Weekly Bets Thread

[adamq]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Can’t really play Cobb at that number.   Akins isn’t bad but that’s 3rd TE territory.  I usually keep it to 2nd lol. 
 

it’s hard for me to criticize any play I mean I just bet on Randall Cobb.  

Yeahh it's very iffy but he was a nice deep threat for Houston last year.. Cleveland doesn't use him as much, I'll look his way next week vs Cinci

[thebestever6]

I'm a Ford catch and nojuku catch from hitting a 16 leg $5 parlay for $1,875 I can't watch.

[thebestever6]

ugh 1 Ford catch away from $1,875 no wear in the second half that's the name of the game that $5 bet got my moneys worth.

[Broncofan]

On 12/26/2023 at 8:44 PM, Broncofan said:

 

WEEK 17 TNF

ATS / ML

CLE -7 FD 2U - with Trevor Siemian starting I have zero confidence on how they fare against CLE D.    I think it’s a 14+ pt win in a TO neutral game. 
 

PLAYER PROPS

Breece Hall O46.5 rush yds 2U FD (48.5 on DK),  63+ rush yds +210 1U DK, O4.5 catches +120 @ CLE 2U - Hall gets monster volune but the yardage totals are more iffy (rec yds at 29.5).   I believe in the volume so likely will split catches & run yds. 

David Njoku O48.5 rec yds 2U DK, 66+ rec yds +210 1U DK vs. NYJ - when the CB’s shut down the WR Joe Flacco turns to Njoku.   I don’t see much difference in any other NYJ D matchup - if it’s an elite TE you attack it. 
 

That's 8U with 5U on Hall & 3U on Njoku.

 

LONGSHOT TD

Harrison Bryant +1300  / +16000 2+ DK (+900 / +14000 2+) FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NYJ - if you think I like Njoku yardage props you know I’ll take Bryant at these odds.  

Cedric Tillman +600 / +11000 FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs.  NYJ - he gets more boundary work than Elijah Moore.   Sauce Gardner will cover Cooper but slot CB Michael Carter will likely get Moore - yet Tillman has the best matchup vs DJ Reed by far and the best odds.   He gets as many snaps / targets but Moore is +400/4500.   Tillman is +475 or less everywhere else so I’ll lock in the 2-TD and wait to see if the single TD goes up.   

Tyler Conklin +700 / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U & Kenny Yeboah +2500 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4 / 0.1U @ CLE - covering the TE side on NYJ.   Jeremy Ruckert is out Yeboah only guy left (and took 2 targets / 25% snaps last week).  

LATE ADDITIONS THU PM:    Randall Cobb +3900 FD / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U & David Bell +1200 / +14000 2+ DK (with Cooper news) 0.4U / 0.1U - late news took both.

I think CLE -7 & Njoku’s prop will move so getting it out now.  That’s pretty much it at 13U, light card but don’t see great value elsewhere.    Let’s get TNF rolling for WK17!

 

 

WEEK 16 FINAL

ATS/ML: 38-39-1, -2.6U (WK 16  - 3-4, -1.9U)

**PLAYER PROPS: 146-132, +133.7U** (WK 16 - 15-15, +2.7U)

**LONGSHOT TD: 34-239, +28.4U**  (WK 16 - 6-14, +17.7U, ;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950)

TOTAL - +159.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; 1246U stake so far)

 

WEEK 17 TNF RECAP

Well, the bad news first - no TD's hitting (and man, did the CLE guys and NYJ TE's have so many snaps, and Tillman with a clear TD he needed to just finish the route...oh well lol).    Cobb was the only guy who really never had a shot, everyone else was on the field with the ball inside the 10 at least 3-4x each...oh well, way it goes.   Other than scoring, can't ask for more, but it's 0-6, -3U for the TD props.

But otherwise it's a great night - CLE -7 easy W for +2U, never in doubt from halftime on, and we hit EVERY prop on Breece Hall & David Njoku.  NGL, I regret not having the 2nd alt line to win another 5U from both, but I won't complain with a +10.6U profit from Hall rush yds main / 1st alt line, +120 on O4.5 catches 2U & main / 1st alt line on Njoku rec yds.  And all of them hit by early-mid 3Q at latest.   So that's a sweat-free +9.6U to start WK17, we'll take it!
 

WEEK 17 TNF 

ATS/ML: 39-39-1, -0.6U (WK 17 TNF - 1-0, +2U)

**PLAYER PROPS: 146-132, +144.1U** (WK 17 TNF - 2-0, +10.4U - Mclaurin alt line cashout cost included)

**LONGSHOT TD: 34-245, +25.4U**  (WK 17 TNF - 0-6, -3U, ;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950)

TOTAL - +169.1U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; WK17 TNF - +9.6U; 1259U stake so far)

Edited December 30, 2023 by Broncofan
Mclaurin buyout of alt lines cost included

[SmittyBacall]

Breece Hall nails his full reception alt-line again. Let’s go.

