Clips from Tampa Bay (Mike Pettine Edition)

[MantyWrestler]

If the packers are going to play so many 2DL fronts with the Smith‘S and Gary at Eege, why not just play a 4-3? It’s not like those 3 are great in coverage. We use them that way and only have 1 ILb on the field most of the tome so we’re really small to run against. Plus, like AG said a few times, we get beat on the edge way more than we should with a 3-4 because Pettine either allows or doesn’t control our OLB not containing the edge

[AlexGreen#20]

6 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

I feel increasingly like Pettine is stuck in the early 10's, and hasn't been able to keep up in terms of updating his concepts to handle changes in NFL offense strategy.  That's probably too broad a statement given my lack of research, but whatever this is a message board not a doctoral thesis.   He seems to play defense from the deep ball forward regardless of personnel on either side of the ball, and it keeps resulting in games where teams are more than happy to just eat the defense alive with the run game and the short-mid range passing game.  Cover-4 is fine in certain situations, but it's a passive defense that strips mid-level defense. 

And actually, as I'm typing, I'm just growing more confused by his concepts.  C2/C4 removes a mid-level defender to reduce the chance of a deep shot, which is increasingly less useful the better your pass rush is.  You don't really need to flood the deep zones if the QB is constantly being moved off the spot.  Calling so much C4 with a good pass rush group just pits your strengths against each other; the rush can't get home because there's always an outlet for the ball with good value, and your high end coverage guys are wasted because they're defending a small zone 15 yards downfield.  And that's on top of dropping your second best outside rusher so that you can rush two NTs instead.  

What even is this defense?  What is it trying to do well?  Does Pettine really feel that just taking the deep ball away and giving up everything else is a winning strategy in a league where the best teams dominate in the short area?

I think you nailed it.

I think there's an issue with the perception vs the reality of what Pettine is. 

Pettine looks like an old school football coach. Pettine runs a defense that's founded on new age analytical concepts.

Those concepts seem to be:

1. The run can't hurt you. Even at 5 yards per run, inevitably somebody is going to false start or hold or one of your studs is going to win a rep.

2. Creating big plays on defense and stopping big plays on offense matters infinitely more than down-to-down consistency.

• So we play two deep safeties to prevent the deep pass which leaves us light in the box.
• We play with a safety instead of an ILB to help against the pass which leaves us light in the box.
• We refuse to compromise zone concepts against heavy personnel which screws us against any kind of motion. 
• We play off the line in coverage because we're not worried about the short pass.

[Smidgeon]

36 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I think you nailed it.

I think there's an issue with the perception vs the reality of what Pettine is. 

Pettine looks like an old school football coach. Pettine runs a defense that's founded on new age analytical concepts.

Those concepts seem to be:

1. The run can't hurt you. Even at 5 yards per run, inevitably somebody is going to false start or hold or one of your studs is going to win a rep.

2. Creating big plays on defense and stopping big plays on offense matters infinitely more than down-to-down consistency.

• So we play two deep safeties to prevent the deep pass which leaves us light in the box.
• We play with a safety instead of an ILB to help against the pass which leaves us light in the box.
• We refuse to compromise zone concepts against heavy personnel which screws us against any kind of motion. 
• We play off the line in coverage because we're not worried about the short pass.

I think the basis of the defense is fine.  But the bullet callouts need adjustments.  I don't know how to do that within the scheme (if I did, I'd be coaching), but conceptually, I get it.

[PACKRULE]

36 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I think you nailed it.

I think there's an issue with the perception vs the reality of what Pettine is. 

Pettine looks like an old school football coach. Pettine runs a defense that's founded on new age analytical concepts.

Those concepts seem to be:

1. The run can't hurt you. Even at 5 yards per run, inevitably somebody is going to false start or hold or one of your studs is going to win a rep.

2. Creating big plays on defense and stopping big plays on offense matters infinitely more than down-to-down consistency.

• So we play two deep safeties to prevent the deep pass which leaves us light in the box.
• We play with a safety instead of an ILB to help against the pass which leaves us light in the box.
• We refuse to compromise zone concepts against heavy personnel which screws us against any kind of motion. 
• We play off the line in coverage because we're not worried about the short pass.

