SlevinKelevra Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Xenos said: Vox looks at three different scenarios about how to "reopen" the economy and feels apprehensive. https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment the entire country and media should be apprehensive as hell. The IHME "model" -- the thing that the WH has based everything around-- was proven catastrophically wrong today. It's almost like people who try to fit data without understanding underlying mechanisms should shut the hell up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob_shadows Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, SlevinKelevra said: You specifically said its because they have a large border. In factual reality, most of that border is defined by rivers. While a lot of people might be crossing, I highly doubt it's by swimming across. So there are these things called roads... And when those roads meet Rivers we build these things called Bridges.... Edited April 14, 2020 by rob_shadows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, SlevinKelevra said: You specifically said its because they have a large border. In factual reality, most of that border is defined by rivers. While a lot of people might be crossing, I highly doubt it's by swimming across. Its still a land border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 1 minute ago, rob_shadows said: So there are these things called roads... And when those roads meet Rivers we build these things called Bridges.... Is that proven accurate? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 1 minute ago, SlevinKelevra said: the entire country and media should be apprehensive as hell. The IHME "model" -- the thing that the WH has based everything around-- was proven catastrophically wrong today. It's almost like people who try to fit data without understanding underlying mechanisms should shut the hell up. Link? I dont trust the IMHE model either but if you are referring to the fact that its predictions are wildly different from reality, that's been the case since day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 Just now, vikesfan89 said: Is that proven accurate? It has not stood up to academic rigor tbh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, rob_shadows said: Yeah that's going to go over well, lol. I mean it doesn't really bother me personally, I couldn't care less if people know where I am... But I don't think I'm in the majority on that one. From the Vox article (this is the CAP plan): Quote The entity that hosts the data must be a trusted, nonprofit organization—not private technology companies or the federal government. The app could be developed for a purely public health nonprofit entity such as the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO)—an organization that represents state health officials—which would host the data. Congress or foundations could provide funding to develop and operate the technology. States licensing the app could provide ongoing operational funding to ASTHO, provided states receive federal funding for this purpose. • Additional protections must include the following: • The amount of data needed and shared must be minimized • This system must be transparent • Data must be collected, secured, and stored within the United States • Data must be automatically deleted after every 45 days • The sharing of data with the federal government, except for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), must be prohibited • The sharing of data with state and local government agencies that are not public health agencies must be prohibited • The sharing of data with third parties and the sale of data must be prohibited • Any data shared publicly must be anonymized As a condition of receiving a COVID-19 test in the future, individuals may be required to download the app, which would include their test result. For others, the app would be voluntary, although the vast majority of people could be expected to download it to see if there are cases in their neighborhood or near their workplace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 Just now, rob_shadows said: So there are these things called roads... And when those roads meet Rivers we build these things called Bridges.... yes, there's lots and lots of bridges across those rivers. oh wait https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/11/29/5-facts-about-russias-first-highway-bridge-to-china-a68399 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 do any of you EVER bother googling or learning anything before spouting off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, mission27 said: Link? I dont trust the IMHE model either but if you are referring to the fact that its predictions are wildly different from reality, that's been the case since day 1 you need a link to the IHME model? LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob_shadows Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 1 minute ago, SlevinKelevra said: yes, there's lots and lots of bridges across those rivers. oh wait https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/11/29/5-facts-about-russias-first-highway-bridge-to-china-a68399 So your argument against crossing by bridge is posting a link proving there is a bridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 Just now, SlevinKelevra said: you need a link to the IHME model? LMAO No I'm asking what are you referring to that its been proven wrong today? Did someone publish a takedown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 1 Just now, rob_shadows said: So your argument against crossing by bridge is posting a link proving there is a bridge? 1 bridge for 2500 miles of land border (his argument) you think that makes it easy for people to cross? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 1 minute ago, SlevinKelevra said: 1 1 bridge for 2500 miles of land border (his argument) you think that makes it easy for people to cross? https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-tightens-russia-border-to-stem-surge-of-coronavirus-cases-11586881584 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 Just now, mission27 said: No I'm asking what are you referring to that its been proven wrong today? Did someone publish a takedown? people have pointed out its flaws since the preprint went up. it uses the error function to model with simple idiot-;level parameter fitting for a problem that is governed by the type of math I've already beated you over the head with and you ignored. We just set a new record for most daily deaths today. Reality has refuted their "model" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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