[Broncofan]

OK for SUN's card I've filled in a few more alt lines that have come in.   Players who need alt lines to be posted - Bijan Robinson rec yd props,  Tommy Tremble rec yd props (looking at 3 alts), Noah Brown rec yd props, and Diontae Johnson alt lines props (and waiting on DEN with Jeudy and KC with Richie James).    Would like to add a couple of SNF props, but 1 to add so far:

NEW ADDED FRI AM Aaron Jones O51.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending @ MIN - he's clearly got his juice back, and on the fast dome track of MIN, it suits him even more.   MIN's a great pressure / coverage confusion D with DC Brian Flores, but vulnerability to big run plays is definitely there.   Worth the full alt lines once out.

There are still a LOT of teams without props out (DEN, LAC, JAX, MIN, etc.) - but other than the ones I've listed above, pretty much done on the prop side unless some outrageously low #'s get posted.    I'll look to add more TD plays, as there are even more games with either DK or FD (or both) not out yet.

[NYRaider]

@Broncofan picks were absolutely money tonight won me 3U

[Broncofan]

OK so only a couple of games don't have complete book release for TD's (LAC-DEN & SNF for FD), almost all the alt lines are up (late slate PIT-SEA, LAC-DEN and CIN / KC are still incomplete),  and we're starting to see some SNF props, so here goes another round of additions

WEEK 17 SNF PLAYER PROPS

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Aaron Jones O51.5 rush yds 2U, 66+ rush yds +210 1U & 84+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK @ MIN - Jones has his burst back, the MIN pressure D is prone to chunk run plays, and the fast track really suits Jones well here.  Easy alt line play.

Still would like to target a couple of Viking plays as well, not out yet.

 

WEEK 17 LONGSHOT TD ADDITIONS

 

EARLY

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Demario Douglas +500 / +7500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U & Kevin Harris +1000 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ BUF - going with the top target/weapon for NE, and the backup to Zeke, who does get spelled, as the O appears at least functional with Zappe at the helm.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Tommy Tremble +900 Score (+850 DK & Bodog) / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U  & Stephen Sullivan +1200 Score (+1100 everywhere else) / +13000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ JAX - Tremble soaks up the most targets, but Sullivan still gets looks, and frankly should have scored last week but for a Bryce Young underthrow.   Gotta take both with the bottom 5 Jags TE D.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Elijah Cooks +1500 / +20000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CAR - he was the 1H target / catch leader last week, and while Zay Jones may return, hammies usually take a while and players don't ramp up.  So there's opportunity here, at this price worth a half-stake play.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Daniel Bellinger +900 Score (+850 Bodog / FD) / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U & Lawrence Cager +2000 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. LAR - Cager is likely inactive (in which case the bets void), but I'm hedging both TE plays now with a hurting Waller and a bottom LAR TE D. 

LATE

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Richie James +600 / +11000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CIN -  Noah Gray is in the +400's now, which removes his value.   But James is definitely the emerging other target, and at that number, it's definitely worth a play.  Books are noticing, as he's below +400 almost everywhere else.

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Colby Parkinson +900 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. PIT - they keep offering lines this high, I have to keep taking it for Parkinson.   Hopefully 2 weeks in a row!

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Lucas Krull +1000 / +14000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. LAC - LAC's awful pass D would be 1 reason by itself, but Krull's clearly getting more looks.  Easy half-stake play.

 

SNF

Waiting to see FD odds (DK / Bodog / Score are out)

 

With the other plays (already posted) - that's 10U in 16 TD props (!!!) so far.    I also have my eyes on Donald Parham and a couple of Vikings (Packers odds aren't enticing, books have them right) but FD hasn't released yet, and I think we'll see better lines (worth waiting for IMO).   Likely we may be as high as 12U (although a couple of plays highly likely to void, we'll see).

 

That's a steep 12U for SAT & 70U so far for SUN, so I can say it's a pretty full card (linked below - on page 407).   Given how many plays are low-medium yards, it's either going to be very frustrating, or could be a massive ceiling day.   Let's hope for the latter (LOL) - BOL everyone!

 

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

my Stefanski bet is up to 36 units for the cash out wow lol.

[adamq]

2 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

my Stefanski bet is up to 36 units for the cash out wow lol.

I'd consider taking that... what if SF and Philly lose a game, Detroit wins out and is the 1 seed.. Campbell could get it

Edited December 29, 2023 by adamq

[adamq]

Mycole Pruitt +2100 FD.. He's seen an uptick in snaps the last couple weeks, Arthur smith loves to troll fantasy players so I expect a RZ target or two for Pruitt

[Broncofan]

NGL, my Terry McLaurin pick is SUPER iffy if Sam Howell has to play - as I posted, it was all based on Jacoby Brissett's affinity for Mclaurin.    With a shell-shocked Howell and that SF pass rush...ugh.    That was a completely out-of-the-blue injury issue.  Oh well, just grin and bear it if Howell plays.  

PS - although I think DEN -3 is one of the best value plays this week, can't deny the TD prop value with Donald Parham +1300 FD / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ DEN - the fact LAC has no WR's (Allen, Palmer & M-Williiams all out) is why I'm keeping it to a half-stake play.

