2020 Offense Outlook

[dwaye50327]

10 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Because he’s not a top 10 back.  At no point this season did he really seem like a significant threat except for how he was used.

LaFleur is a RB whisperer.

People forget Jamaal Williams had half a yard boost to his yards per rush and had 5 receiving touchdowns.

Since LaFleur is a good RB guy, makes me wonder why they drafted Dillion in the second. Since Jones and Williams had such good years under LaFleur, it seems like they could have gone elsewhere with the second round pick like Willie Gay JR, or Logan Wilson, positions that are more of a necessity.

[Beast]

10 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Because he’s not a top 10 back.  At no point this season did he really seem like a significant threat except for how he was used.

LaFleur is a RB whisperer.

People forget Jamaal Williams had half a yard boost to his yards per rush and had 5 receiving touchdowns.

I think it's the scheme, the goal of the scheme is to take pressure off the QB to make them more efficient and effective when they are used.

The main method of taking the pressure off the QB is to put it directly on the RB, via finding ways to get the RB in one on one matchups, via the wide zone concepts and using the RB as a receiver, so they can get him in one on one matchups where hopefully they'll be more athletic than a LB and more physical than a Safety.

19 minutes ago, dwaye50327 said:

Since LaFleur is a good RB guy, makes me wonder why they drafted Dillion in the second. Since Jones and Williams had such good years under LaFleur, it seems like they could have gone elsewhere with the second round pick like Willie Gay JR, or Logan Wilson, positions that are more of a necessity.

Because this scheme (as talked about above), is built off finding success for the RB to take pressure off everyone else. And Jones, Williams and Ervin are all going into contract years.

Also because as LaFleur mentioned he'd like to have a deeper group of RBs so he could use them more and in different ways. LaFleur also said he wish he could of run more power plays, which sorta suggested he felt like he couldn't for some reason (Aaron Jones doesn't really have much of a power game, neither does our TEs or OL, heck, one might suggest most of the draft centered around that power game).

Speaking of which, going back to this scheme, with the exception of the Vikings and Packers whom are fairly new to the scheme, all whom run this system have a power RB starting, and normal more athletic backup. Vikings have a speedster as starter but drafted a more powerful guy with the 3rd round last year I believe, leaving the Packers as the only one without a power RB untill drafting Dillion.

Also, the fact that Gute LOVES ceiling potential usually based off combine numbers and that Dillion ceiling potential might have the raw potential to be Derrick Henry (or a poor mans version of it), as his combine numbers (except height) basically match Derek Henry's. Also while he didn't do as much in the field, if you check out Dillion's teams, he supposed was working with a more simple offense AND teams loaded up the box, I believe it was at, 44% of the time against him, where the next highest was Jonathan Taylor, whom I believe was at, 25% of the time the defensive box was loaded to stop him.

In other words, a passing game that threaten the defense to respect it enough so they can't load up the box MIGHT be able to free him a lot more than he was in college.

[dwaye50327]

3 minutes ago, Beast said:

I think it's the scheme, the goal of the scheme is to take pressure off the QB to make them more efficient and effective when they are used.

The main method of taking the pressure off the QB is to put it directly on the RB, via finding ways to get the RB in one on one matchups, via the wide zone concepts and using the RB as a receiver, so they can get him in one on one matchups where hopefully they'll be more athletic than a LB and more physical than a Safety.

Because this scheme (as talked about above), is built off finding success for the RB to take pressure off everyone else. And Jones, Williams and Ervin are all going into contract years.

Also because as LaFleur mentioned he'd like to have a deeper group of RBs so he could use them more and in different ways. LaFleur also said he wish he could of run more power plays, which sorta suggested he felt like he couldn't for some reason (Aaron Jones doesn't really have much of a power game, neither does our TEs or OL, heck, one might suggest most of the draft centered around that power game).

Speaking of which, going back to this scheme, with the exception of the Vikings and Packers whom are fairly new to the scheme, all whom run this system have a power RB starting, and normal more athletic backup. Vikings have a speedster as starter but drafted a more powerful guy with the 3rd round last year I believe, leaving the Packers as the only one without a power RB untill drafting Dillion.

Also, the fact that Gute LOVES ceiling potential usually based off combine numbers and that Dillion ceiling potential might have the raw potential to be Derrick Henry (or a poor mans version of it), as his combine numbers (except height) basically match Derek Henry's. Also while he didn't do as much in the field, if you check out Dillion's teams, he supposed was working with a more simple offense AND teams loaded up the box, I believe it was at, 44% of the time against him, where the next highest was Jonathan Taylor, whom I believe was at, 25% of the time the defensive box was loaded to stop him.

