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Bolts223

Way too early 2020 predictions

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8 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

No you aren’t lol. No one ever picking all favorites to make the playoffs or bracket winners will be 100% right. Not even close. 

Nobody is ever 100% right because the odds of guessing every single playoff team in any given year are astronomically low.

But picking higher probability outcomes rather than lower probability ones does make me more likely to be 100% right.

You're trying to argue a logical fallacy here.

Teams that make the playoffs one year are individually more likely to make the playoffs the next year than those who didn't.

7/12 teams that made the playoffs in 2018 made the playoffs in 2019.

5/20 teams that missed the playoffs in 2018 made the playoffs in 2019.

 

Edited by Bolts223

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6 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

@Bolts223 Im willing to bet anything the Rams arent finishing (6-10). 

I don't think we'll be 6-10 but there's a very legit world where the defense sucks next year without Wade and likely without Brockers, Littleton, and Fowler. 

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2 minutes ago, Bolts223 said:

Nobody is ever 100% right.

 

March Madness Bracket? No. That is basically impossible. 1.7 trillion times harder than hitting the lottery. 
 

Picking the 12 NFL Playoff Teams? Been done a ridiculous amount of times by people. And it never ever consists of picking 12 favorites. Usually a couple teams out of no where, and 1-2 teams sitting on the fence. 

Edited by BayRaider

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@bolts223 Oh and you have the Niners going (12-4), what does history say about the Superbowl losers? If the Niners go on to win 12 games that would be a rare for a Superbowl loser to do that the following season. Im not even saying the Niners cant make the playoffs but its going to be hard and the NFC West is the toughest division in football plus unlike the Rams schedule which looks easy, the Niners schedule is going to be harder because they will have to face Green Bay and the Saints. Maybe they beat them again this season too but maybe they dont this time. So it wouldnt shock me at all to see the Niners drop to (11-5) or even (10-6) give or take. They did win some close games this season that maybe they would lose this upcoming season like for example those Cardinals games. Both were close. Then the Week 16 game against the Rams where it took converting two 3rd and 16s to win. Im just saying. 

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1 minute ago, BayRaider said:

March Madness Bracket? No. That is basically impossible. 1.7 trillion times harder than hitting the lottery. 
 

Picking the 12 NFL Playoff Teams? Been done a ridiculous amount of times by people. And it never ever consists of picking 12 favorites. Usually a couple teams out of no where, and 1-2 teams sitting on the fence. 

I think if you asked 1,000 NFL fans before the 2019 season to pick the 2019 playoff teams less than 5 would've gotten 100% right.

I'll say this again:

Teams that make the playoffs in a season are more likely to make the playoffs the next season than team's that didn't.

Over 50% of 2018 NFL playoff teams made it in 2019.

25% of non-playoff teams in 2018 made it in 2019.

If I'm trying to correctly guess 12 different correct outcomes it logically makes sense to be picking the ones that are most likely. Not picking random ones just for the sake of it.

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9 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

@bolts223 Oh and you have the Niners going (12-4), what does history say about the Superbowl losers? If the Niners go on to win 12 games that would be a rare for a Superbowl loser to do that the following season. Im not even saying the Niners cant make the playoffs but its going to be hard and the NFC West is the toughest division in football plus unlike the Rams schedule which looks easy, the Niners schedule is going to be harder because they will have to face Green Bay and the Saints. Maybe they beat them again this season too but maybe they dont this time. So it wouldnt shock me at all to see the Niners drop to (11-5) or even (10-6) give or take. They did win some close games this season that maybe they would lose this upcoming season like for example those Cardinals games. Both were close. Then the Week 16 game against the Rams where it took converting two 3rd and 16s to win. Im just saying. 

The Patriots just won the SB after losing the year before.

This past decade:

2011 Steelers went 12-4 after losing in 2010.

2012 Patriots went 12-4 after losing in 2011.

2013 49ers went 12-4 after losing in 2012.

2014  Broncos went 12-4 after losing in 2013.

2015 Seahawks went 10-6 after losing in 2014

2017 Falcons went 10-6 after losing in 2016

2018 Patriots went 11-5 (and won the SB) after losing in 2017.

2016 Panthers and 2019 Rams are the only two that missed the playoffs. And the Rams still had a winning record and probably would've made the playoffs if they didn't play in a brutally tough division.

