GDT - Week 10 - Can we rejoin the club?

[Hunter2_1]

It's Mile High Time. 

In 2014, they knocked us out of the playoffs

Brady didn't have his best day, throwing for 277 yards but missing some major opportunities in the first half for big strikes. The defense also had a rough day, albeit expectedly, letting Denver hold the ball for over 35 minutes.

 

In 2015 we played the Heist-led Broncos, in snow, for a loss. This happened;

5. Ronnie Hillman runs 19 yards for a touchdown (-2.58 EPA). The Broncos scored right before the half, taking advantage of the Dont'a Hightower-less run defense.

4. Brock Osweiler completes an 11-yard pass to C.J. Anderson, but Tavon Wilson is penalized 15 yards for a face mask on 3rd and 8 (-2.82 EPA). This was a killer, but correct, call against the Patriots that pushed the Broncos from a tough situation to a first down situation on the Patriots side of the field in the 3rd down.

3. Brock Osweiler completes a 39-yard pass to Emmanuel Sanders (-3.46 EPA). This set up the Broncos touchdown to take the lead late in the game, prior to Brady's overtime-forcing drive. Osweiler threw an absolutely gorgeous throw to Sanders over Malcolm Butler.

2. C.J. Anderson runs 48 yards for a touchdown on 3rd and 1 in overtime (-4.25 EPA). This ended the game and the Patriots certainly could have a gripe for the missed holding call that pulled Devin McCourty out of the hole.

 

In 2016, they knocked us out AGAIN in the AFC CG

The offensive line was atrocious

Brady was pressured on over 62% of his dropbacks, which is absolutely unacceptable. CBS tracked 61 dropbacks, 4 sacks, 18 hurries, and 16 hits over the course of the game. Von Miller had a career defining day against us, as Stork tipped him off on the snap. Both he and Ware lit our OL up.

The Patriots didn't have the weapons to win

Rob Gronkowski came to play. So did Julian Edelman, in the second half. James Whitewanted to play, but was only involved in deep shots for some reason. Brandon LaFell and Keshawn Martin were only decoys. Danny Amendola couldn't stay healthy

Stephen Gostkowski missed an XP and we were trying to play catch-up all afternoon. And that's all she wrote.

 

 

We got one back last season, but I for one am still not over the above losses. I want MORE revenge!

Denver comes into the game after an embarrassing defeat, where they were out-coached and out-executed. Hopefully we can pour some more of that on. 

Osweiler will start, and in 2015, he completed 54.8% of his passes for 270 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception that day.

Stephon Gilmore expects to play on Sunday and will likely be tasked with shadowing Demaryius Thomas around the field, while Malcolm Butler covers Emmanuel Sanders. Patrick Chung should cover the Broncos tight end, whether it’s A.J. Derby or Virgil Green, and that leaves Johnson Bademosi or Jonathan Jones to cover Bennie Fowler in the slot, or the second tight end on the field.

And that second tight end position will be important to monitor as Patricia notes that the Broncos enjoy flexing the tight ends around the formation until they get a favorable match-up.

Prediction: 20-17 New England.

[dhunt2402]

I think this is a low scoring game. 17-6 Pats

[ChazStandard]

One encouraging sign is that, even with Zach Ertz hurt, the Broncos D still gave up key plays Philadelphia's TEs. if Celek and Burton can get open, so can Gronk.

Philly have a very good OL, of course, including Lane Johnson who completely owned Von Miller, they also got good push in the run game. 

The OL did an...alright..job of protecting Brady against LA. In that, they weren't that great, but Brady was good enough to make DEs miss and complete passes anyway. That will probably be the deciding factor in this game too.

I'm hoping it's a 2011-esque blow-out. But it probably won't be.

[Deadpulse]

For whatever reason I have confidence for this game. I am thinking something like 31-17 Patriots

[Hunter2_1]

According to multiple reports, DT Malcom Brown, OT Marcus Cannon, WR Chris Hogan, LB Shea McClellin, and OT Nate Solder were all absent in Tuesday's practice. 

[IheartMyV8]

Reports were Hogs was going to miss 3 weeks or so last I read.  Who's left at receiver?  Dola, Cooks, Slater, and receiver-formerly-of-the-colts?

 

[everlong]

Mile High Stadium...you'll never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. We must be cautious.

[Soko]

No TJ Ward. 

I feel like this is one of those times where the Pats make a bad QB look not so bad, but still expecting a W here. Their defense has taken a half step backwards and the offense is probably as bad as it’s been. 

[Hunter2_1]

6 hours ago, everlong said:

Mile High Stadium...you'll never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. We must be cautious.

