Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

Just now, Wentz you dog you said:

Like the bets but Desai does not coach like Fangio at all. They run a ton of M2M and shade / double certain guys depending on the offensive formation / personnel. 

Very fair comment, I've seen a ton of zone when the secondary has been decimated and Desai learned the Fangio scheme, but he can be his own guy too - and it's better if a DC adjusts the scheme to his players' talents in-season than vice-versa.   With Bradberry & Byard back in the fold, Desai would be wise to move away from read & react. 

[Broncofan]

On 11/28/2023 at 2:53 PM, Broncofan said:

OK a fuller card is out for TNF, so here goes:

WEEK 13 TNF
 

ATS/ML

DAL Team Total O27.5 - rather than worry about a total in the mid-40's, I'd rather just back a more comfortable team total.   DAL D's ability to create TO's, SEA's vulnerability to the run and TE/RB and DAL's diverse pass O, it's the easiest play to take out of the all the choices in this category.

 

PLAYER PROPS

DK Metcalf O56.5 rec yds 2U DK (FD - 59.5), 80+ rec yds +210 1U & 100+ rec yds +650 0.5U DK - yes, DK is going to get Daron Bland.   Bland's excellent, but he still gives up yards to elite WR's, and DK is one of them.   DK excels with man coverage, still the dominant target hog and gets plenty of opps for the big play (so volume & distance), so have to take the shot.

Tony Pollard O18.5 rec yds 2U DK, O3.5 recs 2U +130 DK, 40+ rec yds +360 0.5U - SEA has a vulnerable run D, but their pass coverage to RB's is even more suspect - they gave up 120+ to WAS, and 40+ last week to LAR, and that's one area DAL is willing to keep pepperring, as Pollard's been good for 5-6 targets a game.   It's not a great alt line play for catches, I'd consider 5-6 if I had B365, but as I don't, it's easier to take the plus money O3.5. 

 

LONGSHOT TD

Colby Parkinson +1200 FD / +13000 DK 2+ & Will Dissly +1400 / +17000 2+ DK both 0.4U / 0.1U - nothing complicated, DAL D is tied for league lead in TD's to TE's at 6.    They all split work with Noah Fant, but Fant is in the +500-600 range (which is about right), so worth the combo full-unit play.

 

That's it for now, I have a couple of minor player props I'll consider, but certainly those are the ones that stand out, with 10U committed so far (DK alt lines x2 pending, Pollard maybe extra alt line depending on odds).

Ppl should never turn down a profitable night, but tonight feels like such a snakebitten missed opportunity with Tony Pollard.  He was credited with 3 catches for 15 yards, but there was a clear 2nd and 12 where Dak flared a ball out to the flat, and Pollard got back to the LOS - and it was changed to a run.   That's almost never called a run.   That was a 4.6U swing.   And then there was the DPI that prevented a catch, and worse, a 6 yard TD pass that Pollard had between the eyes (and it doinked off his helmet).   The TD catch was literally a 8.6U swing, but even the iffy ruling was a 4.6U swing....oh well.  

The SEA TE's had lots of EZ snaps on 1st/2nd down, and there was 1 missed pass to Dissly where he was at least 50-50 to score (and Parkinson was wide open on the other side of the field for a TD), but that's the game.  Pollard's miss stings a lot more.  

Still, DAL O27.5 was easy money, as was DK Metcalf's alt lines all hitting in the first 20 mins lol.   So it's a +2.8U day, just felt like a 7-11U was right there.  Still, it's a day with black in the ledger, so we move on to Week 13 Sunday slate looking to build on the MNF/TNF momentum!

