Broncofan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: Ahhh this love affair is never ending and I'm here for it. How do you feel about Shaheed longest reception over 18.5? Or the milestones at 30 yards +300, 40 yards +700, even 50 yards +1400? Feels like with a guy like Shaheed, it's go big or go home. I feel like you can go 30 or 40 and pass on 18.5. Carr is so bad I’d kick myself if his underthrow cost the 50 but a 30-40 prop seems like best value. Can’t argue a sprinkle at +1400. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) A couple more additions to SUN daytime slate… NEW ADDED FRI AM - Saquon Barkley O59.5 rush yds 2U / 80+ rush yds +210 / 110+ rush yds +700 0.5U DK vs. PHI - PHI run D fallen apart badly in last 4 weeks. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Hunter Henry +700 / +11000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NYJ & Tyler Conklin +700 / +12000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U @NE - both the primary middle RZ targets vs D that take away the WR. It also doesn't look like there are many 2nd alt lines coming out, so I've taken alt lines for all the SUN player props posted except for DJ Moore (the SNF and SAT cards have been filled alt-line wise as well). BOL! Edited January 5 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 19 hours ago, Broncofan said: Slayton got increased to 46.5 so that’s a pass. I'm slotting in Jalin Hyatt over 19.5 receiving yards. Plus milestones at 50 yards +500, and 75 yards +1500. For the same reasons we play Slayton. Giants eliminated, last game of the year, maybe they'll want to see what they have in the young man. Will also eye Daniel Bellinger at anything around 15 yards, but those lines have yet to be released. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: I'm slotting in Jalin Hyatt over 19.5 receiving yards. Plus milestones at 50 yards +500, and 75 yards +1500. For the same reasons we play Slayton. Giants eliminated, last game of the year, maybe they'll want to see what they have in the young man. Will also eye Daniel Bellinger at anything around 15 yards, but those lines have yet to be released. Hyatt’s snap counts got up to 77 percent and he got 4 targets. Its definitely worth it at that number. Adding Jalin Hyatt O19.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +310 1U, 60+ rec yds +1000 DK 0.5U vs. PHI as a WK18 YOLO play. Edited January 5 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaddHatter Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 What app are you guys using for these prop bets? I'm using Caesars sports book app and not getting the prop bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 35 minutes ago, MaddHatter said: What app are you guys using for these prop bets? I'm using Caesars sports book app and not getting the prop bets DK & B365 are by far the best books for props. FD is the other book that comes out with TD props that are wide from other books, and Bodog (Bovada) often has 2+ TD props that are also wider. B365 isn't available in a lot of US states, DK should be. MGM & Caesars & BetRivers are books that sometimes have crazy lines, but by and large they have much worse lines, and rarely or don't have alt lines. Alt lines are where the value really hits, as most bettors can't do better than 55% on a consistent basis, so hitting the alt lines adds a ton of value (as when you go over the main line, hitting alt lines multiplies the value). FWIW the bet cards list the book (the issue being the lines can move and often do which is why taking it early usually gains a lot of CLV). Edited January 5 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) Andrew Wiggins 15+ points +165, 20+ points +650 I had klay last night, 20+ at +320 and 25+ at +800. He scored 24 🤣 woof what a disaster.. even off the bench Wiggins had been getting a lot of minutes, so on the back end of a back to back I figured he'd take the reins a bit.. whoops. 3 points Edited January 6 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 DK has a new progressive parlay bet option and it's pretty interesting. You can hit all or just miss two to three picks and you will get some money either way or your whole wager back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 For Sunday I added Kendre Miller +400 1.2U DK (will add 0.3U 2+ TD once our) vs. ATLANTA & Lucas Krull +900 FD 0.4U (will take 0.1U 2+ once out) @ LV - Alvin Kamara is a GTD but sure looked like a HAS. Miller TD equity at +400 insane. Krull you know the deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) Really like Downs tonight, and his alt yardage on DK is pretty juicy compared to FD. Houston has given up some big games vs the slot, and I think they also go up early so Indy will be on their heels, passing often... Well I was wrong and right. He did hit his over, but no alts. Overestimated Minshew and underestimated how effective the IND run game would be Edited January 7 by adamq 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 (edited) On 1/4/2024 at 12:00 PM, Broncofan said: OK so we have props for SAT's 2 games, still a pretty limited number, so let's dive in... WEEK 18 SAT SLATE ATS/ML