Turtle’s 🐢 2021 Mock Offseason

[Vladimir L]

JuJu hasnt been a true #1 since AB left. We are giving him #1 money so dont say but with McLauren he will be fine  He hasnt out up numbers and isnt even the main threat anymore. 

 

I think we can prob land OBJ for a 3rd 

[e16bball]

Quick Hit Thoughts:

1. I think the Scherff contract is probably about right. With them deciding not to trade him, I think they almost have to keep him. Particularly since (in an offseason like the one you laid out especially) I don’t know that we can even count on comp picks coming back for departing FAs. Still think they probably should have traded him, but oh well. 

2. I think the Roullier contract is too low. Based on what I’m seeing of the top C contracts this season, it looks like that would barely crack the top 20. I don’t think he’ll get top money, but I think he’s likely to get at least $7-8M AAV in his next deal. 

3. Definitely would not trade a 3rd for Njoku. I just don’t see it with this guy. He barely played last year and he’s got 8 catches this year. As another poster pointed out, you’re giving that valuable pick up for an expensive one-year rental. If they want to dump for a 5th or 6th, then he can be my huckleberry. But that 3rd is a really stiff price, I couldn’t justify it. 

4. I’m torn on giving JuJu that kind of money. On one hand, that’s WR1 money, and I think we see now that he’s not a true WR1. I would prefer not to pay him that much. On the other hand, we happen to have an actual WR1 for a bargain price for another two seasons, and this guy has shown he can shred it as a second option. We’re going to have to overpay for a good WR because of our QB situation, as others have pointed out, so perhaps we’d get our money’s worth. I would be down for the aggressive play. 

5. I don’t consider Avery Williamson a 4-3 MLB. I’m not sure he’s every played in a 4-3. To me, he’s a classic hard-nosed 3-4 ILB, tough coming downhill and shaky in coverage. Kind of a wealthier man’s Bostic, really. He’s a solid player, but I don’t know that I’d be paying him good money to be a MLB. 

6. I like the draft. Fields and Carman are elite physical talents at premium positions, so I think we’d definitely be getting some value and some big upside in the first 2 rounds. Both kinda raw to me, but I’d like to see what they’d become if they get coached up right. Still doubt we’re in position to get Fields though.

7. I can’t imagine a world in which Jevon Holland lasts till the 3rd, but I’d be turning cartwheels if we got him there. I think he’d be an absolute steal with our 2nd.

[turtle28]

5 hours ago, Vladimir L said:

JuJu hasnt been a true #1 since AB left. We are giving him #1 money so dont say but with McLauren he will be fine  He hasnt out up numbers and isnt even the main threat anymore. 

 

I think we can prob land OBJ for a 3rd 

Juju was hurt last year and Big Ben was out with a torn ligament in his elbow. You better check Juju’s performance this year. 
 

45 recs, 439 yds & 4 TDs. 
 

So he should end up with 90 receptions, around or over 1,000 yds and 8 plus TDs.

[Vladimir L]

3 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Juju was hurt last year and Big Ben was out with a torn ligament in his elbow. You better check Juju’s performance this year. 
 

45 recs, 439 yds & 4 TDs. 
 

So he should end up with 90 receptions, around or over 1,000 yds and 8 plus TDs.

90 catches 1000 yard isnt worth a top 5 wr contract he is a wr2

[turtle28]

6 hours ago, Vladimir L said:

90 catches 1000 yard isnt worth a top 5 wr contract he is a wr2

Here’s what you’re missing. We either overpay for a WR like Juju/Robinson etc or we’re going to have to settle for a guy like Inman again as our #2 or maybe a guy like a step above him. So, If you don’t want to overpay for Juju or Allen Robinson, I don’t want to hear anyone complain about the passing game and how we have NO weapons but Terry and our RBs.

Edited November 14, 2020 by turtle28

[LoganF89]

3 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Here’s what you’re missing. We either overpay for a WR like Juju/Robinson etc or we’re going to have to settle for a guy like Inman again as our #2 or maybe a guy like a step above him. So, If you don’t want to overpay for Juju or Allen Robinson, I don’t want to hear anyone complain about the passing game and how we have NO weapons but Terry and our RBs.

