Woz Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 5 hours ago, turtle28 said: Not going to happen. Pipe dream Okay ... while I don't necessarily disagree with you on this, do you have an alternative? How would you build for the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted November 11, 2017 Author Share Posted November 11, 2017 4 hours ago, Woz said: Okay ... while I don't necessarily disagree with you on this, do you have an alternative? How would you build for the future? Yup. This is what the thread is about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footy_29 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 On 2017-10-30 at 8:38 PM, Thaiphoon said: Quote Front Office Bruce = Fired. Run out on a rail...etc... along with any of his suck ups Coaches Jay = Bye Bye. Poor situational awareness. Poor discipline from his teams. Teams are never prepared to play. Manusky = I generally like the guy but a new coach may want his own DC. Either way, I want a guy who will change us back to the 4-3. All will/should stay. Not getting 5 years of McCloughan for the Redskins should be Bruce Allen's greatest criticism. That said, this organization is run better than with Cerrato and they essentially received three McCloughan drafts to fuel the future. Most owners need an advisor to keep them steady week-to-week and a bad-guy for the fans to channel their frustrations toward remains a good thing. Mostly, there is this seemingly nice trend of Eric Schaffer being a heavy lifter in the organization and affecting the roster composition/free agency increasingly. I like what this currently looks like, more than most traditional GM roles. Outside of the players giving up on Jay Gruden in this second half, he stays. Gruden has a strong staff and the players are responding, for the most part The thing I like most about this current team is the ability of the reserves to perform in their assignments and spot duty. They have also avoided penalties characteristic of a poorly coached/disciplined team. Quote ROSTER EVALS I differ on roster moves/assessments: Choose your stars/positions of importance and show your ability by assembling the rest of the roster. Shutdown corner, pass rusher (not elite), receiving mismatch, offensive line. Protect your QB (OL and TE) and neutralize the main outside receiver. I remember e16 being the first and essentially the only one advocating for/predicting Trent Williams. Criticized in the early years, false hype of Okung being clearly better and has proved to be likely the BPA at that selection, except arguable Berry. McCloughan comes in and drafts a RG at #5 - again, I would have made the difference choice. That said, Scherff looks All-Pro calibre. The team has made commitments to perceived valuable assets that dictate corresponding cost-savings in all other areas. QB Cousins = proj ~24MM/yrTE Reed and Davis = ~15MM avg next twoOL Williams/Moses and Scherff = +26MM/yrCB1 Norman = ~15.5MM for next threeRush Kerrigan = ~12.5 MM for next three Salary cap will be comparable leaving you with 62 million for the other 43 players of your top 51. McGee and McClain = ~9.5MM for next two Allen/Doctson/Anderson/Cravens = ~9.3 MM for next two Thompson = ~3.5 avg for two There's seven more, leaving you close to 39MM for 36 players. Choices. It's about choices and finding a lot of good deals. The pending free agent class must be worried about the prospects of returning. Hopefully some low-cost extensions for the like of Long, Galette, Murphy, Quick, Taylor in depth roles (and contracts) and one would assume most of the RFA class returns. The rest are likely gone - I fail to see the logic of keeping Breeland or Brown with the money tied up elsewhere, assuming large increases. Smith and Crowder to re-sign in 2019, and Scherff gets more expensive. Quote So assuming we get a 1st and 2nd for Trent and Reed and maybe a 4th for Doctson, we have enough to move around in the 1st in 2018. Or it allows us to move back and build up 1st rounders in 2019 and get our QB then. We still would need the following (besides QB) WR/RB/OL/TE/DL/LB -------- ^^^ Admittedly this would never happen. I'm just brainstorming on how best we can help the team long-term by selling guys high before they drop off and we get nothing from them. Too much valuation in draft picks and not enough valuation in development and roster construction. I find it hard to believe there is effective capitalization on assets by trading the players you propose. A lot of time and money was placed in securing the pieces needed for Kirk Cousins to succeed for the long-term, and I think he is more than aware of this. They are building this the way it should be by keeping Cousins upright with quality in front and low cost running and receiving options aside from the premier TE (ala Brees/Brady). That's how they'll balance the offense's share of the cap. Crowder and Grant