A Thought Experiment On Changes To Make

[MKnight82]

On 11/13/2017 at 6:15 PM, footy_29 said:

It would get done, but it would equal ~4% of the salary cap. Is Brown 10 times more valuable than Spaight out there? That's the difference in pay there.

I don't think Spaight is a starter.  So when you look at the fact that we'll have to either pay another FA or spend a high draft pick on one, I feel like paying Brown the money is worth it rather than creating another hole on our roster.  

On 11/13/2017 at 6:15 PM, footy_29 said:

Drafting a player in the second round would be 15% of the cost of having Brown. This isn't London Fletcher leader of the defense and original Ironman we're talking about here. Kerrigan and Swearinger are the leaders of this defense.

Let's work this out further. 

Building off what I have above, you have 39 million to sign 36 players, and your first three draft picks are going to cost you shy of 4 million and let's not forget the need to have money in-season for injury replacements and dead cap (conservative: ~5 million). If you sign Brown to 6, you have 24 million left for 32 players.

Sign Brown, and can you find ~5 starters and 27 depth/role players for 24 million?

I'm not sure what those numbers are coming from, but according to spotrac we have 34 players already under contract for next season:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-redskins/

QB McCoy

HB Thompson, Perine, Kelley, Marshall

WR Doctson, Crowder, 

TE Reed, Davis, Sprinkle

OT Williams, Moses, Clemmings

OG Scherff

OC Roullier

 

DE McClain, Allen, Lanier, Ionnidis

NT McGee, Hood

OLB Kerrigan, Smith, Anderson

MLB Spaight, Harvey-Clemons

CB Norman, Fuller, Moreau, Holsey

S Swearinger, Nicholson, Cravens

P Way

Now one of those players (Cravens) will almost certainly not be with the team.  So let's just say its 33 players.  Then there are these guys we have as ERFAs or RFAs that we can sign back for really cheap:

WR Harris (RFA)

LT Nsekhe (RFA)

CB Dunbar (RFA)

S Everett (RFA)

K Rose (ERFA)

Now obviously not all of these guys are worth bringing back, and some upgrades are needed but I that's approximately 20 players needed and only 15 if you count the cheap RFAs.  

 

The big missing name is Cousins, who for this exercise let's just assume resigns with the Redskins (otherwise we'd almost definitely be looking for a QB early in the draft).  Spotrac says we have approximately $51 mil in cap space next year.  Let's say he'll take up approximately $26 mil of that cap, that leaves $25 mil.  To retain all of the RFAs, let's project another $4 off of that, so $21 mil-ish.  

 

So what are we missing with those 33 players + 5 RFAs + Cousins resigning?  Well well we really don't have a legitimate starting RB.  The WR core would be down to Doctson, Crowder and Harris only.  We'd lose Long at Center but Roullier seems to be groomed to take his spot.  We lose Lauvao at LG and really have no replacement for him.  

On defense we still have McClain, Allen, Lanier, and Ionnidis at DE.  Could Allen and Ionnidis be the starters at DE?  That isn't a terrible combo.  NT we have McGee and Hood, who IMO neither are starters.  OLB is fine.  We'd only be left with Spaight and JHC at MLB, neither of which have proven to be able to start.  We'd lose Breeland at CB but still have Norman, Fuller, Moreau, Holsey, and could reasonable retain Dunbar.  The starter appear set at Safety to me with Swearinger and Nicholson, and we'd have Everett back cheap.  

Special teams would have Way and Rose back.  

 

So draft/FA needs would be:

Starting HB

Starting LG

Backup Guard

Backup Center

#1 or #2 WR depending on what you think of Doctson

#5 WR

Starting NT

DE Backup

Starting MLB 1

Starting MLB 2

 

A lot of the depth will come from the draft again.  The 2017 is currently counting a total of about $6.5 mil against the cap, that's with 9 draft picks currently on the active roster.  The Redskins only have 8 picks for 2018, and don't have two 4ths like before, which are more expensive.  So let's estimate the rookies will cost us about $6 mil.  We're down to $15 mil now for free agents.  So the 33 players + 5 RFAs + 8 rookies you're at 46 players.  So we're only missing 6 players (don't forget the Rule of 52).  

Now the issue with the needs list to me is the number of starters that are needed.  HB, LG, WR, NT, and two MLBs is 6 starters needed.  Whoever our First Round pick will be will almost certainly start, and that's built into the rookie cost already used so lower the starter needs down to 5.  So we need 5 new starters either from within or from FA with only $15 mil in cap space.  That sounds pretty insurmountable.  So if you look at it that cut and dry, wow yeah how can we retain Zach Brown?  

