mission27 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 42 minutes ago, mission27 said: The only team that benefits from the new format is the new 7 seed tbh Any other take is dumb And clearly the main team that is hurt is the #2 seed Based on Skippy's numbers on average any given #1 seed has a 25% chance of winning the SB, a #2 seed has a 12.5% chance, #3-6 seeds have way less in the single digits Obviously there is a team quality bias but putting that aside for a second Basically what this does is adds another team in each conference with a single digit chance of winning the Super Bowl and the #2 seed goes from being a worse version of the #1 seed to being a lot more similar to a #3 or #4 seed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Basically I think the #1, #3-6 seeds are probably hurt marginally because there is an extra team in the playoffs and therefore an extra team that can get hot at the right time and go on a run. But there could also be marginal knock-on effects in the other direction. Likely doesn't change their odds by a statistically significant amount. The #2 seed is hurt enormously. Like, maybe 30% less likely to win the Super Bowl. The #7 seed is obviously infinitely more likely to win the Super Bowl and is the only real beneficiary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 The chance of the #1 seed having to play the #2 seed is drastically reduced as well. Assuming the #2 being favored in each game at a 67% chance the odds go from 67%(1 game) to 45%(2 games) The #2 seed gets kicked in the pants. Note: You can run the numbers at 80%(64%) or 55%(30%) they will be awful for the #2 seed in any case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bolts223 Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, mission27 said: Basically I think the #1, #3-6 seeds are probably hurt marginally because there is an extra team in the playoffs and therefore an extra team that can get hot at the right time and go on a run. But there could also be marginal knock-on effects in the other direction. Likely doesn't change their odds by a statistically significant amount. The #2 seed is hurt enormously. Like, maybe 30% less likely to win the Super Bowl. The #7 seed is obviously infinitely more likely to win the Super Bowl and is the only real beneficiary. A 3-seed now has a realistic chance to host a divisional round playoff game. I'd say that helps them quite a bit. Edited February 21, 2020 by Bolts223 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiltman Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 It hurts the 2nd seed a lot, but why do we care so much? go out and win the 1st seed...it’s a reward for being the best in your conference. Like Saints missed out this year because they couldn’t finish off the win against the Niners, Niners got the #1 because they did and beat the Seahawks to cap off the year. Do we feel bad for them? I guess I just don’t see the big deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabbs4u Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Kiltman said: It hurts the 2nd seed a lot, but why do we care so much? go out and win the 1st seed...it’s a reward for being the best in your conference. Like Saints missed out this year because they couldn’t finish off the win against the Niners, Niners got the #1 because they did and beat the Seahawks to cap off the year. Do we feel bad for them? I guess I just don’t see the big deal. It's not. If anything this will make every game including week 17 for most teams a game that must be played. Whether it's to remain #2 or drop. No more resting because you won your division early knowing you get a Bye as a 2. The #1 Seed should have every advantage including less games played then the rest of the field. Love the change in format. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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