benefited from Jackson and Garcon, Now there is: Fuller and Morneau from Norman Anderson from Kerrigan/Galette (Cravens from Swearinger) Spaight from Compton Ioannidis and Allen from Hood/McGee Nicholson from Hall Lanier from McClain Kouandjo from Lauvao Roster construction is about deciding your pillars and then knowing what kind of personalities/mentors you need for the incoming raw talent and whose motivation to bet on. P.S. McGee has been perfectly adequate and looks to be earning himself the full-time job at nose. McClain feels like a locker room/mentor hire, just like Ziggy Hood. Ioannidis, Allen and Lanier is too much youth in the room over the year, regardless of the maturation of those individuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lavar703 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 If you let Brown go, we essentially have nothing at ILB. What would be your plan for that, Footy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footy_29 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 hour ago, lavar703 said: If you let Brown go, we essentially have nothing at ILB. What would be your plan for that, Footy? The guys hitting the market include: Brown, Compton, Foster. Do you need all of them back? Spaight and Harvey-Clemons seem to have a future on the roster. I'd bring back Compton as a reserve giving you three. You have room for one more (draft pick) considering you may be tempted to keep 5 OLBs (Kerrigan, Smith, Anderson + Gallete/? +Murphy/?). Preston Smith could move inside on third downs if you want to stick with traditional 3-4, we saw him have success as an inside rusher in college. Finding two down LBs in the second and third downs can be done every year. Would Zach Brown sign long-term if it was 3.5/4.5/5.5/6.5/8.5MM? Is that good enough for him? That's under 20 for 4 (5 AAV) without that ghost year. There's a lot of money on the market from some teams. I like Brown. I think he lacks some situational awareness, but otherwise has saved a few touchdowns with his pursuit this year. He is choosing wrong gaps or getting sealed off increasingly as an offensive strategy. What can this team reasonably afford him though? This draft has inside backers that could allow you to presume that to be your Plan A. If you believe that Josh Harvey Clemons can be a pass-defending specialist and that Compton/Spaight can be passable for a year, than maybe that is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghostnote Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 47 minutes ago, footy_29 said: The guys hitting the market include: Brown, Compton, Foster. Do you need all of them back? Spaight and Harvey-Clemons seem to have a future on the roster. I'd bring back Compton as a reserve giving you three. You have room for one more (draft pick) considering you may be tempted to keep 5 OLBs (Kerrigan, Smith, Anderson + Gallete/? +Murphy/?). Preston Smith could move inside on third downs if you want to stick with traditional 3-4, we saw him have success as an inside rusher in college. Finding two down LBs in the second and third downs can be done every year. Would Zach Brown sign long-term if it was 3.5/4.5/5.5/6.5/8.5MM? Is that good enough for him? That's under 20 for 4 (5 AAV) without that ghost year. There's a lot of money on the market from some teams. I like Brown. I think he lacks some situational awareness, but otherwise has saved a few touchdowns with his pursuit this year. He is choosing wrong gaps or getting sealed off increasingly as an offensive strategy. What can this team reasonably afford him though? This draft has inside backers that could allow you to presume that to be your Plan A. If you believe that Josh Harvey Clemons can be a pass-defending specialist and that Compton/Spaight can be passable for a year, than maybe that is the case. Glad to see you back Footy. Been a while. That being said, this draft does not sport the kind of LB's that Zach Brown is: a thumper. A good one at that. Yes he does not do well in coverage, but he is better than ANYTHING we have put on that field since London Fletcher. If Micah Kiser, Rashaan Evans or Cameron Smith are available, then yes by all means. I would not bring back Compton. Spaight and Brown only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lavar703 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 As Mike said, glad to see you back Footy. While I disagree that we can move on from Brown, I do see your side of it. I think Harvey-Clemons has to put on some weight and I'd really rather move on from Compton. I kinda wonder if Anderson could make the move inside but I wish we would've just draft Cunningham. And I love Spaight. He's a thumper with great closing speed. He needs to be on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKnight82 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 2 hours ago, footy_29 said: The guys hitting the