Dcash4 Posted July 5, 2023 Share Posted July 5, 2023 41 minutes ago, warfelg said: So it’s also relevant that he gets targeted on those with separation and fails to get YAC, correct? It is, and so is the context of the routes. 40.5% of his routes came back to the football or towards the sideline. His Weekly routes run when target looks like this: Seriously...what do you want him to do with that? And then this: And these: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/diontae-johnson/JOH000017/2022/3/route https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/2022/diontae-johnson/JOH000017/2022/12/route https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/2022/diontae-johnson/JOH000017/2022/10/route https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/2022/diontae-johnson/JOH000017/2022/1/route https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/2022/diontae-johnson/JOH000017/2022/1/route His ability to separate is still good, but if you are asking him to separate towards the sideline or back to the football, you are going to neuter your chances at YAC. He was 8th in the NFL in YAC the year before: The entire team lacked YAC...maybe it wasn't just DJ? Look at this comparison for us and then Kelce and JuJu. Neither of those guys are Devin Hesters. 7 hours ago, Dcash4 said: We were 29th in the league in YAC as a team and 32nd in YAC per completion. We were 12th and 25th in 2021, 8th and 19th in 2020, and 22nd and 10th the year we had Mason/Duck at the helm. DJ also tied for 11th in broken tackles on receptions. 6th for wide receivers. 8th in Broken tackle rate in receivers. I do not care that much about his YAC ability. The decline was offensive/QB driven and it shows every meaningful place. You are letting 2-3 plays from last year with a dude in a dumpster fire of an environment for play making when we have 3 years of evidence of him not being a bad YAC guy. 1 hour ago, warfelg said: I mean it’s a little bit of both but DJ struggled with this under Fitchner with Ben and other QBs too. Heck he’s only had 10 40+ yard plays in his career. And last year he had none in the Canada stunted offense. The two years prior he had 4 and his rookie year he had 2. QBs through those years: Ghost of Ben, Mason/Duck, and rookie Kenny. Not exactly world burners throwing downfield. Davante Adams on a year to year, 7 (!!), 4, 5, 5, 3, 4, 1, 1, Diggs: 6, 4, 5, 8, 2, 3, 3, 1 Jamarr Chase last year had 3 after an 8 spot his rookie year. Justin Jefferson: 6, 5, 4 These dudes are in a different tier than DJ, yet his production is in a similar space in terms of 40+ plays. You really need to remember the type of offense we have been trying to play these last couple of years. We can't complain about being a dink and dunk team and then also get mad at guys who aren't breaking big plays. DJ is no worse for wear in 40+ department in most of his years. Last year is a clear outlier. The number you should harp on is the 20+. That's where the offense we are playing really stunts him -- but as I showed before in those clips.... he is there for them. That's the area this offense needs to unlock. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted July 5, 2023 Author Share Posted July 5, 2023 (edited) Sorry not reading all of that blaming everyone else and not being able to say he’s also part of the problem. Kinda exhausting that it’s always coming back to Canada and Kenny, that there can’t be any accountability for anyone else. It’s funny that you use one tweet showing his 2021 v 2022 YAC dropping…that had the same routes and same OC. At worse a slight downgrade at QB but somewhat an upgrade. DJ is just a damn super inconsistent WR and some of that is on him. Period. This article does a fair job in assessing the Kenny/Ben angle impact on the production while also highlighting that he didn’t help himself: https://www.dkpittsburghsports.com/2023/06/18/steelers-film-room-diontae-johnson-2022-season-anything-but-step-back-analysis-nfl-cah He uses YAC/R vs xYAC/R to make his point so here’s something that should be expanded. The YAC/R v xYAC/R for other Steelers: (next Gen stats only does 45+ targets so this is all they had) Pickens 2.4 actual vs 1.8 expected Freiermuth 4.7 actual vs 3.4 expected DJs career so far with YAC/R v xYAC/R: 2019: 5.1 YAC/R to 4.3 xYAC/R 2020: 4.6 YAC/R to 4.3 xYAC/R 2021: 5.1 YAC/R to 5.1 xYAC/R 2022: 2.6 YAC/R to 2.7 xYAC/R He’s trending in the wrong direction with it. He’s not getting better at the part he can control. And this does a fair job of pointing out the issues DJ has in his control: https://steelersdepot.com/2023/06/scouting-report-the-pros-and-cons-of-wr-diontae-johnson/ Also something not shocking that’s used as a knock: using your best route runner to run routes that get him open? Like I would hate to see Pickens running a bunch of those comebacks (And ARII this year) because that’s not their skill set as a WR. Could Johnson be sent on more sluggos, slants, deep ins? Sure. I’m not even arguing any of that anyways. But when he takes a crossing or drag route where he gets 5 yards of separation and can’t turn it into a 1st down or a 8 yard pickup on a 2 yard pass it’s not great. Hell half the time he just needs to plant and go and he doesn’t do that. you can see that in his Next Gen charts. Very little advancement after the catch even on routes that should do it. Because I tell you what. When teams press, he gets open, but they are confident in getting him down anyways the bigger plays won’t be there. But if he can just get what he can with the opportunities then DBs will be forced to back off. That’s why other guys who are sudden and good route runners don’t get pressed as much. It’s too risky to let them get past. And that has nothing to do with the OC or QB, that part is on the player. As I’ve said numerous times in the past: this isn’t an all one or the other thing. It’s all part of the package. Random interesting observations with receptionperception: AJ Brown runs a huge number of comebacks and slants. In fact it’s almost 50% of his route tree and he’s amazing in YAC/R v xYAC/R. The curl is actually 1 of DJ’s 4 best routes (taking screens out). They go in order: Dig, Curl, Out, Slant. His most common routes in order are: Nine, Curl, Slant, Out. Deebo Samuels route tree is basically 3 routes: Screen, Slant, Dig; but his best routes (again taking out screen) are in order Flat, Dig, Post. In fact his teammate Brandon Aiyuk is 100% success rate but runs it 3.7% of the time. Most impressive: Terry McLaurin’s most used routes are his lowest success rate routes. Stefon Diggs and Diontae Johnson’s route percentage trees are almost identical. DJ runs more outs, nines, and comebacks; Diggs more flats, corners, and slants. So I think this makes for a more fair comparison. Diggs has an xYAC/R of 3.4 and gets a YAC/R of 4.1. Tee Higgins route percentage is close to DJs as well with more slants and digs, and DJ does more comebacks and posts. Higgins had a xYAC/R if 3.2 while having a YAC/R of 3.9. Im curious on Tyler Locketts 2022 info hitting because he’s one of the biggest negatives at -0.9. Chris Olave has a similar -0.2 to DJ but runs a lot more outs, curls, and corners than DJ. Edited July 6, 2023 by warfelg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted July 6, 2023 Share Posted July 6, 2023 (edited) On 7/5/2023 at 6:05 PM, warfelg said: Kinda exhausting that it’s always coming back to Canada and Kenny, that there can’t be any accountability for anyone else. Can I just turn this one around and swap out Canada and Kenny with Diontae Johnson for you, then? I've never said Diontae isn't a PART of it. In fact, I said.... On 7/4/2023 at 12:11 PM, Dcash4 said: It’s not a DJ thing…he is pretty down on the list in terms of lack of big plays in the offense. So I never have once said he doesn't have his own flaws, but you are really hanging on this YAC thing like you want any receiver to be Hester or Harvin -- and I just don't get it. Diontae is comparable in YAC the prior 3 years with other top guys despite playing in an offense that neuters it. Your comparing him to slot guys now, which is confusing. Have you sorted the xYAC chart highest to lowest? Ask yourself a question as to why TE's, slots, and Shannahan/Reid guys dominate the top of the list. You bring up AJ Brown, but one look at his chart shows he does his YAC damage in the MOF or from the slot. Why is that? You are right, Diggs is a good comparison. Did you check his xYAC differential the two years prior? 0.2 and 0.1. The year before in Minnesota it was back up to .9. Biggest changes? Well, those two middle years he had his lower ADOT and YBC/r of the last four years. Last year with after Allen's arm injury that destroyed his short area accuracy they threw downfield more and the year in Minny he was a big time deep threat. It's amazing the way that you use players can affect their outcomes. 24% of Diggs snaps came out of the slot last year (remember that trend above for the guys over expectation for YAC?)