Boston vs Miami .. For the EAST!!

[resilient part 2]

just one example of Tatum's offensive improvement. 

Kirk Goldsberry

 

@kirkgoldsberry

Best Unassisted 3-Point Shooters, 2019-20* 1. Jayson Tatum ... 41.1 3P% 2. Paul George ..... 40.6 3. Dame Lillard ..... 40.2 4. Zach LaVine ..... 39.9 5. Chris Paul ......... 38.7 Min. 100 attempts, 51 qualifying players https://es.pn/2E5rq5K

[Mox]

11 hours ago, resilient part 2 said:

UnPopular opinions do not matter for me, since so many fans are casual fans (not saying you are) and just go with the flow. I also never had a problem going against the grain if I believe in something. (Like KD being = Lebron last 4-5 years)

Examples - The Ben Simmons/debate was a landslide his rookie year with Ben having monstrous regular season stats, while I stood alone on Tatum. Some even said it wouldn't ever be close. I looked more at the game abilities of both and not the basketball situations one had over the other. Then was the Siakim over Tatum declaration early in the season, where I again stood nearly all alone. In either case I was in the minority and now it seems laughable that at one time that was a debate.

Will never - is an absolute, like saying definitely, will ever be and/or always. I stay away from that since I have learned how many times that turns out wrong. But offensively speaking, I can not disagree more. Tatum, at his age and current improvements are actually outstanding when compared to his contemporaries at his wing positions. In fact if using the pretty decent sample size of Tatum's last 20 regular season games (basically 2020) + Bubble Games + playoffs, Tatum is/was averaging near 28 points on 48% and 46%  81% 2 and 3 + FT splits. with I believe near 5 asts per. (stats were from last week) 

*All above stats are equal or far better than some all-time greats at the same age. Kobe, Wade, Kawhi, PG, J Butler and even Lebron (27, on 47, 31, 69) . Not claiming Tatum > Lebron, but damn for sure his offensive potential of shooting and scoring can be both elite and certainly in the neighborhood, but in a different way than Luka's. But also understanding that Luka's role will benefit him in that regard.

which brings me to the next point about stats. 

Player #1 - 28.8 (54, 31, 76) 8.8 ast 4.3 TO 

Player #2 - 29.6 (50, 36, 86) 9.3 ast 4.2 TO

Player #3 - 28.9 (53, 38, 91) 5.9 ast 2.8 TO

all 3 players have somewhat comparable offensive stats, and all 3 have one major thing in common. All 3 were ball dominant PGs who had there teams built around them. the 3 are in order. Luka, Trae, and IT (last healthy year in Boston.)

So my question is what about Luka, makes him "potentially" the top, player with those numbers, while Trae (not top 20 and IT Ever even top 40 or 50?) or is it because in his system, like the others, had the benefit of a team, who didn't have many ball needy players, had good role players,  got to do whatever they wanted, when they wanted. Shet even Michael Williams won a ROY in that role and he is barely in the league. Freakin R Westbrook won and MVP and 2 triple doubles 👀 as the man.

Your assertion that Luka is the system is also flawed IMO. Picture Luka doing that with teammates like Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward and/or either Kyrie, Rozier or Kemba (2019,  2020)... that wouldn't happen. . Looking at what hapenned when luka had to share the ball with Denis Smith the year before and imagine Kemba, Smart, Hayward and Brown??

 Coach Carlisle, took his system with Luka on the bench, and made that 2nd unit tops in BB.. So much credit not given to Carlisle for that. Now would Luka be the "system" on a team full of good role players, then Yes he would. but his situation as the "man" is so far more enviable than what Tatum has. and that isn't even close IMO.

Concerning Nash, "if Nash had a "Rim protector" it would have helped, agree. But don't agree with if Nash was a Good defender, it wouldn't. Just having his teammates Not having to over help is so BIGTIME. Even so much more now in this small ball ERA. 

I think Tatum's ceiling is definitely more than a "likeable" PG as you say. In fact Tatum may very well end up "Kobe lite" and perhaps a better facilitator and defender. 

