The 2023 Draft Thread - We're picking #7

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

Maybe Jimmy looks solid and stays healthy and we can trade him after this season if we draft a QB. Doesn’t matter what we get for him, even a 5th, just as long as we get rid of his cap hit. 

That’s one of the most overlooked aspects of Jimmy’s deal. We don’t have to eat any dead cap if we trade him. 

[Devilshark69]

To me it’s very simple, and no need for overthinking this. All 4 this year have “questions” so to speak. Then leave them to others. Wait for next years draft. Do what ya gotta do next year to secure “the guy”. We’re not gonna keep pace with Herbert and mahomie with a “maybe”. Go with someone like DTR later in the draft to develope and be the back up for this year. 

[NYRaider]

2 minutes ago, Rolni said:

While this is true, we might not be able to trade up for a QB, if they will be so good prospects.

You could find yourself on the floor between two chairs easily if you know what I mean...

However if they don't see the available guys at 3 or 7 as sure fr.QBs then they should pass and don't force it...

That’s a good point if two QB needy teams are at the top of the draft the chances that they trade away their chance to select Caleb or Maye is pretty slim. 
 

I’d assume that we can move to #3 if we want too. But assuming we’d be moving up for Richardson it’s just risky. He’s going to need time to develop and we’d have to trade basically all of our premium picks. Which I’d be kinda meh about considering we didn’t really address the defense in free agency. 

But Ted Nguyen made a great point on their podcast the other day. He said it’s a QB driven league with if you think he can be a star it’s worth taking the risk.

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, Devilshark69 said:

To me it’s very simple, and no need for overthinking this. All 4 this year have “questions” so to speak. Then leave them to others. Wait for next years draft. Do what ya gotta do next year to secure “the guy”. We’re not gonna keep pace with Herbert and mahomie with a “maybe”. Go with someone like DTR later in the draft to develope and be the back up for this year. 

Agreed. To a certain extent, all 4 will be outliers if they succeed in the NFL. Stroud will be the first OSU QB to become a good pro, Bryce will be the smallest first round QB to succeed, Richardson will be one the least experienced college starter to succeed, and Levis will be the first older guy with so so tape and limited college production to succeed that I can remember. 

[NYRaider]

Do you guys think Arizona would be more inclined to trade #3 to us rather than Seattle so they avoid giving a division rival their QBOTF?

[Rolni]

I think with Jimmy G on board we can take Anthony Richardson and basically redshirt him if needed.

If the staff thinks they can develope AR, then we should pull the trigger if he is there at 3 and jump the Colts. This Arizona-Seattle divisional trade idea is good and valid IMO  @NYRaider!

He can sit, learn and develope, maybe get a taste in the last game or two, like how the Chiefs did with Smith and Mahomes.

I'm not a QB expert of course, but I can see AR being elite IF the coaching staff can fix his issues, which are fixable according to analysts, whom I trust. JMD is reportedly an O genius and a QB whisperer...let him earn his money and live or die by his rookie QB of choice.

 

Most years the fans tell that the next years QB draft is better...it's hard to really measure it IMO.

Will Lewis looked better after 2021, then after 2022 right? Then there are guys like Burrow, who flashes in his last year, so there might be guys in next year's class, who looks like the real deal now, but could struggle next season or there might be a guy, who is not known right now...hard to play this next year card IMO...

When there is a Joe Burrow, a Trevor Lawrence coming out, it is almost impossible to move up for that guy IMO...

[NYRaider]

7 minutes ago, Rolni said:

I think with Jimmy G on board we can take Anthony Richardson and basically redshirt him if needed.

If the staff thinks they can develope AR, then we should pull the trigger if he is there at 3 and jump the Colts. This Arizona-Seattle divisional trade idea is good and valid IMO  @NYRaider!

I don’t think they paid Jimmy what they did for him to be a backup this year. If we take him Jimmy will be the starter and I’m sure they’ll get Richardson involved with some special packages. 

I keep seeing the Seahawks as a potential trade partner for #3. But man I personally just don’t see it. Like can you imagine if we traded the chiefs or chargers the pick that eventually became Herbert or Mahomes? 

[NYRaider]

25 minutes ago, Rolni said:

Most years the fans tell that the next years QB draft is better...it's hard to really measure it IMO.

Will Lewis looked better after 2021, then after 2022 right? Then there are guys like Burrow, who flashes in his last year, so there might be guys in next year's class, who looks like the real deal now, but could struggle next season or there might be a guy, who is not known right now...hard to play this next year card IMO...

When there is a Joe Burrow, a Trevor Lawrence coming out, it is almost impossible to move up for that guy IMO...

I agree that people have a habit of over valuing the next class. I think it’s primarily because they’ve over analyzed the current group so the “upside” of the next guys is more exciting. 
 