I believe I stated this before but I don’t believe with the amount of really good and top WRs expected to hit free agency that we will have to overpay to get one.

1. teams are gonna struggle if the cap stays the same or goes down. We aren’t one of those teams. We are in good cap space right now.

2. there are plenty of WRs hitting FA and possibly not resigned (JuJu, Golladay, Fuller, Godwin, Robinson, Samuel, Hilton, Green)

3. Teams are gonna be scared to shell out big contracts with the COVID-19 problems with the profits

4. if there ever was an off season to get a top talented WR it’s now. Can get one on a good deal due to COVID affecting teams spending and with the abundance of WRs

this is honestly one of the best things that could happen to our squad looking for a WR, the only thing that could possibly hold us back from a top young WR is our QB situation, but hopefully they can see that Terry is still putting up numbers and we could grab one.

my wish list is JUJU, Godwin, Robinson, or Galloday. I’ll take any of the 4

[turtle28]

1 minute ago, LoganF89 said:

JuJu, Golladay, Fuller, Godwin, Robinson, Samuel, Hilton, Green

All of these guys are going to get paid at least $10 mil a year on a next deal - unless the cap shrinks by $10-15 million bc of COVID which I think is extremely possible.

I think that Samuel is very likely for us bc of his familiarity in the O and with Rivera/Turner but I think we’re going to have to overpay to get him bc he could go to a playoff team or stay in Carolina too if the money is equal and he’s definitely chose that over us. 
 

I’ll also point out that while I think he’s better than Steven Sims, I don’t know that it’s by a huge margin. 
 

Samuel is on pace for 76 recs, 752 yards and 4 TDs.

Before his injury Steven Sims was on pace for 50 recs, 800 yards and he probably would’ve had a handful of TDs too. 

[MikeT14]

It's why I am banking on a guy like Marvin Jones

[turtle28]

21 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

It's why I am banking on a guy like Marvin Jones

Yeah, that’s a guy I’ve wanted since 2016?? Whenever he signed with the Lions. I thought he’d come here & Gruden would want him bc he was drafted by Cincy & Gruden developed him in Cincy when he was their offensive coordinator. 
 

Just think if we had done what I wanted and signed Marvin Jones and then drafted another position like NT (Kenny Clark or Jaran Reed) instead of drafting Doctson.

Then, that means in 2018 we take Derwin James over Payne too.

Its amazing how one different decision can change your fortunes for future years.

Edited November 14, 2020 by turtle28

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Yeah, that’s a guy I’ve wanted since 2016?? Whenever he signed with the Lions. I thought he’d come here & Gruden would want him bc he was drafted by Cincy & Gruden developed him in Cincy when he was their offensive coordinator. 
 

Just think if we had done what I wanted and signed Marvin Jones and then drafted another position like NT (Kenny Clark or Jaran Reed) instead of drafting Doctson.

Then, that means in 2018 we take Derwin James over Payne too.

Its amazing how one different decision can change your fortunes for future years.

Probably would have been overkill to sign Marvin Jones for 5/$40M+ when they still had Garcon, DJax, Crowder, and Reed going into 2016. I guess an extraordinarily forward thinking team might have considered it, with Garcon and DJax both aging and in walk years — but that’s tough to ask a team to make a big FA outlay at probably their strongest overall position. 

Your overall point is well-taken, though. Adding youngish talent to the roster is rarely a bad choice. It can have a domino effect, as you describe, particularly in that it can keep you from getting stuck in a position where you’re drafting for need. Having to heavily weight positional needs over pure talent is one of the big reasons why you end up with less high-end talents over time. 

To this staff’s credit, I’ve been very critical of them for various things, but they definitely did not get sucked into drafting for current need. They took the guy they thought was the best talent on the first two days, at the very least, and it looks like we got two keepers out of it. Like I’ve said elsewhere, I’m concerned about this year with LT — I’m afraid our hand may be forced if we’re picking at a certain point in the 1st. 

[offbyone]

I think you did a good job with the direction of this.  You plugged most of the holes. 

