Broncofan Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 (edited) With Andre Iosivas out, it's probably a donation, but I can't resist taking a YOLO shot on Stanley Morgan +2000 (+1800 FD) TheScore / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U. He's going to be the 4th WR, and given how vulnerable BAL secondary is without Humphrey, feels like I should take some longshot WR on that team. It's probably a donation but it's hard not to have some WR out there with no Humphrey. FD odds will likely increase as well, so if you don't have The Score, just track FD. EDIT: Eh, Morgan's mostly ST still. OK, back to the drawing board. The guy who could step back in is Charlie Jones - he's +700 on FD, no 2-TD prop yet. He's the clear 4th WR (and punt returner) with no Higgins/Iosivas, and would bump Morgan down if he's active. I'll put 0.4U on him if that's the best price (I'd wait and see what other books offer if he's active) - if he's not activated off IR for tonight, it voids then I'll put the Stanley Morgan play in, as there literally won't be anyone else left. Both are definite longshots, but it's worth getting a small piece of the WR action with the BAL D missing Humphrey, it literally opens up the entire field when he's not there. With Andrews being 2U on O4.5 catches, it's 11U total for tonight. BOL! EDIT THU PM: Charlie Jones is active and he’s +1500 / +20000 2+ on DK. Edited November 16, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 19 hours ago, N4L said: I love the over lamar 17.5 completions. That is too low imo. Also, his yardage prop might be low as well, no? Can someone with FD or DK tell me what a parlay of the over 17.5 lamar completions parlayed with the under 27.5 pass attempts, and the over 225 yards looks like? I am typically not a parlay guy but this seems interesting to me O226.5 yards O18.5 comp U27.5 att +1100 Don't see the 17.5 or 28.5 numbers anywhere to use in a SGP 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 5 hours ago, Broncofan said: With Andre Iosivas out, it's probably a donation, but I can't resist taking a YOLO shot on Stanley Morgan +2000 (+1800 FD) TheScore / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U. He's going to be the 4th WR, and given how vulnerable BAL secondary is without Humphrey, feels like I should take some longshot WR on that team. It's probably a donation but it's hard not to have some WR out there with no Humphrey. FD odds will likely increase as well, so if you don't have The Score, just track FD. EDIT: Eh, Morgan's mostly ST still. OK, back to the drawing board. The guy who could step back in is Charlie Jones - he's +700 on FD, no 2-TD prop yet. He's the clear 4th WR (and punt returner) with no Higgins/Iosivas, and would bump Morgan down if he's active. I'll put 0.4U on him if that's the best price (I'd wait and see what other books offer if he's active) - if he's not activated off IR for tonight, it voids then I'll put the Stanley Morgan play in, as there literally won't be anyone else left. Both are definite longshots, but it's worth getting a small piece of the WR action with the BAL D missing Humphrey, it literally opens up the entire field when he's not there. With Andrews being 2U on O4.5 catches, it's 11U total for tonight. BOL! Charlie Jones activated - and he’s +1500 / +20000 2+ on DK so took the 0.4U / 0.1U play. That locks up TNF so BOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Absolutely infuriating to see Andrews go down. Over and reception ladder was a lock. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 FD had a 30% boost on any live bet so I took Agholar again after andrews got hurt.. smash +1400 win along with the +800 on ESPN with a bonus bet. Def makes up for the Andrews injury Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: Absolutely infuriating to see Andrews go down. Over and reception ladder was a lock. It's not at all an expectation, and frankly ppl should be OK with it if books don't do it - but the PR angst over Andrews going 2/23 in the FIRST DRIVE ALONE may lead to all Andrews bets being voided, or bet credit refunds. I'd say it's a 50-50 chance at this stage, and if it happens, it will be tomorrow. I'll say this as much as it hurts to have 5.5U on Andrews and looking like a mortal lock - books aren't obligated to refund/void. Part of the line incorporates injury risk. But I won't complain if they make that call tomorrow lol. As it turns out, the Burrow injury hurt just as much - the pass game was absolutely crushed, so I lost 3U on Ja'Marr Chase, and then lost the CIN ML 1U as well. The ONLY saving grace? That Nelson Agholor TD, it turns an -11U day to a rough -7.6U result, which is still pretty meh, but that's football. And given that Andrews looked to be hitting something like 6-7/80+ at minimum, it's hard to say the process is flawed - he goes 6/80+, and it's a +4.5U day (yes, a literally 11U+ swing). I'm not going to update the Week 11 scorecard yet though, given the online Andrews-refund campaign that's going on lol. But ppl shouldn't expect it as a requirement, and if they don't do it, well, I'll move on to Sunday's slate lol. Edited November 17, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 (edited) So the alt lines for a lot of my plays are out - I'll update them on the prior Sunday slate card. In the meantime, with Nelson Agholor kicking off Week 11 on a good note in the TD props, I've got quite a few TD plays for Sunday, I'm genuinely shocked with 