 

WEEK 13 to TNF

ATS/ML: 25-30-2, -2.8U (WK 13 TNF - 1-0, +1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 104-98, +91.2U  (WK 13 TNF - 1-1, +2.8U)

LONGSHOT TD: 21-167 - -19.2U  (WK 13 TNF - 0-1, -1U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400)

TOTAL - +69.2U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 TNF - +2.8U; 839U stake so far)

Edited December 1, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK 2 more SUN player props added, and 1 more TD prop to add tonight (and I added 1 yesterday - just highlighting it if you have Bodog):

NEW PLAYER PROPS

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Devin Singletary O10.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ rec yds +280 1U, 40+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK vs. DEN - DEN's vulnerability to RB's & TE's is well known - but it looks more & more like Dalton Schultz isn't playing.   This is a great opp for Singletary in the pass game, where his usage has increased as he's taken over.   Worth the full alt line play.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Jerry Jeudy O46.5 rec yds 2U @ HOU - against HOU's pass D, both Sutton and Jeudy should get work, but Jeudy's number is 10+ yards lower, so easier to attack this & 1 alt line.   Payton's emphasis on the run is why I can't go higher than 70+ though.  EDIT FRI PM - totally missed Jeudy's groin is acting up, keeping it at main line only (it's up to 47.5, so alt line cashed out without penalty, but can't cash out main line, gotta let it ride).

NEW LONGSHOT TD

NEW ADDED THU PM (stake increased FRI AM) - Brevin Jordan +800 / +12500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U Bodog vs. DEN - beat reporters are increasingly certain Brevin Jordan is going to start, and Dalton Schultz won't play.  Against DEN's pass D, this is a full-stake play now.  If I wait until it's official, the line probably drops to +300, so I'm taking the full-stake play now.

 

 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Jeremy Ruckert +1400 / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog vs. ATL - I know it's tough to take any Jet for a TD prop.  But Ruckert is now splitting both snaps and targets with Tyler Conklin, and TE is a prime RZ/EZ target especially vs. the ATL secondary (their CB's and S Bates are so good).    He's +700 on DK, and not out on FD/Score, but I can't think +1400 will be beat.  Still, it's the Jets' O, and it's a timeshare, so only a half-stake play.

So I'm up to 31.5U on 9 player props (and I'm still interested in Greg Dortch rec yds and Juwan Johnson rec yds <plus TD props if I get +500 range <FD late Sun just before 1 PM is my best chance>) in the early slate, and am toying with Brandon Aiyuk rec yds in the late slate, but will likely wait to see how the early slate is going).  I'm up to 5.5U in TD props with 8 plays (and I'd admit Smith-Marsette & Ruckert are mostly educated hunches, but the other 6 IMO have lock-solid opportunity - and why 3 of them are full-stake).

So that's 41U so far, with Dortch/Juwan-Johnson on my radar early.   Definitely enough for now, lol.  SUN's OG card updated, link below....

 

 

Edited December 2, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

33 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Devin Singletary O10.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ rec yds +280 1U, 40+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK vs. DEN - DEN's vulnerability to RB's & TE's is well known - but it looks more & more like Dalton Schultz isn't playing.   This is a great opp for Singletary in the pass game, where his usage has increased as he's taken over.   Worth the full alt line play.

Really like this play. 

 

Bad TNF for me. I need to stop forgetting that these TNF games are trending toward the Over more times than not, likely due to lack of rest & defensive game-planning. I had Teased the U54.5 on two different tickets. 

Beyond that, I had DK Metcalf U57.5, Dak U281.5, Brandin Cooks U41.5, & JSN O40.5. Had a stretch there where I hit 10 props in a row but that gets derailed tonight. 

 

Nonetheless, I had a lot of Cowboys ML, so at least that pays out (to subdue the pain I feel as a Seahawks fan). 

[SaveOurSonics]

13 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Josh Downs O48.5 rec yds FD (50.5 DK FRI AM - now both 51.5) 2U, 70+ rec yds +200 1U & 100+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK @ TEN - I know we lost last week with Downs vs. TAM, but that was truly a low-likelihood outcome.   Downs had THIRTEEN targets last week.....and he's getting another pass funnel D.   In the prior meeting, he went 7-96 vs. TEN, and that was a game in which IND could run the ball because TEN's all-world run stuffer Teair Tart was out - he's not out this week.  This is a pass funnel gamescript, so backing Dobbs for the full 3.5U alt line play.

This is another one of my favorite plays of the week. 

[Broncofan]

6 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Really like this play. 