Wait I know how, let's cut the dead weight.  

Cutting Terrell McClain saves $3.5 mil (post June 1st cut)

Cutting Stacy McGee saves $4.0 mil (post June 1st cut)

Cutting Rob Kelly saves $613k

Cutting Ziggy Hood saves $1.25 mil

Cutting Sua Cravens saves $500k

 

That's nearly $10 mil right there.  We wouldn't lose anything by cutting these guys IMO.  So you'd have $25 mil left.  

Give Brown a $6-7 mil deal, Sign a FA LG and WR, use one of those mid round picks on a HB and hope that either Spaight or JHC can take over that other starting spot (or heck bring back Foster for a reasonable deal).  Maybe that first rounder is a MLB to go next to Brown.  I think $25 mil is definitely enough to retain Brown, sign a LG and WR, and fill out the rest of the depth chart (with also extending Cousins).

 

[MKnight82]

If anyone doesn't want to read that long winded response the short summary is:

How is it defense-able to keep Stacey McGee and Terrell McClain for a combined $9.55 mil against our cap next year, but not re-sign Zach Brown for a $6-7 mil deal?  

[LoganF89]

MKnight82 that might be the best post I have ever seen on this forum. I couldnt agree with you more on how to get Brown back

 

[turtle28]

I’ll be surprised if the Redskins cut both McGee and McClain and they probably won’t cut either of them. I understand that it would be ideal to sign or draft two other players who would be cheaper or equivalent to what they cost and possibly get better production than they’re giving us, but we can’t be certain about any of that. If we’re being honest as a Redskins fans, we should realize that the team never cuts the dead weight when we think they cut them an move on.

My thought process is that it’s true, McClain and McGee are nothing more than just serviceable starters, they are essentially C players aka jags. As depth though behind Allen, Ioannidis and a NT we draft or sign in FA, they’re fine with what they give us and while they are on the expensive end for back up/rotational players who play 1/3 of the snaps per game they essentially replace guys like RJF on the roster in both cost and what they give us.

So, IMO our 2018 DL rotation will be:

RDE: Allen, McClain, Lanier

NT: Draft pick/FA, Hood

LDE: Ioannidis, McGee

I’m sorry @MKnight82 I agree with you that moving on from McClain and McGee would be ideal but I just don’t see the Redskins cutting them after just one year.

I do agree that we’ll re-sign Brown, but I also agree with Footy in that while Brown is athletic and super fast for a man his size he’s not a leader on this defense. He’s not a London Fletcher type MLB, leader of the entire defense aka coach on the field.

I know this won’t make some people happy, but I do believe we will re-sign Grant, Long and then draft a WR or sign one in FA who should start over Grant and Harris. Of course, we could just re-sign Brian Quick again as he’s flashed some when he’s played and also draft a wr as well, preferably a speedster who can stretch the field. I also think we’ll draft a guard and sign one on the cheap in FA or maybe re-sign Lauvao if he only costs a few million and retain Kouandijo to compete for the starting LG spot too and maybe even Roullier would win that job next year and start at LG next to Long. I think we’ll give ourselves several options to fill the LG spot next year.

As for S, I do think we’ll draft another safety in the mid to late rounds again or sign a vet min guy. I don’t think we can just hand Everret the #3 safety job w/o some competition. Perhaps Fish Smithston can be that #3 or 4 safety and push/beat out Everret as the #3 safety but I don’t think we can just bank on that. We should draft or sign a guy who we think would be a depth upgrade behind Nicholson and Swearinger.

[MKnight82]

3 hours ago, turtle28 said:

I’ll be surprised if the Redskins cut both McGee and McClain and they probably won’t cut either of them. I understand that it would be ideal to sign or draft two other players who would be cheaper or equivalent to what they cost and possibly get better production than they’re giving us, but we can’t be certain about any of that. If we’re being honest as a Redskins fans, we should realize that the team never cuts the dead weight when we think they cut them an move on.

My thought process is that it’s true, McClain and McGee are nothing more than just serviceable starters, they are essentially C players aka jags. As depth though behind Allen, Ioannidis and a NT we draft or sign in FA, they’re fine with what they give us and while they are on the expensive end for back up/rotational players who play 1/3 of the snaps per game they essentially replace guys like RJF on the roster in both cost and what they give us.

So, IMO our 2018 DL rotation will be:

RDE: Allen, McClain, Lanier

NT: Draft pick/FA, Hood

LDE: Ioannidis, McGee

I’m sorry @MKnight82 I agree with you that moving on from McClain and McGee would be ideal but I just don’t see the Redskins cutting them after just one year.

