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How draft classes is Mahomes worth?

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28 minutes ago, DannyB said:

 

Moving on from an aging Alex Smith is WAY different than moving on from an elite QB in their prime.

...Huh!? More teams have won that way than teams that have a QB on a taking-the-top-off-the-market megadeal

The Chiefs, by the way, being one of them. -_-

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31 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I was highlighting the many QBs from that draft class who have gone on to have significant success.  It's not like there would be an extraordinary amount of luck involved in drafting one of those guys.

Yeah, you’re trying to tell that to the Chiefs franchise who haven’t drafted a good QB (other than Mahomes) in how many years? Making it sound like it’s not hard or doesn’t require luck is really underestimating the difficulty in finding a franchise QB. Hence the hindsight comment. 

31 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Re: hindsight... it's just as bad to assume most of those early round picks would have been busts as it is to assume most would have been solid contributors or better.

No it isn’t. Any given pick, especially one in the mid-rounds, is more likely to bust than hit. I don’t think anyone would say 50%< of the players hit.

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Wasn't there some crazy stat that no QB drafted by the chiefs won a game for them for like 30 years? And I think QBs drafted by the niners have won more games for the chiefs than QBs drafted by Kansas City?

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Just now, Yin-Yang said:

Yeah, you’re trying to tell that to the Chiefs franchise who haven’t drafted a good QB (other than Mahomes) in how many years? Making it sound like it’s not hard or doesn’t require luck is really underestimating the difficulty in finding a franchise QB. Hence the hindsight comment. 

Literally 5 out of 8 of the QBs drafted in the first 4 rounds of 2012 have had significant success in this league.  It would actually be harder not to draft a successful QB from that class.

4 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

No it isn’t. Any given pick, especially one in the mid-rounds, is more likely to bust than hit. I don’t think anyone would say 50%< of the players hit.

I said early rounds. 1st rounders are more likely to hit than bust.  2nd round is more of a coin flip, depending on position.

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Posted (edited)

Teams since 2012 that have made the Super Bowl with a QB earning AAV >20 mil

2013 Broncos (Manning was earning like 19.something so we can include him. Guy got the Infinity Stones for a year, lost em before the Super Bowl and got crushed by the Seahawks.) 

2015 Panthers (Cam Newton signs big extension for roughly 20 a year, carries team to Super Bowl, MVP season. Team hasn't sniffed the Super Bowl since.)

2016 Falcons (Matt Ryan gets there with 20 mil contract. You know the rest. Btw, the guy that beat him was worth 1 million against the cap that year.)

2018 Patriots (Tom Brady becomes the only QB in the history of the NFL with a contract that large to actually win the Super Bowl.)

 

Edited by SpacemanSpiff
Had AAY instead of AAV originally. My point stands.

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4 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Literally 5 out of 8 of the QBs drafted in the first 4 rounds of 2012 have had significant success in this league.  It would actually be harder not to draft a successful QB from that class.

So we’re going to say Tannehill and Cousins have had “significant success” now, okay...Foles has had flashes in the pan, at least. Is there any Chiefs fan in the league that is okay switching Mahomes for Tannehill, Cousins, or Foles? A single one? 

Who’s to say they don’t go for Gabbert in the year prior? Locker? Ponder? 

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I said early rounds. 1st rounders are more likely to hit than bust.  2nd round is more of a coin flip, depending on position.

Okay. Rounds 1 and 2. Still more likely to pick a bust than a hit. 

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Just now, Yin-Yang said:

So we’re going to say Tannehill and Cousins have had “significant success” now, okay...Foles has had flashes in the pan, at least. Is there any Chiefs fan in the league that is okay switching Mahomes for Tannehill, Cousins, or Foles? A single one? 

Who’s to say they don’t go for Gabbert in the year prior? Locker? Ponder? 

I'd say going to the Pro Bowl and the playoffs denotes success.  Foles won a SB.

I'd rather have a stacked roster with a QB on a rookie deal than a great QB being paid a ridiculous amount and constraining my cap, leading to a weak overall roster.  

Everyone knew in 2011 that the QBs picked outside of Cam were reaches.  McCarthy would have had the cache fresh off a SB win to take an elite prospect like Von, Peterson, Julio or Green and get his QB next year.

 

7 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Okay. Rounds 1 and 2. Still more likely to pick a bust than a hit. 

False. 

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I'd say going to the Pro Bowl and the playoffs denotes success.  Foles won a SB.

Guess we can check Mitch Trubisky,  Andy Dalton, and Vince Young off as having “significant success” in this league. 

And I gave you Foles, liberally. He had one and a half seasons where he wasn’t a backup caliber QB. 

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I'd rather have a stacked roster with a QB on a rookie deal than a great QB being paid a ridiculous amount and constraining my cap, leading to a weak overall roster.  

I discussed that earlier. 

Would you rather have no QB, Arik Armstead, and Amari Cooper - or Patrick Mahomes? As a Redskins fan, I’m semi-surprised that you’re talking about how simple and easy it is to find a franchise QB when your team hasn’t had one in ages. And I don’t mean that as a shot. It’s just...one would think you would know. 

Cap space is important but it’s getting massively overstated ITT. Two tier-two FAs is squat for a QB like Rodgers or Mahomes.

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Everyone knew in 2011 that the QBs picked outside of Cam were reaches.  McCarthy would have had the cache fresh off a SB win to take an elite prospect like Von, Peterson, Julio or Green and get his QB next year.

Yeah...that’s full hindsight. Not the part where those teams reached a bit for those QBs, but deeeeefinitely the part where the Packers would hypothetically just take a HOF talent and then get a franchise QB the following year, lol.

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False. 

