For Those Select Few......

[soulman]

Secondary Rebuilt, Weapons Lacking: Assessing the 2022 NFL Draft in the Context of 2023

Jeff Hughes | May 1st, 2022   https://www.dabearsblog.com/2022/31820

The scout who I have relied upon this week to fill me in on all things draft was giving his assessment of Ryan Poles’ work over rounds two and three.

This is not someone who has any reason to inflate the work of the GM of the Chicago Bears. He has zero stake in the game. This was a professional talent evaluator evaluating the talent selected; examining the players acquired in a draft he has routinely described to me as “the weakest in the last 15 years.”

The Complaints.

Listen, the complaints are understandable. A logical case could have been made for the Bears to spend every single pick Friday night on the offensive side of the ball. One could argue that taking shots on the potential of George Pickens or Alec Pierce or Skyy Moore is more exciting (undoubtedly) and more in-tune with the modern game. But if that’s the case, why were the Baltimore Ravens universally celebrated for their work in the first round, securing a box safety and center while trading away their best outside receiver?

Pickens will be asked to do very little in Pittsburgh (and will do little with those quarterbacks). Pierce and Moore will be no more than third options on their rosters in Indianapolis and Kansas City. The Bears would have been asking all three to start on day one and seriously contribute as rookies. Does anyone actually believe these three players are capable of that? If they were, would several receiver-needy clubs have gleefully passed on them at the backend of the first round?

But most complaints coming from fans are actually based on a fallacy. Bears fans seem to believe the organization needs to pile talent around Justin Fields to accurately assess his ability as a quarterback and make determinations on his future. That is definitively not the case. Ryan Poles and Justin Fields have been side-by-side through this process, even to the point of watching tape together on receiver prospects in the draft.

---

Adam Jahns

 

@adamjahns

 

Not at all. Poles literally said that he watched film with Fields to prepare him for the draft and to discuss potential WRs.

Quote Tweet

Buffy

 

@BufTrading

· Apr 30

Replying to @adamjahns

Adam do Do you think this draft thus far shows the new management lack of confidence in Fields as the guy moving forward

8:58 AM · Apr 30, 2022·Twitter for iPhone

 

The team will not hold Fields accountable for the lack of playmaking ability around him. Poles got this job because he looked George McCaskey in the eyes and told him the roster was dreck. No one has a more sober view of the depth chart and the communication between the new leadership and the young quarterback has been impeccable.

Also, this belief that a quarterback requires a stacked roster around him in year two to improve is utter nonsense. Josh Allen’s second-year receivers were John Brown and Cole Beasley. Deshaun Watson’s second receiver in his second year totaled 32 catches. Russell Wilson’s top pass catcher in his sophomore season had 64 catches. Fields is going into this season with a new coaching staff building an offense specifically for him, a talented run game and a 1,000-yard receiver he loves. If he can’t improve in that context, fair questions should be asked.

Edited May 1, 2022 by soulman

[Heinz D.]

Don't have the time now...but I'll be back. 

[soulman]

Jeff Hughes | May 1st, 2022 https://www.dabearsblog.com/2022/31820

The Approach.

If Poles’ board had potential starters at wideout and along the offensive line at the top of the second round, those would have been his selections. But it didn’t. And with secondary being the second-worst position group on the roster, why wouldn’t he hesitate to fortify that unit? As Poles himself stated, “There were two good starting-level defensive players, and I would have made a huge mistake for this organization to say, ‘Let’s leave them there’.”

The Bears believe the best way to “develop” Fields is to take pressure off of him, not artificially inflate the wide receiver room with day two maybes. Selecting Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker (the latter described to me by the aforementioned scout as a “top 35 talent” in this draft) is about establishing a structure for the difficult season to come. The Bears want to run the ball effectively and play solid defense. If they do those two things, they will not have to ask their quarterback – now in his third offensive system in three years – to drop back and fling it 40 times a week.

If the Bears didn’t address their secondary, especially after trading Khalil Mack, the team was looking at fielding an unprofessional group at the backend of their defense. If they did that, they would be chasing every game. Is there a worse possible scenario for a young QB?

The selection of Velus Jones Jr. in the third round also plays to this approach. “Deebo light” might seem like a grandiose designation, with Samuel coming off a brilliant 2021 campaign, but it’s easy to forget that the Niners receiver was more of a prolific gadget player in his first two seasons. Jones’ speed will give the Bears a dynamic they have sorely lacked in the Pace years, a player capable of taking a quick slant or bubble screen to the house at any moment. And it’s also difficult to understand how Bears fans – OF ALL FANS – don’t understand the potential viability of drafting college football’s most electric return man.

