Jump to content

The Short Term Playoff Push Quinn/Patricia Offseason (Mock)


TL-TwoWinsAway

Recommended Posts

The Lions are entering the crucial 3rd year of the Patricia regime, and expectations have been spelled out quite clearly by the ownership group: compete for a playoff spot or you'll find yourself out of a job. Although I disagree with this approach, I feel that the following moves would allow Quinn/Patricia to save their jobs while also avoiding potential pitfalls and headaches. (Note: this isn't necessarily what I'd prefer be done long term, but what I feel appears possible considering all current factors.)

Offseason/Free Agency

Task #1: Trade Darius Slay ($13.4M 2020 cap hit, holdout risk)

I love Big Play Slay... I'm a huge fan of his. He's an absolute stud, and I'd prefer to keep him. There are two factors that convince me that his time in Detroit is over: 1) his contract demands, and 2) his dislike of the Patricia regime. Unfortunately, these factors also diminish his trade value, as his contract demands and open disagreement with the organization make him both expensive and potentially available. The Lions refused to deal him last year, but his compensation may be of more value to the team in 2020 than his presence.

The Detroit Lions trade Darius Slay to the Atlanta Falcons for a 2020 2nd Round Pick (#47) and Devonta Freeman, RB ($9.5M 2020 cap hit).

I believe a mid 2nd Round Pick is right where Slay's trade value lies at this point in time (for the reasons mentioned above), and the Lions get that value while also acquiring a RB that they had their eyes on during the 2019 trade deadline. Freeman remains a dangerous pass-catching RB, something Stafford utilizes well, while a committee approach with Kerryon Johnson seemingly suits both of them well. Bo Scarbrough remains on the roster as the #3 RB.

Task #2: Re-sign Taylor Decker (short term, $6M per) and Graham Glasgow (long term, $7M per)

In my opinion, it's imperative that we lock Glasgow down with a quality 5 year contract. Graham has been nothing short of an effective, hard-working and versatile commodity since arriving in Detroit in 2016, and he finally receives a contract that reflects his value to the team. Decker has had far more ups and downs during his time in Detroit, but the team does not want to enter 2020 with three holes to fill up front. He signs a short term deal, eager to prove that he's deserving of higher tier LT money.

Task #3: Release Rick Wagner ($6.1M cap savings)

Although a decent player, it's clear that Wagner never lived up to the girthy contract he signed in 2017. The Lions make a statement thanking him for his years of hard work before sending him off. Tyrell Crosby ($731k 2020 cap hit), who appeared capable during his five starts in 2020, takes over at RT, and solid veteran RT is brought in to compete for that spot.

Task #4: Re-sign Danny Amendola (one year, $4.25M)

The bromance between Amendola and Quinn/Patricia is undeniable: he's a guy that just does everything that they want, and does it all right. Not overly explosive, Amendola is a more than capable slot receiver, and joins Hockenson and Freeman as Stafford's short yardage targets.

Other re-signings of note: A'Shawn Robinson, Rashaan Melvin, Sam Martin, Logan Thomas, Tavon Wilson, Mike Ford, and, of course, Don Freakin' Muhlbach.

2020 NFL Draft

Pick 1.3: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State

Yes, this is a step back from Slay: regardless of how quickly Okudah adapts to the NFL game, it's still extremely unrealistic to expect him to have the same impact as Big Play. It still gives us a great CB prospect that'll buy into the coaching staff, and at a much lesser cap hit. Justin Coleman, Rashaan Melvin, Amani Oruwarlye, Mike Ford and Jamal Agnew round out the CBs.

*** The Lions trade the Falcons' 2020 2nd Round Pick (2.15) and 2020 4th Round Pick (4.3) to the New Orleans Saints for their 2020 1st Round pick (1.30). *** 

Pick 1.30: K'Lavon Chiasson, Edge, LSU

The Lions move back into the first round and add a quality pass-rusher in Chiasson, who slots across from Trey Flowers and gives the Lions a dangerous looking defensive line of Chiasson - Harrison - Robinson - Flowers, with Hand and Bryant rotating.

Pick 2.3: Creed Humphrey, OG, Oklahoma

With their early 2nd Round Pick, the Lions look to cement their interior offensive line as one of the best in the NFL. Humphrey joins Glasgow and Ragnow as a top-tier group of young, talented and versatile linemen.