So we are strictly playing the law of averages no wonder we're so ugly. No down to down adjustments just same old same cause eventually they gonna throw the ball. Nothing wrong with analytics but sheesh a full steady diet down after down is going to be brutal when our offense isn't producing or when we play stronger teams.

[Packerraymond]

Man do I hate his run fits.

We actually lead the league in pass plays over 20 yards given up this year. If we could actually figure out how to stop making every 4-8 yard pass automatic (ahem play a press man - 2) and actually had a functional run defense, we could be good.

[AlexGreen#20]

1 hour ago, PACKRULE said:

So we are strictly playing the law of averages no wonder we're so ugly. No down to down adjustments just same old same cause eventually they gonna throw the ball. Nothing wrong with analytics but sheesh a full steady diet down after down is going to be brutal when our offense isn't producing or when we play stronger teams.

There's plenty of down to down adjustments. But those adjustments all slant towards playing lighter. 

[MrBobGray]

1 hour ago, PACKRULE said:

I can't really answer your question Bob but it sure seems like it.

Well stated though we do not seem to be playing to our strengths. Pettine did more in year 1 with less then he did in year 2 and 3 with more.

The funny thing is, that actually makes sense given the scheme he's running.  I'm sure there's been a fair number of changes since 2018, but his overall concepts play better with a roster that needs blitzing.  Cover-4 is really effective if you're consistently mixing it with Cover-1/3/0/whatever to bring pressure on passing downs.  If the QB is uncertain whether he's facing four deep with time or one deep with little time, just that simple confusion alone already gets you a good chunk of the way to a successful play regardless of the quality of your personnel.  Being somewhat forced to blitz and be exotic to generate pressure meant that Pettine had to be varied in his coverage, because the variety of plays required a variety of coverages.  Now though, Pettine has the luxury of sitting back and just letting his front "four" rush, which is exposing a lot of the issues his defensive alignments have when it comes to really getting good value out of his personnel.  

And even more damning, as I ignore my work to peruse statistics online, is how in conflict that's putting Pettine with the rest of the league.  First, let's take a look at Pettine's blitz rates since he's gotten to Green Bay:

• 2018 - 29.3% blitz rate; 175 blitzes
• 2019 - 22.7% blitz rate; 139 blitzes
• 2020 - 23.1% blitz rate; 42 blitzes, on pace for 134 blitzes

So here's the first quirk of the data: despite blitzing at a marginally higher rate in 2020, the Packers are on track to blitz the fewest total times in Pettine's tenure.  Given that the defense has struggled badly in the passing game, especially at affecting the QB in the pocket (league worst 4.9% hurry percentage), that's a concerning number.  But it gets worse!

• In 2018, no team blitzed >40% of the time.  8 teams blitzed >30% of the time, with Baltimore at #1 (2nd in points allowed, 1st in yards allowed)
• In 2019, two teams blitzed >40% of the time, Baltimore again the leader at 54.9% of the time (Baltimore, 3rd in points/4th in yards.)  10 teams blitzed > 30% of the time.
• 2020?  Oh boy.  Four teams are >40% - this time, Baltimore finished at #2 behind league leader Pittsburgh (3rd in points/2nd in yards), 46.3% vs 46.1%.  Just in case anyone somehow still thinks you only blitz if you don't have pass rushers.  12 teams are above 30%.

How's blitzing related to total defense so far this year?  Well, of the top 10 defenses by points in the NFL so far in 2020 (yes I adjusted for games played), 7 blitzed >30% (Baltimore/Arizona/Pittsburgh/Miami/Tampa/KC/SF).  The four in bold are the four that blitzed >40% of the time.  That's right, every team >40% blitzing is in the top 10 defense by points scored.  

You don't have to blitz to have a good defense (2/10 teams in the top 10 total defense blitzed <20%) and that's not necessarily the biggest issue with Pettine.  But I do think it's pretty emblematic of the issues he's running into.  He's playing passive defense in a league that's increasingly moving away from that, and he's doing so because he misunderstood the analytics.  @AlexGreen#20's point about him playing new age analytics definitely tracks with his play-calling, but in a negative way.  He understands that the passing game is the threat in today's NFL, but doesn't seem to fully grasp how to adjust his defenses to defend against the variety of ways it gets employed.  He's trying a one-size fits all, big DB amoeba approach that, like, sort of makes sense?  If you squint just right?  But it's easy to see in practice how it falls apart; there's just no real threat there, and teams are getting far too good at attacking all the soft spots on the field.  They need to start leaving some of their stud DBs on islands for real on a more regular basis, and put the guys like Greene/Barnes who have legitimate value blitzing but aren't special in coverage in a position to actually affect the passing game. 