You claim, "Luka can carry an offense" and yet Dallas' offense when Luka was on the bench was, I believe at an all-time great level and tops in the NBA this year at least for a second unit. In fact lighting up the Bucks as the best home team in BB and top defensive team WITHOUT Luka, including other games I forgot, proves that.

as far as Luka's ONE playoff series being a Tier above, is just like the regular seasons..

far greater role, in a loss, with only one sample size.. Again Boston beat a team with Simmons and Embiid, then beat Giannis and the Bucks, before eventually losing a game 7 to the Cavs (with Lebron) and without (Kyrie and GH) during Tatum's rookie year. So if your statement about Luka > Tatum for a single series is true, then I say Tatum's overall playoff performance in multiple series 2018 and again 2020 is on a higher Tier than Luka's one series.. and Many Series with wins >>> just one with loss.

LAST and most importantly for me is the value of position. Tatum's position of a wing, which has him playing anywhere from 1-2-3-4 and even 5 (vs Miami) is not to be underestimated vs a PG, who can't defend any position well. Look at the best players the last 10+ years or so at Tatum's position, you have in no order. KD Lebron, Kobe, Wade, Butler , PG, Kawhi, Giannis etc.. are all way more valuable than any of the top PGs as a group. You have Steph Curry, Dame, Westbrook, CP3, Harden (I guess a PG) Kyrie. Ben Simmons

In fact in todays game, they call it position-less basketball. and with that, you damn for sure better guard up and defending everyone and everything. Tatum does and does it at an elite level.

Conclusion, Yes Luka should be winning some MVPs, I also think Tatum will have a good chance at that as well. A Top player on perhaps on one of the best teams in the next 5 years or so (I hope)

Sorry this was late and long, just didn't want to banter back and forth all night.. But you gave me a lot to digest.

Will be awaiting your rebuttal. 

 

 

Let's start with the offense argument. You're using numbers to pass Tatum off as similar to LeBron/Kobe/Wade but they aren't as close as you'd think. First, you have to account for era. Second, you have to account for pace and minutes played. On a per 100 possession basis, Tatum falls well short of those guys.Tatum is 33-10-4 this season, LeBron is 37/10/10 for his career, Kobe 36-7-7, and Wade 34-7-8, without factoring in era or scoring efficiency. Again those are career averages, not primes. Tatum's 33-10-4 is more comparable to Brandon Ingram's 33-8-6, than those other guys.

I have no problem issuing absolutes when the evidence isn't there to suggest something will happen. Passing/playmaking is like athleticism, you can improve it but the elite ones just have it. If you don't, you never will. Luka is an elite passer/playmaker, Tatum isn't and never will be. That's not to say he can't be good at it (something I've backtracked on with him) but the difference between good and elite with passing is massive. The foundation of great offenses are guys who are elite scorers and elite playmakers (or great coaching). 

When going into IT/Trae/Luka, the thing is the more you look into them the less comparable they are. They only look similar statistically from a simplistic view of bulk numbers. Per 100 with advanced stats:

Luka: 41.5 ppg 13.5 rpg 12.7 apg (46-32-76) 6.1 topg  TS 58.5%  PER 27.6  BPM 8.4  VORP 5.4 (shortened season)  RPM 4.28

Trae: 39.1 ppg 5.6 rpg 12.3 apg (44-36-86) 6.4 topg  TS 59.5%  PER 23.9  BPM 3.9  VORP 3.1  RPM 0.97

IT: 42.4 ppg 4.0 rpg 8.6 apg (46-38-91) 4.1 topg  TS 56.2%  PER 26.5  BPM 6.7  VORP 5.6  RPM 2.48

Which of those guys are you taking? The numbers suggest you take the first guy pretty easily. He also happens to be the tallest, best defender (by a mile) and the youngest player in that group as well.  I don't think it's particularly close and that's comparing him to Trae Young (a young star) and peak Isiah Thomas who was 2nd team All NBA that year. Funny enough, Luka already has a 1st Team under his belt which is more than both of those guys and Tatum combined, and he's younger than all of them. Also, I'm a huge proponent of Trae Young and firmly believe he's a top 30 player in the NBA with a chance to eventually be top 10. He's unfortunately saddled on a miserable team that went through an abundance of injuries this season but I see him being a superstar for years to come.