 

Bad TNF for me. I need to stop forgetting that these TNF games are trending toward the Over more times than not, likely due to lack of rest & defensive game-planning. I had Teased the U54.5 on two different tickets. 

Beyond that, I had DK Metcalf U57.5, Dak U281.5, Brandin Cooks U41.5, & JSN O40.5. Had a stretch there where I hit 10 props in a row but that gets derailed tonight. 

 

Nonetheless, I had a lot of Cowboys ML, so at least that pays out (to subdue the pain I feel as a Seahawks fan). 

FWIW I don’t think last night was the start of  a new TNF trend.  Both SEA & DAL were coming off byes.   It’s almost like playing on 3 days rest leads to bad football and playing on full or longer rest leads to good football.   Crazy notion.   🙄
 

The NFL could just get on with 2-bye week schedule (likely with 18 games and 2 extra bye weeks - 20 week totals), and commit to triple-header TNF opener week 1 (and then switch teams among the 6 for doubleheader week 2 & then have a diff matchup from the 6 teams week 3) -  then start byes week 3 onwards.    We’d then have week 4+ TNF teams have bye weeks the week before - we’d see high quality games.  Pipe dream I know.   
 

Either way though until the short rest weeks stop going with the under works most TNF’s.  

Edited December 1, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Another YOLO TD addition - Alex Erickson +1600 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U  @ NE - Keenan Allen DNP x 2 days and the 2 other guys just suck (QJ & Guyton).   Had a 78 & 52 percent snap share last 2 weeks.  On other sites his odds are +500 - +700 which seems about right.   The possibility of the 3 guys ahead of him playing are why it’s only a half-stake play.

[Broncofan]

Some additions to my card, one important reduction in stake...

SUN PLAYER PROPS

NEW ALT LINE REMOVED FRI PM - Jerry Jeudy O46.5 rec yds 2U @ HOU - against HOU's pass D, both Sutton and Jeudy should get work, but Jeudy's number is 10+ yards lower, so easier to attack this & 1 alt line.   Payton's emphasis on the run is why I can't go higher than 70+ though.  EDIT FRI PM - damn, I completely missed that he had a groin DNP on Wednesday (at work all day/night).   DK's total is up to 47.5 so I can't cash out the main line, but I can cash out the 1U alt line, and I don’t even take the 0.1U hit.   Especially as it's a groin issue that came up 2-3 weeks prior, if I had known (and yes it's my team, really a big oops on my part), I would've passed. 

NEW WAITING FRI PM (not released) - Juwan Johnson rec yds if low-mid 20's & Greg Dortch rec yds if low 30's - Rasheed Shaheed & Michael Thomas are already confirmed out, Chris Olave is unclear (he needs a full practice today to get cleared tomorrow).   I know Lynn Bowden & AT Perry & Keith Kirkwood will get low yardage props (LOL) but I'll take Juwan Johnson any day if they keep him in the mid 20's.    Likewise, Michael Wilson is already confirmed out, even if Hollywood Brown & Trey McBride are active, Dortch will have the best WR matchup in the slot vs. PIT.

NEW LONGSHOT TD

NEW WAITING TO TAKE (FD likely) - Jordan Love +550 at present FD / +7000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs KC SNF - much like I'm doing with Juwan Johnson, I'm going to see if the odds go way up just before gametime (so between 1230 PM ET - 1 PM ET for Juwan, I'll wait to see what the odds are after 730 PM ET.   It looks like Aaron Jones is out, which means the run game is really down to AJ Dillon, so I think that adds a greater chance we'll see Love running for a TD (and with Hutchinson chasing him too).   

STILL WAITING (FD) - Juwan Johnson if +500 or better 0.8/0.2U vs. DET - he's +350 on DK, but I'm hoping even if it comes out similar with FD, the last-minute (last 30 mins before game starts) FD TD rise will happen. If not, then I'll pass, but definitely want to see where things are at.

 

Figured if you knew the targets, ppl could check on their own and decide for themselves.   BOL!

Edited December 2, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

 

2 more props to add....

