BDL Discussion Thread 2022

[Blue]

3 minutes ago, bcb1213 said:

Would you take Clemson over Tennessee then? 

Would I? No. Do I think the committee would? Probably.

Different conversation though, isn't it? Clemson getting stomped by Notre Dame is a WAY worse loss than Georgia, y'know?

EDIT: Clemson's SoS is really, really dog**** compared to Oregon and Tennessee, too.

Edited November 6, 2022 by Blue

[bcb1213]

8 minutes ago, Blue said:

Would I? No. Do I think the committee would? Probably.

Different conversation though, isn't it? Clemson getting stomped by Notre Dame is a WAY worse loss than Georgia, y'know?

EDIT: Clemson's SoS is really, really dog**** compared to Oregon and Tennessee, too.

I mean you did say one loss conference winner. Big 12 may end up with one too 

[LAOJoe]

20 minutes ago, Blue said:

3-loss LSU wouldn't stay ahead of a 2-loss Bama and it's possible (but very unlikely) neither are in the top 10 at that point, too. Even then, you're banking on the committee giving a **** about a fairly arbitrary cut-off point of top 10 versus, what, top 12? They don't care about that.

Y'all seem to just be looking at the conference and a single common opponent when that's not the only thing that matters.

Oregon is going to play some very good teams, including at least one ranked team, in its last three games. Tennessee isn't.

Tennessee, Clemson, and Alabama are all going to drop in the polls after tonight. Oregon (and their two biggest conference opponents) is going to move up.

Oregon gets a conference title game, against a ranked opponent, to impress the voters at the end of the season. Tennessee isn't.

Ultimately I don't think it matters because somebody in this conversation will lose before then (probably Oregon), but there are a lot more factors here than you seem willing to acknowledge. A 1-loss Pac-12 champ is getting in over Tennessee. That is a stone-cold fact given what the current rankings are. You're just not going to see a 1-loss team that didn't win their conference get in over one that did unless they lost in the title game.

I'm using history. They don't like punishing teams that got their extra loss in the conference championship. LSU probably stays ahead of Bama.

 

And actually you are the one that doesn't seem to want to acknowledge other factors. I said they could, you said what I've been saying is impossible despite the history.

[Blue]

9 minutes ago, LAOJoe said:

I'm using history. They don't like punishing teams that got their extra loss in the conference championship. LSU probably stays ahead of Bama.

 

And actually you are the one that doesn't seem to want to acknowledge other factors. I said they could, you said what I've been saying is impossible despite the history.

But they DO punish them. They're not going to stay ahead of Bama. 2-loss Bama means Bama beats a top 10 Ole Miss next week. 3-loss LSU would have a significantly worse loss against a common opponent (Tennessee) and a loss to (at minimum) 3-loss FSU on their record. The committee would almost certainly write off the head-to-head win as a fluke given it was at LSU and LSU would have worse losses on their resume.

It IS impossible given the history. I'm sorry that's inconvenient for you.

[LAOJoe]

5 minutes ago, Blue said:

But they DO punish them. They're not going to stay ahead of Bama. 2-loss Bama means Bama beats a top 10 Ole Miss next week. 3-loss LSU would have a significantly worse loss against a common opponent (Tennessee) and a loss to (at minimum) 3-loss FSU on their record. The committee would almost certainly write off the head-to-head win as a fluke given it was at LSU and LSU would have worse losses on their resume.

It IS impossible given the history. I'm sorry that's inconvenient for you.

Not on CCG week. They would almost certainly set a spot above Bama as the low point. It happens.

[Blue]

4 minutes ago, LAOJoe said:

Not on CCG week. They would almost certainly set a spot above Bama as the low point. It happens.

What instance of this happening are you thinking of where a 3-loss team was ranked ahead of a 2-loss team because of a head-to-head result? Because I can't come up with one.

EDIT: Best I can find is 2019 with 3-loss Auburn and 2-loss Bama, but A) neither played in the conference title game, B) Auburn beat Alabama in the final game of the season, C) they were both just outside of the top 10 and it had no impact on playoff seeding.

Edited November 6, 2022 by Blue

[LAOJoe]

I am talking about teams with equal records heading into the conference championship but the team with the privilege of the extra game is already ahead in ranking with the H2H win. In those cases the team losing doesn't get punished much for losing that game. I'll give you some examples later. I can't now. And I'm not talking about seeding. I'm talking about how it would look for Tennessee's resume if they have 2 top 10 wins.

