What have we learned?

[Dcash4]

Alright, so now that we have entered the most boring 2 weeks in sports, I thought it would be a nice catch up point to chat a bit about the playoffs, what we see in the top teams, and how that changes/solidifies our thoughts on the Steelers moving forward. I'm laying out a template of 1 theme, 3 things I learned, and how that translates to my thoughts on the Steelers. Feel free to throw your own thoughts out there, or just tear up mine. 

Playoff Theme:

Teams are overwhelmingly.......average. Has anyone really been blown away by a teams top to bottom talent? That's not to say there isn't a lot of talent out there -- there is -- but I view individuals some by asking "where do they get taken in fantasy style NFL draft". There are a lot of players that wouldn't come up until the middle of the pack. But the point here is to be overwhelmingly average with some super stars, not a mixture of bad and some average with sprinkled in super stars. 

WIL 1: Get a QB, full stop

This isn't revolutionary, but I think it's abundantly clear that you don't just need A quarterback but you need THE quarterback. This playoff has been a clinic on QB mobility and how special talents change everything. Watching the Bills v/ Chiefs game was where you really saw the QB's carry the offensive load, but watching the difference between Burrow (good) and Tannehill (average) or Stafford (good) and Jimmy G (bad/average) was the eye opening parts. The Titans were a better team than the Bengals, but Tannehill is not nearly as good a QB and in the end that was the difference. The good QB made a play, the bad QB didn't. Same thing last night with the Rams v. 49ers. Stafford was able to make plays late in the game, Jimmy G couldn't do anything despite Shanahan being McVay kryptonite. The 49er offense scored 3 points in the 4th quarter of the playoffs (3 games) and a large part of that is because when it comes time to stand up in key situations, their QB sits down. 

You have the God (mahomes), the physical freak (allen), and the cool operator (burrow). All different types. All different traits. But it doesn't matter - you just need to find that guy. 

WIL 2: Offensive Line is kinda overrated

Now, please understand that doesn't mean you can get away with bad. But it does mean you can get away with just a competent group and even better if 1/2 of those guys is rock solid. But we saw it in every game this year where QB mobility was more of a factor in the passing game than the actually blocking. Orlando Brown struuuuuggled to protect Mahomes, but Mahomes is a master of moving out of the way and buying time. Same with with Allen the week before. Same with Brady. Burrow was sacked NINE TIMES and is playing in the super bowl. The Rams may have the best unit left this weekend and their interior can be very shaky. IMO, the best OL's across the league were at home this weekend. Some were not even invited to the playoffs at all. The Bills and the Bengals have back half of the league units, yet are super successful offenses. 

This is one of the areas I really bought into the theme. You need overwhelming average players and a good plan moreso than a group of 5 elites. 

WIL 3: Who needs top CBs?

Top market CB's are not necessary. The goal of paying someone $20M+ at CB is that they eliminate the biggest threats. Well, great. What about the second threat? The passing game has grown too much and will continue to evolve in the direction where 1 threat isn't all a team has. Some are 3-4 deep. Offensive coordinators can came plan to get their guys touches. Let's play a game: Name any corner back from the 49ers. None? Okay bigger source. Name 3 corners since the divisional round not named Mike Hilton (who was a Steeler) and Jalen Ramsey. Jalen is the best corner in the league, Mike Evans went 8 for 119 on him with a big TD over him. The 49ers, who do not have a good passing game, had Aiyuk and Samuels go 8 for 141 because they avoided him and schemed touches for them in space. Who are you guarding against the Rams? Kupp? Cool, OBJ will go off. Got enough to cover both? Van Jeffersons and Higbee can have days. The Chiefs did a decent job on Chase, but Higgins went for 103. Chiefs did a great job against Diggs.....Gabriel Davis went for 201. 

Darrius Slay, JC Jackson -- saw their teams give up big points in the playoffs (and Jackson played terribly too). The story is that it's far more about the collection of people, rather than a single individual at corner. Passing games have evolved too much for one guy - as good as they may be - to slow things down. I'll attack your second corner. I'll attack your linebackers. I'll attack your deep safeties. 

Translating my lessons to the Steelers off-season:

Number 1 is pretty simple....If you have a QB you like, go get him. There is no single thing you can do that's more important. If there is a toolsy guy that you think has franchise ability, go for it. But part of this lesson is also that I am not picking a QB who is simply okay to check the box. I am not picking someone who can thrive in a system. They need to be able to do some things on their own or have the potential to be a big game player.  If that player doesn't exist this year, let Mason, or better yet, toolsy Haskins have their hand. I am not spending ANY FA cash on mediocre to check a box. Hell no to Mariota or Trubisky, don't spend the cash. They don't beat Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, or anyone else in that level without a perfect team and a perfect plan. 

Lesson two just leads me to believe that we are not as far away on the offensive line as might be through. That isn't to say I am buying heavily into anyone person on the current line, but we don't need to sign 3 elite players and draft 2 top 10 picks to have a passable line that wins games, and play off games, in the NFL. I'm not selling anyone on Green or Moore, just the idea that the O-Line turn around is far more attainable that maybe previously thought. Spend FA money on starters and make sure you draft another guy in the top 2 rounds and see what happens. 

And the last lesson: I was BIG on getting a Carlton Davis/JC Jackson if available. I am kinda out on that now. I would rather sign 2-3 guys for the same money who are mid-level, but competent. Ahkell Witherspoon and someone else in that level + Sutton and a draft pick. I know we suck at drafting CB's but IMO, it's far more impactful to draft the top level guy than it would be to spend $20M to get him. The Qb's just don't care if you have a top guy. They will attack everyone else. The plans, the receivers, it's all too good now. The cost isn't worth it, to me. And that would be reflected in my off-season moves by watching there be 1 top level CB in this playoffs.  