Pick 3.3: Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Michigan

With their 3rd Round Pick, the Lions add a playmaker at WR in Peoples-Jones. Marvin Jones, 29, is entering the last year of his contract with a $9.1M cap him. Now is the time to groom his potential replacement, and Peoples-Jones joins Golladay, Jones, Amendola, and Lacy on the depth chart.

Picks in rounds 5-7: BPA, with an emphasis on OLB, DT and S.

2020 Depth Chart

WR: Kenny Golladay, Chris Lacy
TE: Logan Thomas
LT: Taylor Decker
LG: Creed Humphrey, Oday Aboushi
C: Frank Ragnow, Beau Benzschawel
RG: Graham Glasgow
RT: Tyrell Crosby/Veteran FA
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Jesse James
SWR: Danny Amendola
WR: Marvin Jones, Peoples-Jones 
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Devonta Freeman, Kerryon Johnson, Bo Scarbrough

DE: Trey Flowers, Austin Bryant
DT: Damon Harrison Sr, Da'Shawn Hand
DT: A'Shawn Robinson, John Atkins
DE: K'Lavon Chiasson, Romeo Okwara
OLB: Devon Kennard, Christian Jones
MLB: Jahlani Tavai, Steve Longa
OLB: Jarrad Davis, Jalen Reeves-Maybin
CB: Jeff Okudah, Amani Oruwarlye
CB: Justin Coleman, Rashaan Melvin, Jamal Agnew
SS: Will Harris, Tavon Wilson
FS: Tracy Walker

K: Matt Prater
P: Sam Martin
LS: Don F' Muhlbach
KR/PR: Jamal Agnew

*Depth is filled in by low cost FAs, mid/late draft choices and undrafted FAs.

Although the linebackers remain a relative point of weakness, and the downgrade from Slay to Okudah cannot be ignored, I feel that an improved pass-rush and running game/offensive line could earn the 2020 Lions a playoff birth (assuming the key pieces remain healthy).

Edited by TL-TwoWinsAway
I speel tings bad. (Added Veteran FA to RT after Lionized's post.)
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

The Lions are entering the crucial 3rd year of the Patricia regime, and expectations have been spelled out quite clearly by the ownership group: compete for a playoff spot or you'll find yourself out of a job. Although I disagree with this approach,

hahaha

yeah god knows we wouldn't even want to put the completely impotent, meaningless "compete for a playoff spot" ultimatum on them, it might make their little backsides seize up and make them go 5-11 instead of 7-9

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This feels like one step forward two steps back. Hard to see us improving from a three win team to a playoff team with an off season like this.

I think our secondary takes a significant step back, the offensive line continues to struggle (looking at the tackles), and we're still lacking pass rush. Both 1st rounders are at positions that usually need time to develop. I don't see how they have much positive impact year one. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Nnivolcm said:

This feels like one step forward two steps back. Hard to see us improving from a three win team to a playoff team with an off season like this.

I think our secondary takes a significant step back, the offensive line continues to struggle (looking at the tackles), and we're still lacking pass rush. Both 1st rounders are at positions that usually need time to develop. I don't see how they have much positive impact year one. 

You don't see how a healthy Stafford alone has a significant impact on our final record?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

7 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

You don't see how a healthy Stafford alone has a significant impact on our final record?

I think poor play by the OTs this season had a large impact on Stafford not being healthy. If play from the tackles isn't improved I don't see why Stafford being healthy is a guarantee. 

If Stafford remains healthy I think the team is better. I don't think that really needed to be asked. However, the team still had a losing record with Stafford healthy in 2019. Very few teams make playoff pushes with losing records. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Nnivolcm said:

 

I think poor play by the OTs this season had a large impact on Stafford not being healthy. If play from the tackles isn't improved I don't see why Stafford being healthy is a guarantee. 

If Stafford remains healthy I think the team is better. I don't think that really needed to be asked. However, the team still had a losing record with Stafford healthy in 2019. Very few teams make playoff pushes with losing records. 

Blah. Yeah, the team had a "losing record" with "Stafford healthy". It was 3-4-1, after games against the playoffs-bound Chiefs and Packers, with a Stafford that was battling injuries. But, you know, all the same.

