Travis Kelce vs George Kittle

[Forge]

1 hour ago, Hiccups said:

Kelce may play in a pass first offense, but Kelce isn't the number one read and isn't the number one receiver (his number this year may look like he is the number one receiver but Hill is the number one.) I haven't watched much of the 49ers games but Kittle seems to be your number one read and number one receiver. 

Kelce has led the Chiefs in targets every year since 2016. 

Kelce averaged a full target more per game (to adjust for the games that Hill missed this year). Hill averaged 7.42 per game, Kelce 8.5. Hill's target share when playing this year was 21.9%. Kelce's was 23.3% (actually think it was over 24% when you account for the snaps he wasn't on the field for, but I digress). 

[Hiccups]

13 minutes ago, jonnguy2015 said:

So I looked it up, and here are their target/reception stats:
2018: Kelce 103/150(68.7%), Kittle 88/136(64.7%)
2019(slightly skewed due to Kittle missing two games): Kelce 97/136(71.3%), Kittle 85/107(79.4%)

So Kelce actually did have more targets and receptions than Kittle both years. Plus, Kittle being the dominant receiver on the team last year may have allowed him to accumulate volume stats, but it also allowed teams to double team or even triple team him, something you can't do when there's also Tyreek Hill to worry about, so it works both ways.

Okay fair enough. Can you give me the stat in 2018 and 2019 of when Kelce was double teamed and Kittle was double team please? Kelce has been drawing a double team since 2017 at least.

2018 Kelce had 25.8% of the passes to him and Kittle had 25.5% passed to him. Kelce with 4% haigher catch rate than Kittle.

2019. Kelce had 23.6% passes to him and Kittle had 21.4% passed to him (Kittle missed 2 games.) Kittle had 8.1% catch rate but like you said missing 2 games skews it.

 

[Hiccups]

17 minutes ago, Forge said:

Kittle 2018 target percentage was 25.6%. (136 targets in 532 attempts) 

Kelce's 2018 target percentage was 25.7%. (150 targets in 583 attempts)

So yeah, that "Kittle was force fed the ball" thing during 2018 probably isn't going to work. 

What is the % of the other receivers/running backs %? 

[Forge]

10 minutes ago, Hiccups said:

What is the % of the other receivers/running backs %? 

I'm going to guess 74.4 and 74.3% because you can't have more than 100% target share? 

I'm going to assume what you are asking is if the 49ers had another target monster like the Chiefs have in Hill? That answer would be no, but it also is irrelevant because the target share that each consumes was roughly the same last year (Kelce slightly higher). Just because you have another guy who collects target doesn't change the target share of Kelce or somehow make it less true. The Chiefs throw the ball a lot more (over 50 more attempts in 2018, so there were obviously more targets going around). The 49ers also didn't have a single receiver start more than 8 games and had 0 receivers who played 60% of the offensive snaps, but had 6 who played at least 30% while the Chiefs only had 4. That's typically going to thin the targets. 

You stated that Kittle was force fed the ball during his record breaking year. But if he was force fed the ball, so was Kelce because their rates were nearly identical. Kittle's target share isn't somehow greater than the actual number just because the rest of the receivers were no good. Each tight end was thrown to with the same level of frequency when the quarterbacks threw a pass. 

[Hiccups]

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

I'm going to guess 74.4 and 74.3% because you can't have more than 100% target share? 

I'm going to assume what you are asking is if the 49ers had another target monster like the Chiefs have in Hill? That answer would be no, but it also is irrelevant because the target share that each consumes was roughly the same last year (Kelce slightly higher). Just because you have another guy who collects target doesn't change the target share of Kelce or somehow make it less true. The Chiefs throw the ball a lot more (over 50 more attempts in 2018, so there were obviously more targets going around). The 49ers also didn't have a single receiver start more than 8 games and had 0 receivers who played 60% of the offensive snaps, but had 6 who played at least 30% while the Chiefs only had 4. That's typically going to thin the targets. 

You stated that Kittle was force fed the ball during his record breaking year. But if he was force fed the ball, so was Kelce because their rates were nearly identical. Kittle's target share isn't somehow greater than the actual number just because the rest of the receivers were no good. Each tight end was thrown to with the same level of frequency when the quarterbacks threw a pass. 

I was wanting to know everyone % you are right. Since you didn't give me that and stated that you didn't have another player to take the load off of Kittle means Kittle was forced the ball. 

Kelce 25.7%  Hill 23.4% Watkins 9.4% Conley 8.9% out of 583 passes in 2018

Kelce 16/16/16 Hill 16/16/16 Watkins 9/10/16 Conley 13/16/16 Games started/Games Played/Total Games in 2018

Kittle 25.5% Bourne 12.4% Garcon 8.6%  Pettis 8.4% out of 532 passes in 2018

Kittle 16/16/16/ Bourne 8/16/16 Garcon 8/8/16 Pettis 7/12/16 Games started/Games Played/Total Games in 2018

Kelce 23.6% Watkins 15.6% Hill 15.4% Robinson 9.5% out of 576 passes in 2019

Kelce 16/16/16 Watkins 13/14/16 Hill 12/12/16 Robinson 10/16/16 Games started/Games Played/Total Games in 2019

Kittle 22.3% Samuel 18.2% Saunders 11% Bourne 9.2% out of 478 passes in 2019

Kittle 14/14/16 Samuel 11/15/16 Saunders 9/10/10 Bourne 0?/16/16 Games started/Games Played/Total Games in 2019

 

Chiefs are a pass first offense and the 49ers are a run first offense. Looks like to me Kittle is feed the ball more than Kelce.