Edited January 31, 2022 by Dcash4

[jebrick]

Defense still wins championships. - Both teams in the SB have good defenses.  There were no bad defensive teams in the playoff.

Good TEAMS  go far in playoffs.

[AFF]

@Dcash4

I agree on both aspects of your QB point...you need an elite(or borderline) QB.

I stated a month or 2 ago paying for a bridge guy doesn’t make sense and just wastes cap room...it’s why I was a proponent of going after Rodgers.

Signing 5 avg to solid players compared to say 2-3 very good players makes sense in a way but....

The weakness in you’re having “mostly average players” argument is coaching...the Steelers don’t have the coaching to compensate for this.

 

[43M]

58 minutes ago, AFF said:

 

I stated a month or 2 ago paying for a bridge guy doesn’t make sense and just wastes cap room...it’s why I was a proponent of going after Rodgers.

Not trying to get into another big debate over this, but Im not sure how a $10- 15m bridge guy whilst rebuilding makes no sense, but a team with tons of holes spending 2 first round picks on a 38/39 year old QB with a $30m cap hit somehow DOES make sense?

I dont think anyone would refute that you need a franchise QB to win BIG in this league.

What is VERY refutable, however, is that making a move like that would instantly make the Steelers a SB contender....which is the only reason to trade that much...especially for an aging QB.  

[Dcash4]

5 hours ago, jebrick said:

Both teams in the SB have good defenses

I really hesitate to consider the Bengals a good defense. The only area that they ranked in the top 10 was rush defense, and a part of that is because their pass defense was bottom 10. They were middle of the pack in turnovers. Middle to top in sacks. 

I wouldn’t call them a bad defense, but they fit right in with my theme. 

3 hours ago, AFF said:

The weakness in you’re having “mostly average players” argument is coaching...the Steelers don’t have the coaching to compensate for this.

Don’t disagree. Coaching power would have been my 4th point about coaching, though more focuses on the “what’s” rather than the “how’s”. Like that there are 4 defensive head coaches in the playoffs this year and they went combined 1-4. 

I like Tomlin as a CEO coach, but where I think he has really failed is in hiring the directors under him to help run his business. Not sure that’s changing anytime soon. 

[AFF]

3 hours ago, 43M said:

Not trying to get into another big debate over this, but Im not sure how a $10- 15m bridge guy whilst rebuilding makes no sense, but a team with tons of holes spending 2 first round picks on a 38/39 year old QB with a $30m cap hit somehow DOES make sense?

I dont think anyone would refute that you need a franchise QB to win BIG in this league.

What is VERY refutable, however, is that making a move like that would instantly make the Steelers a SB contender....which is the only reason to trade that much...especially for an aging QB.  

Let me but this a better way...

The league has so much parity in that I believe that an average team with a great QB can make the dance.

I also put into a phase of where Steelers best players are at...Heyward is 33, Watt 27, Minkah 26...at best an incoming rookie QB can make a run in his 2nd year...probsbly not til his 3rd. Now our best players are probably already gone or tail end of their prime.

If our best guys were younger, I’d be more inclined to go with a rookie.

Not saying it’s a great idea...it’s just my personal thoughts on it.

[Dcash4]

9 hours ago, AFF said:

The league has so much parity in that I believe that an average team with a great QB can make the dance.

Not saying it’s a great idea...it’s just my personal thoughts on it.

I think this is correct (hence, my theme). With a stud QB, you are never too far away and the adjustments that you need to make are realistically available. An elite QB is going to lift your overall talent higher than what more elite players + a mediocre QB would. 

You can have a bad offensive line and get to the super bowl, look at the Bengals (or even just our past). 

You don't need stud after stud DB's to win multiple playoff games, look at the 49ers. 

I am not saying that Aaron Rodgers on this team as currently constructed is in that conversation, but the aiming point of being more average is achievable. 

I really don't think A-Aron is a possibility, I would need some crazy assurances in committed years and I would only give up 1 first round pick. I wouldn't go all in on Aaron for 1 year and him retiring, but for 2, maybe three years in a down QB draft I would consider it. 

[warfelg]

Biggest thing I learned through the year is you got to have fast starts. The game is too slanted to help teams in the lead to have these slow starts to the games we have. 
 

Quick but not fast guys work, but you got to have a top buster on your team. 
 

Motion, PAP, RPO, and positional flexibility are needed. 
 

You need a shut down take away the best player corner. 
 

The youth vs vet argument is overblown. 
 

Need one stud on a rookie contract. 

[cjfollett]

I honestly did not learn anything from this season that we did not already know. So I'll go with three confirmations.

C1: Every NFL team has elite athletes. The saying "any given Sunday" is absolutely true. That said, some teams find ways to rise above the rest while some teams find ways to be perennial losers. The Steelers are a good organization overall, and we're lucky to be fans of this team (as opposed to the Lions, Jags, Jets, etc.).

C2: The Steelers are a middling team that should not have brought back Ben for one more ride. It was clear that he was not comfortable or even able to execute the offense that Canada wanted to run. It made for a very ineffective offense, which compounded the problems for the oft-injured defense. That said, it likely was not going to be better with any other QB, but why waste the cap space?

C3: It is well past time for the Steelers to focus on the O line. It has been 10 years since the Steelers drafted O line in the 1st round, and I think they have spent too much time over the years on defensive players for an offensive-driven league. The expectation for 3rd and 4th round rookies to start on the O line was entirely too high.