NBA Offseason Thread: Durant will remain in Brooklyn

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

The Hornets are at $108.9M with their active roster plus the dead cap for Nicolas Batum.  Add an additional $30.5M for a Bridges' extension and an additional $3.7M for their draft pick cap hold and they're up to $143.1M.  The luxury tax is projected at $149M.  That leaves virtually no flexibility there.

They'd still have access to the entire MLE and minimums though? I'd also imagine that Plumlee's $9M expiring deal won't be hard to move. 

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

Taking on Westbrook for Hayward while also matching Bridges would put them into the luxury tax though, lol.

I believe the one proposal that I've seen was Westbrook for Rozier/Hayward, which would clear an additional ~$4.5M in cap flexibility.  In that scenario, they're not giving up any draft assets, but they're not receiving any since they're getting more cap flexibility in return.

[Sllim Pickens]

Just now, NYRaider said:

Harden still averaged 10.5 assists/8 rebounds last season, so he's still an elite rebounder for the position and a significantly better playmaker than Kyrie. Harden was also dealing with a hammy issue all season and looked out of shape, his production was still top tier in 2020. 

Kyrie has played in 133/236 games in his Brooklyn career, he comes with significant injury risk and character concerns.

They both have risks.  If they are both healthy and playing, they are both top 15 players.  Harden is older and Philly has concerns for signing him long term.  The Nets have the same concern with Kyrie so just swap them.  Philly gets a good player that's got 4-5 years left, the Nets get a good player with 1-2 years left.  Just makes sense since neither team wants to give out the contract the player wants. 

And the games played is moot since Kyrie didnt play because of regulations, not injury.  

[CWood21]

Just now, NYRaider said:

They'd still have access to the entire MLE and minimums though? I'd also imagine that Plumlee's $9M expiring deal won't be hard to move. 

They'd have to use that taxpayer MLE, since the MLE would push them over the luxury tax.  It'd be really close to exceeding the cap apron that it'd be nearly impossible to add any additional salary for an in-season deal.  Again, you're going to have to attach draft picks and/or willing to take back more long-term salary in return.

[NYRaider]

Just now, CWood21 said:

They'd have to use that taxpayer MLE, since the MLE would push them over the luxury tax.  It'd be really close to exceeding the cap apron that it'd be nearly impossible to add any additional salary for an in-season deal.  Again, you're going to have to attach draft picks and/or willing to take back more long-term salary in return.

At $143M though moving Plumlee puts them $13M under the tax and they could free up an additional $7.6M in cap space by just waiving Kelly Oubre since his deal is only partially guaranteed. 

[CWood21]

Just now, NYRaider said:

At $143M though moving Plumlee puts them $13M under the tax and they could free up an additional $7.6M in cap space by just waiving Kelly Oubre since his deal is only partially guaranteed. 

How do you propose to get a team to WILLINGLY take on Plumlee?  And Oubre's contract fully guarantees on the 30th of this month.

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

They both have risks.  If they are both healthy and playing, they are both top 15 players.  Harden is older and Philly has concerns for signing him long term.  The Nets have the same concern with Kyrie so just swap them.  Philly gets a good player that's got 4-5 years left, the Nets get a good player with 1-2 years left.  Just makes sense since neither team wants to give out the contract the player wants. 

And the games played is moot since Kyrie didnt play because of regulations, not injury.  

Morey just came out and gave Harden a ringing endorsement last night saying that they'll get a deal done. The probability that Kyrie bolts after next season is significantly higher than the odds Harden does though. I don't think that the 76ers gave up Simmons, Curry, Drummond and draft picks because they didn't want Harden. 

Kyrie has been one of the most injury prone players in the NBA though he has missed like 50% of the games in his career. There's literally zero chance that Philly trades Harden back to Brooklyn for Kyrie.

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

How do you propose to get a team to WILLINGLY take on Plumlee?  And Oubre's contract fully guarantees on the 30th of this month.

The Blazers, Nets, and a few other teams have trade exceptions that they could absorb Plumlee into. The Nets are likely going to lose Claxton and the Blazers don't have any size behind Nurk on their roster. If they're that concerned with going into the tax wouldn't it make sense to just waive Oubre at the start of free agency? If they don't give Richards/Thor qualifying offers and waive Oubre they'd be at $133M so $16M under the cap even with Bridges max deal.