In other words, a passing game that threaten the defense to respect it enough so they can't load up the box MIGHT be able to free him a lot more than he was in college.

Adding a bruising back doesn't help this run defense that was ranked in the bottom half of the league.

[vegas492]

5 minutes ago, dwaye50327 said:

Adding a bruising back doesn't help this run defense that was ranked in the bottom half of the league.

Eh.  If the bruising running back helps tilt the time of possession in GB's favor....yah, it does.

Totally get your point of wishing we had better DL/ILB, though.

[dwaye50327]

3 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Eh.  If the bruising running back helps tilt the time of possession in GB's favor....yah, it does.

Totally get your point of wishing we had better DL/ILB, though.

It's whatever though, there's a reason I'm not a GM and those guys are. I just like to complain but in the end I'll still be cheering and hopefully catch a game this year if there is a season and if they let fans in to the stadium.

[Beast]

3 hours ago, dwaye50327 said:

Adding a bruising back doesn't help this run defense that was ranked in the bottom half of the league.

1) That's completely out of no where

2) My comment and the message thread was about offense...

3) Yes actually it does... the longer the offense can stay on the field, the more rest the defense gets. There were absolutely time when the offense struggled to stay on the field and the defense got worn down... as they needed more rest.

4) The cap limits how many money teams can use. The rules favors the offenses, the ball control favors the offense, so literally the defenses can't stop everything. Pick your poison,. you're going to be weak somewhere.

5) Pettine, rightfully or wrongfully, cares the least about run defense, as it's a passing league, and he wants to stop the passing game.

 

[dwaye50327]

27 minutes ago, Beast said:

1) That's completely out of no where

2) My comment and the message thread was about offense...

3) Yes actually it does... the longer the offense can stay on the field, the more rest the defense gets. There were absolutely time when the offense struggled to stay on the field and the defense got worn down... as they needed more rest.

4) The cap limits how many money teams can use. The rules favors the offenses, the ball control favors the offense, so literally the defenses can't stop everything. Pick your poison,. you're going to be weak somewhere.

5) Pettine, rightfully or wrongfully, cares the least about run defense, as it's a passing league, and he wants to stop the passing game.

 

1. That was pretty out of no where, lol

 

3. The defense was getting shredded by teams running the ball right out of the gates. Not like teams were rushing all over them in the 4th quarter, but as soon as the game started until the game ended, GB's run defense was getting shredded.

 

5. If Pettine cares least about run defense he is going to be out of a job soon. Teams are going to figure out, why pass the ball on GB when you can run on them all day and average over 5 yards a carry.

Dalvin Cook average 7.7 yards per rush

Jordan Howard average 5.8

Josh Jacobs avarage 5.9

Hell the Chargers were ranked near the bottom for rushing offense(averaging 69 yards/game) and ran for 159 yards on them.

Zeke average 5.2

McCaffrey averaged 5.4

Mostert/Coleman averaged 5.5 in the first game, i won't even bring up the playoff game

Saquon was 4.4

Peterson/Guice average 6.1

Kerryon Johnson averaged 4.8

 

You won't beat very many good teams with they can just run the ball on you however they feel.

I guess i'm a little off topic , I'll stop now.

 

 

[Beast]

1 hour ago, dwaye50327 said:

1. That was pretty out of no where, lol

 

3. The defense was getting shredded by teams running the ball right out of the gates. Not like teams were rushing all over them in the 4th quarter, but as soon as the game started until the game ended, GB's run defense was getting shredded.

 

5. If Pettine cares least about run defense he is going to be out of a job soon. Teams are going to figure out, why pass the ball on GB when you can run on them all day and average over 5 yards a carry.

Dalvin Cook average 7.7 yards per rush

Jordan Howard average 5.8

Josh Jacobs avarage 5.9

Hell the Chargers were ranked near the bottom for rushing offense(averaging 69 yards/game) and ran for 159 yards on them.

Zeke average 5.2

McCaffrey averaged 5.4

Mostert/Coleman averaged 5.5 in the first game, i won't even bring up the playoff game

Saquon was 4.4

Peterson/Guice average 6.1

Kerryon Johnson averaged 4.8

 

You won't beat very many good teams with they can just run the ball on you however they feel.

I guess i'm a little off topic , I'll stop now.