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Curtis Samuel O35.5 rec yds 2U / 60+ rec yds +300 1U / 80+ rec yds 0.5U DK vs. MIA -  Jaelen Phillips out kills the MIA pass rush, and Samuel lines up in the slot or left side - so he avoids Jalen Ramsey.   As a Johan Dotson truther, I've come to accept the WAS O focuses on Samuel as the matchup  & short-intermediate guy (sigh) - too good of a spot with gamescript & matchup & volume/usage.

On the TD front, CAR's top 2 TE Hurst & Tremble are out - which makes Steven Sullivan +1100 / +12500 2+ on Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U  a definite play, even on a bad pass attack.    +850 on FD and that's ok too.  The reason besides the snaps / target share being there is that TAM is missing both starting ILB (White & David) & CB Dean (the latter - come on Mingo yardage props).

 

Edited December 3, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Still waiting on NO props (as Olave won't get cleared in concussion protocol until tomorrow), with S Minkah Fitzpatrick back and CB Joey Porter Jr. solidifying the pass coverage, I'm passing on ARI player props altogether.   Still interested in Juwan Johnson rec yd props if they're low enough, but I'm adding Brevin Jordan O21.5 rec yds FD (24.5 DK) 2U, 40+ rec yds +225 1U DK & 60+ rec yds 0.5U DK - DEN's coverage vs. RB & TE are worth targeting at these kind of #'s.

Kayshon Boutte's now inactive, so that's 1 TD play removed - card updated accordingly.   Other than Juwan Johnson, I think that probably wraps things up for Sunday - let's keep the MNF/TNF momentum going!

Edited December 2, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

FWIW while I wait for Juwan Johnson yardage props to see if it's worth taking, there are 4 FD TD props I'm likely taking tomorrow (and for which I've already locked in 2-TD on 3 of them as they likely will disappear if 1-TD odds go up), but waiting until <1 hour before gametime, given their odds shouldn't get any worse, but likely will improve (Juwan Johnson went from +410 to +650 IIRC last week, as an example):

EARLY

Lynn Bowden +450 / +6000 2+ FD EDIT SUN AM:  Already +750 / +11000 2+ now, locking in 2+ TD but waiting until noon for anytime TD vs. DET (would take 0.4U / 0.1U) - he's the clear #2 WR tomorrow, not AT Perry, even if Chris Olave plays (I think he will).  DK has him at +425, the other books at +300 or lower.   The 2-TD plays are worse.   More importantly, only FD changes odds late.   Olave being cleared may in fact improve the odds today - so keep an eye out.  But if it doesn't, then keep an eye between 12-1 PM ET tomorrow.  If it does widen, then make sure to check 2-TD once the 1-TD are +600, as you start running the risk of losing the 2-TD plays (which will be better than any other book).   EDIT SUN AM:  Olave news did push Bowden to +750, and 2+ to +11000 2+ so locking in 2+ & waiting until noon ET for single TD>

LATE

Jonathan Mingo +600 (would take 0.8U) / +10000 2+ (already taken) 0.2U FD @ TAM - you already know the reasoning in the yardage prop, he's +400 or less everywhere else, and with no Jamel Dean, I do like his chances to get at least 1-2 RZ targets near or in the EZ.   The 2-TD odds will disappear if the 1-TD goes up anymore, so I'm locking that in now, and going to take the 1-TD stab between 3-4 PM ET, the question is if I get better odds (I like my chances)

SNF

Jordan Love +550 (would take 0.4U, but 0.8U if it hits +800) / +11000 2+ (already taken) 0.1U FD vs. KC - no Aaron Jones, so that leaves AJ Dillon & Patrick Taylor as the only RB's.  They can always try some jet sweeps or bubble screens, but can't discount the QB sneak, draw, or just scramble with little to no run game outside Dillon.   This is in range where the odds should go up if I wait for 1-TD, but the 2-TD odds are 2x as good as anywhere else and likely to disappear if 1-TD goes up any more, so taking that now.  Will wait until 7-730 PM ET to take 1-TD, hopefully see a +800 or better, and then it's a full-stake play.