Jones is a chess piece for an organization whose offensive game strategy hasn’t ascended beyond Connect Four in the modern era.

[soulman]

Jeff Hughes | May 1st, 2022 https://www.dabearsblog.com/2022/31820

The Fields Thing, or Twitter is Bad. 

Late Saturday afternoon I met a Bears fan in my Queens, NY local, The Copper Kettle. We talked about the draft for a good half hour.  (The draft was inconceivably still going.) The conversation was calm. It was balanced. His take was simple: “hopefully these guys are good”. He didn’t bemoan the second and third-tier receivers the team passed on. He didn’t scream about process.

He’s also not on Twitter.

There are only 38 million daily users of Twitter in the United States. There are roughly 260 million adults in the United States. So that means less than 15% of American adults are actually on the platform. Even if we give that number a slight bump for sports, one of Twitter’s primary patron bases, it’s a fact that Twitter represents a tiny percentage of any sports organization’s fans, the very definition of a vocal minority.

And Bears fans are a particularly emotional bunch on the platform. One needs only to search “Justin Fields” to see hundreds upon hundreds of fans defending Fields against any and all criticism from other fans. They treat Fields like he’s their child and can do no wrong. They 100% believe in the young quarterback and want the Bears to surround him with stars so his production will immediately increase, and they can win these mindless Twitter debates. (These are the types who like to post videos of their reactions to the Bears taking Fields in 2021 – something I find exceedingly odd when the poster is north of, say, 14 years old.)

The truth is, while the Bears are also fully committed to Fields, Poles needs to build a roster that not only makes the QB’s job easier, but a roster that is ready to win should the team have to find a new QB in a few years.

[soulman]

 

Jeff Hughes | May 1st, 2022 https://www.dabearsblog.com/2022/31820

2023.

Poles was not hired to develop Justin Fields. It will be a focus of his work, but it is not the preoccupation. Poles was hired to build a roster capable of contending for titles year-in and year-out and he fully understands that 2022 is not a contending season. Every decision he has made to this point shows where his focus lies: 2023. That’s where he’ll find a full slate of draft picks. That’s where he’ll find an exorbitant amount of cap space. And that’s where he’ll have answers to some of the questions currently floating around Lake Forest, i.e., where is Teven Jenkins going to play along this offensive line and is Trevis Gipson capable of being a consistent pass rusher in the league?

If this draft was successful, the Bears will approach next off-season as deliberately as any in recent memory. If Fields takes the steps the organization expects him to take in 2022, everything will be centered around improving their passing game in 2023. (Think Buffalo’s acquisition of Stefon Diggs in 2020, or the Dolphins grabbing Tyreek Hill this off-season.) With teams now willingly dumping their frontline receivers to avoid big contracts, a veteran move at the position could be possible. If there’s nothing on the trade market, the Bears will use their inevitable top-15 pick at the position. (Next year, my college football watching will plentiful and singularly focused on these fellas at the wide receiver position.)

[soulman]

Jeff Hughes | May 1st, 2022 https://www.dabearsblog.com/2022/31820

Now, We Wait.

Drafts are scratch-off lottery tickets with slightly better success rates. And that rate dramatically decreases as the rounds progress. The likelihood that Poles’ Friday night selections will all be impactful professionals is not high. But there is no question that all three will be given the opportunity to make an impact. Gordon and Brisker are penciled in as day one starters and Jones will both be returning kicks and supplying speed to the offense. (Don’t be surprised to see Jones perform a Deebo-like function in the running game as well.) And with any luck, one or two of the myriad of day three selections will also find their way into prominent roles on the 2022 club, including punter Trenton Gill.

Poles made his statement this weekend. He will not have his hand forced by those desperate to see Fields take “the leap” immediately. He’s going to be patient, both with his quarterback and his roster-building process. And he’s willing to suffer the slings and arrows of 2022 for success in 2023 and beyond.

[Sugashane]

While I am not comfortable with the offensive cast around Fields I said I'd give Poles time to revamp a weak roster. He did make some moves to get more swings and addressed several prospects on the OL who can hopefully be developed. His moves seem to have a logical base to them and he clearly is looking long-term. He seems to value traits and athleticism and wants the coaching staff to develop the talents given to them, which is something I stand behind wholeheartedly too. He took 4 swings at OL too, so he is (seemingly) clear to make that somewhat of a priority without throwing premium picks at the spot. So he seems to know that even with a 50% success rate at OL that he is going to need multiple swings to have the best result. To me that is a plus too.

As long as Fields isn't getting hung out to dry like last year I'll be content enough with even a 3-14 record. Hopefully Getsy is the real deal too. A LOT is hinging on that.

[AZBearsFan]

9 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Hopefully Getsy is the real deal too. A LOT is hinging on that.