I don't see the point in bringing up Westbrook because he doesn't understand basketball. He's a stat accumulator. Luka is a basketball genius. Look at the difference in their play this postseason. Westbrook handicapped the Rockets, while Luka (a decade younger) played fantastic and forced a competitive series with a heavy favorite. They are in no way comparable except in terms of raw numbers. It is true that Dallas did have a good offense this season when Luka was on the bench. That is not mutually exclusive from him being "the system" in Dallas. Rick Carlisle being a great coach and bench guy does not mean that Luka isn't the system. A one game sample size against Milwaukee doesn't show anything, they were essentially 7-9 without him and 36-23 with him.

If Luka went to Boston, the offense would look different but would still heavily revolve around Luka, far more than it does Tatum. He's a much better on-ball creator, it's just logical to do that. We seem to be arguing different things. If I understand correctly, you are suggesting Luka is in an enviable position and puts up gaudy numbers because he's forced to be the man. Again, if I understand right, you say Tatum plays on a better team and thus his role/ability to produce numbers is restricted. I'm saying Luka would be the man anywhere because he's that good. Every system, like with LeBron, would cater to Luka no matter where he is. The numbers that come along with that are secondary. I'm saying Tatum could not do the things Luka does because he doesn't have the skillset to do them. It's not a numbers argument, it's a running an offense argument. 

I think I misspoke with Nash. Obviously him being a better defender helps, albeit I think it's largely negligible. To better explain my point, what I meant to say is that if you made Nash 5% worse on offense and 5% better on defense (pick any % you want), the team does not get better. His offense was easily the most valuable part of those teams, and no matter how good he was defensively, the foundation behind him would keep them from being a good defensive team.

Semantics aside Kobe lite seems relatively doable, I don't think he'll be the scoring talent or quality of facilitator Kobe was but he certainly seems more willing to make plays for others. I think his play-style is more PG 2.0 or Durant lite though.

I don't know how to find Bubble only stats (though Luka was 1st Team All-Bubble), so let's use the current season and postseason for these guys. The gap between these guys offensively is pretty large, and that's a big part in why Luka at age 21 made All NBA 1st Team and Tatum made the 3rd team (albeit should've made 2nd, still he had no argument for 1st). Remember that Luka also played a straight up better opponent in the postseason.

Per 100 possessions:

Tatum

RS: 33.0 ppg 9.8 rpg 4.3 apg (45-40-81) 3.3 topg

PS: 32.1 ppg 13.2 rpg 5.4 apg (44-41-79) 3.2 topg

Luka

RS: 41.5 ppg 13.5 rpg 12.7 apg (46-32-76) 6.1 topg

PS: 40.7 ppg 12.9 rpg 11.4 apg (50-36-66) 6.8 topg

The numbers aren't close. If KP was healthy, it's certainly possible that they send the Clippers home in round one. Simplifying it down to "this guy won a few series and this guy didn't" isn't analysis. Tatum has never beaten an opponent in the playoffs at the level of this years Clippers. So he's played easier opponents, been in the league longer, been on better teams, and was a role player for some of those wins. Again, any time Tatum has played a team on the level of this years Clippers he lost. Luka's performance in his one playoff series against the Clippers is better than any Tatum has had. That's not all that arguable.

I'm not sure what you are bringing into the argument by saying basketball is position-less. That only helps Luka. he's nearly the same size as Tatum and has guarded 1-4 as well (albeit as a way to hide him). Tatum is a better defender but Luka guarding different positions isn't an issue. He's a PG on offense being he's too skilled to be used anywhere else. He's already better offensively than virtually every player you named too. Luka is primed to dominate the NBA for the next decade plus. He's younger than Tatum, he made a much larger jump from year 1 to year 2, and he's already better than him. Based on what we've seen it seems likely that the gap only grows going forward.

