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State of the Steelers


warfelg

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14 minutes ago, jebrick said:

SF would be lucky to get a conditional 5th for him at this point.  Might as well hold on and get a comp 3rd.

will he hold out ? If so, for how long?

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34 minutes ago, jebrick said:

SF would be lucky to get a conditional 5th for him at this point.  Might as well hold on and get a comp 3rd.

Surely there's a good bit of value in sending a 3rd now and avoiding the competition when he's a FA next year. Be interesting to see what Khan decides to do.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, BradfordSteeler said:

Surely there's a good bit of value in sending a 3rd now and avoiding the competition when he's a FA next year. Be interesting to see what Khan decides to do.

That’s what would push it to a 2 and a conditional pick. I see an “upsized” Ridley package. 

Edited by warfelg
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BradfordSteeler said:

Surely there's a good bit of value in sending a 3rd now and avoiding the competition when he's a FA next year. Be interesting to see what Khan decides to do.

Then you are stuck trying to make that $35+M /year deal or you are out the pick for a 1 year rental.  Why send a day 2 pick?  Trading for him is no guarantee you will sign him. 

Edited by jebrick
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Just now, jebrick said:

Then you are stuck trying to make that $35+M /year deal or you are out the pick for a 1 year rental.  Why send a day 2 pick?  Trading for him is no guarantee you will sign him. 

I don't see any way that any team trades for him without a deal in place.

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1 hour ago, BradfordSteeler said:

Surely there's a good bit of value in sending a 3rd now and avoiding the competition when he's a FA next year. Be interesting to see what Khan decides to do.

For Aiyuk as a player, I think there is tremendous value in a day 1 or 2+ to get him. I would be hesitant to do so on a team that doesn't have a QB on roster in 2025, however. 

Those picks for us are tremendously valuable until we have any sort of long term outlook at the QB position. 

Maybe that's Wilson, maybe it's Fields, maybe it's Prescott...but until we can eliminate that "maybe" and have a 2-3 year outlook at the position, I'm not sure I would go after Aiyuk on a trade unless we were clearly the winners on the value. 

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2 hours ago, AFF said:

They’re just going to sign Aiyuk next year to a 4/$120 mill deal…😉

if he hits UFA, what are people here expecting his deal to be after Chase and a few others get their deals done? The longer this goes on, the more the WR will get , so where does it end? 

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7 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

if he hits UFA, what are people here expecting his deal to be after Chase and a few others get their deals done? The longer this goes on, the more the WR will get , so where does it end? 

While some shifts happen like WR making more of the cap now vs RB compared to a number of years ago, most of the increases in contracts trend with the cap increases. I wish contracts were more regularly reported as % of cap used or something similar.

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39 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

if he hits UFA, what are people here expecting his deal to be after Chase and a few others get their deals done? The longer this goes on, the more the WR will get , so where does it end? 

I would not put him on the same tier as Chase or Jefferson.  Perhaps not even Higgens.  That will not stop him from ASKING for $35+M /year.

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11 minutes ago, jebrick said:

I would not put him on the same tier as Chase or Jefferson.  Perhaps not even Higgens.  That will not stop him from ASKING for $35+M /year.

35M/year next year will essentially be less money than 35M/year this year though. Contracts go up with the cap pretty regularly. If the cap goes up another 20-25M (30M increase this year), that 35M next year is about equivalent to 32.5-31.9M this year.

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Eventually the WR market will slow down(to an extent)…but 1 thing is happening next year…they’re signing some WR to a $25+ mill contract next offseason…wether it’s Pickens or Aiyuk or somebody else.

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Just because I was curious:

2024 - WR1 is 14% of the cap

2019 - WR1 is 12% of the cap

2014 - WR1 is 13% of the cap

2011 - WR1 is 13% of the cap

WR10 in that time has gone from 7% to 10% of the cap. 

Top of the WR market hasn’t really gone up. The middle has come up some. So Hills AAV this year is the same hit as Larry Fitzgeralds in 2011. And Jefferson’s contract next year in AAV is projected to be 14% of the cap. 

In the end the dollar amount has gone up, the percent of the cap is flat. The big change is really on the GTD money percent in these record setting deals

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