Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[ramssuperbowl99]

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210305005610/en/

Quote

Merck (NYSE: MRK), known as MSD outside the United States and Canada, and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, LP today announced preliminary results from Ridgeback’s Phase 2a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and efficacy to eliminate SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA of molnupiravir (EIDD-2801/MK-4482), an investigational oral antiviral agent.

This multi-center U.S. Phase 2a study enrolled 202 non-hospitalized adults who had signs or symptoms of COVID-19 within 7 days and confirmed active SARS-CoV-2 infection. The primary efficacy objective was reduction in time to viral negativity measured by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) analysis of nasopharyngeal swabs. Periodic samples were collected for virologic analysis. Of the 182 participants with an evaluable nasopharyngeal swab, 42% (78/182) showed detectable levels of cultured virus at baseline. 

Today’s presentation described findings from the secondary endpoint of reduction in time (days) to negativity of infectious virus isolation in nasopharyngeal swabs from participants with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, as determined by isolation in Vero cell line culture. At day 5, there was a reduction (nominal p=0.001, not controlled for multiplicity) in positive viral culture in subjects who received molnupiravir (all doses) compared to placebo: 0% (0/47) for molnupiravir and 24% (6/25) for placebo.

Of 202 treated participants, no safety signals have been identified and of the 4 serious adverse events reported, none were considered to be study drug related.

This is interesting.

[Shanedorf]

2 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

This is interesting.

Derek Lowe wrote about it In the Pipeline, but the clinical data hadn't been released yet

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/03/04/molnupiravir-last-of-the-small-molecule-coronavirus-hopes

"Take a moment to think about the flip side of all this, though: here’s a known compound, already investigated against a number of viruses (in vitro and in animal models), with a promising mechanism of action that gave some confidence that it would have activity against a new RNA virus pathogen, and which was already heading towards human trials.

You could not ask for a better-positioned small molecule; this is as good as it gets. So the time it’s taken to get the clinical read on whether it really works or not is about as fast a development as you’re going to see. Everything was lined up perfectly and a lot of the work had already been done. Keep that timeline in mind as a baseline"

 

 

[mission27]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/uk-covid-19-variant-significantly-105003090.html

1. this is not great news although evidence has been mounting

2. thankfully, the vaccine seems to be highly effective against B.1.1.7

3. the data here is very interesting on CFR.  it suggests the CFR of the original COVID strain is about 0.25%.  a few people (including the MoL) have estimated something in this range.  this is one of the largest (the largest?) sample I've seen estimating CFR and supports quite a low CFR.

Take 529k American deaths, assume a 0.25% CFR, and that would suggest 211 million Americans have had COVID.  Would (along with vaccines) explain the sustained drop in cases despite our best efforts to perpetuate the pandemic by everyone returning to their normal lives the last couple months.

Edited March 11, 2021 by mission27

[mission27]

To be clear 0.25% is kinda high.  Its like 2-5x more deadly than seasonal flu

But its still less than 1/10th the long standing WHO estimate from the beginning of the pandemic that justified some of the most draconian and long term damaging actions taken

And still means 399 out 400 people who get COVID will survive

[bucsfan333]

This thread, like WAYTA, is slow to load. I'm gonna lock it and create a new one.