3-4 of them, so here goes: WEEK 11 SUNDAY SLATE PLAYER PROPS LATE NEW ADDED FRI PM - Saquon Barkley O17.5 Rec yds (now 18.5) 2U, 40+ Rec yds +340 & 60+ Rec yds +1100 0.5U DK - yes Tommy Devito is scary as QB. But the WAS D gives up 50+ yards to RB’s in the last 5 games. Gotta take the full alt line given Saquon’s usage and home run threat. LONGSHOT TD EARLY Kyle Phillips +700 FD (+600 DK) / +8000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - Phillips still doesn't get as many snaps as you'd like to see to go full-stake, but for the matchup / role he's got, this is too good to pass up. Chigozam Okonko +550 DK/FD / +8000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - Chig, on the other hand, gets pretty much a full-time role now, and his matchup with JAX's D means I have to take the full-stake play here. Cedrick Wilson +600 / +9500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - My eyes popped when I saw this, as Wilson is the clear 3rd WR and gets over 80+ percent snaps now, and Tua has showed great chemistry with him. I get that MIA might run the Raiders out of the stadium, but even in a blowout, Wilson is the guy who's going to get more PT as they rest Tyreek & Waddle. So I have to take the full-stake play. Donald Parham +450 / +5500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - Nothing new here, they offer +400 / +5000 2+ or better, I'll take the full stake play unless it's a great TE D...and GB isn't. Dontavion Wicks +650 / +8000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - On the flip side, Wicks gets about half the snaps, but he has an equal target share to the 2nd/3rd guys (Doubs & J-Reed). Last week Reed paid off at +600, here it's Wicks who gets the big odds boost, so I'll go here vs. the porous LAC D. With GB resuming the intermediate-deep throws again, it makes Wicks a nice play. Michael Carter +1400 FD / +20000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - the books think Carter is the 3rd RB with Demercado out....they think Keontay Ingram is the backup. He might be, but IMO Carter is by far the more talented back. And as he's a great pass catcher, he offers huge potential for 3rd down or 2 minute drill / garbage time work. If I'm right, next week he'll be +400 or less and the value is gone. The uncertainty is why I can only go half-stake here. Lawrence Cager +1600 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - it figures Cager scores against DAL, and I hate chasing last week's results - but WAS is literally the worst TE D this year, and they've given up 5 TD's already. Still, I wasn't looking to play this - until these odds were posted. Have to take the half-stake play given how bad WAS TE D is. LATE Trey Palmer +800 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - I am shocked at this number, given that like Cedrick Wilson, Palmer gets a full-time set of snaps, and a clear 3rd in WR targets. Against a vulnerable SF secondary, at that number it's worth the half-stake play. SNF Johnny Mundt +1800 FD (+1500 DK) / +16000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - DEN is terrible against the TE, which sets up well for TJ Hockenson. But he's grinding out multiple rib injuries, and a foot injury (wearing a plate). He's one tough SOB. But that also means that Mundt gets on the field about 25 percent of the time, and he's a better pass catcher than Josh Oliver. So it's worth the half-stake play. If Hock has to sit out plays, Mundt's the pass catcher. And if it's 12 personnel with a pass option, I'm banking on Mundt to be the pass-catching TE. MNF Waiting So that's 6.5U in Sunday TD plays, across 10 players. There are a few games where the books haven't completely posted, but fewer than last week, so nothing that really sticks out. Edited November 18, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 (edited) I FINALLY got my account verified on ESPN Bet. They told me that I needed to take pictures of my ID and a selfie. I wouldve never known had I not once again hit up chat support. Once I did I instantly got my account open. I deposited $10 placed my first bet which was an NBA bet and instantly got the (4) $50 bonus bets into my account to use. So Im excited about that. Edited November 17, 2023 by stl4life07 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 (edited) James Harden is +700 to score 25 vs the Rockets tonight on FD. +380 range is where other books have it. Revenge game narrative and all he cares about this year is scoring points unless LAC brass have changed his mind with strip club vouchers Edited November 17, 2023 by adamq 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, adamq said: James Harden is +700 to score 25 vs the Rockets tonight on FD. +380 range is where other books have it. Revenge game narrative and all he cares about this year is scoring points unless LAC brass have changed his mind with strip club vouchers That has definite appeal, if I might suggest that if you want to bet 25+ +700 1U, you backstop his O16.5 with 2U, JIC he barely misses. The flip side - Harden & Norm Powell are playing zero D vs the SG. Since Harden joined the team, they've played 4 games, 1st of which was against a shorthanded BKN team that only had 8 players. The other 3 games, this what the SG combos (or alpha) has done: DAL - Kyrie Irving 27 pts, 8-19 shooting, 5-9 3-pt MEM - Marcus Smart & Luke Kennard, 30 combined pts, 9-17 shooting, 5-7 3-pt DEN - KCP & Christian Braun, 19 combined pts, 7-9 shooting, 2-3 3-pt