 

 

Your right, it's not Pettine knows what he's doing or can help the team to a 13-3 record while the offense struggled more than the defense... so wait, yes he just did do that... I guess maybe just maybe he might know a little about football after all, just a little.

 

[craig]

5 hours ago, vegas492 said:

Eh.  If the bruising running back helps tilt the time of possession in GB's favor....yah, it does.

Totally get your point of wishing we had better DL/ILB, though.

The key word there is "if".  It's a familiar hypothetical concept:  big bruising back bashing out first downs.  While the stereotype is conceptually attractive, is it actually true?  Does it actually work that way?  We'll have to see.  But I'm not sure the big, bruising, 247-pound Dillon going to just pound it up the middle and bruise the 300-pound DL, 265-pound OLB, and 235-pound ILB back by 5 yards a crack?  Maybe it works for Wisconsin against Central Michigan.  But big backs routinely have high ypc-averages, and consistently pound out 1st downs?  

Time of possession will work in our favor **if** we're converting 1st down after 1st down.  But I'm hesitant to trust that the big bruising back will actually do that.  Does he have the burst and the change-of-direction to pop outside and kill the defense with outside runs?  Or will we be doing a lot of power between-the-tackle running that sets up lots of 2nd-and-8, 3rd-and-4; that is NOT pounding out lots of first downs on 1st down or 2nd down, and is instead just setting up lots of 3rd downs?  And once they get to 3rd down and more than 5 feet, it's predictably pass as with 30 other teams in the NFL?  

Against the strength of NFL defense, I think you're still more running between guys, running under guys, running around guys, rather than bashing them over, for the most part.  

I also thing ypc-average can be deceptive.  A bruising back gets 16 carries and averages 4.4, that seems pretty good, right?  Doesn't that mean I can just go run-run-run, and 3 x 4.4 = 13 yards, I'm powering out first downs with yards to spare? 

But while the average might be 4.4, that's not usually how it works.  More likely the guy broke one big 25-yard run.  But then on the other 15 carries, he's averaging 3.0, and his median is less than that.  If you try to go run-run with your bruising back, you may be routinely setting up 3rd-and-5, 3rd-and-4. 

I hope I'm being paranoid, and that our bruising back is gashing for more 2nd-and-4 than 3rd-and-4.  And I hope our bruising back, with his straight-line speed, is quick and shifty enough to run outside an awful lot.  

I think this is where MLF has been good with backs:  lots of outside opportunities, where the back has time and opportunity to react to what happens and find his seam.  Hopefully Dillon will thrive with the outside zone stuff; and while he may not be bruising over DL up the middle, that he's getting lots of chances to be bruising over safeties and corners outside with momentum on his side.  

[Beast]

The goal is to get the RB in as many one on ones as possible and hope that he can win those. 

So I'm not sure if a RB is going to have to run over three different guys and just because you're big doesn't mean you have to run over them... you can simply break their tackle.... and why everyone is over focusing on Dillion size, he's actually got pretty good straight line speed for his size and at 40lbs heavier he ran a faster 40 time than Aaron Jones. Of course, there is no chance he's as shifty as Jones, but Jones also doesn't have any power.

Also, I believe the Packers run the wide zone concepts, and not the outside zone. (It's a big deal difference to Alex Gibbs, who created the wide zone, which usually doesn't bounce outside). Overall, not a big deal, just thought it might be important to anyone that wants to study the schemes.

[Shanedorf]

 

[Shanedorf]

 

[Shanedorf]

Here Jones beats Damon Snacks Harrison who was waiting for him in the backfield

 

 

[craig]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

....Also, I believe the Packers run the wide zone concepts, and not the outside zone. (It's a big deal difference to Alex Gibbs, who created the wide zone, which usually doesn't bounce outside). Overall, not a big deal, just thought it might be important to anyone that wants to study the schemes.

Would you or somebody explain the difference?  

[Beast]

16 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Here Jones beats Damon Snacks Harrison who was waiting for him in the backfield

 

 

That was also impressive with Snacks, whom claims he has a couple of teams interested in him, I sometimes wonder if the Packers might be one.

Bak and Clark are thought to be the MUST RESIGNs coming up, but it's an interesting debate who's 3rd with C Linsley, RB Jones and CB King.

Position wise it's King, but he's also the most inconsistent and that shoulder injury (from freshman year of college) scares me once he gets some more age and money.

While we have Dillion and RBs haven't been the smarter to invest big money into, if they market is low on RBs (as some might predict because there are so many FA RBs and the limit fans might hurt the cap), then resigning Jones to a moderate deal would probably be best and use draft picks in CB.