[Forge]

18 minutes ago, Hiccups said:

Chiefs are a pass first offense and the 49ers are a run first offense. Looks like to me Kittle is feed the ball more than Kelce.

I have no idea how you see that.

In 2018, their Target share was nearly identical (in 2019, Kittles is much higher). 

But kittle was given the ball at the same rate as Kelce in 2018. If he was force fed, so was Kelce. It legitimately makes no sense to deny that when it's simple percentages 

[Hiccups]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

I gave you props for your well reasoned post and acknowledged it was valid and sound reasoning. I even gave you your first like! 

No, he's not. 

That's never been my reasoning as to why kittle is a better receiver. He's a better receiver because he's more dynamic. He's faster. He's better after the catch. He's a better route runner because he's a quick twitch athlete. He has better hands. 

I said it a you pages ago but your new here so I'll say it again. Kelce is a damn good football player. Stating kittle is better is not a knock on Kelce by any stretch of the imagination. Kelce is a smooth athlete and looks like he glides when he moves. He is very good at finding holes and zone and space over the middle. He's more in the mold of a traditional tight end in that sense. He is a very fluid athlete, no doubt about it, especially for his size and length. 

I agree with the notion that these two guys are head and shoulders above everyone else at the position. No arguments there! 

The difference between they're blocking abilities is greater than the difference between their receiving abilities. That tips to scale in favor of the guy who is better blocker. 

I am actually not a new poster. I am from the old board before we moved to this one. I just chose to be a reader.

Is Kittle a better receiver? Kelce is just as dynamic so that moot. Faster? I'll prolly give that to you b/c he is younger but Kelce isn't slow. Better route runner b/c he is a quick twitch athlete????? That has nothing to do with route running. Kelce has all the route trees ran to perfection. So Kittle doesn't have him beat there. Better hands? Yeh. I feel like you have been watching more of the playoffs where he has been starting slow and dropping those 3rd down passes.

I agree with you that they are 1a and 1b TE and the 3rd is a pretty big gap.

Everyone wants to knock Kelce on his blocking. KC is a pass offense. We don't run the ball but he is still a top 3 blocker. We just don't use him as a blocker but if you look at all the screen plays that KC uses as a run play Kelce is one of the main blockers or the jet sweeps. We use those as run plays.

[Hiccups]

49 minutes ago, Forge said:

I have no idea how you see that.

In 2018, their Target share was nearly identical (in 2019, Kittles is much higher). 

But kittle was given the ball at the same rate as Kelce in 2018. If he was force fed, so was Kelce. 

In 2018, Kelce wasn't the threat. Kittle was the only threat.

Kelce 103/150 Hill 87/137 Watkins 40/55 Conley 32/52 Passes Caught/Passed too 2018

Kittle 88/136 Bourne 42/66 Garcon 24/46 Pettis 27/45 478 Passes Caught/Passed too 2018 

Kittle has 77 targets over Bourne. Kelce has 12 targets over Hill.

Kelce 97/136 Watkins 52/90 Hill 58/98 Robinson 32/55 Passes Caught/Passed too 2019

Kittle 85/107 Samuel 57/81 Samuel 36/53 Bourne 30/40 Passes Caught/Passed too 2019

Kittle* has 26 targets over Samuel. Kelce has 46 over Watkins

*Kittle missed 2 games

 

So how did Kittle not get feed the ball in 2018? He had 77 more targets than the next receiver. Where Kelce had 12 more targets than the next receiver.

 

Remember Chiefs are a Pass first and 49ers are a run first. Thats what everyone wants to say in this thread.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Hiccups

[Kirill]

5 hours ago, N4L said:

YAC yardage lies for running backs who get 11 yard dump offs on 3rd and 16. 

YAC yardage for TEs doesn't lie. Kittle is one of the hardest players in the league to tackle when he has the ball in his hands. 

Go watch some highlights you chump. Maybe you'll learn something 

I've seen both play many times. Kelce is better. Kelce has a chance at breaking every major TE record and going down as the GOAT when it's all said and done. Kittle has none.

[Kirill]

My guess is (and remember, I'm always right) once Kittle starts getting in the ballpark of where Kelce is now with total yards and TD's, his body will start breaking down and he'll be a less impactful player, like with what happened to Jimmy Graham. If you look at the 5 greatest TE's of all time (Gonzalez, Gronk, Gates, Kelce, Sharpe), they all have a very similar body type.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Kirill

[Forge]

8 hours ago, Hiccups said:

 

So how did Kittle not get feed the ball in 2018? He had 77 more targets than the next receiver. Where Kelce had 12 more targets than the next receiver.