market include: Brown, Compton, Foster. Do you need all of them back? Spaight and Harvey-Clemons seem to have a future on the roster. I'd bring back Compton as a reserve giving you three. You have room for one more (draft pick) considering you may be tempted to keep 5 OLBs (Kerrigan, Smith, Anderson + Gallete/? +Murphy/?). Preston Smith could move inside on third downs if you want to stick with traditional 3-4, we saw him have success as an inside rusher in college. Finding two down LBs in the second and third downs can be done every year. Would Zach Brown sign long-term if it was 3.5/4.5/5.5/6.5/8.5MM? Is that good enough for him? That's under 20 for 4 (5 AAV) without that ghost year. There's a lot of money on the market from some teams. I like Brown. I think he lacks some situational awareness, but otherwise has saved a few touchdowns with his pursuit this year. He is choosing wrong gaps or getting sealed off increasingly as an offensive strategy. What can this team reasonably afford him though? This draft has inside backers that could allow you to presume that to be your Plan A. If you believe that Josh Harvey Clemons can be a pass-defending specialist and that Compton/Spaight can be passable for a year, than maybe that is the case. Footy!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm not sure exactly what it would take to bring Brown back. He's making $2.3 mil this season on a 1-year deal. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/inside-linebacker/ So good comparables IMO would be the Danny Trevathan or AJ Klein deals, they're both recently signed. They average $6-7 mil per season. Here's the Trevathan structure: YEAR AGE BASE SALARY SIGNING ROSTER WORKOUT CAP HIT DEAD CAP YEARLY CASH 2016 26 $1,500,000 $1,250,000 $3,500,000 $100,000 $6,350,000 $12,100,000 $10,100,000($10,100,000) 2017 27 $1,882,353 $1,250,000 $3,500,000 $100,000 $6,732,352 $9,450,000 $5,482,352($15,582,352) POTENTIAL OUT: 2018, 2 YR, $15,700,000; $2,500,000 DEAD CAP 2018 28 $5,800,000 $1,250,000 - $100,000 $7,150,000 $2,500,000 $5,900,000($21,482,352) 2019 29 $5,800,000 $1,250,000 $500,000 $100,000 $7,650,000 $1,250,000 $6,400,000($27,882,352) So something like that would probably get it done IMO. As far as the rest of the MLB core, I think Foster has been surprisingly solid. I would prefer to bring him back as a reserve over Will Compton if he were willing to take a backup role. I agree Spaight and JHC appear to be solid reserves. So that leaves us missing a starter opposite of Brown. If we retain Brown I doubt we will sign another expensive FA to play next to him. So the draft seems to be the way to go. We definitely have other needs, and I could argue that WR, LG, RB, & DE would all be bigger needs than another MLB. But I guess that depends on how the draft falls. If a stud MLB is there in the first or second round I could definitely see us going that route. Or maybe we settle for another 4th or 5th rounder and start the season with Brown and Foster starting again (this wouldn't be awul IMO). If you let Brown go though that MLB core starts looking really bad. IMO you'd have to sign another FA to replace him if he left, and wouldn't be better off just retaining the guy we know can play well for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanTaylorsaPIMP Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Talk about a great mid-season pickup for this forum.... Welcome back, Footy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKnight82 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 On 11/6/2017 at 4:02 PM, Woz said: Honest question: 1-32 with #1 being the best, where would you rank Gruden? Probably middle of the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Draper Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 28 and Brown- Pay the man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 As others have said, it's good to have you back @footy_29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footy_29 Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 6 hours ago, MKnight82 said: I'm not sure exactly what it would take to bring Brown back. He's making $2.3 mil this season on a 1-year deal. I doubt it will be as hot as he hopes, but if I have a bad team I am absolutely making a big play for Zach Brown to stem the bleeding. I'd pay more than market price for that speed in the open field. Quote http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/inside-linebacker/ So good comparables IMO would be the Danny Trevathan or AJ Klein deals, they're both recently signed. They average $6-7 mil per season. Here's the Trevathan structure: So something like that would probably get it done IMO. It would get done, but it would equal ~4% of the salary cap. Is Brown 10 times more valuable than Spaight out there? That's the difference in pay there. Drafting a player in the second round would be 15% of the cost of having