Noah Gray +800 (would take 0.4U) / +12000 2+ (already taken) 0.1U FD @ GB - same deal as always, gets a 50 percent snap share and healthy presence inside the RZ with 12 formation.   He's +650 or lower everywhere else, so the 2-TD FD prop is better than any other site, and likely to disappear tomorrow if 1-TD goes up, so locking it in now.  Hoping we'll see +1000 or better by 7-730 PM ET.

 

Again, the 2-TD plays I'd lock in now if you are going to wait for 1-TD on Mingo and the SNF guys, just gotta watch Bowden's odds (once it goes past +600, probably risk losing the 2-TD, and at +600 it should be well over +9000 2+, so I'd take it then).   Figured this is a fluid play, so can't hurt to post it here (and no, I don't think the books read FF threads lol).   

P.S. Almost forgot - my 2 free 0.2U bet credit plays for this week - 8-leg +14000 YOLO parley with Gibbs O43.5 rush yds / Bijan O59.5 rush yds / Downs O50.5 rec yds / Singletary O10.5 rec yds / B-Jordan O24.5 rec yds / Deebo O49.5 rec yds / Mingo O25.5 rec yds / Mahomes O21.5 rush yds (so I can hedge if I'm still live by then) & my other is  Jahmyr Gibbs highest SUN rusher +4000.    BOL!

Edited December 3, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

Jordan Love is up to +750 on fanduel I locked that in.

[N4L]

I love Waddle this weekend. He is finally healthy and looks like he is fully back. 

I am smashing the gibbs and bijan props

I am also taking pittman in addition to downs. I think he will out muscle the titans secondary just like Mike evans did a few weeks ago. 

for the 49ers, its a Aiyuk rec yards, Kittle rec yards, and CMC rushing week. I also love the 49ers 1H ML along with the -3

[Broncofan]

Chris Olave active news has finally come in, so I can take some NO props:
 

SUN PLAYER PROP ADDITION
 

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Juwan Johnson O27.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds 1U FD vs. DET - Olave being back IMO actually helps Johnson, as he'd be a more focal part of D coverage, but as it is, he's still the 2nd starter in the WR/TE corps.   Carr's refusal to hit seam routes is why I can't go more than 1 alt line, but the yardage is more appealing than the O2.5 -140 (if you have alt lines on B365 or US, 4-5 isn't a bad play at all, but DET also gives up chunk plays, so yardage is my call).

 

SUN LONGSHOT TD ADDITION

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Lynn Bowden  +750 / +11000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. DET (wait on 1-TD until noon) - AT Perry is the guy books are banking on, but Bowden's clearly playing best of all the guys behind Olave/Shaheed/Thomas.   He should get 2nd WR ranking, but Perry is instead.    Because it's FD we can wait until noon ET or so to see if it goes up.   The only reason I'm not taking a full unit play is there's another dark horse that IMO has a good chance to get on the field in the RZ, and that's....

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Marquez Callaway +1800 FD / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. DET -  Callaway promoted from PS (of note, they didn't promote him last week to give AT Perry a chance - did nothing with it). Those are the 2nd / 3rd WR's who are more likely to get looks than AT Perry so going 0.4U/0.1U on both (waiting until noon to see if Bowden FD odds increase, but taking the 2+ now, as I'm locked in to +700 or better).

If Juwan Johnson (at +350 on FD now) goes past +500 by noon, I'll take the stab as well.    Also going to do the same on Jonathan Mingo for late slate, and Jordan Love for SNF.   Other than the FD TD last-minute props, that's it...let's have a great Sunday!

 

DK also gave me a 3rd free bet (after yesterday's UFC they probably took pity on me lol), so I'm taking a 6-leg +6600 free bet credit 0.2U parley for ATS/ML - LAC/NE O39 / IND ML @ TEN / CLE ML +164 @ LAR / DET -4.5 @ NO / SF -3 @ PHI / GB +6 vs. KC SNF - not going to actually put single bets on LAC & IND (since it's TEN at home, and it's LAC in general lol).

Edited December 3, 2023 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Tailing quite a few of your guys' plays, only thing I have to add is George Pickens alt yards. Up to 80+ is +400 on DK. I think he will be featured more today and the offense will continue to improve under not Matt Canada