Edited November 6, 2022 by LAOJoe

[Blue]

4 minutes ago, LAOJoe said:

I am talking about teams with equal records heading into the conference championship but the team with the privilege of the extra game is already ahead in ranking with the H2H win. In those cases the team losing doesn't get punished much for losing that game. I'll give you some examples later. I can't now. And I'm not talking about seeding. I'm talking about how it would look for Tennessee's resume if they have 2 top 10 wins.

It is very unlikely LSU is a top-10 team with 3 losses. Just doesn't happen that often. If they do, they'll be right on the edge and I really don't think that matters much to the committee vs. 11 or 12, which is where Oregon's likely conference title game opponent will be.

[LAOJoe]

18 minutes ago, Blue said:

It is very unlikely LSU is a top-10 team with 3 losses. Just doesn't happen that often. If they do, they'll be right on the edge and I really don't think that matters much to the committee vs. 11 or 12, which is where Oregon's likely conference title game opponent will be.

If USC or UCLA goes undefeated, they'll be in the top 8 and there will be talk about them getting in with a win vs Oregon. If TCU loses one without winning the conference, it'll look really good for them.

Edited November 6, 2022 by LAOJoe

[Blue]

3 minutes ago, LAOJoe said:

If USC or UCLA goes undefeated, they'll be in the top 8 and there will be talk about them getting in with a win vs Oregon. If TCU loses one without winning the conference, it'll look really good for them.

USC and UCLA both have one loss, so I assume you mean undefeated the rest of the way. Agreed, I think both of them likely get in with a single loss over Tennessee as well.

No matter how you slice it, a one-loss Pac-12 champ is going to get in over Tennessee. There's just nothing Tennessee can really do to climb up the rankings without other teams ahead of them losing, while the Pac-12's top three teams can all make a big impression with wins over ranked opponents down the stretch.

Edited November 6, 2022 by Blue

[LAOJoe]

4 minutes ago, Blue said:

Agreed, I think both of them likely get in with a single loss over Tennessee as well.

No matter how you slice it, a one-loss Pac-12 champ is going to get in over Tennessee. There's just nothing Tennessee can really do to climb up the rankings without other teams ahead of them losing, while the Pac-12's top three teams can all make a big impression with wins over ranked opponents down the stretch.

It's not set in stone and I never said they'd get in over Tennessee. They'd be in the conversation. Still a lot of ball to play.

[Blue]

1 minute ago, LAOJoe said:

It's not set in stone and I never said they'd get in over Tennessee. They'd be in the conversation. Still a lot of ball to play.

They'd absolutely get in over Tennessee. I don't know why this is hard for you. Tennessee has nothing they can do to add to their resume. All three of the Pac-12's top teams can, and they get to play an extra game against a ranked team on top of that. Literally the only thing Tennessee has going for them is they lost by less to Georgia, but even then they lost more recently.

[MWil23]

Do we really believe Tennessee will be left out? They’re your fourth team if they win out. 

Georgia

OSU/UM

TCU

Tennessee

USC has not beaten anyone this year. Yes they have a dramatic close loss. They do play UCLA/Notre Dame yet. 

Oregon got absolutely housed and the CFP has held that against teams in the past.

To be honest, the CFP should even take the loser of the OSU/UM game as the fourth team when TCU loses, but they won’t.
 

The blowout win vs LSU now looks great. I don’t believe the committee leaves them out if TCU loses. 

[bcb1213]

47 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Do we really believe Tennessee will be left out? They’re your fourth team if they win out. 

Georgia

OSU/UM

TCU

Tennessee

USC has not beaten anyone this year. Yes they have a dramatic close loss. They do play UCLA/Notre Dame yet. 

Oregon got absolutely housed and the CFP has held that against teams in the past.

To be honest, the CFP should even take the loser of the OSU/UM game as the fourth team when TCU loses, but they won’t.
 

The blowout win vs LSU now looks great. I don’t believe the committee leaves them out if TCU loses. 

If usc wins out they are a lock 

They'd have to beat UCLA notre Dame and Oregon consecutively 

[SirA1]

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