Brown. This isn't London Fletcher leader of the defense and original Ironman we're talking about here. Kerrigan and Swearinger are the leaders of this defense. Let's work this out further. Building off what I have above, you have 39 million to sign 36 players, and your first three draft picks are going to cost you shy of 4 million and let's not forget the need to have money in-season for injury replacements and dead cap (conservative: ~5 million). If you sign Brown to 6, you have 24 million left for 32 players. Sign Brown, and can you find ~5 starters and 27 depth/role players for 24 million? You want to talk about difficult tasks, that would be right up there. Tough stuff this roster management when you have elite talent paid at market value. When you are re-building culture, you overpay for the blue-collar leaders that set the example in every aspect by their professionalism and heart. With a more competitive team, Kerrigan is a couple of million cheaper, and that is a huge difference to constructing the roster. This has clearly become a consideration in drafting. Let's look at defensive back for example. I think we saw it with Fuller and Moreau. Moreau as an outside guy and Fuller as an inside guy to replace Breeland next year and Dunbar in 2019. Dunbar is a stop gap for another year to make Moreau work his way over him on the depth chart. That gives you four corners, with another likely to be signed or drafted. Nicholson allows you to maintain low cost at safety, particularly if Cravens returns. Everett as a reserve for another year. That's the safety position. Choices on who stays seems already evident by the roster management. Quote I could argue that WR, LG, RB, & DE would all be bigger needs than another MLB. I'm betting on Kirk adjusting to the body control and vertical hops with Doctson. Crowder has solidified the slot. Cousins seems comfortable with Quick and Harris as the Z (referring to public comments) over Pryor or another new face. Robert Davis is probably the 6th receiver, so who is the fifth? Maybe a rookie but more likely a vet. Again, there are limits to how much you can afford on both sides of the ball, and teams tend to start saving money by going younger with receiving and running options (Saints with Brees, Colts with Manning, Pats with Brady). LG is the least important position on the line. Rouiller needs more upper strength, but would seem better suited than Long inside and frankly surprised that he's improved as much as he has week-to-week.. If the latter returns, he's the likely favorite to take Lauvao's spot. RB should almost always be a need, but a day three focus. DE McClain and McGee are here next year, Hood is here due to his contract and mentoring, Lanier due to his length and progression year-to-year - that one game audition was enough imo -, and Allen and Ioannidis are surely assured spots. Spots will be tough to come by on the DL (maybe one more spot available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 20 hours ago, footy_29 said: It would get done, but it would equal ~4% of the salary cap. Is Brown 10 times more valuable than Spaight out there? That's the difference in pay there. Drafting a player in the second round would be 15% of the cost of having Brown. This isn't London Fletcher leader of the defense and original Ironman we're talking about here. Kerrigan and Swearinger are the leaders of this defense. You mean a guy like Zach Cunningham? *sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footy_29 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 3 hours ago, Woz said: You mean a guy like Zach Cunningham? *sigh* The 2015 second round is a great example with McKinney, Kendriks and Perryman. With Preston Smith as a strong choice, but realistically gets squeezed out with the salary cap numbers. I'm sure there was some expectation that Preston Smith could supersede Kerrigan as the dominant team rusher and allow for some flexibility. All of those guys are probably starting here, with McKinney as the best. Rewind another couple of years to 2013 where the round was loaded with ILBs, but I try to forget about David Amerson. If it's not an ILB, it could be another defensive lineman or a corner. A big part of it, in my mind, is whether Spaight is a captain of the defense. I remember catching a glimpse of praises received by other players (this season) for Spaight's leadership. On first blush, I'm all for Zach Brown but it's got to be more than jaw-dropping speed for a LB. There's a reason Brown amassed the tackles that he did last year and settled for the 1-year contract that he did. If they're banking on Spaight being the Mike moving forward, finding a Ted linebacker will be easy enough. For that matter, if Zach Brown was a Mike LB (like Fletcher was) this would again be another discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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