Edited December 30, 2023 by Broncofan

[Tank4Drake]

Raiders and Packers ML are juicy… and Bucs -2.5. 

[Broncofan]

7 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

my Stefanski bet is up to 36 units for the cash out wow lol.

 

5 hours ago, adamq said:

I'd consider taking that... what if SF and Philly lose a game, Detroit wins out and is the 1 seed.. Campbell could get it

The reason you may want to take it:

1.   How much was the total again?   At some point, the difference may not matter.

2.  You've hedged with a couple of guys - but even then, it doesn't eliminate everyone if craziness happens.   It's not likely, but it's certainly not impossible.

3.  This is the most important point - you have to be honest with yourself on if you're OK if you lose.    The fact you keep mentioning the hedge amount means you're pretty invested in this W.   Would you be OK if you did lose and didn't take the hedge?

 

From a pure math point, you should never hedge.  But it's not all about math.   First, if it's life-changing $, or you can't emotionally afford to lose, then that matters.   Second, if losing will lead to an absolute tilt run (we've all been there), that matters.   

It's why I prefer to take bets have VERY clear hedges, or if the payout is massive with very little risk.   I don't dabble that much in the COTY/MVP markets because of that.     But maybe the above helps more, because it's you that has to live with the decision (and consequences) either way.

[Broncofan]

Well, some late slate props are out, and I have to dive back in (and I'm going to limit my risk with Terry Mclaurin, sorry guys on that call, never thought Brissett as starter was at risk), and along with the Parham TD play, I'll add 2 late game plays while still waiting for Richie James, and retract on my risk with Terry Mclaurin given the QB news that Brissett isn't confirmed due to a new hammy injury:

EARLY

NEW ADJUSTED TO MAIN LINE ONLY FRI PM - Terry Mclaurin O51.5 rec yds 2U DK,  80+ rec yds +300 1U, 110+ rec yds +900 0.5U vs. SF - with vet Jacoby Brissett in, we know he loves targeting Mclaurin, and that's what SF is vulnerable to (chunk plays), so I'm happy to take this & alt lines.  EDIT FRI PM:   Alt lines cashed out with 10% loss, no way I would have taken this if there was any chance Sam Howell could be QB, and if I don't cash out now, the opp may go away if lines change.  Sorry guys, my bad.

LATE

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Jerry Jeudy O43.5 rec yds 2U, 59+ rec yds +210 1U, 79+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 100+ rec yds +1100 0.5U DK vs. LAC - no Courtland Sutton, and no Russell Wilson...sounds bad, right?   Well, as a Bronco fan I see it the other way - Wilson's inability to throw slants and middle of field are exactly where Jeudy wins that others don't.    Chargers can't cover him - he would have had a massive day 3 weeks ago at SoFi, but Wilson missed a walk in TD (that Jeudy compounded by dropping at the sideline, but beaten 10+ yards away from sidelines and >5 yards past defender, both to blame) and another 2 passes that they missed on big plays (chunk & TD catch, last one on Jeudy not getting 2nd foot down).   This sets up much like last year's season ending 6-150-2 WK18 finale vs. LAC.   Gotta take the 4U 3-alt line play.   Which brings me to...

 

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Ja'Marr Chase O58.5 rec yds 2U, 78+ rec yds +210 1U, 98+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 120+ rec yds +900 0.5U @ KC - I was totally set on staying away.   Then I just saw the report that L'Jarius Sneed, KC's all world shadow CB, has missed every practice with a calf injury.   Make no mistake, Sneed is head and shoulders above the other CB's.   Chase has gone out of his way to say the KC pass D is made up of average players - so he's going to look to back this up.   Without Sneed this is a volume and plus matchup spot.  Obv I wish Burrow was slinging it - but much like his game against JAX, the books are hedging on his shoulder injury, and KC's D - to give us a really depressed scoring line.   Burrow plays, Chase is healthy - this line is literally 20+ yards higher.   So yeah, saddle up, I'm going full 3-alt lines here like vs. JAX.    

 

Still waiting on Richie James props, pretty much it.   So that's 57U in 17 player props (!!!) so far, and in all likelihood it's going to be 60.5U with 18 player props for SUN's day slate if Richie James gets added.   I am looking at 1-2 more SNF plays as well, but they're not out yet.   GULP. 

That's a steep 15U for SAT & 77U so far for SUN, so I can say it's a pretty full card (LOL).   NGL this # of TD props and yardage props feels insane - but then I remember that we have 14 games on SUN (and when we have byes and TNF/MNF plus Sat games, it's as low as 10 games on a SUN).   So the increased number of plays makes sense.    Having said that - PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE if there's a week where everyone stays healthy, this is it.  Given how many plays are low-medium yards, it's either going to be very frustrating, or could be a massive ceiling day.    Let's hope for the latter (LOL) - BOL everyone!

 

WEEK 17 FULL CARD LINK:

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Broncofan