....Diontae.....9%. Nine. In 2019 when his over expectation nearly reached a yard, his YBC/r was 13.1. THIRTEEN! You have to add two years of DJs number to get there. There are less defenders the further you get down the field. Asking a guy to catch a 3 yard hitch and being mad he doesn't break one is very different than someone catching a 15 yard dig and working a 1 on 1 or 2 on 1 for more yards. These guys who are quality route runners -- that's where they make their money in YAC. Downfield, MOF. The area the Steelers offense avoids like it's diseased. Look at these charts with the players Biggest YAC, what's the common denominators? https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/stefon-diggs/DIG218895/2022/5/routehttps://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/a.j.-brown/BRO413223/2022/1/routehttps://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/a.j.-brown/BRO413223/2022/15/routehttps://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/davante-adams/ADA218591/2022/10/routehttps://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/davante-adams/ADA218591/2022/9/routehttps://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/davante-adams/ADA218591/2022/1/route Most damage post-catch being done from the slot, past 10 yards, or in the MOF? So places DJ doesn't align and spots on the field we don't target. And that's not new to last year. So let's make the end simple and go back to the question that was asked. Do you still think it's DJ at the top of the hit list for lack of big plays? I don't understand the obsession with YAC, but hey -- to each their own. But it leads into what I believe is the top issue -- offensive system, play caller, and QBs. Those things IMO, come much higher than DJs mind boggling brain issues. One of the articles you shared even alludes to that: Quote Perhaps the more significant reason for the drop in production after the catch was the types of routes Johnson ran most often Needless to say, there were far too many routes kept Johnson away from the middle of the field. And that's a shame because Johnson can do the most damage after the catch on slants and drags rather than running curls and outs But, that limits his ability to create yards after the catch. It's really difficult to have a positive YAC/R or xYAC/R when a large chunk of the routes run bring Johnson's momentum back toward the line of scrimmage You looked at the YAC v xYAC* and wondered why DJ sucks, but I'm more wondering why our top 2 receivers ended up on the bottom 7 of that list after Johnson was in the top 15 the year before. Pickens was tied for worst xYPC with AJ Green. Because he gained a half yard more than expected isn't a reason to be excited because hey, it was better than DJ! It's a reason to be concerned.... If you think this is all because he isn't as good after the catch, fine. Not sure what you will really want there from X receivers in the league outside of like Tyreek Hill. But I really do not think there is anything backing the idea that he is the biggest reason because he ran backwards 4 times last year. I get it, it was very frustrating, but that's not the offenses biggest issue creating chunks. Edited July 7, 2023 by Dcash4 *edited for accuracy without contextual change Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted July 6, 2023 Author Share Posted July 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Dcash4 said: You looked at the xYAC yards and wondered why DJ sucks, but I'm more wondering why our top 2 receivers ended up on the bottom 7 of that list after Johnson was in the top 15 the year before. Pickens was tied for worst xYPC with AJ Green. Because he gained a half yard more than expected isn't a reason to be excited because hey, it was better than DJ! It's a reason to be concerned.... Not looking at xYAC, looking at YAC v xYAC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August4th Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 (edited) TC is just 3 weeks away! can't wait to see reports on practices on twitter(hopefully Musk hasn't completely destroyed it by then) Edited July 7, 2023 by August4th 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben07MVP Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 1 hour ago, August4th said: TC is just 3 weeks away! can't wait to see reports on practices on twitter(hopefully Musk hasn't completely destroyed it by then) Excited to get some action back on the site. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 If Tanner Muse could turn into a James Farrior situation, that would really make me feel better about the defense. The more I think about our ILBs, the more I’m worried. I think Holcomb is going to be fine, but the guys next to him don’t inspire a lot of confidence. Roberts is a liability on defense, but a potentially very good ST player. Robinson is right now in the same boat. He could develop, but right now he’s not a starter. Muse looks like a All-Pro physically, but has never shown much. Hopefully he fits our defense and our staff can unlock something in him. Honestly, I wonder if the plan is to play Holcomb and Neal together at ILB on a lot of snaps? Holcomb and Roberts/Robinson on run downs, Holcomb and Neal on pass downs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August4th Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 I took having good to elite ILB groups for granted lol I miss the farrior/foote tandem or shazier/williams 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted July 7, 2023 Author Share Posted July 7, 2023 1 hour ago, MOSteelers56 said: If Tanner Muse could turn into a James Farrior situation, that would really make me feel better about the defense. The more I think about our ILBs, the more I’m worried. I think Holcomb is going to be fine, but the guys next to him don’t inspire a lot of confidence. Roberts is a liability on defense, but a potentially very good ST player. Robinson is right now in the same boat. He could develop, but right now he’s not a starter. Muse looks like a All-Pro physically, but has never shown much. Hopefully he fits our defense and our staff can unlock something in him. Honestly, I wonder if the plan is to play Holcomb and Neal together at ILB on a lot of snaps? Holcomb and Roberts/Robinson on run downs, Holcomb and Neal on pass downs? I’m starting to think that the other ILBs are run down only guys and we’ll go 3-3 in passing downs. Makes it a whole lot less predictable who’s rushing and who’s dropping. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, warfelg said: I’m starting to think that the other ILBs are run down only guys and we’ll go 3-3 in passing downs. Makes it a whole lot less predictable who’s rushing and who’s dropping. What does a 3-3 look like in your mind? Cam-Benton-Larry Highsmith- Watt- Golden Or is Holcomb in there instead of Golden? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted July 7, 2023 Author Share Posted July 7, 2023 41 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said: What does a 3-3 look like in your mind? Cam-Benton-Larry Highsmith- Watt- Golden Or is Holcomb in there instead of Golden? Cam-Big Fen-Larry/Leal Highsmith - Holcomb - Watt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rivers Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 what is going on with Highsmith and the new contract? Now I am reading he is the topic of trade conversations if that matters. I thought the deal would have been done by now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben07MVP Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 21 hours ago, warfelg said: Cam-Big Fen-Larry/Leal Highsmith - Holcomb - Watt Neal being the extra “DB” in this scenario I’m assuming? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted July 8, 2023 Author Share Posted July 8, 2023 27 minutes ago, bigben07MVP said: Neal being the extra “DB” in this scenario I’m assuming? Could be any combo of guys. Souls be Neal on a run down. Could go Peterson on pass downs. Could even go Trice for size and speed. Heck even put Lil Peez in there to confuse teams. Random thought so I don’t double post: Anyone ever get bothered in this time of offseason when certain teammates workout together and others do their own thing? We’ve seen video since Mini-camp of P and P (Pickett and Pickens), Pickett and ARII (I think Warren was there too). I know Muth, Wash, and BayHey got with Pickett at one time. Kinda worried for some OL that they aren’t getting work together, some skill guys (CA3, DJ, Najee). On the flip side I’ve heard all the DBs got together. The DL. Than the edge guys. But ILBers didn’t do anything. I get so on the fence about it. Like I don’t mind some guys working out away from others. But I wish DJ would spend less time with the route running/footwork coach (because we know he can do that) and more time with KP. I with Najee would get together with his OL to work on blitz pickup, screens, and tells on zone runs. You always hear of these better offenses doing stuff as groups away from the team unprompted. You hear about constant texting or video study. There was a ton of that in the Killer B era but not so much lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted July 8, 2023 Author Share Posted July 8, 2023 Also I heard most the starting OL was at the OL Masterminds Summit this week. I think that’s the first time that’s happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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