You don't think an NFL player being healthy is a guarantee? Shocking, groundbreaking analysis.

The team in the mock is better along the OLine, better at RB, better at rushing the passer and worse at CB. I see plenty of reason for this team to be improved from their 2019 record, Stafford's presence on the field being one of those reasons.

Edited by TL-TwoWinsAway
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Blah. Yeah, the team had a "losing record" with "Stafford healthy". It was 3-4-1, after games against the playoffs-bound Chiefs and Packers, with a Stafford that was battling injuries. But, you know, all the same.

You don't think an NFL player being healthy is a guarantee? Shocking, groundbreaking analysis.

The team in the mock is better along the OLine, better at RB, better at rushing the passer and worse at CB. I see plenty of reason for this team to be improved from their 2019 record, Stafford's presence on the field being one of those reasons.

I like your mock. Is there any FA you would like to see them Target this year to complement your changes? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Lionized said:

I like your mock. Is there any FA you would like to see them Target this year to complement your changes? 

Thanks a lot.

Great question. After Flowers last year, and a few contracts/extensions on the horizon, I didn't make a big FA splash. I'd really love to see a veteran OT brought in on a short contract to compete/push Crosby... a Whitworth type would make sense... but I'm not entirely sure who will be available. Adding a veteran OT is a must.

In addition, I'd like to add some sort of depth at ILB, as well as a serviceable S.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Blah. Yeah, the team had a "losing record" with "Stafford healthy". It was 3-4-1, after games against the playoffs-bound Chiefs and Packers, with a Stafford that was battling injuries. But, you know, all the same.

You don't think an NFL player being healthy is a guarantee? Shocking, groundbreaking analysis.

The team in the mock is better along the OLine, better at RB, better at rushing the passer and worse at CB. I see plenty of reason for this team to be improved from their 2019 record, Stafford's presence on the field being one of those reasons.

Everyone battles injuries in the NFL. It's a violent game. The inability to overcome those injuries falls on Quinn and Patricia for not acquiring/developing adequate depth, and Patricia for not scheming to minimize the impact of the injuries. 

I don't see how the oline or pass rush is notable better in 2020. Maybe down the road, but that road probably doesn't involve Patricia. I don't see how an aging and expensive RB is what the Lions were missing in 2019. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Nnivolcm said:

Everyone battles injuries in the NFL. It's a violent game. The inability to overcome those injuries falls on Quinn and Patricia for not acquiring/developing adequate depth, and Patricia for not scheming to minimize the impact of the injuries. 

I don't see how the oline or pass rush is notable better in 2020. Maybe down the road, but that road probably doesn't involve Patricia. I don't see how an aging and expensive RB is what the Lions were missing in 2019. 

Everyone battles injuries, some more than others during a given year. Some lose their starting quarterback, some don't. They're still a huge part of the game.

The fact that you don't think a 1st round pass rusher or a late 1st/early 2nd round guard could improve the team is sort of amazing. I guess you're against drafting players at all, and would rather trade draft picks for players. (Or, you'll just say whatever you can to try and support your irrational viewpoint. Yeah, it's probably that one.)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Everyone battles injuries, some more than others during a given year. Some lose their starting quarterback, some don't. They're still a huge part of the game.

The fact that you don't think a 1st round pass rusher or a late 1st/early 2nd round guard could improve the team is sort of amazing. I guess you're against drafting players at all, and would rather trade draft picks for players. (Or, you'll just say whatever you can to try and support your irrational viewpoint. Yeah, it's probably that one.)

Quinn has had 4 years to get a backup QB capable of weathering the storm while Stafford recovered. He failed to do so.

It's rare for an edge rusher to have a large impact their rookie season. When Detroit has so few other pass rushing threats to game plan around, it seems foolish to assume a late 1st round rookie edge rusher to turn around our anemic pass rush.

Interior OLine wasn't our biggest weakness on the Oline in 2019. It was the tackles. You've failed to address the biggest weakness. Why would I assume a rookie OG, drafted anywhere, would make poor OTs magically play better?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Nnivolcm said:

Quinn has had 4 years to get a backup QB capable of weathering the storm while Stafford recovered. He failed to do so.