I completely agree with picking up a high end WR in Free Agency.  Juju is certainly an option, there are quite a few and they all have to land somewhere, we should be a landing spot for one.

Personally, Fields is a big question mark in my mind.  But it is a valid option.

I still worry about our oline.  This is especially a big issue if you are selecting a qb that currently has enough time to drink a beer before he has to get rid of the ball.  Really tough decisions here.  Signing Scherff is such a tough one.  I don't know the right answer.  I was all for extending him last year.  With the additional injury, I am just not sure.  I think Roullier at that price is a no brainer.  We are left with a question mark at left tackle.  Now if Charles proves he can dominate at left guard and doesn't get hurt every time the wind blows then we might be ok.  But  that is a big question mark.

I hate the 1 year deals.  They have seen enough of moreau and even foster in practice to either secure them long term or move on.  Plus, no way Moreau signs a 1 year deal for that cheap.  

Collins likely isn't going to be ready until after the season starts.  You can't add changing positions on top of that.  

I don't draft a WR.  We have enough young WRs on this roster.  We need high ceiling oline, linebackers, etc.

[turtle28]

22 hours ago, e16bball said:

Probably would have been overkill to sign Marvin Jones for 5/$40M+ when they still had Garcon, DJax, Crowder, and Reed going into 2016. I guess an extraordinarily forward thinking team might have considered it, with Garcon and DJax both aging and in walk years — but that’s tough to ask a team to make a big FA outlay at probably their strongest overall position. 

Your overall point is well-taken, though. Adding youngish talent to the roster is rarely a bad choice. It can have a domino effect, as you describe, particularly in that it can keep you from getting stuck in a position where you’re drafting for need. Having to heavily weight positional needs over pure talent is one of the big reasons why you end up with less high-end talents over time. 

To this staff’s credit, I’ve been very critical of them for various things, but they definitely did not get sucked into drafting for current need. They took the guy they thought was the best talent on the first two days, at the very least, and it looks like we got two keepers out of it. Like I’ve said elsewhere, I’m concerned about this year with LT — I’m afraid our hand may be forced if we’re picking at a certain point in the 1st. 

Well my actual thought in 2016 was to cut Garçon and sign Marvin Jones. I felt Garçon was overpaid - not by much but by a few million - back then Garçon was paid like a #1 but he wasn’t one.  It wasn’t a popular thought in the forum but I saw Garçon has a good receiver who didn’t have the ability to high point/track balls very well like that. Jones can do that as well as what Garçon did and he was younger.

Edited November 15, 2020 by turtle28

[turtle28]

3 hours ago, offbyone said:

I think you did a good job with the direction of this.  You plugged most of the holes. 

I completely agree with picking up a high end WR in Free Agency.  Juju is certainly an option, there are quite a few and they all have to land somewhere, we should be a landing spot for one.

Personally, Fields is a big question mark in my mind.  But it is a valid option.

I still worry about our oline.  This is especially a big issue if you are selecting a qb that currently has enough time to drink a beer before he has to get rid of the ball.  Really tough decisions here.  Signing Scherff is such a tough one.  I don't know the right answer.  I was all for extending him last year.  With the additional injury, I am just not sure.  I think Roullier at that price is a no brainer.  We are left with a question mark at left tackle.  Now if Charles proves he can dominate at left guard and doesn't get hurt every time the wind blows then we might be ok.  But  that is a big question mark.

I hate the 1 year deals.  They have seen enough of moreau and even foster in practice to either secure them long term or move on.  Plus, no way Moreau signs a 1 year deal for that cheap.  

Collins likely isn't going to be ready until after the season starts.  You can't add changing positions on top of that.  

I don't draft a WR.  We have enough young WRs on this roster.  We need high ceiling oline, linebackers, etc.

I had us drafting Carman the LT from Clemson to come in and compete w/ Christian, Charles & Lucas to be our starting LT.

We do that and Carman works out and then Charles works out at LG and we have a solid OL I think.

[turtle28]

 

[offbyone]

I see you are staying kicker neutral.  You need to get Hopkins off this roster