They clearly think he is a competent and capable play caller at minimum. I can’t imagine what they think of how the prior regime used what was here, but man, they can’t have much good to say. There is a clear reliance on building a scheme around the talent they do have, specifically Fields (the right way to do it IMO). Hopefully they have put the right guys in place to do it. 

[Heinz D.]

16 hours ago, Sugashane said:

As long as Fields isn't getting hung out to dry like last year I'll be content enough with even a 3-14 record. Hopefully Getsy is the real deal too. A LOT is hinging on that.

Curious--why do you think the Bears could potentially have a much worse record than last year? Is it because you think Detroit is so much improved? 

[Epyon]

Something that also occurred to me is maybe they don't hate fields as much as maybe they are actually much higher on Mooney, Jenkins, and Borom (the first OT we took this year also had a really high zone blocking grade, so he might even be in the mix more than one would think) 

 

But receiver wise, is your think Mooney is an 1100 yards/year wr, and think Pringle was underutilized, how much does Jones really need to actually do? 400 yards in kind of a gadget role as a #4-5 option would be aiming pretty high.. And that's hardly impossible levels of production and frankly good enough to hold out a year for another draft (there were a few wrs I actually liked early that ended up staying in school), and a really really loaded fa class. I think Metcalf is an extremely realistic possibility next year, given he's got Chicago connections, and frankly Seattle looks like a team on the decline without a QB. 

Edited May 2, 2022 by Epyon

[Sugashane]

15 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Curious--why do you think the Bears could potentially have a much worse record than last year? Is it because you think Detroit is so much improved? 

I dont think they will. ATM I would probably put them as the same record as 2021 but good coaching could make up for the talent deficiency a bit. 

I was just saying we could have that bad of a record and I would be fone with it if Fields isn't getting abused like last year.

[AZBearsFan]

16 hours ago, Epyon said:

Something that also occurred to me is maybe they don't hate fields as much as maybe they are actually much higher on Mooney, Jenkins, and Borom (the first OT we took this year also had a really high zone blocking grade, so he might even be in the mix more than one would think) 

 

But receiver wise, is your think Mooney is an 1100 yards/year wr, and think Pringle was underutilized, how much does Jones really need to actually do? 400 yards in kind of a gadget role as a #4-5 option would be aiming pretty high.. And that's hardly impossible levels of production and frankly good enough to hold out a year for another draft (there were a few wrs I actually liked early that ended up staying in school), and a really really loaded fa class. I think Metcalf is an extremely realistic possibility next year, given he's got Chicago connections, and frankly Seattle looks like a team on the decline without a QB. 

The other side of that is, if SEA is rolling with a 1st round QB next year they’re going to be in prime position to pay DK $25M/year next year to help out their own young QB, and if they don’t want to do that they would almost certainly tag/trade him.  

[soulman]

On 5/1/2022 at 11:32 PM, Sugashane said:

He took 4 swings at OL too, so he is (seemingly) clear to make that somewhat of a priority without throwing premium picks at the spot. So he seems to know that even with a 50% success rate at OL that he is going to need multiple swings to have the best result. To me that is a plus too.

This is precisely what I liked most about his approach.  Most realize that starting caliber OL can be found even in the mid or later rounds.  For Bears fans it should be a mantra given the sheer number to very good OL we've had who were not 1st round picks and a few like Leno were actually very late round picks or UDFA.  If a top pick like Jenkins fails you've spent a whole lot of draft value on one player you no longer have.  Same with Daniels who was also a higher 2nd round pick gone after his initial deal was up.

What we're seeing from Poles is what we never saw from Pace.  Poles will spend picks every year on OL looking for upgrades or in some cases just added depth.  All Pros can be manufactured via good coaching and playing in a system that matches their skills too. For instance GB LT David Bahktiari was a 4th round pick and he's started every game from his rookie season forward.  So in my mind guys like Braxton Jones and Larry Borom can also became top shelf talent as well if willing to do the work.

The draft is over now and there won't be much worthwhile to discuss that hasn't already been beaten to death 'til camp starts so I will again say my good byes my brother.  It seems that keeping the peace may be thought of as easier to do when I'm not around. 😇

😁  Later brother.

Edited May 4, 2022 by soulman

[Sugashane]

5 minutes ago, soulman said:

 It seems that keeping the peace may be though of as easier to do when I'm not around. 😇

😁  Later brother.

Peace is for tossers and sheep shaggers! Long live online confrontations!!! Lol

See you next time bud. 

[soulman]

4 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Peace is for tossers and sheep shaggers! Long live online confrontations!!! Lol

See you next time bud. 

Live long and prosper.  ✌️