HOU ML - with CJ Stroud back, I have to back the better QB. HOU's pass D is definitely vulnerable, but their run D has been top 10, and while their pass D is vulnerable, that lack of balance will have the D able to capitalize on 3+ sacks and 2-4 TO worthy plays from Minshew (not all TO-worthy plays translate to TO's, though, but give me 1-2 TO's). Disclaimer - I have HOU +500 to win the division, so I may be biased here (and yes, I'll be a huge TEN fan on SUN if this works out on SAT lol). No idea on how PIT-BAL works out with BAL resting a lot of guys (Lamar already confirmed), but BAL being the far more talented team depth-wise. PLAYER PROPS Nico Collins O70.5 rec yds TheScore 2U (DK - 140, FD 71.5), O5.5 recs +120 2U @ HOU - IND's still vulnerable to the #1 boundary WR. The line is a little higher than I'd like at O70.5 DK (071.5 FD) to get value on the alt lines, so I'm going with the catch # in addition to the main line, as Collins has soaked up 8+ targets a game since Tank Dell got hurt in every game CJ Stroud has played, and has the plus matchup. 100+ rec yds is "only" +260, so I'd rather just go for catches & yards at the main line, and see if I can make my 4U+ profit there this week. Devin Singletary O9.5 rec yds FD (Now 11.5; DK - 12.5) 2U, 25+ rec yds DK +240 1U, 40+ rec yds +600 DK 0.5U @ IND - I literally must have got this at opening, because 30 mins later it's already at 11.5. IND's great in the slot with Kenny Moore, and their TE coverage is excellent - so while I expect Nico will thrive in the X, the other funnel pass area is the RB - IND gives up 37 yards a game to RB's, and it's clear when HOU has trouble getting the ball to 2+ WR's, they then use Singletary (look at all the HOU games where they aren't gettin 200+ yards to WR's - Singletary's numbers go up). Diontae Johnson O37.5 rec yds 2U DK (now 38.5, FD - same), 60+ rec yds +250 1U, 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK @ BAL - while I don't know the outcome, I do know that BAL's rush D is unlikely to suddenly turn into a sieve. And while their D is great, they're still vulnerable to the WR & RB. At these #'s, it's easy to back the WR's for alt lines. George Pickens O50.5 rec yds 2U DK (FD - 52.5), 70+ rec yds +225 1U, 100+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK @ BAL - everything I said about Diontae applies to Pickens. Rather than guess who will have the better matchup, I'll take both this week. I'm pretty confident if Marlon Humphrey (just returned from injury) sits, both WR's will likely easily pass their main lines. Mason Rudolph O1.5 pass TD's +200 1U FD, O2.5 pass TD's +750 FD 0.5U - NGL, I'll absolutely regret this if John Harbaugh plays his pass rushers & Marlon Humpherey, but I truly believe that they will sit. The BAL run D is still very good with their depth, so if I believe in the pass game with the RB's & WR's, this is just too good of value to pass up. Still, as it's so volatile (you can get DPI's to the 1, and then have 2-3 rush TD's), it's only a 1.5U play. There's only 1-2 more props I'm interested in for SAT, not posted yet. So far that's likely 16U on 5 plays for SAT. LONGSHOT TD Nelson Agholor +1000 FD (already down to +700, DK not posted) / +12000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U vs. PIT - I was shocked to see this line open this high, as Zay Flowers is likely to sit, and while OBJ is likely to get some run, once he's past 5+ catches, he'll sit as well, and I suspect Rashod Bateman may sit too - those 3 are all above Agholor in the pecking order. We could easily see a game where Agholor is the #1 guy this week, and he's clearly the 4th most important WR on the team (so not so worried to sit him altogether, although anything is possible). I'm NOT surprised the line dropped to +700 less than 30 mins later - but that also allowed me to get the 2+ TD at a line Bodog will only match. If DK is better, I shrug and tip my cap, but I think this got in at the top of the value chart. DK doesn't have PIT-BAL yet, so I may add a couple more. But for now, that's likely 18U committed to SAT. It's a little scary to be committing that to HOU & PIT alone, but I know they're going all out and I feel good about the props as the volume/matchup/gamescript should all be there (IND I know will too, but the value in the lines aren't there IMO). WEEK 17 FINAL ATS/ML: 44-40-1, +4.5U (WK 17 FINAL - 6-1, +7.1U) PLAYER PROPS: 153-142, +131.7U (WK 17 FINAL - 11-15, -2U) - adjusted with Mclaurin alt line cashout LONGSHOT TD: 39-259, +46.4U (WK 17 FINAL - 5-18, +18.2U), ; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950; WK17 - J-Johnson +550, J-Browning +1100, C-Kolar +1500, J-Love +950 & J-Mundt +1100) TOTAL - +182.6U (WK1: +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U; WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; WK17 - +23.3U; 1348U stake so far) Well that was tough sledding for most of the PIT-BAL game and tough to watch Singletary not get targeted all game long but it’s still a profitable WK18 SAT… WEEK 18 SAT RECAP ATS/ML - 1-0, +1U - easy money, no sweat. OK, some sweating lol. Even better a TEN W and my HOU AFCS +500 cashes. Let’s go Titans! PLAYER