 

I legitimately weep for the world of tomorrow. 

They were given the ball at the same rate. The other players have nothing to do with it. This is how it works, I'll break it down simply. Each team throws the ball 100 times

Team 1 throws the ball like this 

• Player A - 50 times
• Player B - 40 times
• Player C - 10 times

Team 2 throws the ball like this

• Player A - 50 times
• Player B - 15 times
• Player C - 10 times
• Player D - 10 times
• Player E - 8 times
• Player F - 7 times

What you are trying to say is that player A on team 2 got force fed the ball while player A on team one did not, even though  they were given the ball at the same rate (50% of the time). 

Put another way, there are two pies. You eat half of one pie, while I eat half of the other pie. If the rest of your pie is eaten by only 2 people, and the rest of my pie is eaten by 6 people, there's no change in the amount of pie you or I ate, we both ate half the damn thing. 

So I don't know if you're being intentionally obtuse in that regard or not. 

8 hours ago, Hiccups said:

Remember Chiefs are a Pass first and 49ers are a run first. Thats what everyone wants to say in this thread.

Funny you should mention that. The chiefs ran fewer total offensive plays in 2018 than the 49ers did and gave the ball to Kelce more than the 49ers gave it to Kittle. 

But hey, it was definitely Kittle who was force fed the ball. 

[Hiccups]

3 hours ago, Forge said:

I legitimately weep for the world of tomorrow. 

They were given the ball at the same rate. The other players have nothing to do with it. This is how it works, I'll break it down simply. Each team throws the ball 100 times

Team 1 throws the ball like this 

• Player A - 50 times
• Player B - 40 times
• Player C - 10 times

Team 2 throws the ball like this

• Player A - 50 times
• Player B - 15 times
• Player C - 10 times
• Player D - 10 times
• Player E - 8 times
• Player F - 7 times

What you are trying to say is that player A on team 2 got force fed the ball while player A on team one did not, even though  they were given the ball at the same rate (50% of the time). 

Put another way, there are two pies. You eat half of one pie, while I eat half of the other pie. If the rest of your pie is eaten by only 2 people, and the rest of my pie is eaten by 6 people, there's no change in the amount of pie you or I ate, we both ate half the damn thing. 

So I don't know if you're being intentionally obtuse in that regard or not. 

Funny you should mention that. The chiefs ran fewer total offensive plays in 2018 than the 49ers did and gave the ball to Kelce more than the 49ers gave it to Kittle. 

But hey, it was definitely Kittle who was force fed the ball. 

Team A - 452 Targets

150 - 33.1%

137 - 30.3%

55 - 12.1

52 - 11.5%

33 - 7.3%

25 - 5.5%

Team B - 377 Targets

136 - 36%

66 -17.5%

46 - 12.2%

45 - 11.9%

43 - 11.4 %

41 - 10.8%

Team A is the Chiefs top 6 WR/TE targets. Team B is top 6 WR/TE 49ers targets.

 

Kelce and Kittle are both at the top in targets but if you see Kittle gets a the biggest part of the pie in his Offense. Just b/c they have around the same % in targets doesn't mean much. Chiefs threw the ball 75 time more to the WR/TE.

 

If we just go with the top 4 players. Kittle gets 46.4% of the targets and Kelce gets 38% of the targets. 

 

Your pie chart actually helps me prove that he gets more of the pie. Thanks.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Hiccups

[lolsurebro]

I love how everyone constantly divulges statistics to make arguments like these.

Kelce is stacked with clutch plays when it counts the most, and that's why he gets my vote.

[Forge]

1 hour ago, Hiccups said:

Team A - 452 Targets

150 - 33.1%

137 - 30.3%

55 - 12.1

52 - 11.5%

33 - 7.3%

25 - 5.5%

Team B - 377 Targets

136 - 36%

66 -17.5%

46 - 12.2%

45 - 11.9%

43 - 11.4 %

41 - 10.8%

Team A is the Chiefs top 6 WR/TE targets. Team B is top 6 WR/TE 49ers targets.

 

Kelce and Kittle are both at the top in targets but if you see Kittle gets a the biggest part of the pie in his Offense. Just b/c they have around the same % in targets doesn't mean much. Chiefs threw the ball 75 time more to the WR/TE.

 

If we just go with the top 4 players. Kittle gets 46.4% of the targets and Kelce gets 38% of the targets. 

 

Your pie chart actually helps me prove that he gets more of the pie. Thanks.

Wow. Just no words. So bad.  Yeah, I'm just out on this end of the conversation. 

[Forge]

48 minutes ago, lolsurebro said:

I love how everyone constantly divulges statistics to make arguments like these.

Kelce is stacked with clutch plays when it counts the most, and that's why he gets my vote.

Well, you know, statistics matter and can absolutely show facts (especially in an allegation that can be proven or not on a statistical level). 

But the thing is, I don't much care if anyone picks Kittle, or Kelce or whomever. If someone said, "I think Kelce is better" and left it at that, I'd have no problem with it whatsoever. But some of these arguments are laughably bad or just flat out erroneous. I don't think that there's a right or wrong answer here in the end.