And yeah guys can get hurt, fall off, anything can happen. But I will say that I’m pretty damn confident Maye / Williams will both be considered elite prospects at this time next year. The odds of being able to trade up for one though are pretty slim and even if you can the price is probably going to be historically high. 

Edited April 3, 2023 by NYRaider

[jimkelly02]

11 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

Having Jimmy signed means nothing when dude is always hurt. Also his 2024 cap number is 24 million it’s not like they would have a 40 million dollar back up QB while Richardson is taking over. 

Front office was smart when putting the Jimmy deal together. They could essentially cut him after this season if they wanted to. Yes they would take a cap hit but they also gain cap space as well. They gave themselves a QB who they think can win with this season but didn’t let that stop them for being aggressive for a QB if they liked them. 

I don’t think the Jimmy G deal was smart at all.  As you said he’s always hurt and is simply a bridge QB.  Yet if we want to move on from him next year we eat 19m in dead cap.  That’s a very large cap hit for a bridge QB.

Comparably, Baker Mayfield got 1yr, 4M plus incentives up to 4.5M.  

I see Jimmy G’s deal as a liability, not an asset for this team.  If we move on from Him next offseason we paid him 35m for one season, split up into cap hits of 16.3 and 18.75.  That’s a horrible deal for us.  The dead cap to move on from him, which is almost a goal of ours, after year 1 is ridiculous.  Who else was going to pay him what we did?  The rest of the league was spending 4-8M on top tier backup/bridge QBs.  Why not offer him UP TO 1yr, 20m… who else is beating that deal?

and this is for a guy who was demoted to being the backup, was sent home from Training Camp so he couldn’t get hurt and thus the team owe him his full salary while they considered their options which ultimately was to agree to a pay cut down to 11M.  Half the reason they were even willing to pay 11M was they were a contender but Trey Lance was looking like a possible bust at moments and he was an insurance policy.  Idk how he was able to be a game manager for only 10 starts after Lance went to IR and turn that play into 3y/73m with the year 2 guarantees.

If we were competing for the playoffs this year Id accept the deal far easier. But this is a rebuilding year and we’re hoping to get our QBotF this year or next.  This signing was made to get enough wins to save McDaniels job long enough that we could draft a QB and thus buy more time for McD as long as we showed some progress as a team and no mutinies occurred in the locker room against him.

we all talk about or here we don’t have the money to sign Jacobs longterm, well 18.75M in dead cap from cutting Jimmy G next year would go quite a ways towards that.

Also, I can’t see a team being willing to trade for him and his 11.25m salary to be their backup.  And I don’t see a world where we get rid of him and he’s still a starter.  What are we going to pay part of his salary on top of the dead cap to get a day 3 pick? Not wise.

McD had to have his guy, I get it.  But we should have structured the deal with far less dead cap year 2 (or signed just a 1 year deal) or just went with Mayfield for around 5-6m at most.  

[NYRaider]

 

[jimkelly02]

I’d like to know what everyone thinks are the probabilities that if we draft Richardson he:

1) ends up being a bust

2) ends up being a franchise QB with limitations that leave Him in the “Top 15” QB Rankings and once his rookie contract were stuck debating if we should resign him to the massive contract that it’d require.

3) ends up being a QB that allows us to compete with teams with elite QBs like Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, etc.

[jimkelly02]

2 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

 

If the Titans are interested in Levis, I think a trade down from 7 to 11 COULD be a wise move.  They’d have to overpay slightly to get their QB so maybe we could get 1.7 and 3.100 or 4.109 for 1.11 and 2.41.

We’d have 11, 38, 41, 70, 100/109 to draft CB, LB, Edge, DT, and OL, in no particular order.  Ideally, we could come away with 5 starters by next year.

[NYRaider]

9 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

I’d like to know what everyone thinks are the probabilities that if we draft Richardson he:

1) ends up being a bust

2) ends up being a franchise QB with limitations that leave Him in the “Top 15” QB Rankings and once his rookie contract were stuck debating if we should resign him to the massive contract that it’d require.

3) ends up being a QB that allows us to compete with teams with elite QBs like Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, etc.

I think he’s the definition of a boom / bust player. He’ll probably either be elite or a complete bust. I don’t really see a scenario where he’s average. 

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, jimkelly02 said:

If the Titans are interested in Levis, I think a trade down from 7 to 11 COULD be a wise move.  They’d have to overpay slightly to get their QB so maybe we could get 1.7 and 3.100 or 4.109 for 1.11 and 2.41.

We’d have 11, 38, 41, 70, 100/109 to draft CB, LB, Edge, DT, and OL, in no particular order.  Ideally, we could come away with 5 starters by next year.

It sounds like the Colts are prepared to take Levis at #4. If you want a QB you basically have to get to #3.

[RaidersAreOne]