This entire SB loser's curse is overblown. It's freaking hard to get to the SB two years in a row. It's not a coincidence that the Patriots and Seahawks are the only franchises of the 21st century to be in back to back SB's. (Regardless of being a winner or loser)

Edited by Bolts223

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10 minutes ago, Bolts223 said:

I think if you asked 1,000 NFL fans before the 2019 season to pick the 2019 playoff teams less than 5 would've gotten 100% right.

I'll say this again:

Teams that make the playoffs in a season are more likely to make the playoffs the next season than team's that didn't.

Over 50% of 2018 NFL playoff teams made it in 2019.

25% of non-playoff teams in 2018 made it in 2019.

If I'm trying to correctly guess 12 different correct outcomes it logically makes sense to be picking the ones that are most likely. Not picking random ones just for the sake of it.

You aren’t even going by those percentages though. You are picking like the same exact teams. The goal is to be one of those 5 people out of 1,000. Not aim for a safe 85%. 

Edited by BayRaider

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6 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

You aren’t even going by those percentages though. You are picking like the same exact teams. The goal is to be one of those 5 people out of 1,000. Not aim for a safe 85%. 

Being one of those 5 people at the end of the day comes down to pure luck more than anything.

I'm more likely to be one of those 5 people by picking all of the likely teams.

Pretend you have a rigged coin that is going to come up as heads 65% of the time, tails 35% of the time.

Are you ever going to call tails before any individual flip? No because you are more likely to be wrong than you are correct on that individual flip.

The chances that it will be heads 12 times in a row is still astronomically low. But 12 heads is the most likely specific outcome possible. Not flips 1, 3, 5, 6, 9, 10, 12 being heads and 2, 4, 7, 8, 11 being tails.

Edited by Bolts223

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8 minutes ago, Bolts223 said:

Not sure why.

They'll have 6 extremely tough divisional games.

It'll be tough to do anything to drastically improve their o-line given the lack of draft capital cap space they have. Especially if they give Ramsey a long term deal.

The loss of Wade Phillips is going to be significant for the defense.

Just like the Chargers you don't really have any kind of HFA anyways. The 49ers, Seahawks, Giants, Cowboys, Patriots, Jets and Bears games are all going to be loaded with opposing fans.

Not saying the division wont be tough but you do realize if it wasnt for Zeurlien missing the game-winning field goal in Seattle McVay would be (5-1) against Seattle? Even with Fisher the Rams play the Seahawks tough. So while the Seahawks are a really good football team, I dont see them as a team I think the Rams will lose more than they win. Until I see the Cards start winning games against the Rams dont even mention them. I dont think McVay has lost to the Cards since he became the Rams had coach. So you say 6 tough divisional games, I say the only team I look at and say it wouldnt surprise me if we got swept by them and thats the Niners. So at worst the Rams will go (3-3) again in the division. But again thats just thinking the Rams will get swept by the Niners again and I dont think thats going to happen. But even if you say split the Niners and split with the Seahawks and again until the Cards actually win a game against McVay dont even talk to me about the Rams not sweeping them. Like thats (4-2) right there in the division. But lets just say at worst (3-3) within the division thats half your win totals right there. That means the Ram would literally have to go (3-7) out of division to reach (6-10) and again Im willing to bet anything thats not going to happen unless the Rams are literally down to their 3rd string QB. Heck even in a down year this season the Rams went (3-3) in the division and still went (6-4) outside the division. Again to sum everything up, the Rams arent going (6-10) unless they have a 2018 Falcons season where everyone is on the injury report and/or IR. 

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Just now, stl4life07 said:

Not saying the division wont be tough but you do realize if it wasnt for Zeurlien missing the game-winning field goal in Seattle McVay would be (5-1) against Seattle? Even with Fisher the Rams play the Seahawks tough. So while the Seahawks are a really good football team, I dont see them as a team I think the Rams will lose more than they win. Until I see the Cards start winning games against the Rams dont even mention them. I dont think McVay has lost to the Cards since he became the Rams had coach. So you say 6 tough divisional games, I say the only team I look at and say it wouldnt surprise me if we got swept by them and thats the Niners. So at worst the Rams will go (3-3) again in the division. But again thats just thinking the Rams will get swept by the Niners again and I dont think thats going to happen. But even if you say split the Niners and split with the Seahawks and again until the Cards actually win a game against McVay dont even talk to me about the Rams not sweeping them. Like thats (4-2) right there in the division. But lets just say at worst (3-3) within the division thats half your win totals right there. That means the Ram would literally have to go (3-7) out of division to reach (6-10) and again Im willing to bet anything thats not going to happen unless the Rams are literally down to their 3rd string QB. Heck even in a down year this season the Rams went (3-3) in the division and still went (6-4) outside the division. Again to sum everything up, the Rams arent going (6-10) unless they have a 2018 Falcons season where everyone is on the injury report and/or IR. 

I don't think going 2-4 is really that unrealistic. I don't think going 4-6 outside of the division is that unrealistic.

That's what gets 6-10.

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1 hour ago, Bolts223 said:

C East

  1. Eagles (10-6-0)

  2. Cowboys (9-7-0)

  3. Giants (6-10-0)

  4. Redskins (3-13-0)

This is for sure wrong. We have an NFC E rule that no team can win the division in back to back years. 

 

The Eagles need to get younger and upgrade WRs. I expect the Cowboys to get that "new coach boost". I know the Eagles fans whined incessantly about injuries, but the Redskins have had a rough go of it as well. If they get healthy, I think they will compete for the division. 

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3 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

This is for sure wrong. We have an NFC E rule that no team can win the division in back to back years. 

I mean that was the rule in the NFC South too until it wasn't.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Cowboys won the division but I think the Eagles deserve to be the favorite.

Edited by Bolts223

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11 minutes ago, Bolts223 said:

The Patriots just won the SB after losing the year before.

This past decade:

2011 Steelers went 12-4 after losing in 2010.

2012 Patriots went 12-4 after losing in 2011.

2013 49ers went 12-4 after losing in 2012.

2014  Broncos went 12-4 after losing in 2013.

2015 Seahawks went 10-6 after losing in 2014

2017 Falcons went 10-6 after losing in 2016

2018 Patriots went 11-5 (and won the SB) after losing in 2017.

2016 Panthers and 2019 Rams are the only two that missed the playoffs. And the Rams still had a winning record and probably would've made the playoffs if they didn't play in a brutally tough division.

This entire SB loser's curse is overblown. It's freaking hard to get to the SB two years in a row. It's not a coincidence that the Patriots and Seahawks are the only franchises of the 21st century to be in back to back SB's. (Regardless of being a winner or loser)

You made my point exactly. The Patriots, Falcons, and Seahawks which was the last 3 teams struggled just to win at best 11 games. Both the Seahawks and Falcons started off very slowly and had to catch fire at the end just to make the playoffs. The Patriots pretty much everyone would agree it was their worst team in terms of winning the Superbowl. Like they won 11 games playing in the AFC East. So if you are going to say how tough the NFC West is and the past 3 Superbowl losers struggled to get to at best 11 wins, its not a lock for the Niners to just win 12 games and have the same type of season they had this season. Not to wish any injury but this was the first full season Jimmy G was able to stay healthy. So are we assuming that will continue to happen? For his sake and Niners fans sake I hope he continues in great health but his history (outside of this season) says otherwise. If he misses games then that will definitely hurt the Niners chances of having success. Like we have to take that into account as well. 

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6 minutes ago, Bolts223 said:

I mean that was the rule in the NFC South too until it wasn't.

We will see. Hard to predict since every team will be going in with new coaching staffs. Even the Eagles made some changes. Maybe keeping Pederson will set them apart. But that roster has been old for a couple years now. Its no shock they have injury problems. And they really havent been good drafters. 

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11 minutes ago, Bolts223 said:

I don't think going 2-4 is really that unrealistic. I don't think going 4-6 outside of the division is that unrealistic.

That's what gets 6-10.

Ill even go far as to say this, even the most pessimistic person when it comes to the Rams wouldnt even say the Rams will go (6-10) mainly because of the respect they have for McVay as a coach and the Rams still have talent on the roster. Its not like they are trotting out there scrubs. But hey we shall see. We will hear alot more hot takes from now until the season starts again. Maybe your (6-10) prediction will look good compared to what other hot takes that will be said lol. 

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