I do agree that we’ll re-sign Brown, but I also agree with Footy in that while Brown is athletic and super fast for a man his size he’s not a leader on this defense. He’s not a London Fletcher type MLB, leader of the entire defense aka coach on the field.

I know this won’t make some people happy, but I do believe we will re-sign Grant, Long and then draft a WR or sign one in FA who should start over Grant and Harris. Of course, we could just re-sign Brian Quick again as he’s flashed some when he’s played and also draft a wr as well, preferably a speedster who can stretch the field. I also think we’ll draft a guard and sign one on the cheap in FA or maybe re-sign Lauvao if he only costs a few million and retain Kouandijo to compete for the starting LG spot too and maybe even Roullier would win that job next year and start at LG next to Long. I think we’ll give ourselves several options to fill the LG spot next year.

As for S, I do think we’ll draft another safety in the mid to late rounds again or sign a vet min guy. I don’t think we can just hand Everret the #3 safety job w/o some competition. Perhaps Fish Smithston can be that #3 or 4 safety and push/beat out Everret as the #3 safety but I don’t think we can just bank on that. We should draft or sign a guy who we think would be a depth upgrade behind Nicholson and Swearinger.

What you’re suggesting is impossible under the cap unless we make cuts or don’t resign Cousins.

[lavar703]

14 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

If anyone doesn't want to read that long winded response the short summary is:

How is it defense-able to keep Stacey McGee and Terrell McClain for a combined $9.55 mil against our cap next year, but not re-sign Zach Brown for a $6-7 mil deal?  

I think the team should cut McClain and McGee. Neither has made any real impact and aren't worth anywhere what they're being paid. I also agree with re-signing Brown. I don't even see how not retaining him is a viable option? 

[MKnight82]

2 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

I think the team should cut McClain and McGee. Neither has made any real impact and aren't worth anywhere what they're being paid. I also agree with re-signing Brown. I don't even see how not retaining him is a viable option? 

Not retaining Brown is an option if we use a high draft pick on a MLB, and either retain Foster on the cheap or promote Spaight to being a starter.  However, I’d argue our MLBs would be even better doing the scenario I posted above, retaining Brown AND drafting a MLB high.

[lavar703]

11 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Not retaining Brown is an option if we use a high draft pick on a MLB, and either retain Foster on the cheap or promote Spaight to being a starter.  However, I’d argue our MLBs would be even better doing the scenario I posted above, retaining Brown AND drafting a MLB high.

I think the best thing to do is retain Brown. I'd like to see what Spaight does the rest of the way. Same with Perine. 

[MKnight82]

1 hour ago, lavar703 said:

I think the best thing to do is retain Brown. I'd like to see what Spaight does the rest of the way. Same with Perine. 

Ya I agree on Brown.  You can get really technical and look at all the cap stuff like I did in the post above, or you can keep it simple and just say, hey we've got some holes to fill on this team for next year and creating another hole by letting Brown go is counterproductive.  

[footy_29]

6 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

Not retaining Brown is an option if we use a high draft pick on a MLB, and either retain Foster on the cheap or promote Spaight to being a starter.  However, I’d argue our MLBs would be even better doing the scenario I posted above, retaining Brown AND drafting a MLB high.

I think Spaight is a starter. Keeping Foster to be a stop-gap for a first or second round rookie LB is plausible.

21 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

A lot of the depth will come from the draft again.  The 2017 is currently counting a total of about $6.5 mil against the cap, that's with 9 draft picks currently on the active roster.  The Redskins only have 8 picks for 2018, and don't have two 4ths like before, which are more expensive.  So let's estimate the rookies will cost us about $6 mil.  We're down to $15 mil now for free agents.  So the 33 players + 5 RFAs + 8 rookies you're at 46 players.  So we're only missing 5 players (don't forget the Rule of 51).  

Now the issue with the needs list to me is the number of starters that are needed.  HB, LG, WR, NT, and two MLBs is 6 starters needed.  Whoever our First Round pick will be will almost certainly start, and that's built into the rookie cost already used so lower the starter needs down to 5.  So we need 5 new starters either from within or from FA with only $15 mil in cap space.  That sounds pretty insurmountable.  So if you look at it that cut and dry, wow yeah how can we retain Zach Brown?  

Wait I know how, let's cut the dead weight.  

Cutting Terrell McClain saves $3.5 mil (post June 1st cut)

Cutting Stacy McGee saves $4.0 mil (post June 1st cut)

Cutting Rob Kelly saves $613k

Cutting Ziggy Hood saves $1.25 mil

Cutting Sua Cravens saves $500k

That's nearly $10 mil right there.  We wouldn't lose anything by cutting these guys IMO.  So you'd have $25 mil left.  