PROPS - 2-3, +3.4U - well Singletary & Pickens weren’t close. Mason Rudolph had chances but weather really hurt. Just glad I hit Diontae Johnson & Nico Collins all lines for the profit even being 2-3. LONGSHOT TD - 0-1, -1U - no regrets on Agholor he was their top WR just not meant to be. So that’s +3.4U for SAT - hoping we can keep it rolling for SUN! —————- WEEK 18 SAT FINAL ATS/ML: 45-40-1, +5.5U (WK 18 SAT - 1-0, +1U) PLAYER PROPS: 155-145, +135.1U (WK 18 SAT - 2-3, +3.4U) LONGSHOT TD: 39-260, +45.4U (WK 18 SAT- 0-1, -1U), ; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950; WK17 - J-Johnson +550, J-Browning +1100, C-Kolar +1500, J-Love +950 & J-Mundt +1100) TOTAL - +186.0U (WK1: +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U; WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; WK17 - +23.3U; WK18 SAT - +3.4U; 1366U stake so far) Edited January 7 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 (edited) OK a few late additions: WEEK 18 SUN PLAYER PROP ADDITIONS NEW ADDED SAT PM - Calvin Ridley O48.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ rec yds +250 1U, 100+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK @ TEN - with Christian Kirk back, I'm willing to take a chance on a gimpy T-Lawrence or a bad CJ Beathard against the beatable TEN secondary. NEW ADDED SAT PM - Tucker Kraft O28.5 rec yds FD, 50+ rec yds +270 1U FD, 70+ rec yds +600 0.5U FD vs. CHI (will wait on DK lines) - CHI's pass D is legit, but what they often do is give up the safety valve play, and keep the ball in front of them. That's Kraft all day. With no Luke Musgrave in the picture, this an easy number to attack. FD's lines seem OK, but I'm willing to see what DK posts tomorrow, with Jayden Reed & Romeo Doubs & Dontayvion Wicks all confirmed back, and perhaps Christian Watson Q but no practices this week). EDIT SUN AM: With the activation of Luke Musgrave, have to hold off here. I really would like to see props (and alt lines) posted on Juwan Johnson (thinking low 20's again given it's not out yet) & Tommy Tremble (thinking very low teens again), if that's the case, will definitely go main & alt lines again. DJ Moore's alt line value went poof as his main prop is now up near the 70+ range, so just going with the O65.5 main line. WEEK 18 SUN LONGSHOT TD ADDITIONS NEW ADDED SAT PM - Harrison Bryant +700 / +11000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U & Jeff Driskel +900 / +14000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CIN - we know the Browns are resting Joe Flacco and they've already said they'll rest a bunch of starters, so that means Bryant becomes the top TE vs. the CIN leaky TE D, and we have a mobile QB in a spot start, so that always makes Driskel worth a play at those #'s. NEW ADDED SUN AM - Colby Parkinson +700 TheScore (+600 FD) / +9000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U @ ARI - you know the deal here as well. Along with the additions I made earlier today (Kendre Miller & Lucas Krull TD), that gets me to 26.5U in 8 player props, and 9.5U in TD props. I'd really like to see Juwan Johnson & Tommy Tremble rec yd props, but I think that just about does it (I still have to fill in a bunch of 2-TD props that aren't out, but I figure they'll be out by the time inactives are confirmed). SUN card updated on page 412, linked below: Edited January 7 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I think ATL lays a giant egg today. Smith is a goner imo, and I don't see his players fighting hard for that dude. NO should roll Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 (edited) Well the books didn’t release Tremble or Juwan props. Sigh. So I’m going with my next 2 early & 2 late slate plays: NEW ADDED SUN NOON - DJ Chark O35.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +300 1U, 80+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK vs. TAM - top receiver vs. pass funnel TAM D. NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Kyle Pitts O28.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +290 1U, 70+ rec yds +800 0.5U @ NO - Ridder makes me nervous but as I believe ATL will have to chase as much as I had London I also had Pitts at this #. NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Jerry Jeudy O35.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +300, 90+ rec yds +1100 0.5U @ LV - trail scenario and low main line. NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Aaron Jones O19.5 rec yds, 40+ rec yds +285 1U, 60+ rec yds +800 0.5U vs. CHI - Bears run D legit but pass funnel to RB’s That increases my Player props to 40.5U over 12 plays and 9.5U in TD plays for the daytime slate. That will do it unless Juwan / Tremble get added (doubtful) BOL everyone! Edited January 7 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 (edited) On pointsbet, you can sprinkle some on Pitts 80+ at +1200, and Chark is.. 50+ +230 65+ +500 80+ +1200 Edit- I really, really hate these people at PB. I go to place a bet and they decline it and lower the odds 10% across the board on these two players. Edited January 7 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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