I hate their blinding sun, I hate their shooty fans, I hate Manning's horse face, I hate Derek Wolfe, I hate that we had seasons ended there. This place is my Allia. We are Alaric coming to sack Mile High.

[Hunter2_1]

This is a take from Broncofan, who I respect, on how their season has gone so far;

 

 

"1.  LAC - at home, and we're only a blocked FG from OT.  LAC didn't have Perryman at ILB, and lost their 1st and 2nd round picks for the game, who were supposed to upgrade the WR and OL corps significantly.

2.  DAL - OK, full marks there.  Nothing but good things.

3.  OAK - we can now see that OAK is a very, very flawed team - awful D, and their OL has leaks - and it's what got Carr killed.  Carr out, easy pickings..and yet we saw that our O wasn't that good even then.   Good enough to win - but we've seen O's do far more vs. that D. 

And then let's look at our L's:

1.  BUF - they just outplayed us on both sides of the line.   Fully earned.   Crazy part - we limited their major weapon, Shady McCoy, in the run game but he and Charles Clay killed us at key moments.  

2.  NYG - at home, we got schooled in every way.  Our run D got smashed in the mouth, and Evan Engram ran wild vs. our pass D.

3.  LAC - rematch, and it wasn't close.   Our D came up to play, but man our O and ST were just awful.  

4.  KC - butt.kicking.  Our D was the only reason we even had a chance, although yet again TE killed us.

5.  PHI - double.butt.kicking.  This time our D let up, and didn't show up...but they have been worn out.   

So, we've really earned full marks for 1 out of our 3 W's.   And been far out-matched by 5 teams, one at home where we had a bye.   

Yes, a QB helps us a lot, we'd be silly to think otherwise - but we're a team that relies on home-field advantage and an elite D to win games.    We're a good QB from being a .500 team.    If we really want to contend, we need to be an overall better team across the board.    Keep drafting overall BPA for the next 2+ years, forget about position, and get smart in FA like you used to.  Figure out QB for sure, but let's stop the illusion we're just 1 guy away.  We're not.

I really wish it was otherwise, I really do."

[ChazStandard]

That summary has a quite a lot of references to TEs - Clay, Kelce, Engram all "killed" the Broncos. That's good.

[Hunter2_1]

51 minutes ago, ChazStandard said:

That summary has a quite a lot of references to TEs - Clay, Kelce, Engram all "killed" the Broncos. That's good.

Yeah, noticed that. Hopefully Gronk can go beserk. 

[Hunter2_1]

Last season, we neutralised Von Miller.

He ended on 5 tackles, and nothing else. We threw infrequently but quickly, and ran the ball.

 Dion Lewis racked up 95 yards on 18 carries (5.28 YPC), while LeGarrette Blount and James White added another 20 carries, as we focused on controlling the clock and maintaining lead. If the Patriots can run the ball, then perhaps they’ll be able to take the edge off the Broncos pass rush. The entire Patriots OL did a good job against the Broncos that day, giving up just 2 sacks, 1 hit, and 8 hurries. But Brady only had 188 yards with no other stats - that's how little we focused on passing, and we especially didn't care much for developing routes. 

In some ways, I hope that changes. Wentz has just put 4 TDs on them, and I want to see Brady go off on them.

 

[iothar]

1 hour ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Last season, we neutralised Von Miller.

He ended on 5 tackles, and nothing else. We threw infrequently but quickly, and ran the ball.

 Dion Lewis racked up 95 yards on 18 carries (5.28 YPC), while LeGarrette Blount and James White added another 20 carries, as we focused on controlling the clock and maintaining lead. If the Patriots can run the ball, then perhaps they’ll be able to take the edge off the Broncos pass rush. The entire Patriots OL did a good job against the Broncos that day, giving up just 2 sacks, 1 hit, and 8 hurries. But Brady only had 188 yards with no other stats - that's how little we focused on passing, and we especially didn't care much for developing routes. 

In some ways, I hope that changes. Wentz has just put 4 TDs on them, and I want to see Brady go off on them.

 

Possibly no Cannon this week. I think a healthy cannon was about as good a RT in the league. Stopped Watt and many others, a gimpy Cannon though is a liability and I think BB will be giving him the full rest +1 in order to nip this injury.

[iothar]

1 hour ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Yeah, noticed that. Hopefully Gronk can go beserk. 

I think that's a culmination of Denver picking their poison between running defense and TE defense. Devoting a safety or a LB to aid in TE defense will affect the running game. Gotta think Denver will choose to help with Gronk and I predict a huge game from Gillislee. I think power running and screens are a staple of this game. Patriots have been in Denver for I want to say a week today to get acclimated to the altitude which will pay bigger dividends in Mexico. Couldn't really have picked a better way. Denver is like 5300 feet up and Mexico City is like 7300.