Cutting your three veteran DL is not a smart move considering the market is usually thin, and s

Quote

Cutting your three veteran DL is not a smart move considering the market is usually thin, and s

10 hours ago, turtle28 said:

I’ll be surprised if the Redskins cut both McGee and McClain and they probably won’t cut either of them. I understand that it would be ideal to sign or draft two other players who would be cheaper or equivalent to what they cost and possibly get better production than they’re giving us, but we can’t be certain about any of that. If we’re being honest as a Redskins fans, we should realize that the team never cuts the dead weight when we think they cut them an move on.

So, IMO our 2018 DL rotation will be:

RDE: Allen, McClain, Lanier

NT: Draft pick/FA, Hood

LDE: Ioannidis, McGee

I’m sorry @MKnight82 I agree with you that moving on from McClain and McGee would be ideal but I just don’t see the Redskins cutting them after just one year.

I do agree that we’ll re-sign Brown, but I also agree with Footy in that while Brown is athletic and super fast for a man his size he’s not a leader on this defense. He’s not a London Fletcher type MLB, leader of the entire defense aka coach on the field.

I know this won’t make some people happy, but I do believe we will re-sign Grant, Long and then draft a WR or sign one in FA who should start over Grant and Harris. Of course, we could just re-sign Brian Quick again as he’s flashed some when he’s played and also draft a wr as well, preferably a speedster who can stretch the field. I also think we’ll draft a guard and sign one on the cheap in FA or maybe re-sign Lauvao if he only costs a few million and retain Kouandijo to compete for the starting LG spot too and maybe even Roullier would win that job next year and start at LG next to Long. I think we’ll give ourselves several options to fill the LG spot next year.

Bang on turtle.

Just can't move on from those guys. Maybe McGee as stated, but you have to find a guy for around a million who is going to be better than McGee and that's not assay as it seems on first blush. Grant/Quick and Long/Kouandjo would certainly be inexpensive options giving continuity. I expect a good amount of those signings this off-season, including Galette and Murphy.   

Quote

As for S, I do think we’ll draft another safety in the mid to late rounds again or sign a vet min guy. I don’t think we can just hand Everret the #3 safety job w/o some competition. Perhaps Fish Smithston can be that #3 or 4 safety and push/beat out Everret as the #3 safety but I don’t think we can just bank on that. We should draft or sign a guy who we think would be a depth upgrade behind Nicholson and Swearinger.

Everett is a #4 Special teams guy that'll be cheap but they'll move on from the year after. Maybe even this off-season depending on the classroom aspect. I'm not sure that Nicholson is the answer, but I do think the DeAngelo Hall experiment in more than minimal snaps is over as soon as Nicholson's shoulder is healed enough to last the rest of the season. Would argue that a veteran free agent signing is highly probable. 

7 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

What you’re suggesting is impossible under the cap unless we make cuts or don’t resign Cousins.

Or they give him a lot of guaranteed dollars.

 

[footy_29]

Didn't quite get that last post right...

I see Spaight as a Ted LB with some room to improve and worth letting that development play out, and therefore Brown is expendable. I don't see Spaight as the leader of this defense and a true leader is needed in the next two drafts, and almost entirely necessary to use one of the first or second rounders to get one with the mental make-up. I'd rather it be this year but there are interesting players defensive tackle/end prospects in the latter half of the first round. If they can get a lineman early, Hood is probably the one to go, if not Lanier because of perceived veteran impact. 

Ideally they bring back Baker after his 1 yr 6million for sub 3 million as one of the free agent signings. I'd still keep McGee behind him.

LE - Allen, Hood
NT - Baker/Taylor, McGee
RE - Ioannidis, McClain, Lanier

For better or worse, I see a lot of blame places on injuries and Pryor being a bad signing as the reasons for a difficult season. Particularly if the Redskins do well down the stretch as I expect them to, there will not be a ton of pressure to overturn the roster. 

[MKnight82]

2 minutes ago, footy_29 said:

Didn't quite get that last post right...

I see Spaight as a Ted LB with some room to improve and worth letting that development play out, and therefore Brown is expendable. I don't see Spaight as the leader of this defense and a true leader is needed in the next two drafts, and almost entirely necessary to use one of the first or second rounders to get one with the mental make-up. I'd rather it be this year but there are interesting players defensive tackle/end prospects in the latter half of the first round. If they can get a lineman early, Hood is probably the one to go, if not Lanier because of perceived veteran impact. 

Ideally they bring back Baker after his 1 yr 6million for sub 3 million as one of the free agent signings. I'd still keep McGee behind him.