[NYRaider]

Quote

Tom Moore: #NBA source: The #Sixers “aren’t trading to trim salary to use on non-taxpayer MLE,” which means potential free agent forward PJ Tucker almost surely won’t become a 76er.

 But I thought Philly was going all in to give him 3/$30M

[CWood21]

Just now, NYRaider said:

The Blazers, Nets, and a few other teams have trade exceptions that they could absorb Plumlee into. The Nets are likely going to lose Claxton and the Blazers don't have any size behind Nurk on their roster. If they're that concerned with going into the tax wouldn't it make sense to just waive Oubre at the start of free agency? If they don't give Richards/Thor qualifying offers and waive Oubre they'd be at $133M so $16M under the cap even with Bridges max deal.

Again, if you're one of those teams why would you take Plumlee on without some sort of incentive?  I didn't even take into account any QO.  I only used their guaranteed salaries (assuming Oubre was kept), Batum's dead cap plus a max extension for Bridges, and the 120% cap hit for their FRP.  You waive Oubre, it saves ~$7M which gives them enough space to use the non-tax payers MLE with enough flexibility left over.  But they're still stuck with Hayward's contract next year.  If they flip Hayward into Westbrook, they're not sitting on that $31.5M salary next year.

[NYRaider]

Just now, CWood21 said:

Again, if you're one of those teams why would you take Plumlee on without some sort of incentive?  I didn't even take into account any QO.  I only used their guaranteed salaries (assuming Oubre was kept), Batum's dead cap plus a max extension for Bridges, and the 120% cap hit for their FRP.  You waive Oubre, it saves ~$7M which gives them enough space to use the non-tax payers MLE with enough flexibility left over.  But they're still stuck with Hayward's contract next year.  If they flip Hayward into Westbrook, they're not sitting on that $31.5M salary next year.

If their incentive is to strictly get under the luxury tax then trading Hayward for Westbrook actually works against them. Waiving Oubre and keeping Hayward (who's expiring the next year) makes more sense then to give up significant draft assets or Rozier. 

[CWood21]

Just to put it into perspective, the Jazz traded Derrick Favors last offseason who had 2 years, $20M left on his deal.  It cost the Jazz a top 10 protected FRP in 2024.  That's roughly the cost it'd take to move Plumlee.

[NYRaider]

Just now, CWood21 said:

Just to put it into perspective, the Jazz traded Derrick Favors last offseason who had 2 years, $20M left on his deal.  It cost the Jazz a top 10 protected FRP in 2024.  That's roughly the cost it'd take to move Plumlee.

Way different situations, the Jazz were $10M over the tax after they moved Favors. Keeping him would've cost the team like $22M with luxury tax fees. The Hornets aren't necessarily guaranteed to go into the luxury tax even keeping Plumlee and he only has 1 year on his deal, Favors had 2.

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

If their incentive is to strictly get under the luxury tax then trading Hayward for Westbrook actually works against them. Waiving Oubre and keeping Hayward (who's expiring the next year) makes more sense then to give up significant draft assets or Rozier. 

Lakers are NOT taking on Gordon Hayward's contract without Terry Rozier coming back, and even then that's probably their Plan F or something towards the back.  Westbrook is due $47.1M next year, so the Hornets probably need to at least break even if not shed salary.  Sending out Gordon Hayward and Kelly Oubre and taking back Westbrook would add an additional $4.4M in salary so that's probably not likely, but it does save Gordon Hayward's $31.5M in 2023-24 season.  Adding Mason Plumlee would mean the Lakers are eating an additional $4.7M which is again probably a non-starter.  If the Hornets waive Oubre, they're going to be looking at $135.5M which is enough cap flexibility to use the non-taxpayer MLE.  So the question becomes, are the Hornets better off dumping Gordon Hayward's additional year or simply dipping far enough below to create flexibility by waiving Oubre.

[CWood21]

3 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Way different situations, the Jazz were $10M over the tax after they moved Favors. Keeping him would've cost the team like $22M with luxury tax fees. The Hornets aren't necessarily guaranteed to go into the luxury tax even keeping Plumlee and he only has 1 year on his deal, Favors had 2.

As I already showed you earlier, the Hornets are already pushing the luxury tax with a Bridges' extension and not doing anything with Plumlee or Oubre.  They won't have the cap flexibility to use the non-tax payer MLE, so they'll be stuck using the taxpayer MLE.  And they're still straddled with Hayward's contract next year.