 SNF 

 

ATS/ML

NYJ ML pick 'em - just respect the D so much.    That's really it.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Breece Hall O17.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +380 1U DK - nothing new to last week.

Tyler Conklin O26.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +200 1U, 60 rec yds +550 0.5U DK - nothing new from last week.

 

LONGSHOT TD

Tyler Conklin +500 / +6500 FD (& DK for Single TD, 2+ is +5500) 1.2U / 0.3U - give him at least 2 looks like he got last week, and hopefully 1 cashes.

 

That's really it for SNF, more than enough lol.  9U on what's been a banner day for tonight.  BOL!

 

 

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

How about the alt catch lines too.....5-6-7, and if you took 8, its was +1425 lol.    NGL, I really miss B365 (& no catch ladder with FD Canada either).  Still, I'm glad for all those who tailed - it was a MONSTER day even without that.

Only 2 bad breaks - Ty Chandler had a SECOND TD called back by a hold, and Tanner Hudson got DPI'd in the EZ on a TD.   And of course Lawrence Cagers scores THIS week, not last lol.

Still, it was an amazing day even with no McBride catch alt lines for me:

WEEK 10 SUNDAY RECAP

ATS/ML - 3-1, +2.1U - ok, LAC-DET U48.5 wasn't close.   But SF -3, ARI ML +110 & DAL O29.5 were all strong calls. I'll take it lol.

PLAYER PROPS - 7-3 +37.5U - yes, you saw that right...because 5 of the 7 hit ALL of their alt lines, and McBride's additional 100+ got me 5U on +1000 0.5U.

LONGSHOT TD - 2-8 (Jimmy Graham VOID), +0.6U - so unlucky Ty Chandler didn't hit for 20U, and Hudson for 5U...but still, I'll take it.

So yes, that's a crazy +40.2U Sunday, and +38.2U Week 10 so far.   UNREAL....this is the power of alt lines.   And if you had B365, and took Mcbride 5-6-7 (and 8+ if you YOLO'd) - CRAZY unreal day, probably another 10-15U alone there.    

On to SNF, let's keep it rolling!

 

 

Well Week 10 SUN slate will go down as an all-timer - and if you had B365 / US FD and you took the TNF Tommy Tremble catch ladder and the SUN 5-6-7-8 (I didn't call the 8 TBF) with Trey McBride, you're probably up 15U+ more with the usual 2U/1U/0.5U (+0.5U for 3rd alt line if called on) ladder. 

And to think that Ty Chandler's 2nd TD gets called back, Tanner Hudson has a TD prevented by DPI, and Lawrence Cager ("only" at +1000 this week lol) chooses to score this week (same with Dynami Brown, but he was only at +500 range, both seemed about right...lol damn).    Chandler & Hudson ALONE would be a 25U swing.

Still, it was a legendary SUN, given that there wasn't a longshot parley or a 2-TD monster, this was just alt-line after alt-line hitting, 9-3 for player props but 7 of the 9 props hit ALL 3 (or in Mcbride's case, all 4) lines.....and Howell was only a 2U play.  So that's how you literally get a 50U+ profit off player props alone, and a +50.2U profit for Sunday (and +48.2U for Week 10 so far)!  What a day!

WEEK 10 SUN RECAP

ATS/ML - 3-2, +1.1U

PLAYER PROPS - 9-3, +50.0U

LONGSHOT TD - -0.9U

NET - +50.2U (!!!!)

 

WEEK 10 to MNF

ATS/ML: 19-22-2, -1.1U (WK 10 to MNF - 3-2, +1.1U )

PLAYER PROPS: 84-741, +104.9U  (WK 10 to MNF - 12-4, +50.5U)

LONGSHOT TD: 17-141 - -23.4U  (WK 10 to MNF - 2-12, -2.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600)

TOTAL - +80.4U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 to MNF - +48.2U; 646U stake so far)

[Broncofan]

So you know my MNF ATS/ML play, and 2 of my 3 player props, but I found value in 2 TD props - not surprisingly, it's on the DEN side, as the BUF side is mega juiced.   If I believe DEN is easily beating the O19.5 team total, I'm implying 3 TD's, so I found 2 books which are of line with others:

WEEK 10 MNF

ATS/ML

DEN O19.5 - I've covered this before, BUF is actually a bottom 5 D by DVOA since Matt Milano & Daquon Jones and Tre'davious White all went on IR.    I also think the BUF pass O presents a diverse attack that DEN's resurgent D has not had even close to the same level of opposition depth to account for.   So I don't really want to hit the spread, or the over/under, but simply go after a total I think DEN will easily beat, barring a complete prime time meltdown by Russell Wilson.

PLAYER PROPS

Javonte Williams O54.5 rush yds 2U (now 55.5), 80+ rush yds +260 1U DK  - covered this before, he's gone 80+ rush yds last 2 games, and BUF's definitely vulnerable.

Dalton Kincaid O51.5 rec yds (now 52.5) 2U, 80+ rec yds +300 1U (and if you have B365 or US FD - take 6-7-8 catch ladder) DK - DEN's resurgent D is still super vulnerable to the TE, and Josh Allen uses Kincaid as his security blanket.  If I had the catch ladder I’d definitely go there (oh well).  
 

NEW ADDED SUN PM Jerry Jeudy O51.5 rec yds, 80+ rec yds +300 1U DK - The main # is still too low, and while I expect DEN to run at least 30x, Jeudy's abilty to get open should get him to 4-5/65-70 IMO, so both main line and 1st alt line are in play.

That's 9U in player props=

LONGSHOT TD

NEW ADDED SUN PM Jerry Jeudy +300 / +3500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - I was truly surprised to see a +300 for him, as I had his odds around +180. No other book is giving him better than +230, so I have to take the shot.

NEW ADDED SUN PM Jaleel Mclaughlin +400 / +3500 0.8U / 0.2U TheScore - this one is crazy, because he's no better than +250 and close to +200 on some books.   Sorry if this only for Canuck bettors who have this, but gotta take the plunge. 

 

So that's 2U in TD props, and 12U total for MNF.   It's a scary number, but I feel good taking the top volume runner on the team likely to run, the top yardage/target guy there and BUF's #2 target guy behind Diggs, and where DEN is weakest.   Plus, this game has an implied total of 5, if not 6 TD's, so lots of O expected (and I concur).    

Let's finish a fantastic Week10 strong, BOL!

 

 

WEEK 10 to MNF

ATS/ML: 19-22-2, -1.1U (WK 10 to MNF - 3-2, +1.1U )

PLAYER PROPS: 84-74, +104.9U  (WK 10 to MNF - 12-4, +50.5U)

LONGSHOT TD: 17-141 - -23.4U  (WK 10 to MNF - 2-12, -2.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600)

TOTAL - +80.4U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 to MNF - +48.2U; 646U stake so far)

Edited November 13, 2023 by Broncofan