LE - Allen, Hood
NT - Baker/Taylor, McGee
RE - Ioannidis, McClain, Lanier

For better or worse, I see a lot of blame places on injuries and Pryor being a bad signing as the reasons for a difficult season. Particularly if the Redskins do well down the stretch as I expect them to, there will not be a ton of pressure to overturn the roster. 

Can I ask what you see in McGee and McClain?  Because they never do anything of merit on the field.  They aren't being paid backup money either, we're paying them like starters.  They are JAGs IMO, and you can't pay JAGs 9.5 mil of your cap.  The F.O. and staff seemed to have moved on from Baker, doubt he's brought back here.  

[turtle28]

9 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

What you’re suggesting is impossible under the cap unless we make cuts or don’t resign Cousins.

Depends on the costs of re-signing some of these guys and I think once again most of our upgrades will come through the draft. I don’t think well spend big on any offensive player to retain them or sign a costly player via free agency, we’ll retain our own and maybe sign a guy or two who have talent but won’t break the bank. I think we’ll mostly retain our own guys on offense and preferably I’d like to see them draft a speedy WR & a RB rather than get that guy in free agency and re-signing Grant and/or quick won’t cost much. The only offensive player who could be more costly to retain would be Long.

On defense we probably won’t retain Breeland as you’ve said since draft day or Hall and Norman’s cap number goes down by a few million next year so our secondary will actually be cheaper in 2018. Compton could be gone in favor of a draft pick, so that’s a savings. The only player we’ll spend more on to retain on defense will be Brown and I think his average per year will be double what it is this year but not his cap hit #. They can structure his deal so that his cap hit could be around the same as it is this year. 

As for Cousins, “if he’s retained on a long term deal” his cap number for next year should be around what he costs this year on the franchise tag, so that’s not really an increase in cost there.

Lastly, did you or Spotrac/over the cap factor in that the cap is going to be raised next year by $10 to $15 million, that will also give us more cap room, but I don’t think the raise in the cap has been determined yet by the league.

[turtle28]

9 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

Not retaining Brown is an option if we use a high draft pick on a MLB, and either retain Foster on the cheap or promote Spaight to being a starter.  However, I’d argue our MLBs would be even better doing the scenario I posted above, retaining Brown AND drafting a MLB high.

That’s what I’d like to do but it depends on how the draft falls. If the BPA’s aren’t ILB in round 1 or 2, we should go in another direction and take the BPA in a position we need like WR, RB, OG in round 2 or later or a NT.

[MKnight82]

4 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Depends on the costs of re-signing some of these guys and I think once again most of our upgrades will come through the draft. I don’t think well spend big on any offensive player to retain them or add a new player via free agency. I think we’ll mostly retain our own guys on offense and preferably I’d like to see them draft a speedy WR & a RB rather than get that guy in free agency and re-signing Grant and/or quick won’t cost much. The only offensive player who could be more costly to retain would be Long.

You can't retain Cousins, Long, Lauvao and Brown without cutting players.  You won't be able to field a 53 man roster.  That is what you suggested which is why I said it would be impossible unless you start restructuring contracts and pushing cap into future years (which is bad).  

6 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Compton could be gone in favor of a draft pick, so that’s a savings.

Compton is a free agent so he doesn't save us anything.  

7 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

The only player we’ll spend more on to retain on defense will be Brown and I think his average per year will be double what he is this year but not his cap hit. They can structure his deal so that his cap hit could be around the same as it is this year. 

This will be Brown's second strong season in a row, he isn't going to sign for peanuts.  If you look at how comparable MLBs are being paid and the structure of those contracts they aren't anywhere near as cheap as you are implying.  

9 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

As for Cousins, “if he’s retained on a long term deal” his cap number for next year should be around what he costs this year on the franchise tag, so that’s no5 really an increase in cost there.

The best two comparables for Cousins potential contract is the Derek Carr and Matthew Stafford deals.  Carr is $25 mil and Stafford's is $26.5 mil.  Contracts are always inflating not getting cheaper.  Cousins costs approximately $24 mil this year.  His cost is going to go up not down.  

14 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Lastly, did you factor in that the cap is going to be raised next year by $10 to $15 million, that will also give us more cap room, but I don’t think the raise in the cap has been determined yet by the league.

No but counting on the cap to go up is highly speculative.  Spoctrac at this time is only projecting it to go up $1 mil, which is probably low.  The Redskins will also likely be able to roll over an extra $5 mil cap savings from this year.  Spending that amount up to the cap would be somewhat dangerous though since that roll over is a one time deal (if we didn't have more to roll over the next year).