Edited September 17, 2020 by Bullet Club

[resilient part 2]

1 hour ago, Bullet Club said:

Let's start with the offense argument. You're using numbers to pass Tatum off as similar to LeBron/Kobe/Wade but they aren't as close as you'd think. First, you have to account for era. Second, you have to account for pace and minutes played. On a per 100 possession basis, Tatum falls well short of those guys.Tatum is 33-10-4 this season, LeBron is 37/10/10 for his career, Kobe 36-7-7, and Wade 34-7-8, without factoring in era or scoring efficiency. Again those are career averages, not primes. Tatum's 33-10-4 is more comparable to Brandon Ingram's 33-8-6, than those other guys.

I have no problem issuing absolutes when the evidence isn't there to suggest something will happen. Passing/playmaking is like athleticism, you can improve it but the elite ones just have it. If you don't, you never will. Luka is an elite passer/playmaker, Tatum isn't and never will be. That's not to say he can't be good at it (something I've backtracked on with him) but the difference between good and elite with passing is massive. The foundation of great offenses are guys who are elite scorers and elite playmakers (or great coaching). 

When going into IT/Trae/Luka, the thing is the more you look into them the less comparable they are. They only look similar statistically from a simplistic view of bulk numbers. Per 100 with advanced stats:

Luka: 41.5 ppg 13.5 rpg 12.7 apg (46-32-76) 6.1 topg  TS 58.5%  PER 27.6  BPM 8.4  VORP 5.4 (shortened season)  RPM 4.28

Trae: 39.1 ppg 5.6 rpg 12.3 apg (44-36-86) 6.4 topg  TS 59.5%  PER 23.9  BPM 3.9  VORP 3.1  RPM 0.97

IT: 42.4 ppg 4.0 rpg 8.6 apg (46-38-91) 4.1 topg  TS 56.2%  PER 26.5  BPM 6.7  VORP 5.6  RPM 2.48

Which of those guys are you taking? The numbers suggest you take the first guy pretty easily. He also happens to be the tallest, best defender (by a mile) and the youngest player in that group as well.  I don't think it's particularly close and that's comparing him to Trae Young (a young star) and peak Isiah Thomas who was 2nd team All NBA that year. Funny enough, Luka already has a 1st Team under his belt which is more than both of those guys and Tatum combined, and he's younger than all of them. Also, I'm a huge proponent of Trae Young and firmly believe he's a top 30 player in the NBA with a chance to eventually be top 10. He's unfortunately saddled on a miserable team that went through an abundance of injuries this season but I see him being a superstar for years to come.

I don't see the point in bringing up Westbrook because he doesn't understand basketball. He's a stat accumulator. Luka is a basketball genius. Look at the difference in their play this postseason. Westbrook handicapped the Rockets, while Luka (a decade younger) played fantastic and forced a competitive series with a heavy favorite. They are in no way comparable except in terms of raw numbers. It is true that Dallas did have a good offense this season when Luka was on the bench. That is not mutually exclusive from him being "the system" in Dallas. Rick Carlisle being a great coach and bench guy does not mean that Luka isn't the system. A one game sample size against Milwaukee doesn't show anything, they were essentially 7-9 without him and 36-23 with him.

If Luka went to Boston, the offense would look different but would still heavily revolve around Luka, far more than it does Tatum. He's a much better on-ball creator, it's just logical to do that. We seem to be arguing different things. If I understand correctly, you are suggesting Luka is in an enviable position and puts up gaudy numbers because he's forced to be the man. Again, if I understand right, you say Tatum plays on a better team and thus his role/ability to produce numbers is restricted. I'm saying Luka would be the man anywhere because he's that good. Every system, like with LeBron, would cater to Luka no matter where he is. The numbers that come along with that are secondary. I'm saying Tatum could not do the things Luka does because he doesn't have the skillset to do them. It's not a numbers argument, it's a running an offense argument. 

I think I misspoke with Nash. Obviously him being a better defender helps, albeit I think it's largely negligible. To better explain my point, what I meant to say is that if you made Nash 5% worse on offense and 5% better on defense (pick any % you want), the team does not get better. His offense was easily the most valuable part of those teams, and no matter how good he was defensively, the foundation behind him would keep them from being a good defensive team.

Semantics aside Kobe lite seems relatively doable, I don't think he'll be the scoring talent or quality of facilitator Kobe was but he certainly seems more willing to make plays for others. I think his play-style is more PG 2.0 or Durant lite though.