So Rounds 1 and 2 produce 32 or more hits? News to me.

Edited by Yin-Yang

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27 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

So we’re going to say Tannehill and Cousins have had “significant success” now, okay...Foles has had flashes in the pan, at least. Is there any Chiefs fan in the league that is okay switching Mahomes for Tannehill, Cousins, or Foles? A single one? 

Those guys? No because you've seen them play and you know more or less what their floor/ceiling is. Tua Tagovailoa, on the other hand, is more interesting to think about.

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2 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Guess we can check Mitch Trubisky,  Andy Dalton, and Vince Young off as having “significant success” in this league. 

So now Cousins and Tannehill are at the same level of those guys just because they share some of the same accomplishments?  Ok.  Mine clearly wasn't an exhaustive list of their success in this league.  No need to be disingenuous about it.

4 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Would you rather have no QB, Arik Armstead, and Amari Cooper - or Patrick Mahomes? As a Redskins fan, I’m semi-surprised that you’re talking about how simple and easy it is to find a franchise QB when your team hasn’t had one in ages. And I don’t mean that as a shot. It’s just...one would think you would know. 

The Redskins primary problem hasn't been QB over the last two decades.  It's been ownership/management.  

Say the Broncos had traded for Rodgers in 2011 rather than signing Manning the next year... I'd rather have Von Miller in 2011, one of those 5 QBs on rookie contracts in 2012, and ~20 extra draft picks to build my team.

12 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Yeah...that’s full hindsight. Not the part where those teams reached a bit for those QBs, but deeeeefinitely the part where the Packers would hypothetically just take a HOF talent and then get a franchise QB the following year, lol.

This is all hypothetical.  We have no idea what would have happened.  I'm just telling you what they reasonably could have done.

12 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

So Rounds 1 and 2 produce 32 or more hits? News to me.

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

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38 minutes ago, SpacemanSpiff said:

Teams since 2012 that have made the Super Bowl with a QB earning AAV >20 mil

2013 Broncos (Manning was earning like 19.something so we can include him. Guy got the Infinity Stones for a year, lost em before the Super Bowl and got crushed by the Seahawks.) 

2015 Panthers (Cam Newton signs big extension for roughly 20 a year, carries team to Super Bowl, MVP season. Team hasn't sniffed the Super Bowl since.)

2016 Falcons (Matt Ryan gets there with 20 mil contract. You know the rest. Btw, the guy that beat him was worth 1 million against the cap that year.)

2018 Patriots (Tom Brady becomes the only QB in the history of the NFL with a contract that large to actually win the Super Bowl.)

 

Well you have to measure it as a percentage of the cap. 20 million for a QB was much different even just 10 years ago than it is now. A decade ago the only QBs making that were McNabb and Peyton. Only ten years later? You'd have the privilege of having Marcus Mariota for that number.

The main point is, there really is no great example yet of one of these blockbuster QB deals has resulted in a SB win. The percentage of the cap being taken up by the starting QB has been increasing at a rate that is not commensurate to the increase in total salary cap. At some point the market HAS to adjust, and I just wonder if it will a few years beyond the Belichick/Brady era.

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How confident are you in your teams drafting ability?

 

Are you talking prime belicheck or Browns level?

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26 minutes ago, DannyB said:

Well you have to measure it as a percentage of the cap. 20 million for a QB was much different even just 10 years ago than it is now. A decade ago the only QBs making that were McNabb and Peyton. Only ten years later? You'd have the privilege of having Marcus Mariota for that number.

The main point is, there really is no great example yet of one of these blockbuster QB deals has resulted in a SB win. The percentage of the cap being taken up by the starting QB has been increasing at a rate that is not commensurate to the increase in total salary cap. At some point the market HAS to adjust, and I just wonder if it will a few years beyond the Belichick/Brady era.

I totally agree, but like -- doesn't that make it even more damaging to the argument of paying the quarterback that even at lower percentage of the cap being taken up, these QBs are still not able to get teams around them successful enough to win? Just seems to further confirm the point that teams are going to have to start bailing on the idea of keeping successful rookies around at some point. 

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

So now Cousins and Tannehill are at the same level of those guys just because they share some of the same accomplishments?  Ok.  Mine clearly wasn't an exhaustive list of their success in this league.  No need to be disingenuous about it.

You said Pro Bowl + playoff(s) = “significant success”. So yes, using the criteria you gave, we can mix Trubisky, Young, Dalton, Tannehill, and Cousins together as QBs with “significant success”. I wonder who would be comfortable getting rid of Mahomes for one of them.

If that’s disingenuous, what would be listing Foles, Tannehill, and Cousins in with Luck and Wilson be?

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The Redskins primary problem hasn't been QB over the last two decades.  It's been ownership/management.  

It hasn’t been the primary problem, but it’s been a big one. Not turning this into a Skins debate, just figured you’d be more keen on the difficulties that come with a QB search considering the team hasn’t had one for a long time.

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Say the Broncos had traded for Rodgers in 2011 rather than signing Manning the next year... I'd rather have Von Miller in 2011, one of those 5 QBs on rookie contracts in 2012, and ~20 extra draft picks to build my team.

This is all hypothetical.  We have no idea what would have happened.  I'm just telling you what they reasonably could have done.

Using an example of what could’ve happened (Rodgers for picks) with the benefit of hindsight as proof that what should/would happen (Mahomes for picks) doesn’t make sense.

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Historic Success Chart

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The chart is for players who get drafted and start half their career. So by that standard, Mitch Trubisky - hit. Trent Richardson - hit. Chance Warmack - hit. JeMarcus Russell - hit. So yeah, maybe not the best measurement of hits/misses? 

Edited by Yin-Yang

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