Who is HOU playing at SG? The mercurial Jalen Green. He's averaging 19 PPG, but it's misleading, given that he's had 3 games where the starters were pulled early (1 L, 2 big W's), and a W against DEN in which he played terribly, and scored 9 pts on 1-13 shooting. Thing is, in 3/9 games, he's scored 10 pts or less, against 2 top SG D's, and a blowout win in which he was only given 10 shots. The other 6 games? All between 21-28 pts, and in 3 of those games, he sat early with blowout win. He's also shooting 40% from 3-pt, so man, if you can get him 7-8 open looks, well, you get the idea (and he's a 83% FT shooter, so there are so many paths for points with him - but he also has been a pretty bad defender in the past, so Harden's props are also in play). Jalen Green's total is O19.5 - so I'm going 2U there, and 1U 25+ +290 & 30+ +950 on FD. I'm pairing that with James Harden O16.5 2U & 25+ +700 1U FD as well, so it's a 6.5U night (gulp). It's going to make for a really enjoyable or really awful game for me (but it will have my attention lol). Edited November 18, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 (edited) I have 4 more TD plays for Sun late slate & MNF, getting to be a crazy card, but the TD value can't be passed up: NEW ADDED FRI PM - Colby Parkinson +700 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - the Rams have given up the 2nd most TD's with, so have to go back to the well with Parkinson here. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Tyler Conklin +500 FD/Bodog / +8000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - you know the deal here. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Noah Gray +850 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - PHI is a bottom 3 TE D, and so it sets up well for Kelce, but at those odds and KC's love of 12 formation in the RZ and heavy usage of Gray an easy half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Julio Jones +850 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - with Dallas Goedert out, it's not the TE's who saw more work, but the WR's and RB's. So I have to add the biggest body at that price for a half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Albert Okwuegbunam +1400 / +20000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - having said the above, the one guy who wasn't around last year is Albert O. I don't even know if he'll be active - but if he plays, it won't be to block. Given that, an easy half-unit play for Albert O. If he's inactive, it voids. I'll have some player props for SNF/MNF, but all books are pretty much out, so I think that's the TD slate for Week 11. Edited November 18, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Goes into the 4th with 20, scores nothing until the final shot where he drains a 3 and 1... finishes with 24 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Just now, adamq said: Goes into the 4th with 20, scores nothing until the final shot where he drains a 3 and 1... finishes with 24 😂 Well, that's where the main line comes in handy - it's a +1.5U win with the alt lines for both Green & Harden combined...but yeah, so close to so much more. Still, a W's a W, it was a good call. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 (edited) 3 final additions to the day slate: NEW ADDED SAT PM - Tommy Tremble +850 TheScore (+700 FD) / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U & Stephen Sullivan +1600 FD / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - with news Hayden Hurst is out, and the D's single weak area being TE's, worth the half-stake play to cover the 2 guys who soak up all the TE work. NEW ADDED SAT PM Greg Dortch +900 TheScore (+750 DK) / +15000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U* - both Michael Wilson & Zach Pascal are out for ARI so Dortch is the WR3 and returns punts. Also had chemistry with Kyler Murray last year. Worth the half-stake play. As always, I also was given 2 free 0.2U free bet credit plays on DK (but damn, they dropped it from 0.4U to 0.2U lol), so I put a *YOLO 9-leg +26000 player prop parley* with DTR o19.5 rush yds / J-Gibbs O24.5 rec yds / J-Myers O37.5 rec yds / T-Mcbride O53.5 rec yds / C-Okonkwo O27.5 rec yds / S-Barkley O17.5 rec yds / B-Hall O55.5 rush yds / CMC O31.5 rec yds / D-Swift O18.5 rec yds (so I can hedge Swift if I'm 8-8 lol). I also played *0.2U for Calvin Ridley most SUN receiving yds at +8000* for my 2nd free bet credit bet. So that's 8.5U in TD props with 13 plays on Sunday, and 40.5U with 12 player props, and 3U in ATS/ML plays, so that's a whopping 52U. If you want to go a little safer, cut everything in half for a 26U play. BOL! Edited November 19, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 (edited) McCaffrey over 4.5 receptions McCaffrey 25+ receiving yards Dallas -20.5 Dallas wins race to 25 points Lamb 100+ receiving yards Dolphins -13.5 Dolphins win race to 25 points Dolphins 1st half winner Hill 100+ receiving yards Lions -6.5 Lions 1st half winner Lions win race to 20 points St. Brown 100+ receiving McBride 40+ receiving yards McBride over 4.5 catches Collins/Dell/Schultz 40+ receiving yards each ( Stroud spreads the ball around and it can be hard to pin down who has the big game yardage wise ) Collins over 4.5 receptions Stroud 325+ passing yards Bet $2.50 Payout( with DK 50% boost ) $18k Edited November 19, 2023 by Dash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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