It's rare for an edge rusher to have a large impact their rookie season. When Detroit has so few other pass rushing threats to game plan around, it seems foolish to assume a late 1st round rookie edge rusher to turn around our anemic pass rush.

Interior OLine wasn't our biggest weakness on the Oline in 2019. It was the tackles. You've failed to address the biggest weakness. Why would I assume a rookie OG, drafted anywhere, would make poor OTs magically play better?

Perhaps, once Stafford went down, they aimed at the other reward, which was draft value. It would seemingly jive with their decision not to trade draft picks for players that could help right away.

I'd argue that adding a 1st round edge rusher would help this team more than not adding a 1st round edge rusher. I think any rational person would.

OG wasn't our biggest weakness, but was still improved in this mock, which only stands to improve the team. Crosby is still young and played relatively well during his starts in 2019. Another strong pass-catching RB only helps.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

TL - We generally seem to be on the same page on different things. You've liked a bunch of my posts and vice-versa. 

Unfortunately, I can't really buy what you're selling here. 

1) Slay - I don't think the Lions trade Slay for a 2nd round pick. I do think that a team like the Eagles could pull the trigger. They're in a wide open division against three teams that are going to have new HC's. The Cowboys are the closest in competition based on talent but any coach is going to have to implement their schemes. Adding guys like Slay for a playoff push isn't out of the realm of possibility and we're looking at a low end 1st rounder for a top 5 CB in the league. 

2) Glasgow: This is where you and I differ from what the Lions seem to be thinking. I want them to re-sign Glasgow but they seem intent on letting him the market. My guess is that he's going to get a bit more attention from other teams and he'll move on. Even if the contract seems like something that we would/could have matched easily. Maybe he made a dirty comment about Quinn's wife or something, I don't know. It makes zero sense to me. 

3) Staying at #3 - If we're going to be taking a guy like Okudah, there's a chance that we could trade down and still get him assuming that there's trade partners looking to get their QB. Herbert just single-handedly won the Rose Bowl, Tua could declare and progress well enough to be considered for a top pick and a couple other guys could float up into top 10 conversations. There likely wasn't too many people talking about Carson Wentz and Mitch Trubisky as top level QB's at this point in the process of their respective drafts. 

4) Trading back into the 1st round: If they're going to take an edge rusher, they might as well take one with their first pick. Mortgaging extra picks to move up 5 spots doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Love the constructive criticism, sounds reasonable.

I absolutely believe, based in his ability, that Slay is worth a 1st round pick. There's no doubt about that. In my opinion, his trade value is diminished by his looming contract (he'll have to agree to one for the other team to pull the trigger) and the possibility that he'll hold out again. It's no secret that he dislikes this regime, and his statements have made it clear that he has no loyalty to Quinn/Patricia. It's those reasons that I feel a mid 2nd and playmaker are reasonable compensation.

Glasgow: it's definitely possible. He made a statement recently that he just "wants to feel wanted", and a nice contract should do just that. I don't think he's in the same boat as Slay in that he dislikes the organization. Lastly, I think the Wagner release is what makes this contract possible, one reason why they may have waited until now.

I absolutely think that we could trade down in this draft, which is 100% my personal preference. From the perspective of Quinn/Patricia, I believe, with the importance of this season, they wouldn't want to risk trading Slay and missing out on Okudah, who has shutdown CB potential.

Thanks for the feedback!

Edited by TL-TwoWinsAway
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/1/2020 at 4:09 PM, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Perhaps, once Stafford went down, they aimed at the other reward, which was draft value. It would seemingly jive with their decision not to trade draft picks for players that could help right away.

What evidence do you have their catastrophic season after Stafford was injured was intentional? If that was the case, why did they wait so long to put Stafford on IR? The lack of trading picks for players is the only thing I've seen mentioned, but trades during the season are rare in the NFL under any circumstances. 

Quote

 

I'd argue that adding a 1st round edge rusher would help this team more than not adding a 1st round edge rusher. I think any rational person would.

OG wasn't our biggest weakness, but was still improved in this mock, which only stands to improve the team. Crosby is still young and played relatively well during his starts in 2019. Another strong pass-catching RB only helps.

 

I thought this was a playoff push mock, not a better than 3-12-1 mock.

Edited by Nnivolcm
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...