I don't know how to find Bubble only stats (though Luka was 1st Team All-Bubble), so let's use the current season and postseason for these guys. The gap between these guys offensively is pretty large, and that's a big part in why Luka at age 21 made All NBA 1st Team and Tatum made the 3rd team (albeit should've made 2nd, still he had no argument for 1st). Remember that Luka also played a straight up better opponent in the postseason.

Per 100 possessions:

Tatum

RS: 33.0 ppg 9.8 rpg 4.3 apg (45-40-81) 3.3 topg

PS: 32.1 ppg 13.2 rpg 5.4 apg (44-41-79) 3.2 topg

Luka

RS: 41.5 ppg 13.5 rpg 12.7 apg (46-32-76) 6.1 topg

PS: 40.7 ppg 12.9 rpg 11.4 apg (50-36-66) 6.8 topg

The numbers aren't close. If KP was healthy, it's certainly possible that they send the Clippers home in round one. Simplifying it down to "this guy won a few series and this guy didn't" isn't analysis. Tatum has never beaten an opponent in the playoffs at the level of this years Clippers. So he's played easier opponents, been in the league longer, been on better teams, and was a role player for some of those wins. Again, any time Tatum has played a team on the level of this years Clippers he lost. Luka's performance in his one playoff series against the Clippers is better than any Tatum has had. That's not all that arguable.

I'm not sure what you are bringing into the argument by saying basketball is position-less. That only helps Luka. he's nearly the same size as Tatum and has guarded 1-4 as well (albeit as a way to hide him). Tatum is a better defender but Luka guarding different positions isn't an issue. He's a PG on offense being he's too skilled to be used anywhere else. He's already better offensively than virtually every player you named too. Luka is primed to dominate the NBA for the next decade plus. He's younger than Tatum, he made a much larger jump from year 1 to year 2, and he's already better than him. Based on what we've seen it seems likely that the gap only grows going forward.

Ok, i respect so many points you make, but it appears for so many points, I need to counter. Which is both time consuming and distracting as I am nervously awaiting tonight's game. Suffice to say, no matter what either of us say, will not be changing any opinions. And that is fine. I need to agree that neither will change their mind any time soon. 

Time will reveal all things, it will be a fun ride over the next few years.. Until then peace my Bro - signed  Resilient 

[Mox]

2 minutes ago, resilient part 2 said:

Ok, i respect so many points you make, but it appears for so many points, I need to counter. Which is both time consuming and distracting as I am nervously awaiting tonight's game. Suffice to say, no matter what either of us say, will not be changing any opinions. And that is fine. I need to agree that neither will change their mind any time soon. 

Time will reveal all things, it will be a fun ride over the next few years.. Until then peace my Bro - signed  Resilient 

I'm excited for the game tonight. Game 1 was a classic.

[resilient part 2]

6 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

I'm excited for the game tonight. Game 1 was a classic.

[resilient part 2]

Love this quote from Stevens

 

Boston Celtics

 

@celtics

Brad Stevens on his team staying in the moment: “None of the stuff you’ve lived in the past matters. None of the stuff you dream of in the future matters. It’s just about what you need to do on this possession right now.”

1:48 PM · Sep 16, 2020

 

 

[Troy Brown]

come onnnnn gordon!

[resilient part 2]

At least Kemba is making his shots

[resilient part 2]

Semi Brick,  Kanter Turnover. Romeo Langford??? Tatum hasn't even touched it yet??

Edited September 17, 2020 by resilient part 2

[resilient part 2]

Kemba is just too small on defense

[resilient part 2]

SEMI IS NOT AN NBA playoff player....

[resilient part 2]

when I see these scrubs on Boston's team and think of how many draft picks we have had, Ainge really should be relieved of all drafting positions,,

[resilient part 2]

and Kanter on defense over R Williams is borderline insanity...

[resilient part 2]

Stevens just make up substitons as he goes along is so dumb.. I mean Grant Williams has outplayed Kanter, Semi and LOL Langford, and yet he is the only one still sitting.. 

Everyone gets a participation trophy YAY!!

Edited September 17, 2020 by resilient part 2

[11sanchez11]

Brad Wannamakethefinals is a 16 gm player