** - Side note, every now and then I remember the time Barnes came on a blitz and absolutely leveled the RB in pass protection and just spend a minute chuckling to myself.  More of that please.

[deathstar]

Good stuff guys.

[MacReady]

4 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

The funny thing is, that actually makes sense given the scheme he's running.  I'm sure there's been a fair number of changes since 2018, but his overall concepts play better with a roster that needs blitzing.  Cover-4 is really effective if you're consistently mixing it with Cover-1/3/0/whatever to bring pressure on passing downs.  If the QB is uncertain whether he's facing four deep with time or one deep with little time, just that simple confusion alone already gets you a good chunk of the way to a successful play regardless of the quality of your personnel.  Being somewhat forced to blitz and be exotic to generate pressure meant that Pettine had to be varied in his coverage, because the variety of plays required a variety of coverages.  Now though, Pettine has the luxury of sitting back and just letting his front "four" rush, which is exposing a lot of the issues his defensive alignments have when it comes to really getting good value out of his personnel.  

And even more damning, as I ignore my work to peruse statistics online, is how in conflict that's putting Pettine with the rest of the league.  First, let's take a look at Pettine's blitz rates since he's gotten to Green Bay:

• 2018 - 29.3% blitz rate; 175 blitzes
• 2019 - 22.7% blitz rate; 139 blitzes
• 2020 - 23.1% blitz rate; 42 blitzes, on pace for 134 blitzes

So here's the first quirk of the data: despite blitzing at a marginally higher rate in 2020, the Packers are on track to blitz the fewest total times in Pettine's tenure.  Given that the defense has struggled badly in the passing game, especially at affecting the QB in the pocket (league worst 4.9% hurry percentage), that's a concerning number.  But it gets worse!

• In 2018, no team blitzed >40% of the time.  8 teams blitzed >30% of the time, with Baltimore at #1 (2nd in points allowed, 1st in yards allowed)
• In 2019, two teams blitzed >40% of the time, Baltimore again the leader at 54.9% of the time (Baltimore, 3rd in points/4th in yards.)  10 teams blitzed > 30% of the time.
• 2020?  Oh boy.  Four teams are >40% - this time, Baltimore finished at #2 behind league leader Pittsburgh (3rd in points/2nd in yards), 46.3% vs 46.1%.  Just in case anyone somehow still thinks you only blitz if you don't have pass rushers.  12 teams are above 30%.

How's blitzing related to total defense so far this year?  Well, of the top 10 defenses by points in the NFL so far in 2020 (yes I adjusted for games played), 7 blitzed >30% (Baltimore/Arizona/Pittsburgh/Miami/Tampa/KC/SF).  The four in bold are the four that blitzed >40% of the time.  That's right, every team >40% blitzing is in the top 10 defense by points scored.  

You don't have to blitz to have a good defense (2/10 teams in the top 10 total defense blitzed <20%) and that's not necessarily the biggest issue with Pettine.  But I do think it's pretty emblematic of the issues he's running into.  He's playing passive defense in a league that's increasingly moving away from that, and he's doing so because he misunderstood the analytics.  @AlexGreen#20's point about him playing new age analytics definitely tracks with his play-calling, but in a negative way.  He understands that the passing game is the threat in today's NFL, but doesn't seem to fully grasp how to adjust his defenses to defend against the variety of ways it gets employed.  He's trying a one-size fits all, big DB amoeba approach that, like, sort of makes sense?  If you squint just right?  But it's easy to see in practice how it falls apart; there's just no real threat there, and teams are getting far too good at attacking all the soft spots on the field.  They need to start leaving some of their stud DBs on islands for real on a more regular basis, and put the guys like Greene/Barnes who have legitimate value blitzing but aren't special in coverage in a position to actually affect the passing game. 

** - Side note, every now and then I remember the time Barnes came on a blitz and absolutely leveled the RB in pass protection and just spend a minute chuckling to myself.  More of that please.

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